Managing infrastructure transitions : a complex adaptive systems perspective

Engineering assets such as roads, rail, bridges and other forms of public works are vital to the effective functioning of societies {Herder, 2006 #128}. Proficient provision of this physical infrastructure is therefore one of the key activities of government {Lædre, 2006 #123}. In order to ensure engineering assets are procured and maintained on behalf of citizens, government needs to devise the appropriate policy and institutional architecture for this purpose. The changing institutional arrangements around the procurement of engineering assets are the focus of this paper. The paper describes and analyses the transition to new, more collaborative forms of procurement arrangements which are becoming increasingly prevalent in Australia and other OECD countries. Such fundamental shifts from competitive to more collaborative approaches to project governance can be viewed as a major transition in procurement system arrangements. In many ways such changes mirror the shift from New Public Management, with its emphasis on the use of market mechanisms to achieve efficiencies {Hood, 1991 #166}, towards more collaborative approaches to service delivery, such as those under network governance arrangements {Keast, 2007 #925}. However, just as traditional forms of procurement in a market context resulted in unexpected outcomes for industry, such as a fragmented industry afflicted by chronic litigation {Dubois, 2002 #9}, the change to more collaborative forms of procurement is unlikely to be a panacea to the problems of procurement, and may well also have unintended consequences. This paper argues that perspectives from complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory can contribute to the theory and practice of managing system transitions. In particular the concept of emergence provides a key theoretical construct to understand the aggregate effect that individual project governance arrangements can have upon the structure of specific industries, which in turn impact individual projects. Emergence is understood here as the macro structure that emerges out of the interaction of agents in the system {Holland, 1998 #100; Tang, 2006 #51}.

The correlation of pore morphology, interconnectivity and physical properties of 3D ceramic scaffolds with bone ingrowth

In the design of tissue engineering scaffolds, design parameters including pore size, shape and interconnectivity, mechanical properties and transport properties should be optimized to maximize successful inducement of bone ingrowth. In this paper we describe a 3D micro-CT and pore partitioning study to derive pore scale parameters including pore radius distribution, accessible radius, throat radius, and connectivity over the pore space of the tissue engineered constructs. These pore scale descriptors are correlated to bone ingrowth into the scaffolds. Quantitative and visual comparisons show a strong correlation between the local accessible pore radius and bone ingrowth; for well connected samples a cutoff accessible pore radius of approximately 100 microM is observed for ingrowth. The elastic properties of different types of scaffolds are simulated and can be described by standard cellular solids theory: (E/E(0))=(rho/rho(s))(n). Hydraulic conductance and diffusive properties are calculated; results are consistent with the concept of a threshold conductance for bone ingrowth. Simple simulations of local flow velocity and local shear stress show no correlation to in vivo bone ingrowth patterns. These results demonstrate a potential for 3D imaging and analysis to define relevant pore scale morphological and physical properties within scaffolds and to provide evidence for correlations between pore scale descriptors, physical properties and bone ingrowth.

The problem of measurement indeterminacy in complex neurobiological movement systems

In the study of complex neurobiological movement systems, measurement indeterminacy has typically been overcome by imposing artificial modelling constraints to reduce the number of unknowns (e.g., reducing all muscle, bone and ligament forces crossing a joint to a single vector). However, this approach prevents human movement scientists from investigating more fully the role, functionality and ubiquity of coordinative structures or functional motor synergies. Advancements in measurement methods and analysis techniques are required if the contribution of individual component parts or degrees of freedom of these task-specific structural units is to be established, thereby effectively solving the indeterminacy problem by reducing the number of unknowns. A further benefit of establishing more of the unknowns is that human movement scientists will be able to gain greater insight into ubiquitous processes of physical self-organising that underpin the formation of coordinative structures and the confluence of organismic, environmental and task constraints that determine the exact morphology of these special-purpose devices.

