On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

Linking the fifth pillar to the first in the UN Decade of Action

The UN Decade of Action outlines five pillars of activity within a safe system framework to achieve the goal of slowing and then reversing the global growth in road traffic fatalities, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. The first four pillars - road safety management, safer roads and mobility, safer vehicles, and safer road users – have a strong focus on prevention of road traffic crashes and mitigation of energy exchange when a crash occurs. The fifth pillar – post-crash response – is far more specific, focusing only on crash victims in the event of a safe system failure. The victims appear to be relevant to the first four pillars only insofar as their numbers can be used to evaluate the success of road safety programs and identify the target groups and contributing factors. This paper argues that a better understanding of the lived experience of long term disability from traffic crashes has the potential to provide a feedback loop from the fifth pillar to the first. Research conducted in Thailand with male crash victims with spinal injury demonstrates that patterns of attribution and social and cultural factors have important implications for road safety management and for interventions aimed at influencing behaviour. In addition, the mobility constraints experienced by people with long term disability can point to systemic issues that might otherwise go unnoticed. The UN Decade of Action can benefit from a more thorough exploration of the experiences and circumstances of people with long term disability as the result of a road traffic crash. Rather than being evidence of the failure of the safe system, they can inform the development of more effective road safety management on low-income and middle-income countries.

A comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers

Young novice drivers - that is, drivers aged 16-25 years who are relatively inexperienced in driving on the road and have a novice (Learner, Provisional) driver's licence - have been overrepresented in car crash, injury and fatality statistics around the world for decades. There are numerous persistent characteristics evident in young novice driver crashes, fatalities and offences, including variables relating to the young driver themselves, broader social influences which include their passengers, the car they drive, and when and how they drive, and their risky driving behaviour in particular. Moreover, there are a range of psychosocial factors influencing the behaviour of young novice drivers, including the social influences of parents and peers, and person-related factors such as age-related factors, attitudes, and sensation seeking. Historically, a range of approaches have been developed to manage the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers. Traditional measures predominantly relying upon education have had limited success in regulating the risky driving behaviour of the young novice driver. In contrast, interventions such as graduated driver licensing (GDL) which acknowledges young novice drivers' limitations - principally pertaining to their chronological and developmental age, and their driving inexperience - have shown to be effective in ameliorating this pervasive public health problem. In practice, GDL is a risk management tool that is designed to reduce driving at risky times (e.g., at night) or in risky driving conditions (e.g., with passengers), while still enabling novice drivers to obtain experience. In this regard, the GDL program in Queensland, Australia, was considerably enhanced in July 2007, and major additions to the program include mandated Learner practice of 100 hours recorded in a logbook, and passenger limits during night driving in the Provisional phase. Road safety researchers have also continued to consider the influential role played by the young driver's psychosocial characteristics, including psychological traits and states. In addition, whilst the majority of road safety user research is epidemiological in nature, contemporary road safety research is increasingly applying psychological and criminological theories. Importantly, such theories not only can guide young novice driver research, they can also inform the development and evaluation of countermeasures targeting their risky driving behaviour. The research is thus designed to explore the self-reported behaviours - and the personal, psychosocial, and structural influences upon the behaviours - of young novice drivers This thesis incorporates three stages of predominantly quantitative research to undertake a comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Risky driving behaviour increases the likelihood of the young novice driver being involved in a crash which may harm themselves or other road users, and deliberate risky driving such as driving in excess of the posted speed limits is the focus of the program of research. The extant literature examining the nature of the risky behaviour of the young novice driver - and the contributing factors for this behaviour - while comprehensive, has not led to the development of a reliable instrument designed specifically to measure the risky behaviour of the young novice driver. Therefore the development and application of such a tool (the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale, or BYNDS) was foremost in the program of research. In addition to describing the driving behaviours of the young novice, a central theme of this program of research was identifying, describing, and quantifying personal, behavioural, and environmental influences upon young novice driver risky behaviour. Accordingly the 11 papers developed from the three stages of research which comprise this thesis are framed within Bandura's reciprocal determinism model which explicitly considers the reciprocal relationship between the environment, the person, and their behaviour. Stage One comprised the foundation research and operationalised quantitative and qualitative methodologies to finalise the instrument used in Stages Two and Three. The first part of Stage One involved an online survey which was completed by 761 young novice drivers who attended tertiary education institutions across Queensland. A reliable instrument for measuring the risky driving behaviour of young novices was developed (the BYNDS) and is currently being operationalised in young novice driver research in progress at the Centre for Injury Research and Prevention in Philadelphia, USA. In addition, regression analyses revealed that psychological distress influenced risky driving behaviour, and the differential influence of depression, anxiety, sensitivity to punishments and rewards, and sensation seeking propensity were explored. Path model analyses revealed that punishment sensitivity was mediated by anxiety and depression; and the influence of depression, anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity were moderated by the gender of the driver. Specifically, for males, sensation seeking propensity, depression, and reward sensitivity were predictive of self-reported risky driving, whilst for females anxiety was also influential. In the second part of Stage One, 21 young novice drivers participated in individual and small group interviews. The normative influences of parents, peers, and the Police were explicated. Content analysis supported four themes of influence through punishments, rewards, and the behaviours and attitudes of parents and friends. The Police were also influential upon the risky driving behaviour of young novices. The findings of both parts of Stage One informed the research of Stage Two. Stage Two was a comprehensive investigation of the pre-Licence and Learner experiences, attitudes, and behaviours, of young novice drivers. In this stage, 1170 young novice drivers from across Queensland completed an online or paper survey exploring their experiences, behaviours and attitudes as a pre- and Learner driver. The majority of novices did not drive before they were licensed (pre-Licence driving) or as an unsupervised Learner, submitted accurate logbooks, intended to follow the road rules as a Provisional driver, and reported practicing predominantly at the end of the Learner period. The experience of Learners in the enhanced-GDL program were also examined and compared to those of Learner drivers who progressed through the former-GDL program (data collected previously by Bates, Watson, & King, 2009a). Importantly, current-GDL Learners reported significantly more driving practice and a longer Learner period, less difficulty obtaining practice, and less offence detection and crash involvement than Learners in the former-GDL program. The findings of Stage Two informed the research of Stage Three. Stage Three was a comprehensive exploration of the driving experiences, attitudes and behaviours of young novice drivers during their first six months of Provisional 1 licensure. In this stage, 390 of the 1170 young novice drivers from Stage Two completed another survey, and data collected during Stages Two and Three allowed a longitudinal investigation of self-reported risky driving behaviours, such as GDL-specific and general road rule compliance; risky behaviour such as pre-Licence driving, crash involvement and offence detection; and vehicle ownership, paying attention to Police presence, and punishment avoidance. Whilst the majority of Learner and Provisional drivers reported compliance with GDL-specific and general road rules, 33% of Learners and 50% of Provisional drivers reported speeding by 10-20 km/hr at least occasionally. Twelve percent of Learner drivers reported pre-Licence driving, and these drivers were significantly more risky as Learner and Provisional drivers. Ten percent of males and females reported being involved in a crash, and 10% of females and 18% of males had been detected for an offence, within the first six months of independent driving. Additionally, 