Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Effect of bifocal and prismatic bifocal spectacles on myopia progression in children

Importance Myopia is a significant public health problem, making it important to determine whether a bifocal spectacle treatment involving near prism slows myopia progression in children. Objective To determine whether bifocal and prismatic bifocal spectacles control myopia in children with high rates of myopia progression and to assess whether the treatment effect is dependent on the lag of accommodation and/or near phoria status. Design, Setting, and Participants This 3-year randomized clinical trial was conducted in a private practice. A total of 135 (73 female and 62 male) Chinese-Canadian children (aged 8-13 years; mean [SE] age, 10.29 [0.15] years; mean [SE] myopia, −3.08 [0.10] D) with myopia progression of at least 0.50 D in the preceding year were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 treatments. A total of 128 (94.8%) completed the trial. Interventions Single-vision lenses (control, n = 41), +1.50-D executive bifocals (n = 48), and +1.50-D executive bifocals with 3-Δ base-in prism in the near segment of each lens (n = 46). Main Outcomes and Measures Myopia progression (primary) measured using an automated refractor following cycloplegia and increase in axial length (secondary) measured using ultrasonography at intervals of 6 months for 36 months. Results Myopia progression over 3 years was an average (SE) of −2.06 (0.13) D for the single-vision lens group, −1.25 (0.10) D for the bifocal group, and −1.01 (0.13) D for the prismatic bifocal group. Axial length increased an average (SE) of 0.82 (0.05) mm, 0.57 (0.07) mm, and 0.54 (0.06) mm, respectively. The treatment effect of bifocals (0.81 D) and prismatic bifocals (1.05 D) was significant (P < .001). Both bifocal groups had less axial elongation (0.25 mm and 0.28 mm, respectively) than the single-vision lens group (P < .001). For children with high lags of accommodation (≥1.01 D), the treatment effect of both bifocals and prismatic bifocals was similar (1.1 D) (P < .001). For children with low lags (<1.01 D), the treatment effect of prismatic bifocals (0.99 D) was greater than of bifocals (0.50 D) (P = .03). The treatment effect of both bifocals and prismatic bifocals was independent of the near phoria status. Conclusions and Relevance Bifocal spectacles can slow myopia progression in children with an annual progression rate of at least 0.50 D after 3 years. These results suggest that prismatic bifocals are more effective for myopic children with low lags of accommodation.

Transport and health in China : recent collaborative research relating to vehicle factors and pollution

The nature of the transport system contributes to public health outcomes in a range of ways. The clearest contribution to public health is in the area of traffic crashes, because of their direct impact on individual death and disability and their direct costs to the health system. Other papers in this conference address these issues. This paper outlines some collaborative research between the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q) at QUT and Chinese researchers in areas that have indirect health impacts. Heavy vehicle dynamics: The integrity of the road surface influences crash risk, with ruts, pot-holes and other forms of road damage contributing to increased crash risks. The great majority of damage to the road surface from vehicles is caused by heavy trucks and buses, rather than cars or smaller vehicles. In some cases this damage is due to deliberate overloading, but in other cases it is due to vehicle suspension characteristics that lead to occasional high loads on particular wheels. Together with a visiting researcher and his colleagues, we have used both Queensland and Chinese data to model vehicle suspension systems that reduce the level of load, and hence the level of road damage and resulting crash risk(1-5). Toll worker exposure to vehicle emissions: The increasing construction of highways in China has also involved construction of a large number of toll roads. Tollbooth workers are potentially exposed to high levels of pollutants from vehicles, however the extent of this exposure and how it relates to standards for exposure are not well known. In a study led by a visiting researcher, we conducted a study to model these levels of exposure for a tollbooth in China(6). Noise pollution: The increasing presence of high speed roads in China has contributed to an increase in noise levels. In this collaborative study we modelled noise levels associated with a freeway widening near a university campus, and measures to reduce the noise(7). Along with these areas of research, there are many other areas of transport with health implications that are worthy of exploration. Traffic, noise and pollution contribute to a difficult environment for pedestrians, especially in an ageing society where there are health benefits to increasing physical activity. By building on collaborations such as those outlined, there is potential for a contribution to improved public health by addressing transport issues such as vehicle factors and pollution, and extending the research to other areas of travel activity. 1. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2014). Stiffness-damping matching method of an ECAS system based on LQG control. Journal of Central South University, 21:439-446. DOI: 10.1007/s1177101419579 2. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Feng, Z. and Chang, W. (2013). Comparison of two suspension control strategies for multi-axle heavy truck. Journal of Central South University, 20(2): 550-562. 3. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2013). Effect of driving conditions and suspension parameters on dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions. Science China Technological Sciences, 56(3): 666-676. DOI: 10.1007/s11431-012-5091-3 4. Chen, Y., He., J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2013). Model development and dynamic load-sharing analysis of longitudinal-connected air suspensions. Strojniški Vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 59(1):14-24. 5. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Liu, H. and Zhang, W. (2013). Dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer. Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Conference, Washington DC, 13-17 January 2013, paper no. 13-1117. 6. He, J., Qi, Z., Hang, W., King, M., and Zhao, C. (2011). Numerical evaluation of pollutant dispersion at a toll plaza based on system dynamics and Computational Fluid Dynamics models. Transportation Research Part C, 19(2011):510-520. 7. Zhang, C., He, J., Wang, Z., Yin, R. and King, M. (2013). Assessment of traffic noise level before and after freeway widening using traffic microsimulation and a refined classic noise prediction method. Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Conference, Washington DC, 13-17 January 2013, paper no. 13-2016.

