Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Implementing an enhanced repository statistics system for QUT ePrints

Queensland University of Technology (QUT) was one of the first universities in Australia to establish an institutional repository. Launched in November 2003, the repository (QUT ePrints) uses the EPrints open source repository software (from Southampton) and has enjoyed the benefit of an institutional deposit mandate since January 2004. Currently (April 2012), the repository holds over 36,000 records, including 17,909 open access publications with another 2,434 publications embargoed but with mediated access enabled via the ‘Request a copy’ button which is a feature of the EPrints software. At QUT, the repository is managed by the library.QUT ePrints (http://eprints.qut.edu.au) The repository is embedded into a number of other systems at QUT including the staff profile system and the University’s research information system. It has also been integrated into a number of critical processes related to Government reporting and research assessment. Internally, senior research administrators often look to the repository for information to assist with decision-making and planning. While some statistics could be drawn from the advanced search feature and the existing download statistics feature, they were rarely at the level of granularity or aggregation required. Getting the information from the ‘back end’ of the repository was very time-consuming for the Library staff. In 2011, the Library funded a project to enhance the range of statistics which would be available from the public interface of QUT ePrints. The repository team conducted a series of focus groups and individual interviews to identify and prioritise functionality requirements for a new statistics ‘dashboard’. The participants included a mix research administrators, early career researchers and senior researchers. The repository team identified a number of business criteria (eg extensible, support available, skills required etc) and then gave each a weighting. After considering all the known options available, five software packages (IRStats, ePrintsStats, AWStats, BIRT and Google Urchin/Analytics) were thoroughly evaluated against a list of 69 criteria to determine which would be most suitable. The evaluation revealed that IRStats was the best fit for our requirements. It was deemed capable of meeting 21 out of the 31 high priority criteria. Consequently, IRStats was implemented as the basis for QUT ePrints’ new statistics dashboards which were launched in Open Access Week, October 2011. Statistics dashboards are now available at four levels; whole-of-repository level, organisational unit level, individual author level and individual item level. The data available includes, cumulative total deposits, time series deposits, deposits by item type, % fulltexts, % open access, cumulative downloads, time series downloads, downloads by item type, author ranking, paper ranking (by downloads), downloader geographic location, domains, internal v external downloads, citation data (from Scopus and Web of Science), most popular search terms, non-search referring websites. The data is displayed in charts, maps and table format. The new statistics dashboards are a great success. Feedback received from staff and students has been very positive. Individual researchers have said that they have found the information to be very useful when compiling a track record. It is now very easy for senior administrators (including the Deputy Vice Chancellor-Research) to compare the full-text deposit rates (i.e. mandate compliance rates) across organisational units. This has led to increased ‘encouragement’ from Heads of School and Deans in relation to the provision of full-text versions.

Putting the Repository First: Implementing a Repository to RIS Workflow for QUT ePrints

As one of the first institutional repositories in Australia and the first in the world to have an institution-wide deposit mandate, QUT ePrints has great ‘brand recognition’ within the University (Queensland University of Technology) and beyond. The repository is managed by the library but, over the years, the Library’s repository team has worked closely with other departments (especially the Office of Research and IT Services) to ensure that QUT ePrints was embedded into the business processes and systems our academics use regularly. For example, the repository is the source of the publication information which displays on each academic’s Staff Profile page. The repository pulls in citation data from Scopus and Web of Science and displays the data in the publications records. Researchers can monitor their citations at a glance via the repository ‘View’ which displays all their publications. A trend in recent years has been to populate institutional repositories with publication details imported from the University’s research information system (RIS). The main advantage of the RIS to Repository workflow is that it requires little input from the academics as the publication details are often imported into the RIS from publisher databases. Sadly, this is also its main disadvantage. Generally, only the metadata is imported from the RIS and the lack of engagement by the academics results in very low proportions of records with open access full-texts. Consequently, while we could see the value of integrating the two systems, we were determined to make the repository the entry point for publication data. In 2011, the University funded a project to convert a number of paper-based processes into web-based workflows. This included a workflow to replace the paper forms academics used to complete to report new publications (which were later used by the data entry staff to input the details into the RIS). Publication details and full-text files are uploaded to the repository (by the academics or their nominees). Each night, the repository (QUT ePrints) pushes the metadata for new publications into a holding table. The data is checked by Office of Research staff the next day and then ‘imported’ into the RIS. Publication details (including the repository URLs) are pushed from the RIS to the Staff Profiles system. Previously, academics were required to supply the Office of research with photocopies of their publication (for verification/auditing purposes). The repository is now the source of verification information. Library staff verify the accuracy of the publication details and, where applicable, the peer review status of the work. The verification metadata is included in the information passed to the Office of Research. The RIS at QUT comprises two separate systems built on an Oracle database; a proprietary product (ResearchMaster) plus a locally produced system known as RAD (Research Activity Database). The repository platform is EPrints which is built on a MySQL database. This partly explains why the data is passed from one system to the other via a holding table. The new workflow went live in early April 2012. Tests of the technical integration have all been successful. At the end of the first 12 months, the impact of the new workflow on the proportion of full-texts deposited will be evaluated.