75% of young novice drivers reported owning their own car within six months of gaining their Provisional driver's licence. Vehicle owners reported significantly shorter Learner periods and more risky driving exposure as a Provisional driver. Paying attention to Police presence on the roads appeared normative for young novice drivers: 91% of Learners and 72% of Provisional drivers reported paying attention. Provisional drivers also reported they actively avoided the Police: 25% of males and 13% of females; 23% of rural drivers and 15% of urban drivers. Stage Three also allowed the refinement of the risky behaviour measurement tool (BYNDS) created in Stage One; the original reliable 44-item instrument was refined to a similarly reliable 36-item instrument. A longitudinal exploration of the influence of anxiety, depression, sensation seeking propensity and reward sensitivity upon the risky behaviour of the Provisional driver was also undertaken using data collected in Stages Two and Three. Consistent with the research of Stage One, structural equation modeling revealed anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity predicted self-reported risky driving behaviour. Again, gender was a moderator, with only reward sensitivity predicting risky driving for males. A measurement model of Akers' social learning theory (SLT) was developed containing six subscales operationalising the four constructs of differential association, imitation, personal attitudes, and differential reinforcement, and the influence of parents and peers was captured within the items in a number of these constructs. Analyses exploring the nature and extent of the psychosocial influences of personal characteristics (step 1), Akers' SLT (step 2), and elements of the prototype/willingness model (PWM) (step 3) upon self-reported speeding by the Provisional driver in a hierarchical multiple regression model found the following significant predictors: gender (male), car ownership (own car), reward sensitivity (greater sensitivity), depression (greater depression), personal attitudes (more risky attitudes), and speeding (more speeding) as a Learner. The research findings have considerable implications for road safety researchers, policy-makers, mental health professionals and medical practitioners alike. A broad range of issues need to be considered when developing, implementing and evaluating interventions for both the intentional and unintentional risky driving behaviours of interest. While a variety of interventions have been historically utilised, including education, enforcement, rehabilitation and incentives, caution is warranted. A multi-faceted approach to improving novice road safety is more likely to be effective, and new and existing countermeasures should capitalise on the potential of parents, peers and Police to be a positive influence upon the risky behaviour of young novice drivers. However, the efficacy of some interventions remains undetermined at this time. Notwithstanding this caveat, countermeasures such as augmenting and strengthening Queensland's GDL program and targeting parents and adolescents particularly warrant further attention. The findings of the research program suggest that Queensland's current-GDL can be strengthened by increasing compliance of young novice drivers with existing conditions and restrictions. The rates of speeding reported by the young Learner driver are particularly alarming for a number of reasons. The Learner is inexperienced in driving, and travelling in excess of speed limits places them at greater risk as they are also inexperienced in detecting and responding appropriately to driving hazards. In addition, the Learner period should provide the foundation for a safe lifetime driving career, enabling the development and reinforcement of non-risky driving habits. Learners who sped reported speeding by greater margins, and at greater frequencies, when they were able to drive independently. Other strategies could also be considered to enhance Queensland's GDL program, addressing both the pre-Licence adolescent and their parents. Options that warrant further investigation to determine their likely effectiveness include screening and treatment of novice drivers by mental health professionals and/or medical practitioners; and general social skills training. Considering the self-reported pre-licence driving of the young novice driver, targeted education of parents may need to occur before their child obtains a Learner licence. It is noteworthy that those participants who reported risky driving during the Learner phase also were more likely to report risky driving behaviour during the Provisional phase; therefore it appears vital that the development of safe driving habits is encouraged from the beginning of the novice period. General education of parents and young novice drivers should inform them of the considerably-increased likelihood of risky driving behaviour, crashes and offences associated with having unlimited access to a vehicle in the early stages of intermediate licensure. Importantly, parents frequently purchase the car that is used by the Provisional driver, who typically lives at home with their parents, and therefore parents are ideally positioned to monitor the journeys of their young novice driver during this early stage of independent driving. Parents are pivotal in the development of their driving child: they are models who are imitated and are sources of attitudes, expectancies, rewards and punishments; and they provide the most driving instruction for the Learner. High rates of self-reported speeding by Learners suggests that GDL programs specifically consider the nature of supervision during the Learner period, encouraging supervisors to be vigilant to compliance with general and GDL-specific road rules, and especially driving in excess of speed limit. Attitudes towards driving are formed before the adolescent reaches the age when they can be legally licensed. Young novice drivers with risky personal attitudes towards driving reported more risky driving behaviour, suggesting that countermeasures should target such attitudes and that such interventions might be implemented before the adolescent is licensed. The risky behaviours and attitudes of friends were also found to be influential, and given that young novice drivers tend to carry their friends as their passengers, a group intervention such as provided in a school class context may prove more effective. Social skills interventions that encourage the novice to resist the negative influences of their friends and their peer passengers, and to not imitate the risky driving behaviour of their friends, may also be effective. The punishments and rewards anticipated from and administered by friends were also found to influence the self-reported risky behaviour of the young novice driver; therefore young persons could be encouraged to sanction the risky, and to reward the non-risky, driving of their novice friends. Adolescent health programs and related initiatives need to more specifically consider the risks associated with driving. Young novice drivers are also adolescents, a developmental period associated with depression and anxiety. Depression, anxiety, and sensation seeking propensity were found to be predictive of risky driving; therefore interventions targeting psychological distress, whilst discouraging the expression of sensation seeking propensity whilst driving, warrant development and trialing. In addition, given that reward sensitivity was also predictive, a scheme which rewards novice drivers for safe driving behaviour - rather than rewarding the novice through emotional and instrumental rewards for risky driving behaviour - requires further investigation. The Police were also influential in the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Young novice drivers who had been detected for an offence, and then avoided punishment, reacted differentially, with some drivers appearing to become less risky after the encounter, whilst for others their risky behaviour appeared to be reinforced and therefore was more likely to be performed again. Such drivers saw t

