Predicting deadline tansgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution.

More men than women make mucosal IgA antibodies to human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) and HPV-18: A study of oral HPV and oral HPV antibodies in a normal healthy population

Background: We have previously shown the high prevalence of oral anti-human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) antibodies in women with HPV-associated cervical neoplasia. It was postulated that the HPV antibodies were initiated after HPV antigenic stimulation at the cervix via the common mucosal immune system. The present study aimed to further evaluate the effectiveness of oral fluid testing for detecting the mucosal humoral response to HPV infection and to advance our limited understanding of the immune response to HPV. Methods: The prevalence of oral HPV infection and oral antibodies to HPV types 16, 18 and 11 was determined in a normal, healthy population of children, adolescents and adults, both male and female, attending a dental clinic. HPV types in buccal cells were determined by DNA sequencing. Oral fluid was collected from the gingival crevice of the mouth by the OraSure method. HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 antibodies in oral fluid were detected by virus-like particle-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. As a reference group 44 women with cervical neoplasia were included in the study. Results: Oral HPV infection was h ighest in children (9/114, 7.9%), followed by adolescents (4/78, 5.1%), and lowest in normal adults (4/116, 3.5%). The predominant HPV type found was HPV-13 (7/22, 31.8%) followed by HPV-32 (5/22, 22.7%). The prevalence of oral antibodies to HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 was low in children and increased substantially in adolescents and normal adults. Oral HPV-16 IgA was significantly more prevalent in women with cervical neoplasia (30/44, 68.2%) than the women from the dental clinic (18/69, 26.1% P = 0.0001). Significantly more adult men than women displayed oral HPV-16 IgA (30/47 compared with 18/69, OR 5.0, 95% CI 2.09-12.1, P < 0.001) and HPV-18 IgA (17/47 compared with 13/69, OR 2.4, 95% CI 0.97-6.2, P = 0.04). Conclusion: The increased prevalence of oral HPV antibodies in adolescent individuals compared with children was attributed to the onset of sexual activity. The increased prevalence of oral anti-HPV IgA in men compared with women was noteworthy considering reportedly fewer men than women make serum antibodies, and warrants further investigation. © 2006 Marais et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Viable chimaeric viruses confirm the biological importance of sequence specific maize streak virus movement protein and coat protein interactions

Background. A variety of interactions between up to three different movement proteins (MPs), the coat protein (CP) and genomic DNA mediate the inter- and intra-cellular movement of geminiviruses in the genus Begomovirus. Although movement of viruses in the genus Mastrevirus is less well characterized, direct interactions between a single MP and the CP of these viruses is also clearly involved in both intra- and intercellular trafficking of virus genomic DNA. However, it is currently unknown how specific these MP-CP interactions are, nor how disruption of these interactions might impact on virus viability. Results. Using chimaeric genomes of two strains of Maize streak virus (MSV) we adopted a genetic approach to investigate the gross biological effects of interfering with interactions between virus MP and CP homologues derived from genetically distinct MSV isolates. MP and CP genes were reciprocally exchanged, individually and in pairs, between maize (MSV-Kom)- and Setaria sp. (MSV-Set)-adapted isolates sharing 78% genome-wide sequence identity. All chimaeras were infectious in Zea mays c.v. Jubilee and were characterized in terms of symptomatology and infection efficiency. Compared with their parental viruses, all the chimaeras were attenuated in symptom severity, infection efficiency, and the rate at which symptoms appeared. The exchange of individual MP and CP genes resulted in lower infection efficiency and reduced symptom severity in comparison with exchanges of matched MP-CP pairs. Conclusion. Specific interactions between the mastrevirus MP and CP genes themselves and/or their expression products are important determinants of infection efficiency, rate of symptom development and symptom severity. © 2008 van der Walt et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Maize streak virus: An old and complex 'emerging' pathogen

