Motivating domestic energy conservation through comparative, community-based feedback in mobile and social media

The progress of technology has led to the increased adoption of energy monitors among household energy consumers. While the monitors available on the market deliver real-time energy usage feedback to the consumer, the format of this data is usually unengaging and mundane. Moreover, it fails to address consumers with different motivations and needs to save and compare energy. This paper presents a study that seeks to provide initial indications for motivation-specific design of energy-related feedback. We focus on comparative feedback supported by a community of energy consumers. In particular, we examine eco-visualisations, temporal self-comparison, norm comparison, one-on-one comparison and ranking, whereby the last three allow us to explore the potential of socialising energy-related feedback. These feedback types were integrated in EnergyWiz – a mobile application that enables users to compare with their past performance, neighbours, contacts from social networking sites and other EnergyWiz users. The application was evaluated in personal, semi-structured interviews, which provided first insights on how to design motivation-related comparative feedback.

Prioritizing land and sea conservation investments to protect coral reefs

Background: Coral reefs have exceptional biodiversity, support the livelihoods of millions of people, and are threatened by multiple human activities on land (e.g. farming) and in the sea (e.g. overfishing). Most conservation efforts occur at local scales and, when effective, can increase the resilience of coral reefs to global threats such as climate change (e.g. warming water and ocean acidification). Limited resources for conservation require that we efficiently prioritize where and how to best sustain coral reef ecosystems.----- ----- Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we develop the first prioritization approach that can guide regional-scale conservation investments in land-and sea-based conservation actions that cost-effectively mitigate threats to coral reefs, and apply it to the Coral Triangle, an area of significant global attention and funding. Using information on threats to marine ecosystems, effectiveness of management actions at abating threats, and the management and opportunity costs of actions, we calculate the rate of return on investment in two conservation actions in sixteen ecoregions. We discover that marine conservation almost always trumps terrestrial conservation within any ecoregion, but terrestrial conservation in one ecoregion can be a better investment than marine conservation in another. We show how these results could be used to allocate a limited budget for conservation and compare them to priorities based on individual criteria.----- ----- Conclusions/Significance: Previous prioritization approaches do not consider both land and sea-based threats or the socioeconomic costs of conserving coral reefs. A simple and transparent approach like ours is essential to support effective coral reef conservation decisions in a large and diverse region like the Coral Triangle, but can be applied at any scale and to other marine ecosystems.

Multiple evolutionary rate classes in animal genome evolution

The proportion of functional sequence in the human genome is currently a subject of debate. The most widely accepted figure is that approximately 5% is under purifying selection. In Drosophila, estimates are an order of magnitude higher, though this corresponds to a similar quantity of sequence. These estimates depend on the difference between the distribution of genomewide evolutionary rates and that observed in a subset of sequences presumed to be neutrally evolving. Motivated by the widening gap between these estimates and experimental evidence of genome function, especially in mammals, we developed a sensitive technique for evaluating such distributions and found that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We found strong evidence for at least nine well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least seven classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. We also identified at least three rate classes in human ancestral repeats. By positing that the largest of these ancestral repeat classes is neutrally evolving, we estimate that the proportion of nonneutrally evolving sequence is 30% of human ancestral repeats and 45% of the aligned portion of the genome. However, we also question whether any of the classes represent neutrally evolving sequences and argue that a plausible alternative is that they reflect variable structure-function constraints operating throughout the genomes of complex organisms.

Bayesian methodology for genetics of complex diseases

Genetic research of complex diseases is a challenging, but exciting, area of research. The early development of the research was limited, however, until the completion of the Human Genome and HapMap projects, along with the reduction in the cost of genotyping, which paves the way for understanding the genetic composition of complex diseases. In this thesis, we focus on the statistical methods for two aspects of genetic research: phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology and methods for identifying potentially associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-SNP interactions. With regard to phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology, we firstly investigated the effects of different statistical phenotyping approaches on the subsequent analysis. In light of the findings, and the difficulties in validating the estimated phenotype, we proposed two different methods for reconciling phenotypes of different models using Bayesian model averaging as a coherent mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis, the focus is turned to the methods for identifying associated SNPs and SNP interactions. We review the use of Bayesian logistic regression with variable selection for SNP identification and extended the model for detecting the interaction effects for population based case-control studies. In this part of study, we also develop a machine learning algorithm to cope with the large scale data analysis, namely modified Logic Regression with Genetic Program (MLR-GEP), which is then compared with the Bayesian model, Random Forests and other variants of logic regression.

The genetics of cutaneous melanoma

Although germline mutations in CDKN2A are present in approximately 25% of large multicase melanoma families, germline mutations are much rarer in the smaller melanoma families that make up most individuals reporting a family history of this disease. In addition, only three families worldwide have been reported with germline mutations in a gene other than CDKN2A (i.e., CDK4). Accordingly, current genomewide scans underway at the National Human Genome Research Institute hope to reveal linkage to one or more chromosomal regions, and ultimately lead to the identification of novel genes involved in melanoma predisposition. Both CDKN2A and PTEN have been identified as genes involved in sporadic melanoma development; however, mutations are more common in cell lines than uncultured tumors. A combination of cytogenetic, molecular, and functional studies suggests that additional genes involved in melanoma development are located to chromosomal regions 1p, 6q, 7p, 11q, and possibly also 9p and 10q. With the near completion of the human genome sequencing effort, combined with the advent of high throughput mutation analyses and new techniques including cDNA and tissue microarrays, the identification and characterization of additional genes involved in melanoma pathogenesis seem likely in the near future.