How two-tier boards can be more effective

Purpose: This study explores how non-executive directors address governance problems on Dutch two-tier boards. Within this board model, challenges might be particularly difficult to address due to the formal separation of management boards’ decision-management from supervisory boards’ decision-control roles. Design/methodology/approach: Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire among non-executive directors provide unique insights into three major challenges in the boardrooms of two-tier boards in the Netherlands. Findings: The study indicates that non-executive directors mainly experience challenges in three areas: the ability to ask management critical questions, information asymmetries between the management and supervisory boards and the management of the relationship between individual executive and non-executive directors. The qualitative in-depth analysis reveals the complexity of the contributing factors to problems in the boardroom and the range of process and social interventions non-executive directors use to address boardroom issues with management and the organization of the board. Practical implications: While policy makers have been largely occupied with the ‘right’ board composition, the results highlight the importance of adequately addressing operational challenges in the boardroom. The results emphasize the importance of a better understanding of board processes and the need of non-executive directors to carefully manage relationships in and around the boardroom. Originality/value: Whereas most studies have focussed on regulatory initiatives to improve the functioning of boards (e.g., the independence of the board), this study explores how non-executive directors attempt to enhance the effectiveness of boards on which they serve.

Environmental constitutional reform in the developing world : shifting the perspective of international law?

In recent years a growing number of states have chosen to recognise environmental issues in their national constitutions. Some have added declarations about the value of the environment, some have sought to restrict or regulate government’s ability to take action which would potentially harm the environment, while others have proclaimed that citizens possess a right to an environment of a particular quality. A survey of these constitutional provisions reveals that the majority of reform in this area has come from developing states, including a number of states which have been designated as among the least developed countries in the world. The increasing focus on constitutional environmental rights appears to represent a shift in the attitude of developing and emerging economies, which could in turn be influential in setting the tone of the environmental rights debate more broadly, with potential to shape the future development of international law in the area. This chapter examines constitutional environmental rights in an attempt to determine whether consistent state practice can in fact be identified in this area which might form the basis of an emerging norm. It will also analyse some of the potential contributing factors to the proliferation of a constitutional right to a good environment among developing states, and the implications for the development of customary international law.