Early childhood education for sustainability : why it matters, what it is, and how whole centre action research and systems thinking can help

The global financial crisis, global pandemics, global warming and peak oil are indicative of a world facing major environmental, social and economic problems. At the same time, world population continues to rise and global inequalities deepen. Children are the most vulnerable to the impacts of unsustainable living with specific harms arising because of their physical and cognitive vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, children do not have to be victims in the face of these challenges. Education, including early childhood education, has an important role to in building resilience and capabilities in children that equip them as active and informed citizens now and in the future and who are capable of contributing to healthy and sustainable ways of living. Drawing on educational change literature, action research, education for sustainability, health promotion and systems theory, this paper outlines three strategies that can help reorient early childhood education towards sustainability. One strategy is the adoption of whole centre approaches to sustainability and education for sustainability. This means working across the whole of a centre’s operations – curriculum and pedagogy, physical and social environments, its partnerships and community connections. The second strategy – applied in conjunction with the first – is the use of action research to investigate the early childhood setting and to create the desired changes. The third strategy is the adoption of systems thinking as a way of leveraging support and momentum for change so that education for sustainability goes beyond the initiatives of individual teachers and centres, and becomes a systems-wide imperative.

Physical and environmental determinants

This chapter describes physical and environmental determinants of the health of Australians, providing a background to the development of successful public health activity. Health determinants are the biomedical, genetic, behavioural, socio-economic and environmental factors that impact on health and wellbeing. These determinants can be influenced by interventions and by resources and systems (AIHW 2006). Many factors combine to affect the health of individuals and communities. People’s circumstances and the environment determine whether the population is healthy or not. Factors such as where people live, the state of their environment, genetics, their education level and income, and their relationships with friends and family, all are likely to impact on their health. The determinants of population health reflect the context of people’s lives; however, people are very unlikely to be able to control many of these determinants (WHO 2007). This chapter and Chapter 6 illustrate how various determinants can relate to, and influence other determinants, as well as health and wellbeing. We believe it is particularly important to provide an understanding of determinants and their relationship to health and illness in order to provide a structure in which a broader conceptualisation of health can be placed. Determinants of health do not exist in isolation from one another. More frequently they work together in a complex system. What is clear to anyone who works in public health is that many factors impact on the health and wellbeing of people. For example, in the next chapter we discuss factors such as living and working conditions, social support, ethnicity and class, income, housing, work stress and the impact of education on the length and quality of people’s lives. In 1974, the influential ‘Lalonde Report’ (Lalonde 1974) described key factors that impact on health status. These factors included lifestyle, environment, human biology and health services. Taking a population health approach builds on the Lalonde Report, and recognises that a range of factors, such as living and working conditions and the distribution of wealth in society, interact to determine the health status of a population. Tackling health determinants has great potential to reduce the burden of disease and promote the health of the general population. In summary, we understand very clearly now that health is determined by the complex interactions between individual characteristics, social and economic factors and physical environments; the entire range of factors that impact on health must be addressed if we are to make significant gains in population health, and focussing interventions on the health of the population or significant sub-populations can achieve important health gains. In 2007, the Australian Government included in the list of National Health Priority Areas the following health issues: cancer control, injury prevention and control, cardiovascular health, diabetes mellitus, mental health, asthma, and arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions. The National Health Priority Areas set the agenda for the Commonwealth, States and Territories, Local Governments and not-for-profit organisations to place attention on those areas considered to be the major foci for action. Many of these health issues are discussed in this chapter and the following chapter.

The patentability of non-physical inventions : lessons from the United States

Patent systems around the world are being pressed to recognise and protect challengingly new and exciting subject matter in order to keep pace with the rapid technological advancement of our age and the fact we are moving into the era of the ‘knowledge economy’. This rapid development and pressure to expand the bounds of what has traditionally been recognised as patentable subject matter has created uncertainty regarding what it is that the patent system is actually supposed to protect. Among other things, the patent system has had to contend with uncertainty surrounding claims to horticultural and agricultural methods, artificial living micro-organisms, methods of treating the human body, computer software and business methods. The contentious issue of the moment is one at whose heart lies the important distinction between what is a mere abstract idea and what is properly an invention deserving of the monopoly protection afforded by a patent. That question is whether purely intangible inventions, being methods that do not involve a physical aspect or effect or cause a physical transformation of matter, constitute patentable subject matter. This paper goes some way to addressing these uncertainties by considering how the Australian approach to the question can be informed by developments arising in the United States of America, and canvassing some of the possible lessons we in Australia might learn from the approaches taken thus far in the United States.