Maize streak virus (MSV; Genus Mastrevirus, Family Geminiviridae) occurs throughout Africa, where it causes what is probably the most serious viral crop disease on the continent. It is obligately transmitted by as many as six leafhopper species in the Genus Cicadulina, but mainly by C. mbila Naudé and C. storeyi. In addition to maize, it can infect over 80 other species in the Family Poaceae. Whereas 11 strains of MSV are currently known, only the MSV-A strain is known to cause economically significant streak disease in maize. Severe maize streak disease (MSD) manifests as pronounced, continuous parallel chlorotic streaks on leaves, with severe stunting of the affected plant and, usuallly, a failure to produce complete cobs or seed. Natural resistance to MSV in maize, and/or maize infections caused by non-maize-adapted MSV strains, can result in narrow, interrupted streaks and no obvious yield losses. MSV epidemiology is primarily governed by environmental influences on its vector species, resulting in erratic epidemics every 3-10 years. Even in epidemic years, disease incidences can vary from a few infected plants per field, with little associated yield loss, to 100% infection rates and complete yield loss. Taxonomy: The only virus species known to cause MSD is MSV, the type member of the Genus Mastrevirus in the Family Geminiviridae. In addition to the MSV-A strain, which causes the most severe form of streak disease in maize, 10 other MSV strains (MSV-B to MSV-K) are known to infect barley, wheat, oats, rye, sugarcane, millet and many wild, mostly annual, grass species. Seven other mastrevirus species, many with host and geographical ranges partially overlapping those of MSV, appear to infect primarily perennial grasses. Physical properties: MSV and all related grass mastreviruses have single-component, circular, single-stranded DNA genomes of approximately 2700 bases, encapsidated in 22 × 38-nm geminate particles comprising two incomplete T = 1 icosahedra, with 22 pentameric capsomers composed of a single 32-kDa capsid protein. Particles are generally stable in buffers of pH 4-8. Disease symptoms: In infected maize plants, streak disease initially manifests as minute, pale, circular spots on the lowest exposed portion of the youngest leaves. The only leaves that develop symptoms are those formed after infection, with older leaves remaining healthy. As the disease progresses, newer leaves emerge containing streaks up to several millimetres in length along the leaf veins, with primary veins being less affected than secondary or tertiary veins. The streaks are often fused laterally, appearing as narrow, broken, chlorotic stripes, which may extend over the entire length of severely affected leaves. Lesion colour generally varies from white to yellow, with some virus strains causing red pigmentation on maize leaves and abnormal shoot and flower bunching in grasses. Reduced photosynthesis and increased respiration usually lead to a reduction in leaf length and plant height; thus, maize plants infected at an early stage become severely stunted, producing undersized, misshapen cobs or giving no yield at all. Yield loss in susceptible maize is directly related to the time of infection: Infected seedlings produce no yield or are killed, whereas plants infected at later times are proportionately less affected. Disease control: Disease avoidance can be practised by only planting maize during the early season when viral inoculum loads are lowest. Leafhopper vectors can also be controlled with insecticides such as carbofuran. However, the development and use of streak-resistant cultivars is probably the most effective and economically viable means of preventing streak epidemics. Naturally occurring tolerance to MSV (meaning that, although plants become systemically infected, they do not suffer serious yield losses) has been found, which has primarily been attributed to a single gene, msv-1. However, other MSV resistance genes also exist and improved resistance has been achieved by concentrating these within individual maiz genotypes. Whereas true MSV immunity (meaning that plants cannot be symptomatically infected by the virus) has been achieved in lines that include multiple small-effect resistance genes together with msv-1, it has proven difficult to transfer this immunity into commercial maize genotypes. An alternative resistance strategy using genetic engineering is currently being investigated in South Africa. Useful websites: 〈http://www.mcb.uct.ac.za/MSV/mastrevirus.htm〉; 〈http://www. danforthcenter.org/iltab/geminiviridae/geminiaccess/mastrevirus/Mastrevirus. htm〉. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we prompt the participant with the expected risk that a given fault will occur given the particular input. These risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions and considering process data, involved resources, task durations and contextual information like task frequencies. The approach has been implemented in the YAWL system and its effectiveness evaluated. The results show that the process instances executed in the tests complete with substantially fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when taking into account the recommendations provided by our technique.

Recruitment and results of a pilot trial of vitamin D supplementation in the general population of Australia

Context: The benefits of high serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] are unclear. Trials are needed to establish an appropriate evidence base. Objective: We plan to conduct a large-scale trial of vitamin D supplementation for the reduction of cancer incidence and overall mortality and report here the methods and results of a pilot trial established to inform its design. Design: Pilot D-Health was a randomized trial carried out in a general community setting with 12 months intervention and follow-up. Participants: Participants were 60- to 84-yr-old residents of one of the four eastern Australian states who did not have any vitamin D-related disorders and who were not taking more than 400 IU supplementary vitamin D per day. A total of 644 participants were randomized, and 615 completed the study (two persons withdrew because of nonserious adverse events). Interventions: The interventions were monthly doses of placebo or 30,000 or 60,000 IU vitamin D3. Main Outcomes: The main outcomes were the recruitment rate and changes in serum 25(OH)D. Results: Ten percent of those approached were recruited. At baseline, the mean 25(OH)D was 42 nmol/liter in all three study arms. The mean change in 25(OH)D in the placebo group was 0.12 nmol/liter, compared with changes of 22 and 36 nmol/liter in the 30,000- and 60,000-IU groups, respectively. Conclusions: The D-Health pilot has shown that a large trial is feasible in Australia and that a dose of 2000 IU/d will be needed to ensure that a large proportion of the population reaches the target serum 25(OH)D level. Copyright © 2012 by The Endocrine Society.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Model-driven process configuration of enterprise systems