Quantitative and qualitative changes in gene expression patterns characterize the activity of plaques in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex autoimmune disorder of the CNS with both genetic and environmental contributing factors. Clinical symptoms are broadly characterized by initial onset, and progressive debilitating neurological impairment. In this study, RNA from MS chronic active and MS acute lesions was extracted, and compared with patient matched normal white matter by fluorescent cDNA microarray hybridization analysis. This resulted in the identification of 139 genes that were differentially regulated in MS plaque tissue compared to normal tissue. Of these, 69 genes showed a common pattern of expression in the chronic active and acute plaque tissues investigated (Pvalue<0.0001, ρ=0.73, by Spearman's ρ analysis); while 70 transcripts were uniquely differentially expressed (≥1.5-fold) in either acute or chronic active tissues. These results included known markers of MS such as the myelin basic protein (MBP) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) M1, nerve growth factors, such as nerve injury-induced protein 1 (NINJ1), X-ray and excision DNA repair factors (XRCC9 and ERCC5) and X-linked genes such as the ribosomal protein, RPS4X. Primers were then designed for seven array-selected genes, including transferrin (TF), superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1), glutathione peroxidase 1 (GPX1), GSTP1, crystallin, alpha-B (CRYAB), phosphomannomutase 1 (PMM1) and tubulin β-5 (TBB5), and real time quantitative (Q)-PCR analysis was performed. The results of comparative Q-PCR analysis correlated significantly with those obtained by array analysis (r=0.75, Pvalue<0.01, by Pearson's bivariate correlation). Both chronic active and acute plaques shared the majority of factors identified suggesting that quantitative, rather than gross qualitative differences in gene expression pattern may define the progression from acute to chronic active plaques in MS.