Analysis of distrubances in large interconnected power systems

World economies increasingly demand reliable and economical power supply and distribution. To achieve this aim the majority of power systems are becoming interconnected, with several power utilities supplying the one large network. One problem that occurs in a large interconnected power system is the regular occurrence of system disturbances which can result in the creation of intra-area oscillating modes. These modes can be regarded as the transient responses of the power system to excitation, which are generally characterised as decaying sinusoids. For a power system operating ideally these transient responses would ideally would have a “ring-down” time of 10-15 seconds. Sometimes equipment failures disturb the ideal operation of power systems and oscillating modes with ring-down times greater than 15 seconds arise. The larger settling times associated with such “poorly damped” modes cause substantial power flows between generation nodes, resulting in significant physical stresses on the power distribution system. If these modes are not just poorly damped but “negatively damped”, catastrophic failures of the system can occur. To ensure system stability and security of large power systems, the potentially dangerous oscillating modes generated from disturbances (such as equipment failure) must be quickly identified. The power utility must then apply appropriate damping control strategies. In power system monitoring there exist two facets of critical interest. The first is the estimation of modal parameters for a power system in normal, stable, operation. The second is the rapid detection of any substantial changes to this normal, stable operation (because of equipment breakdown for example). Most work to date has concentrated on the first of these two facets, i.e. on modal parameter estimation. Numerous modal parameter estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented, but all have limitations [1-13]. One of the key limitations of all existing parameter estimation methods is the fact that they require very long data records to provide accurate parameter estimates. This is a particularly significant problem after a sudden detrimental change in damping. One simply cannot afford to wait long enough to collect the large amounts of data required for existing parameter estimators. Motivated by this gap in the current body of knowledge and practice, the research reported in this thesis focuses heavily on rapid detection of changes (i.e. on the second facet mentioned above). This thesis reports on a number of new algorithms which can rapidly flag whether or not there has been a detrimental change to a stable operating system. It will be seen that the new algorithms enable sudden modal changes to be detected within quite short time frames (typically about 1 minute), using data from power systems in normal operation. The new methods reported in this thesis are summarised below. The Energy Based Detector (EBD): The rationale for this method is that the modal disturbance energy is greater for lightly damped modes than it is for heavily damped modes (because the latter decay more rapidly). Sudden changes in modal energy, then, imply sudden changes in modal damping. Because the method relies on data from power systems in normal operation, the modal disturbances are random. Accordingly, the disturbance energy is modelled as a random process (with the parameters of the model being determined from the power system under consideration). A threshold is then set based on the statistical model. The energy method is very simple to implement and is computationally efficient. It is, however, only able to determine whether or not a sudden modal deterioration has occurred; it cannot identify which mode has deteriorated. For this reason the method is particularly well suited to smaller interconnected power systems that involve only a single mode. Optimal Individual Mode Detector (OIMD): As discussed in the previous paragraph, the energy detector can only determine whether or not a change has occurred; it cannot flag which mode is responsible for the deterioration. The OIMD seeks to address this shortcoming. It uses optimal detection theory to test for sudden changes in individual modes. In practice, one can have an OIMD operating for all modes within a system, so that changes in any of the modes can be detected. Like the energy detector, the OIMD is based on a statistical model and a subsequently derived threshold test. The Kalman Innovation Detector (KID): This detector is an alternative to the OIMD. Unlike the OIMD, however, it does not explicitly monitor individual modes. Rather it relies on a key property of a Kalman filter, namely that the Kalman innovation (the difference between the estimated and observed outputs) is white as long as the Kalman filter model is valid. A Kalman filter model is set to represent a particular power system. If some event in the power system (such as equipment failure) causes a sudden change to the power system, the Kalman model will no longer be valid and the innovation will no longer be white. Furthermore, if there is a detrimental system change, the innovation spectrum will display strong peaks in the spectrum at frequency locations associated with changes. Hence the innovation spectrum can be monitored to both set-off an “alarm” when a change occurs and to identify which modal frequency has given rise to the change. The threshold for alarming is based on the simple Chi-Squared PDF for a normalised white noise spectrum [14, 15]. While the method can identify the mode which has deteriorated, it does not necessarily indicate whether there has been a frequency or damping change. The PPM discussed next can monitor frequency changes and so can provide some discrimination in this regard. The Polynomial Phase Method (PPM): In [16] the cubic phase (CP) function was introduced as a tool for revealing frequency related spectral changes. This thesis extends the cubic phase function to a generalised class of polynomial phase functions which can reveal frequency related spectral changes in power systems. A statistical analysis of the technique is performed. When applied to power system analysis, the PPM can provide knowledge of sudden shifts in frequency through both the new frequency estimate and the polynomial phase coefficient information. This knowledge can be then cross-referenced with other detection methods to provide improved detection benchmarks.