Undrained sediment loading key to long-runout submarine mass movements : evidence from the Caribbean Volcanic Arc

Long undersea debris runout can be facilitated by a boundary layer formed by weak marine sediments under a moving slide mass. Undrained loading of such offshore sediment results in a profound drop of basal shear resistance, compared to subaerial shear resistance, enabling long undersea runout. Thus large long-runout submarine landslides are not truly enigmatic (Voight and Elsworth 1992, 1997), but are understandable in terms of conventional geotechnical principles. A corollary is that remoulded undrained strength, and not friction angle, should be used for basal resistance in numerical simulations. This hypothesis is testable via drilling and examining the structure at the soles of undersea debris avalanches for indications of incorporation of sheared marine sediments, by tests of soil properties, and by simulations. Such considerations of emplacement process are an aim of ongoing research in the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean Sea), where multiple offshore debris avalanche and dome-collapse debris deposits have been identified since 1999 on swath bathymetric surveys collected in five oceanographic cruises. This paper reviews the prehistoric and historic collapses that have occurred offshore of Antilles arc islands and summarizes ongoing research on emplacement processes.

Evidence for carbonate platform failure during rapid sea-level rise; ca 14 000 year old bioclastic flow deposits in the Lesser Antilles

Bioclastic flow deposits offshore from the Soufrie`re Hills volcano on Montserrat in the Lesser Antilles were deposited by the largest volume sediment flows near this active volcano in the last 26 kyr. The volume of these deposits exceeds that of the largest historic volcanic dome collapse in the world, which occurred on Montserrat in 2003. These flows were most probably generated by a large submarine slope failure of the carbonate shelf comprising the south west flank of Antigua or the east flank of Redonda; adjacent islands that are not volcanically active. The bioclastic flow deposits are relatively coarse-grained and either ungraded or poorly graded, and were deposited by non cohesive debris flow and high density turbidity currents. The bioclastic deposit often comprises multiple sub-units that cannot be correlated between core sites; some located just 2 km apart. Multiple sub-units in the bioclastic deposit result from either flow reflection, stacking of multiple debris flow lobes, and/or multi-stage collapse of the initial landslide. This study provides unusually precise constraints on the age of this mass flow event that occurred at ca 14 ka. Few large submarine landslides have been well dated, but the slope failures that have been dated are commonly associated with periods of rapid sea-level change.

Eruption of Soufrière Hills (1995–2009) from an offshore perspective : insights from repeated swath bathymetry surveys

This contribution provides an analysis of the 1995–2009 eruptive period of Soufrière Hills volcano (Montserrat) from a unique offshore perspective. The methodology is based on five repeated swath bathymetric surveys. The difference between the 2009 and 1999 bathymetry suggests that at least 395 Mm3 of material has entered the sea. This proximal deposit reaches 95 m thick and extends ∼7km from shore. However, the difference map does not include either the finer distal part of the submarine deposit or the submarine part of the delta close to the shoreline. We took both contributions into account by using additional information such as that from marine sediment cores. By March 2009, at least 65% of the material erupted throughout the eruption has been deposited into the sea. This work provides an excellent basis for assessing the future activity of the Soufrière Hills volcano (including potential collapse), and other volcanoes on small islands.