Cyclin A/CDK2 regulates multiple G2 phase pathways

The cell cycle is a carefully choreographed series of phases that when executed successfully will allow the complete replication of the genome and the equal division of the genome and other cellular content into two independent daughter cells. The inability of the cell to execute cell division successfully can result in either checkpoint activation to allow repair and/or apoptosis and/or mutations/errors that may or may not lead to tumourgenesis. Cyclin A/CDK2 is the primary cyclin/CDK regulating G2 phase progression of the cell cycle. Cyclin A/CDK2 activity peaks in G2 phase and its inhibition causes a G2 phase delay that we have termed 'the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay'. Understanding the key pathways that are involved in the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay has been the primary focus of this study. Characterising the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay revealed accumulated levels of the inactive form of the mitotic regulator, cyclin B/CDK1. Surprisingly, there was also increased microtubule nucleation at the centrosomes, and the centrosomes stained for markers of cyclin B/CDK1 activity. Both microtubule nucleation at the centrosomes and phosphoprotein markers were lost with short-term treatment of CDK1/2 inhibition. Cyclin A/CDK2 localised at the centrosomes in late G2 phase after separation of the centrosomes but before the start of prophase. Thus G2 phase cyclin A/CDK2 controls the timing of entry into mitosis by controlling the subsequent activation of cyclin B/CDK1, but also has an unexpected role in coordinating the activation of cyclin B/CDK1 at the centrosome and in the nucleus. In addition to regulating the timing of cyclin B/CDK1 activation and entry into mitosis in the unperturbed cell cycle, cyclin A/CDK2 also was shown to have a role in G2 phase checkpoint recovery. Known G2 phase regulators were investigated to determine whether they had a role in imposing the cyclin A/ CDK2 dependent G2 delay. Examination of the critical G2 checkpoint arrest protein, Chk1, which also has a role during unperturbed G2/M phases revealed the presence of activated Chk1 in G2 phase, in a range of cell lines. Activated Chk1 levels were shown to accumulate in cyclin A/CDK2 depleted/inhibited cells. Further investigations revealed that Chk1, but not Chk2, depletion could reverse the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay. It was confirmed that the accumulative activation of Chk1 was not a consequence of DNA damage induced by cyclin A depletion. The potential of cyclin A/CDK2 to regulate Chk1 revealed that the inhibitory phosphorylations, Ser286 and Ser301, were not directly catalysed by cyclin A/CDK2 in G2 phase to regulate mitotic entry. It appeared that the ability of cyclin A/CDK2 to regulate cyclin B/CDK1 activation impacted cyclin B/CDK1s phosphorylation of Chk1 on Ser286 and Ser301, thereby contributing to the delay in G2/M phase progression. Chk1 inhibition/depletion partially abrogated the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay, and was less effective in abrogating G2 phase checkpoint suggesting that other cyclin A/CDK2 dependent mechanisms contributed to these roles of cyclin A/CDK2. In an attempt to identify these other contributing factors another G2/M phase regulator known to be regulated by cyclin A/CDK2, Cdh1 and its substrates Plk1 and Claspin were examined. Cdh1 levels were reduced in cyclin A/CDK2 depleted/inhibited cells although this had little effect on Plk1, a known Cdh1 substrate. However, the level of another substrate, Claspin, was increased. Cdh1 depletion mimicked the effect of cyclin A depletion but to a weaker extent and was sufficient at increasing Claspin levels similar to the increase caused by cyclin A depletion. Co-depletion of cyclin A and Claspin blocked the accumulation of activated Chk1 normally seen with cyclin A depletion alone. However Claspin depletion alone did not reduce the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay but this is likely to be a result of inhibition of S phase roles of Claspin. Together, these data suggest that cyclin A/CDK2 regulates a number of different mechanisms that contribute to G2/M phase progression. Here it has been demonstrated that in normal G2/M progression and possibly to a lesser extent in G2 phase checkpoint recovery, cyclin A/CDK2 regulates the level of Cdh1 which in turn affects at least one of its substrates, Claspin, and consequently results in the increased level of activated Chk1 observed. However, the involvement of Cdh1 and Claspin alone does not explain the G2 phase delay observed with cyclin A/CDK2 depletion/inhibition. It is likely that other mechanisms, possibly including cyclin A/CDK2 regulation of Wee1 and FoxM1, as reported by others, combine with the mechanism described here to regulate normal G2/M phase progression and G2 phase checkpoint recovery. These findings support the critical role for cyclin A/CDK2 in regulating progression into mitosis and suggest that upstream regulators of cyclin A/CDK2 activation will also be critical controllers of this cell cycle transition. The pathways that work to co-ordinate cell cycle progression are very intricate and deciphering these pathways, required for normal cell cycle progression, is key to understanding tumour development. By understanding cell cycle regulatory pathways it will allow the identification of the pathway/s and their mechanism/s that become affected in tumourgenesis. This will lead to the development of better targeted therapies, inferring better efficacy with fewer side effects than commonly seen with the use of traditional therapies, such as chemotherapy. Furthermore, this has the potential to positively impact the development of personalised medicines and the customisation of healthcare.

What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

1. Expert knowledge continues to gain recognition as a valuable source of information in a wide range of research applications. Despite recent advances in defining expert knowledge, comparatively little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors, and thereby, to quantify an individual’s expertise. 2. We present a systems approach to describing expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their interrelationships, and allows quantification of an individual’s expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For the purpose of illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with professional taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network were determined by a second set of senior taxonomists. This second set of experts (i.e. supra-experts) also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was then assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states in the discipline of taxonomy. Hypothetical career states were used to incorporate the greatest possible differences in career states and provide an opportunity to test the model against known inputs. 3. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was remarkably good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had built into them. 4. This systems approach provides a novel way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.

Comparison of Motorists’ and Cyclists’ perception of bicycle safety

Increasing the modal share of public transit systems has become paramount in aiding the reduction on the excessive reliance of personal motor vehicles. More so the need to increase the share of active modes of transport such as the use of bicycles, therefore there is an ever increasing need to use bicycles both on shared pedestrian paths and on-road cycling. The risk to cyclist, or consequently the perception of the risk from both cyclists and motorists alike, is an important factor to increase the use of this transport mode. This paper investigates perception of bicycle safety by conducting a survey and analysing the survey data to understand how participants with different backgrounds perceive the risks of cycling for transport. Contributing factors to people’s perception of bicycle safety were identified and compared across different road user groups, based upon which recommendations were made on how to improve bicycle safety.

