Discovering future disaster management capability needs using scenario planning

In recent years disaster risk reduction efforts have focused on disturbances ranging from climate variability, seismic hazards, geo-political instability and public and animal health crises. These factors combined with uncertainty derived from inter-dependencies within and across systems of critical infrastructure create significant problems of governance for the private and public sector alike. The potential for rapid spread of impacts, geographically and virtually, can render a comprehensive understanding of disaster response and recovery needs and risk mitigation issues beyond the grasp of competent authority. Because of such cascading effects communities and governments at local and state-levels are unlikely to face single incidents but rather series of systemic impacts: often appearing concurrently. A further point to note is that both natural and technological hazards can act directly on socio-technical systems as well as being propagated by them: as network events. Such events have been categorised as ‘outside of the box,’ ‘too fast,’ and ‘too strange’ (Lagadec, 2004). Emergent complexities in linked systems can make disaster effects difficult to anticipate and recovery efforts difficult to plan for. Beyond the uncertainties of real world disasters, that might be called familiar or even regular, can we safely assume that the generic capability we use now will suit future disaster contexts? This paper presents initial scoping of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre seeking to define future capability needs of disaster management organisations. It explores challenges to anticipating the needs of representative agencies and groups active in before, during and after phases of emergency and disaster situations using capability deficit assessments and scenario assessment.

Attributions of responsibility, blame and justifiability to a perpetrator and victim in an acquaintance rape scenario: The influence of Marijuana intoxication

Marijuana is a commonly used illicit drug by young adults and has been implicated in about one third of sexual assaults. However, the influence of Marijuana intoxication on rape attributions has not been previously investigated. This study examined the effects of perpetrator and victim Marijuana intoxication and participant sex on rape attributions. Young adults (N = 285) read an acquaintance rape scenario where Marijuana intoxication was manipulated and completed measures of perpetrator (responsibility, blame and justifiability) and victim attributions (responsibility and blame). The results revealed that an intoxicated, compared to sober, perpetrator was attributed less responsibility for his sexual aggression. When the victim was intoxicated, compared to sober, the perpetrator and victim were attributed less and more blame for the assault, respectively. These findings demonstrate that, irrespective of perceiver sex, Marijuana intoxication, like alcohol intoxication, results in an attributional double standard in favour of the perpetrator.

Teaching scenario analysis – An action learning pedagogy

In this paper we provide an introduction to our teaching of scenario analysis. Scenario analysis offers an excellent instructional vehicle for investigating ‘wicked problems’; issues that are complex and ambiguous and require trans-disciplinary inquiry. We outline the pedagogical underpinning based on action learning and provide a critical approach from the intuitive logics school of scenario analysis. We use this in our programme in which student groups engage in semi-structured, but divergent and inclusive analysis of a selected focal issue. They then develop a set of scenario storylines that outline the limits of possibility and plausibility for a selected time-horizon year. The scenarios are portrayed not as narratives, but as vehicles for exploration of the causes and outcomes of the interplay between forces in the contextual environment that drive the unfolding future in the context of the focal issue. In this way, we provide internally-generated challenges to both individual pre-conceptions and group-level thinking.

Evaluation of a patient-specific finite-element model to simulate conservative treatment in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Study design Retrospective validation study. Objectives To propose a method to evaluate, from a clinical standpoint, the ability of a finite-element model (FEM) of the trunk to simulate orthotic correction of spinal deformity and to apply it to validate a previously described FEM. Summary of background data Several FEMs of the scoliotic spine have been described in the literature. These models can prove useful in understanding the mechanisms of scoliosis progression and in optimizing its treatment, but their validation has often been lacking or incomplete. Methods Three-dimensional (3D) geometries of 10 patients before and during conservative treatment were reconstructed from biplanar radiographs. The effect of bracing was simulated by modeling displacements induced by the brace pads. Simulated clinical indices (Cobb angle, T1–T12 and T4–T12 kyphosis, L1–L5 lordosis, apical vertebral rotation, torsion, rib hump) and vertebral orientations and positions were compared to those measured in the patients' 3D geometries. Results Errors in clinical indices were of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties due to 3D reconstruction; for instance, Cobb angle was simulated with a root mean square error of 5.7°, and rib hump error was 5.6°. Vertebral orientation was simulated with a root mean square error of 4.8° and vertebral position with an error of 2.5 mm. Conclusions The methodology proposed here allowed in-depth evaluation of subject-specific simulations, confirming that FEMs of the trunk have the potential to accurately simulate brace action. These promising results provide a basis for ongoing 3D model development, toward the design of more efficient orthoses.