Submarine deposition of volcaniclastic material from the 1995-2005 eruptions of Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat

Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, has been erupting since 1995. During the current eruption, a large part of the material produced by the volcano has been transported into the sea, modifying the morphology of the submarine flanks of the volcano. We present a unique set of swath bathymetric data collected offshore from Montserrat in 1999, 2002 and 2005. From 1999 to 2002, pyroclastic flows associated with numerous dome collapses entered the sea to produce 100 Mm3 deposit. From 2002 to 2005, the 290 Mm3 submarine deposit is mainly from the 12–13 July 2003 collapse. These data allow us to estimate that, by May 2005, at least 482 Mm3 of material had been deposited on the sea floor since 1995. We compare on-land characteristics and volumes of dome collapse events with the submarine deposits and propose a new analysis of their emplacement on the submarine flanks of the volcano. The deposition mechanism shows a slope dependence, with the maximum thickness of deposit before the break in the slope, probably because of the type of the dense granular flow involved. We conclude that from 1995 to 2005 more than 75% of the erupted volume entered the sea.

Relating vehicle generated pollutants to urban stormwater quality

Rapid urbanisation and resulting continuous increase in traffic has been recognised as key factors in the contribution of increased pollutant loads to urban stormwater and in turn to receiving waters. Urbanisation primarily increases anthropogenic activities and the percentage of impervious surfaces in urban areas. These processes are collectively responsible for urban stormwater pollution. In this regard, urban traffic and land use related activities have been recognised as the primary pollutant sources. This is primarily due to the generation of a range of key pollutants such as solids, heavy metals and PAHs. Appropriate treatment system design is the most viable approach to mitigate stormwater pollution. However, limited understanding of the pollutant process and transport pathways constrains effective treatment design. This highlights necessity for the detailed understanding of traffic and other land use related pollutants processes and pathways in relation to urban stormwater pollution. This study has created new knowledge in relation to pollutant processes and transport pathways encompassing atmospheric pollutants, atmospheric deposition and build-up on ground surfaces of traffic generated key pollutants. The research study was primarily based on in-depth experimental investigations. This thesis describes the extensive knowledge created relating to the processes of atmospheric pollutant build-up, atmospheric deposition and road surface build-up and establishing their relationships as a chain of processes. The analysis of atmospheric deposition revealed that both traffic and land use related sources contribute total suspended particulate matter (TSP) to the atmosphere. Traffic sources become dominant during weekdays whereas land use related sources become dominant during weekends due to the reduction in traffic sources. The analysis further concluded that atmospheric TSP, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals (HMs) concentrations are highly influenced by total average daily heavy duty traffic, traffic congestion and the fraction of commercial and industrial land uses. A set of mathematical equation were developed to predict TSP, PAHs and HMs concentrations in the atmosphere based on the influential traffic and land use related parameters. Dry deposition samples were collected for different antecedent dry days and wet deposition samples were collected immediately after rainfall events. The dry deposition was found to increase with the antecedent dry days and consisted of relatively coarser particles (greater than 1.4 ìm) when compared to wet deposition. The wet deposition showed a strong affinity to rainfall depth, but was not related to the antecedent dry period. It was also found that smaller size particles (less than 1.4 ìm) travel much longer distances from the source and deposit mainly with the wet deposition. Pollutants in wet deposition are less sensitive to the source characteristics compared to dry deposition. Atmospheric deposition of HMs is not directly influenced by land use but rather by proximity to high emission sources such as highways. Therefore, it is important to consider atmospheric deposition as a key pollutant source to urban stormwater in the vicinity of these types of sources. Build-up was analysed for five different particle size fractions, namely, <1 ìm, 1-75 ìm, 75-150 ìm, 150-300 ìm and >300 ìm for solids, PAHs and HMs. The outcomes of the study indicated that PAHs and HMs in the <75 ìm size fraction are generated mainly by traffic related activities whereas the > 150 ìm size fraction is generated by both traffic and land use related sources. Atmospheric deposition is an important source for HMs build-up on roads, whereas the contribution of PAHs from atmospheric sources is limited. A comprehensive approach was developed to predict traffic and other land use related pollutants in urban stormwater based on traffic and other land use characteristics. This approach primarily included the development of a set of mathematical equations to predict traffic generated pollutants by linking traffic and land use characteristics to stormwater quality through mathematical modelling. The outcomes of this research will contribute to the design of appropriate treatment systems to safeguard urban receiving water quality for future traffic growth scenarios. The „real world. application of knowledge generated was demonstrated through mathematical modelling of solids in urban stormwater, accounting for the variability in traffic and land use characteristics.