What can we learn from the crashes of learner riders?

In some parts of Australia, people wanting to learn to ride a motorcycle are required to complete an off-road training course before they are allowed to practice on the road. In the state of Queensland, they are only required to pass a short multiple-choice road rules knowledge test. This paper describes an analysis of police-reported crashes involving learner riders in Queensland that was undertaken as part of research investigating whether pre-learner training is needed and, if so, the issues that should be addressed in training.. The crashes of learner riders and other riders were compared to identify whether there are particular situations or locations in which learner motorcyclists are over-involved in crashes, which could then be targeted in the pre-learner package. The analyses were undertaken separately for riders aged under 25 (330 crashes) versus those aged 25 and over (237 crashes) to provide some insight into whether age or riding inexperience are the more important factors, and thus to indicate whether there are merits in having different licensing or training approaches for younger and older learner riders. Given that the average age of learner riders was 33 years, under 25 was chosen to provide a sufficiently large sample of younger riders. Learner riders appeared to be involved in more severe crashes and to be more often at fault than fully-licensed riders but this may reflect problems in reporting, rather than real differences. Compared to open licence holders, both younger and older learner riders had relatively more crashes in low speed zones and relatively fewer in high speed zones. Riders aged under 25 had elevated percentages of night-time crashes and fewer single unit (potentially involving rider error only) crashes regardless of the type of licence held. The contributing factors that were more prevalent in crashes of learner riders than holders of open licences were: inexperience (37.2% versus 0.5%), inattention (21.5% versus 15.6%), alcohol or drugs (12.0% versus 5.1%) and drink riding (9.9% versus 3.1%). The pattern of contributing factors was generally similar for younger and older learner riders, although younger learners were (not surprisingly) more likely to have inexperience coded as a contributing factor (49.7% versus 19.8%). Some of the differences in crashes between learner riders and fully-licensed riders appear to reflect relatively more riding in urban areas by learners, rather than increased risks relating to inexperience. The analysis of contributing factors in learner rider crashes suggests that hazard perception and risk management (in terms of speed and alcohol and drugs) should be included in a pre-learner program. Currently, most learner riders in Queensland complete pre-licence training and become licensed within one month of obtaining their learner permit. If the introduction of pre-learner training required that the learner permit was held for a minimum duration, then the immediate effect might be more learners riding (and crashing). Thus, it is important to consider how training and licensing initiatives work together in order to improve the safety of new riders (and how this can be evaluated).

Investigations of the physical and chemical properties of ambient fine particles in urban schools

This thesis reports a comprehensive study on the physical and chemical properties of airborne particles in Brisbane, especially around schools. The sources and potential toxicity of the particles were identified, enabling an assessment of the contributing factors to children's exposure at school. The results from this thesis give a quantitative estimate of the range of airborne particles that children are exposed to at urban schools with different traffic conditions.

2010–2011 Queensland floods : using Haddon's Matrix to define and categorise public safety strategies

Objective The 2010–2011 Queensland floods resulted in the most deaths from a single flood event in Australia since 1916. This article analyses the information on these deaths for comparison with those from previous floods in modern Australia in an attempt to identify factors that have contributed to those deaths. Haddon's Matrix, originally designed for prevention of road trauma, offers a framework for understanding the interplay between contributing factors and helps facilitate a clearer understanding of the varied strategies required to ensure people's safety for particular flood types. Methods Public reports and flood relevant literature were searched using key words ‘flood’, ‘fatality’, ‘mortality’, ‘death’, ‘injury’ and ‘victim’ through Google Scholar, PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO. Data relating to reported deaths during the 2010–2011 Queensland floods, and relevant data of previous Australian flood fatality (1997–2009) were collected from these available sources. These sources were also used to identify contributing factors. Results There were 33 deaths directly attributed to the event, of which 54.5% were swept away in a flash flood on 10 January 2011. A further 15.1% of fatalities were caused by inappropriate behaviours. This is different to floods in modern Australia where over 90% of deaths are related to the choices made by individuals. There is no single reason why people drown in floods, but rather a complex interplay of factors. Conclusions The present study and its integration of research findings and conceptual frameworks might assist governments and communities to develop policies and strategies to prevent flood injury and fatalities.