The configuration of comprehensive enterprise systems to meet the specific requirements of an organisation up to today is consuming significant resources. The results of failing or delayed enterprise system implementation projects are severe and may even threaten the organisation’s existence. One of the main drivers for implementing comprehensive enterprise systems is to streamline business processes. However, an intuitive conceptual support for business process configuration is insufficiently addressed by enterprise system vendors and inadequately researched in academia. This paper presents a model-driven approach to target this problem and proposes several configuration patterns that describe generic patterns of configuration alternatives, in order to understand what situations can occur during business process configuration. Based on these configuration patterns, a configuration notation is introduced that allows for visually highlighting configuration alternatives. Finally, we will sketch how configurable Event Driven Process Chains and the configuration of business processes can be supported using relational databases.

Vitamin D status and skin cancer risk independent of time outdoors : 11-year prospective study in and Australian community

Vitamin D may have anti-skin cancer effects, but population-based evidence is lacking. We therefore assessed associations between vitamin D status and skin cancer risk in an Australian subtropical community. We analyzed prospective skin cancer incidence for 11 years following baseline assessment of serum 25(OH)-vitamin D in 1,191 adults (average age 54 years) and used multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust risk estimates for age, sex, detailed assessments of usual time spent outdoors, phenotypic characteristics, and other possible confounders. Participants with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) versus those below 75 nmol  l(-1) more often developed basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR)=1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.07, P=0.01) and melanoma (OR=2.71 (95% CI: 0.98-7.48, P=0.05)). Squamous cell carcinoma incidence tended to be lower in persons with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) compared with those below 75 nmol  l(-1) (OR=0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-1.03, P=0.07)). Vitamin D status was not associated with skin cancer incidence when participants were classified as above or below 50 nmol  l(-1) 25(OH)-vitamin D. Our findings do not indicate that the carcinogenicity of high sun exposure can be counteracted by high vitamin D status. High sun exposure is to be avoided as a means to achieve high vitamin D status.

Business process variability modeling : A survey

It is common for organizations to maintain multiple variants of a given business process, such as multiple sales processes for different products or multiple bookkeeping processes for different countries. Conventional business process modeling languages do not explicitly support the representation of such families of process variants. This gap triggered significant research efforts over the past decade leading to an array of approaches to business process variability modeling. This survey examines existing approaches in this field based on a common set of criteria and illustrates their key concepts using a running example. The analysis shows that existing approaches are characterized by the fact that they extend a conventional process mod- eling language with constructs that make it able to capture customizable process models. A customizable process model represents a family of process variants in a way that each variant can be derived by adding or deleting fragments according to configuration parameters or according to a domain model. The survey puts into evidence an abundance of customizable process modeling languages, embodying a diverse set of con- structs. In contrast, there is comparatively little tool support for analyzing and constructing customizable process models, as well as a scarcity of empirical evaluations of languages in the field.

Graphyne and graphdiyne : versatile catalysts for dehydrogenation of light metal complex hydrides

The interaction between new two-dimensional carbon allotropes, i.e. graphyne (GP) and graphdiyne (GD), and light metal complex hydrides LiAlH4, LiBH4, and NaAlH4 was studied using density functional theory (DFT) incorporating long range van der Waals dispersion correction. The light metal complex hydrides show much stronger interaction with GP and GP than that with fullerene due to the well defined pore structure. Such strong interactions greatly affect the degree of charge donation from the alkali metal atom to AlH4 or BH4, consequently destabilizing the Al-H or B-H bonds. Compared to the isolated light metal complex hydride, the presence of GP or GD can lead to a significant reduction of the hydrogen removal energy. Most interestingly, the hydrogen removal energies for LiBHx on GP and with GD are found to be lowered at all the stages (x from 4 to 1) whereas the H-removal energy in the third stage is increased for LiBH4 on fullerene. In addition, the presence of uniformly distributed pores on GP and GD is expected to facilitate the dehydrogenation of light metal complex hydrides. The present results highlight new interesting materials to catalyze light metal complex hydrides for potential application as media for hydrogen storage. Since GD has been successfully synthesized in a recent experiment, we hope the present work will stimulate further experimental investigations in this direction.