Hardness of silicon nitride thin films characterised by nanoindentation and nanoscratch deconvolution methods

Plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition silicon nitride thin films are widely used in microelectromechanical system devices as structural materials because the mechanical properties of those films can be tailored by adjusting deposition conditions. However, accurate measurement of the mechanical properties, such as hardness, of films with thicknesses at nanometric scale is challenging. In the present study, the hardness of the silicon nitride films deposited on silicon substrate under different deposit conditions was characterised using nanoindentation and nanoscratch deconvolution methods. The hardness values obtained from the two methods were compared. The effect of substrate on the measured results was discussed.

Suspended sediment properties and suspended sediment flux estimates in an inundated urban environment during a major flood event

During a major flood event, the inundation of urban environments leads to some complicated flow motion most often associated with significant sediment fluxes. In the present study, a series of field measurements were conducted in an inundated section of the City of Brisbane (Australia) about the peak of a major flood in January 2011. Some experiments were performed to use ADV backscatter amplitude as a surrogate estimate of the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) during the flood event. The flood water deposit samples were predominantly silty material with a median particle size about 25 μm and they exhibited a non-Newtonian behavior under rheological testing. In the inundated urban environment during the flood, estimates of suspended sediment concentration presented a general trend with increasing SSC for decreasing water depth. The suspended sediment flux data showed some substantial sediment flux amplitudes consistent with the murky appearance of floodwaters. Altogether the results highlighted the large suspended sediment loads and fluctuations in the inundated urban setting associated possibly with a non-Newtonian behavior. During the receding flood, some unusual long-period oscillations were observed (periods about 18 min), although the cause of these oscillations remains unknown. The field deployment was conducted in challenging conditions highlighting a number of practical issues during a natural disaster.

WebPut : Efficient web-based data imputation

In this paper, we present WebPut, a prototype system that adopts a novel web-based approach to the data imputation problem. Towards this, Webput utilizes the available information in an incomplete database in conjunction with the data consistency principle. Moreover, WebPut extends effective Information Extraction (IE) methods for the purpose of formulating web search queries that are capable of effectively retrieving missing values with high accuracy. WebPut employs a confidence-based scheme that efficiently leverages our suite of data imputation queries to automatically select the most effective imputation query for each missing value. A greedy iterative algorithm is also proposed to schedule the imputation order of the different missing values in a database, and in turn the issuing of their corresponding imputation queries, for improving the accuracy and efficiency of WebPut. Experiments based on several real-world data collections demonstrate that WebPut outperforms existing approaches.

Lysosomal secretion of Flightless I upon injury has the potential to alter inflammation

Intracellular Flightless I (Flii), a gelsolin family member, has been found to have roles modulating actin regulation, transcriptional regulation and inflammation. In vivo Flii can regulate wound healing responses. We have recently shown that a pool of Flii is secreted by fibroblasts and macrophages, cells typically found in wounds, and its secretion can be upregulated upon wounding. We show that secreted Flii can bind to the bacterial cell wall component lipopolysaccharide and has the potential to regulate inflammation. We now show that secreted Flii is present in both acute and chronic wound fluid.