Quality of life and genetics in men with prostate cancer

As family history has been established as a risk factor for prostate cancer, attempts have been made to isolate predisposing genetic variants that are related to hereditary prostate cancer. With many genetic variants still to be identified and investigated, it is not yet possible to fully understand the impact of genetic variants on prostate cancer development. The high survival rates among men with prostate cancer have meant that other issues, such as quality of life (QoL), have also become important. Through their effect on a person’s health, a range of inherited genetic variants may potentially influence QoL in men with prostate cancer, even prior to treatment. Until now, limited research has been conducted on the relationship between genetics and QoL. Thus, this study contributes to an emerging field by aiming to identify certain genetic variants related to the QoL found in men with prostate cancer. It is hoped that this study may lead to future research that will identify men who have an increased risk of a poor QoL following prostate cancer treatment, which will aid in developing treatments that are individually tailored to support them. Previous studies have established that genetic variants of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) and Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) may play a role in prostate cancer development. VEGF and IGF-1 have also been reported to be associated with QoL in people with ovarian cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. This study completed a series of secondary analyses using two major data-sets (from 850 men newly diagnosed with prostate cancer, and approximately 550 men from the general Queensland population), in which genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 were investigated for associations with prostate cancer susceptibility and QoL. The first aim of this research was to investigate genetic variants in the VEGF and IGF-I gene for an association with the risk of prostate cancer. It was found that one IGF-1 genetic variant (rs35765) had a statistically significant association with prostate cancer (p = 0.04), and one VEGF genetic variant (rs2146323) had a statistically significant association with advanced prostate cancer (p = 0.02). The estimates suggest that carriers of the CA and AA genotype for rs35765 may have a reduced risk of developing prostate cancer (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.72, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.55, 0.95, OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.26, 1.39, respectively). Meanwhile, carriers of the CA and AA genotype for rs2146323 may be at increased risk of advanced prostate cancer, which was determined by a Gleason score of above 7 (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.12, 2.63, OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.08, 3.34, respectively). Utilising the widely used short-form health survey, the SF-36v2, the second aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between prostate cancer and QoL prior to treatment. Assessing QoL at this time-point was important as little research has been conducted to evaluate if prostate cancer affects QoL regardless of treatment. The analyses found that mean SF-36v2 scale scores related to physical health were higher by at least 0.3 Standard Deviations (SD) among men with prostate cancer than the general population comparison group. This difference was considered clinically significant (defined by group differences in mean SF-36v2 scores by at least 0.3 SD). These differences were also statistically significant (p<0.05). Mean QoL scale scores related to mental health were similar between men with prostate cancer and those from the general population comparison group. The third aim of this study was to investigate genetic variants in the VEGF and IGF-1 gene for an association with QoL in prostate cancer patients prior to their treatment. It was essential to evaluate these relationships prior to treatment, before the involvement of these genes was potentially interrupted by treatment. The analyses found that some genetic variants had a small clinically significant association (0.3 SD) to some QoL domains experienced by these men. However, most relationships were not statistically significant (p>0.05). Most of the associations found identified that a small sub-group of men with prostate cancer (approximately 2%) reported, on average, a slightly better QoL than the majority of the prostate cancer patients. The fourth aim of this research was to investigate whether associations between genetic variants in VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL were specific to men with prostate cancer, or were also applicable to the general male population. It was found that twenty out of one-hundred relationships between the genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL health-measures and scales examined differed between these groups. In the majority of the relationships involving VEGF SNPs that differed, a clinically significant difference (0.3 or more SD) between mean scores among the genotype groups in prostate cancer patients was found, while mean scores among men from the general-population comparison group were similar. For example, prostate cancer participants who carried at least one T allele (CT or TT genotype) for rs3024994 had a clinically significant higher (0.3 SD) mean QoL score in terms of the role-physical scale, than participants who carried the CC genotype. This was not seen among men from the general population sample, as the mean score was similar between genotype groups. The opposite was seen in regards to the IGF-1 SNPs examined. Overall, these relationships were not considered to directly impact on the clinical options for men with prostate cancer. As this study utilised secondary data from two separate studies, there are a number of important limitations that should be acknowledged including issues of multiple comparisons, power, and missing or unavailable data. It is recommended that this study be replicated as a better-designed study that takes greater consideration of the many factors involved in prostate cancer and QoL. Investigation into other genetic variants of VEGF or IGF-1 is also warranted, as is consideration of other genes and their relationship with QoL. Through identifying certain genetic variants that have a modest association to prostate cancer, this project adds to the knowledge surrounding VEGF and IGF-1 and their role in prostate cancer susceptibility. Importantly, this project has also introduced the potential role genetics plays in QoL, through investigating the relationships between genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL.

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.

Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.

Physical and linkage maps for Drosophila serrata, a model species for studies of clinal adaptation and sexual selection

Drosophila serrata is a member of the montium group, which contains more than 98 species and until recently was considered a subgroup within the melanogaster group. This Drosophila species is an emerging model system for evolutionary quantitative genetics and has been used in studies of species borders, clinal variation and sexual selection. Despite the importance of D. serrata as a model for evolutionary research, our poor understanding of its genome remains a significant limitation. Here, we provide a first-generation gene-based linkage map and a physical map for this species. Consistent with previous studies of other drosophilids we observed strong conservation of genes within chromosome arms homologous with D. melanogaster but major differences in within-arm synteny. These resources will be a useful complement to ongoing genome sequencing efforts and QTL mapping studies in this species