Effect of vitamin D supplementation on antibiotic use : a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Observational data suggested that supplementation with vitamin D could reduce risk of infection, but trial data are inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine the effect of oral vitamin D supplementation on antibiotic use. DESIGN: We conducted a post hoc analysis of data from pilot D-Health, which is a randomized trial carried out in a general community setting between October 2010 and February 2012. A total of 644 Australian residents aged 60-84 y were randomly assigned to receive monthly doses of a placebo (n = 214) or 30,000 (n = 215) or 60,000 (n = 215) IU oral cholecalciferol for ≤12 mo. Antibiotics prescribed during the intervention period were ascertained by linkage with pharmacy records through the national health insurance scheme (Medicare Australia). RESULTS: People who were randomly assigned 60,000 IU cholecalciferol had nonsignificant 28% lower risk of having antibiotics prescribed at least once than did people in the placebo group (RR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.48, 1.07). In analyses stratified by age, in subjects aged ≥70 y, there was a significant reduction in antibiotic use in the high-dose vitamin D compared with placebo groups (RR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.32, 0.90), whereas there was no effect in participants <70 y old (RR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.58, 1.97) (P-interaction = 0.1). CONCLUSION: Although this study was a post hoc analysis and statistically nonsignificant, this trial lends some support to the hypothesis that supplementation with 60,000 IU vitamin D/mo is associated with lower risk of infection, particularly in older adults. The trial was registered at the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (anzctr.org.au) as ACTRN12609001063202.

Postoperative chemotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Postoperative chemotherapy is currently not recommended for resected non-small cell lung cancer in many countries and centers. Recently, results of several large randomized clinical trials were reported with conflicting evidence. Accordingly, we sought to determine whether postoperative chemotherapy is associated with improved survival compared with that after surgical intervention alone. Methods Randomized clinical trials with cisplatin- or uracil plus ftorafur-containing regimens were included and evaluated separately. A systematic review that included randomized clinical trials performed before 1995 was identified and found to be of adequate quality. Further randomized controlled trials were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register from 1995 through 2004. In addition, the reference lists of articles and conference abstracts were searched. The logarithm of the hazard ratio and its standard error were calculated, and a fixed-effect model was used to combine the estimates. Results There were 7200 patients enrolled in 19 trials included in the analyses. An overall estimate of 13% relative reduction in mortality (95% confidence interval, 7%-19%) was found. There was 11% relative reduction in mortality associated with postoperative cisplatin (95% confidence interval, 4%-18%; P = .004) and 17% associated with uracil plus ftorafur (95% confidence interval, 5%-27%; P = .006) compared with that after surgical intervention alone. This means that there would be an additional survivor at 5 years for 25 patients treated with cisplatin or for 30 patients treated with uracil plus ftorafur. Conclusions Postoperative chemotherapy is associated with improved survival compared with that after surgical intervention alone. Selected patients with completely resected non-small cell lung cancer should be offered chemotherapy. Copyright © 2004 by The American Association for Thoracic Surgery.

Predictors of initiating and maintaining active commuting to work using transport and public health perspectives in Australia

Objective To identify predictors for initiating and maintaining active commuting (AC) to work following the 2003 Australia's Walk to Work Day (WTWD) campaign. Methods Pre- and post-campaign telephone surveys of a cohort of working age (18–65years) adults (n = 1100, 55% response rate). Two dependent campaign outcomes were assessed: initiating or maintaining AC (i.e., walk/cycle and public transport) on a single day (WTWD), and increasing or maintaining health-enhancing active commuting (HEAC) level (≥ 30min/day) in a usual week following WTWD campaign. Results A significant population-level increase in HEAC (3.9%) was observed (McNemar's χ2 = 6.53, p = 0.01) with 136 (19.0%) achieving HEAC at post campaign. High confidence in incorporating walking into commute, being active pre-campaign and younger age (< 46years) were positively associated with both outcomes. The utility of AC for avoiding parking hassles (AOR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2–3.6), for less expense (AOR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1–3.1), for increasing one's health (AOR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1–5.6) and for clean air (AOR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.0–4.4) predicted HEAC outcome whereas avoiding the stress of driving (AOR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.4–5.0) and the hassle of parking predicted the single-day AC. Conclusions Transportation interventions targeting parking and costs could be further enhanced by emphasizing health benefits of AC. AC was less likely to occur among inactive employees.

International contact lens prescribing in 2009

This is the eighth consecutive year that we have presented data from a survey of international contact lens prescribing in Contact Lens Spectrum. In this article we report on an assessment of 25,801 fits across 28 contact lens markets located in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. As in previous years, we opted for a prospective approach to this work. Up to 1,000 survey forms were randomly disseminated in each market to contact lens practitioners (ophthalmologists, optometrists, and/or opticians depending on the market), and information about the first 10 patients prescribed with lenses after receipt of paper or electronic survey forms was anonymously recorded.