Physical activity and physical fitness in African-American girls with and without obesity

Lack of physical activity and low levels of physical fitness are thought to be contributing factors to the high prevalence of obesity in African-American girls, To examine this hypothesis, we compared habitual physical activity and physical fitness in 54 African-American girls with obesity and 96 African-American girls without obesity residing in rural South Carolina, Participation in vigorous (greater than or equal to 6 METs) (VPA) or moderate and vigorous physical activity (greater than or equal to 4 METs) (MVPA) was assessed on three consecutive days using the Previous Day Physical Activity Recall, Cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed using the PWC 170 cycle ergometer test, Upper body strength was determined at two sites via isometric cable tensiometer tests, Relative to their counterparts without obesity, girls with obesity reported significantly fewer 30-minute blocks of VPA (0.90 +/- 0.14 vs. 1.3 +/- 0.14) and MVPA (1.2 +/- 0.18 vs. 1.7 +/- 0.16) (p<0.01), Within the entire sample, VPA and MVPA were inversely associated with body mass index (r=-0.17 and r=-0.19) and triceps skinfold thickness (r=-0.19 and r=-0.22) (p<0.05), In the PWC 170 test and isometric strength tests, girls with obesity demonstrated absolute scores that were similar to, or greater than, those of girls without obesity; however, when scores were expressed relative to bodyweight, girls with obesity demonstrated significantly lower values (p<0.05). The results support the hypothesis that lack of physical activity and low physical fitness are important contributing factors in the development and/or maintenance of obesity in African-American girls.

Transformation in educational practices through STEM

The need for strong science, technology and innovation linkages between Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and industries is a pivotal point for middle-income countries in their endeavor to enhance human capital in socioeconomic development. Currently, the University-Industry partnerships are at an infant stage in Sri Lankan higher education context. Technological maturity and effective communication skills are contributing factors for an efficient graduate profile. Also, expanding internship programs in particular for STEM disciplines provide work experience to students that would strengthen the relevance of higher education programs. This study reports historical overviews and current trends in STEM education in Sri Lanka. Emphasis will be drawn to recent technological and higher education curricular reforms. Data from the last 10 years were extracted from the higher education sector and Ministry of Higher Education Policy portfolios. Associations and trend analysis of the sector growth were compared with STEM existence, merger and predicted augmentations. Results were depicted and summarised based on STEM streams and disciplines. It was observed that the trend of STEM augmentation in the Sri Lankan Higher Education context is growing at a slow but steady pace. Further analysis with other sectors in particular, Industry information, would be useful and a worthwhile exercise.

Advanced in-vehicle applications to mitigate driver aggression

Aggressive behavior at the steering wheel has been indicated as a contributing factor in a majority of crashes and anger has been compared to alcohol impairment in terms of probability to cause a crash. It has been shown that being in a state of anger or excitement while driving can decrease the drivers’ performances. . This paper reports the evaluation of 6 novel design alternatives of In-Vehicle Information Systems (IVIS) aimed at mitigating driver aggression. Each application presented was designed to tackle the following contributing factors to driver aggression: competitiveness, anonymity, territoriality, stress as well as social and emotional isolation. The 6 applications were simulated using computer vision algorithm to automatically overlay the real traffic conditions with ‘Head-Up Display’ visualizations. Two applications emerged over the others from participant’s evaluation: shared music combined the known calming effect of music with the sense of sympathy and intimacy caused by hearing other drivers’ music. The Shared Snapshot application provided an immediate gratification and was evaluated as a potential prevention of roadside quarrels. The paper presents Theoretical foundation, participant’s evaluations, implications and limitations of the study.