A process for the management of physical infrastructure

Physical infrastructure assets are important components of our society and our economy. They are usually designed to last for many years, are expected to be heavily used during their lifetime, carry considerable load, and are exposed to the natural environment. They are also normally major structures, and therefore present a heavy investment, requiring constant management over their life cycle to ensure that they perform as required by their owners and users. Given a complex and varied infrastructure life cycle, constraints on available resources, and continuing requirements for effectiveness and efficiency, good management of infrastructure is important. While there is often no one best management approach, the choice of options is improved by better identification and analysis of the issues, by the ability to prioritise objectives, and by a scientific approach to the analysis process. The abilities to better understand the effect of inputs in the infrastructure life cycle on results, to minimise uncertainty, and to better evaluate the effect of decisions in a complex environment, are important in allocating scarce resources and making sound decisions. Through the development of an infrastructure management modelling and analysis methodology, this thesis provides a process that assists the infrastructure manager in the analysis, prioritisation and decision making process. This is achieved through the use of practical, relatively simple tools, integrated in a modular flexible framework that aims to provide an understanding of the interactions and issues in the infrastructure management process. The methodology uses a combination of flowcharting and analysis techniques. It first charts the infrastructure management process and its underlying infrastructure life cycle through the time interaction diagram, a graphical flowcharting methodology that is an extension of methodologies for modelling data flows in information systems. This process divides the infrastructure management process over time into self contained modules that are based on a particular set of activities, the information flows between which are defined by the interfaces and relationships between them. The modular approach also permits more detailed analysis, or aggregation, as the case may be. It also forms the basis of ext~nding the infrastructure modelling and analysis process to infrastructure networks, through using individual infrastructure assets and their related projects as the basis of the network analysis process. It is recognised that the infrastructure manager is required to meet, and balance, a number of different objectives, and therefore a number of high level outcome goals for the infrastructure management process have been developed, based on common purpose or measurement scales. These goals form the basis of classifYing the larger set of multiple objectives for analysis purposes. A two stage approach that rationalises then weights objectives, using a paired comparison process, ensures that the objectives required to be met are both kept to the minimum number required and are fairly weighted. Qualitative variables are incorporated into the weighting and scoring process, utility functions being proposed where there is risk, or a trade-off situation applies. Variability is considered important in the infrastructure life cycle, the approach used being based on analytical principles but incorporating randomness in variables where required. The modular design of the process permits alternative processes to be used within particular modules, if this is considered a more appropriate way of analysis, provided boundary conditions and requirements for linkages to other modules, are met. Development and use of the methodology has highlighted a number of infrastructure life cycle issues, including data and information aspects, and consequences of change over the life cycle, as well as variability and the other matters discussed above. It has also highlighted the requirement to use judgment where required, and for organisations that own and manage infrastructure to retain intellectual knowledge regarding that infrastructure. It is considered that the methodology discussed in this thesis, which to the author's knowledge has not been developed elsewhere, may be used for the analysis of alternatives, planning, prioritisation of a number of projects, and identification of the principal issues in the infrastructure life cycle.