Scenario planning and emerging global trends for the future of roads and automobile transport

Roads and road infrastructure will be faced with multiple challenges over the coming decades – challenges that in many ways bear little resemblance to those previously faced - and as such will require new approaches. The opportunity exists to transform the way road infrastructure is conceived and constructed, as a key part of the process of assisting society to respond to climate change and reduce other environmental pressures. Innovations in road construction, use and management in order to manage these changes can now be seen. Scenario planning is one tool that can take into account emerging challenges, develop or adopt new approaches, and thus help this transformation to occur. The paper explores scenario planning methodologies, global innovations and trends in road construction and maintenance and the findings from stakeholder workshops in Brisbane and Perth. It highlights key opportunities for road agencies to use scenarios to enable planning that, in the face of future uncertainties, facilitates appropriate responses.

A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.

Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method

In this paper we present a novel application of scenario methods to engage a diverse constituency of senior stakeholders, with limited time availability, in debate to inform planning and policy development. Our case study project explores post-carbon futures for the Latrobe Valley region of the Australian state of Victoria. Our approach involved initial deductive development of two ‘extreme scenarios’ by a multi-disciplinary research team, based upon an extensive research programme. Over four workshops with the stakeholder constituency, these initial scenarios were discussed, challenged, refined and expanded through an inductive process, whereby participants took ‘ownership’ of a final set of three scenarios. These were both comfortable and challenging to them. The outcomes of this process subsequently informed public policy development for the region. Whilst this process did not follow a single extant structured, multi-stage scenario approach, neither was it devoid of form. Here, we seek to theorise and codify elements of our process – which we term ‘scenario improvisation’ – such that others may adopt it.

Diabetic charcot neuroarthropathy of the knee: Conservative treatment options as alternatives to surgery

In contrast to the well-known Charcot neuroarthropathy (CN) of the foot, CN of the knee is hardly recognized. In a literature search, we only found five articles on total knee arthroplasty for Charcot joints (1–5). We did not find a single article dealing with alternative treatment options or the general clinical course of this disease. We started our study

Efficient probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure considering wind perturbation

The integration of stochastic wind power has accentuated a challenge for power system stability assessment. Since the power system is a time-variant system under wind generation fluctuations, pure time-domain simulations are difficult to provide real-time stability assessment. As a result, the worst-case scenario is simulated to give a very conservative assessment of system transient stability. In this study, a probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure method is proposed to provide a less conservative contingency analysis which covers 5-min wind fluctuations and a successive fault. This probabilistic approach would estimate the transfer limit of a critical line for a given fault with stochastic wind generation and active control devices in a multi-machine system. This approach achieves a lower computation cost and improved accuracy using a new stability measure and polynomial interpolation, and is feasible for online contingency analysis.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

With the accelerated trend of global warming, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were typically designed based on current weather data, may not be able to cope with the future climate. This paper quantifies, through computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system. It is found from the sample office building examined that the existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. When the annual average temperature increase exceeds 2°C, the risk of current office buildings subjected to overheating will be significantly increased. For existing buildings which are designed with current climate condition, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings, in which the possible global warming has been taken into account in the design, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under 2070 High scenario would be required to improve the building thermal comfort level to an acceptable standard.

Program Annotations: Feedback for Students Learning to Program

This paper presents a novel program annotation mechanism which enables students to obtain feedback from tutors on their programs in a far simpler and more efficient way than is possible with, for example, email. A common scenario with beginning students is to email tutors with copies of their malfunctioning programs. Unfortunately the emailed program often bears little resemblance to the program the student has been trying to make work; often it is incomplete, a different version and corrupted. We propose an annotation mechanism enabling students to simply and easily annotate their programs with comments asking for help. Similarly our mechanism enables tutors to view students’ programs and to reply to their comments in a simple and structured fashion. This means students can get frequent and timely feedback on their programs; tutors can provide such feedback efficiently, and hence students’ learning is greatly improved.

Fabricating reconciliation : Howard's forgettable speech

In this chapter, John Howard’s policy speech to The Sydney Institute, a conservative think tank, on October 11, 2007 as the Australian Prime Minister of the day, is analysed within the frame of discourse analysis to make visible how the speech works in old ways to dress up neoliberal policy as new and reformist. Taking centre stage, Howard pointed to concrete steps undertaken to achieve what he called a “new reconciliation.” This cynical manoeuvre, which put reconciliation back onto the election agenda (after it was earlier derided for its divisive and muddle headed symbolism), constituted a “neoliberal quickstep” (Reiger, 2006) or quickfix of sorts. The speech was also used as a place to reintroduce the Northern Territory Intervention, which at the time was purported to be a response to child abuse and Indigenous community dysfunction.