Statutory right to rescind contract remained available to buyer subject to specific performance decree

The aftermath of the Queensland floods of January 2011 continues to be played out in the courts. The effect of the floods on such a large scale has awakened the use of some statutory provisions that have not previously been litigated .Section 64 of the Property Law Act 1974 (Qld) is such a section. A version of this provision appears as s 34 of the Sale of Land Act 1982 (Vic). Broadly speaking, these sections permit a buyer of a dwelling house which has been damaged or destroyed between contract and completion to rescind the contract and recover their deposit provided that the rescission notice is given prior to "the date of completion or possession". The Court of Appeal decision of Dunworth v Mirvac Queensland Pty Ltd [2011] QCA 200 appears to be the first litigation upon the application of the section since it came into force in 1975.

Research data finder : an institutional metadata repository

QUT’s new metadata repository (data registry), Research Data Finder, has been designed to promote the visibility and discoverability of QUT research datasets. Funded by the Australian National Data Service (ANDS), it will provide a qualitative snapshot of research data outputs created or collected by members of the QUT research community that are available via open or mediated access. As a fully integrated metadata repository Research Data Finder aligns with institutional sources of truth, such as QUT’s research administrative system, ResearchMaster, as well as QUT’s Academic Profiles system to provide high quality data descriptions that increase awareness of, and access to, shareable research data. In addition, the repository and its workflows are designed to foster smoother data management practices, enhance opportunities for collaboration and research, promote cross-disciplinary research and maximize existing research datasets. The metadata schema used in Research Data Finder is the Registry Interchange Format - Collections and Services (RIF-CS), developed by ANDS in 2009. This comprehensive schema is potentially complex for researchers; unlike metadata for publications, which are often made publicly available with the official publication, metadata for datasets are not typically available and need to be created. Research Data Finder uses a hybrid self-deposit and mediated deposit system. In addition to automated ingests from ResearchMaster (research project information) and Academic Profiles system (researcher information), shareable data is identified at a number of key “trigger points” in the research cycle. These include: research grant proposals; ethics applications; Data Management Plans; Liaison Librarian data interviews; and thesis submissions. These ingested records can be supplemented with related metadata including links to related publications, such as those in QUT ePrints. Records deposited in Research Data Finder are harvested by ANDS and made available to a national and international audience via Research Data Australia, ANDS’ discovery service for Australian research data. Researcher and research group metadata records are also harvested by the National Library of Australia (NLA) and these records are then published in Trove (the NLA’s digital information portal). By contributing records to the national infrastructure, QUT data will become more visible. Within Australia and internationally, many funding bodies have already mandated the open access of publications produced from publicly funded research projects, such as those supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC), or the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). QUT will be well placed to respond to the rapidly evolving climate of research data management. This project is supported by the Australian National Data Service (ANDS). ANDS is supported by the Australian Government through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy Program and the Education Investment Fund (EIF) Super Science Initiative.

Timing and emplacement dynamics of newly recognised mass flow deposits at ~ 8–12 ka offshore Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat : how submarine stratigraphy can complement subaerial eruption histories

This contribution describes two mass movement deposits (total volume ~0.5 km3) identified in seven marine cores located 8 to 15 km offshore southern Montserrat, West Indies. The deposits were emplaced in the last 35 ka and have not previously been recognised in either the subaerial or distal submarine records. Age constraints, provided by radiocarbon dating, show that an explosive volcanic eruption occurred at ca 8–12 ka, emplacing a primary eruption-related deposit that overlies a large (~0.3 km3) reworked bioclastic and volcaniclastic flow deposit, formed from a shelf collapse between 8 and 35 ka. The origin of these deposits has been deduced through the correlation of marine sediment cores, component analysis and geochemical analysis. The 8–12 ka primary volcanic deposit was likely derived from a highly-erosive pyroclastic flow from the Soufrière Hills volcano that entered the ocean and mixed with the water column forming a water-supported density current. Previous investigations of the eruption record suggested that there was a hiatus in activity at the Soufrière Hills volcano between 16 and 6 ka. The ca 8–12 ka eruptive episode identified here shows that this hiatus was shorter than previously hypothesised, and thus highlights the importance of obtaining an accurate and completemarine record of events offshore from volcanic islands and incorporating such data into eruption history reconstructions. Comparisons with the submarine deposit characteristics of the 2003 dome collapse also suggests that the ~8–12 ka eruptive episode was more explosive than eruptions from the current eruptive episode.