Quantum theory beyond the physical : information in context

Measures and theories of information abound, but there are few formalised methods for treating the contextuality that can manifest in different information systems. Quantum theory provides one possible formalism for treating information in context. This paper introduces a quantum-like model of the human mental lexicon, and shows one set of recent experimental data suggesting that concept combinations can indeed behave non-separably. There is some reason to believe that the human mental lexicon displays entanglement.

Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

Linking the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the Compendium of Physical Activities : methods and rationale

Background: The 2003 Bureau of Labor Statistics American Time Use Survey (ATUS) contains 438 distinct primary activity variables that can be analyzed with regard to how time is spent by Americans. The Compendium of Physical Activities is used to code physical activities derived from various surveys, logs, diaries, etc to facilitate comparison of coded intensity levels across studies. ------ ----- Methods: This paper describes the methods, challenges, and rationale for linking Compendium estimates of physical activity intensity (METs, metabolic equivalents) with all activities reported in the 2003 ATUS. ----- ----- Results: The assigned ATUS intensity levels are not intended to compute the energy costs of physical activity in individuals. Instead, they are intended to be used to identify time spent in activities broadly classified by type and intensity. This function will complement public health surveillance systems and aid in policy and health-promotion activities. For example, at least one of the future projects of this process is the descriptive epidemiology of time spent in common physical activity intensity categories. ----- ----- Conclusions: The process of metabolic coding of the ATUS by linking it with the Compendium of Physical Activities can make important contributions to our understanding of Americans’ time spent in health-related physical activity.

School-based strategies to address cyber bullying

Bullying and victimisation among school age children is recognised as a major public health problem. The Australian Covert Bullying Prevalence Study (ACBPS) reports that just over one quarter (27%) of school students aged 8 to 14 years were bullied and 9% bullied others on a frequent basis (every few weeks or more often) (Cross et al., 2009). Bullying is associated with a host of detrimental effects, including loneliness (Nansel, Overpeck, Pilla, & Ruan, 2001), low self‐esteem (Jankauskiene, Kardelis, Sukys, & Kardeliene, 2008; Salmivalli, Kaukiainen, Kaistaniemi, & Lagerspetz, 1999), anxiety, depression (Kaltiala‐Heino, Rimpela, Rantanen, & Rimpela, 2000), suicide ideation (Kaltiala‐Heino, Rimpela, Marttunen, Rimpela, & Rantanen, 1999), impaired academic achievement (Nansel et al., 2001), and poorer physical health (Wolke, Woods, Bloomfield, & Karstadt, 2001).

Physical activity and nutrition program for seniors (PANS) : protocol of a randomized controlled trial

Background Along with reduced levels of physical activity, older Australian's mean energy consumption has increased. Now over 60% of older Australians are considered overweight or obese. This study aims to confirm if a low-cost, accessible physical activity and nutrition program can improve levels of physical activity and diet of insufficiently active 60-70 year-olds. Methods/Design This 12-month home-based randomised controlled trial (RCT) will consist of a nutrition and physical activity intervention for insufficiently active people aged 60 to 70 years from low to medium socio-economic areas. Six-hundred participants will be recruited from the Australian Federal Electoral Role and randomly assigned to the intervention (n = 300) and control (n = 300) groups. The study is based on the Social Cognitive Theory and Precede-Proceed Model, incorporating voluntary cooperation and self-efficacy. The intervention includes a specially designed booklet that provides participants with information and encourages dietary and physical activity goal setting. The booklet will be supported by an exercise chart, calendar, bi-monthly newsletters, resistance bands and pedometers, along with phone and email contact. Data will be collected over three time points: pre-intervention, immediately post-intervention and 6-months post-study. Discussion This trial will provide valuable information for community-based strategies to improve older adults' physical activity and dietary intake. The project will provide guidelines for appropriate sample recruitment, and the development, implementation and evaluation of a minimal intervention program, as well as information on minimising barriers to participation in similar programs.