Error and variance bounds on sigmoidal neurons with weight and input errors

Bounds on the expectation and variance of errors at the output of a multilayer feedforward neural network with perturbed weights and inputs are derived. It is assumed that errors in weights and inputs to the network are statistically independent and small. The bounds obtained are applicable to both digital and analogue network implementations and are shown to be of practical value.

Physical and functional implications of aquatic exercise for nursing home residents with dementia

Exercise has reported benefits for those with dementia. In the current study we investigated the feasibility of delivery and the physical and functional benefits of an innovative aquatic exercise program for adults with moderate to severe dementia living in a nursing home aged care facility. Ten adults (88.4 years, inter quartile range 12.3) participated twice weekly for 12 weeks. Anthropometric and grip strength data, and measures of physical function and balance were collected at baseline and post-intervention. Feasibility was assessed by attendance, participation, enjoyment and recruitment. Following exercise, participant's left hand grip strength had improved significantly (p = .017). Small to moderate effect sizes were observed for other measures. A number of delivery challenges emerged, but participant enjoyment, benefits and attendance suggest feasibility. Aquatic exercise shows promise as an intervention among those with dementia who live in a nursing home aged care facility. Greater program investigation is warranted.

A description of neck motor performance, neck pain, fatigue, and mental effort while driving in a sample with chronic whiplash-associated disorders

Objective: Individuals with chronic whiplash-associated disorders (WADs) often note driving as a difficult task. This study’s aims were to (1) compare, while driving, neck motor performance, mental effort, and fatigue in individuals with chronic WAD against healthy controls and (2) investigate the relationships of these variables and neck pain to self-reported driving difficulty in the WAD group. Design: This study involved 14 participants in each group (WAD and control). Measures included self-reported driving difficulty and measures of neck pain intensity, overall fatigue, mental effort, and neck motor performance (head rotation and upper trapezius activity) while driving a simulator. Results: The WAD group had greater absolute path of head rotation in a simulated city area and used greater mental effort (P = 0.04), but there were no differences in other measures while driving compared with the controls (all P Q 0.05). Self-reported driving difficulty correlated moderately with neck pain intensity, fatigue level, and maximum velocity of head rotation while driving in the WAD group (all P G 0.05). Conclusions: Individuals with chronic WAD do not seem to have impaired neck motor performance while driving yet use greater mental effort. Neck pain, fatigue, and maximum head rotation velocity could be potential contributors to self-reported driving difficulty in this group.

Effects of knowledge, testimonials, and Ad copy on cruise advertising judgments

Tourist individual differences, such as levels of knowledge, are increasingly recognized as influencing how people respond to information. However, little research has examined the role of consumer knowledge on responses to different components of cruise advertising information. Using input from an industry panel combined with insight and measures from the literature, the results of this field experiment show that consumer knowledge interacts with two aspects of advertising—testimonial expertise and advertising copy—to influence purchase intentions towards a cruise. The results offer important implications for researchers and tourism managers regarding how consumer knowledge influences which types of advertising information are most persuasive to consumers. Results also indicate that expert consumers have more favorable attitudes than novice consumers towards cruise advertising.

Examining the effectiveness of Police-Citizens Youth Clubs on crime prevention and community safety

PCYCs, individually and as a whole, are highly valued in communities across Queensland. Participants in this evaluation identified numerous benefits of PCYCs, including: providing structured low-cost activities for young people and other community groups; developing positive relationships and trust between young people and police; developing young people into effective citizens; providing a safe place for young people and a hub for whole communities; addressing disadvantages faced by young people; and fostering social inclusion. Depending on the particular activities and programs delivered by a branch, PCYCs have the capacity to minimise risk factors and enhance protective factors relating to young people’s involvement in crime. For example, PCYCs can play an important role in strengthening young people’s engagement with education and family. However, the crime prevention and community safety aims of PCYCs, and measures that might work towards these aims are not widely- or well-understood, or appreciated, by those working in and with PCYCs. The key recommendation of this evaluation is therefore that the crime prevention and community safety aims of PCYCs in Queensland need to be better articulated, understood and reflected in the practice of those working in and with PCYCs. A related key finding is that many of the activities and programs currently provided by PCYCs could be better oriented towards the goals of crime prevention and community safety without major resource implications.

Trainee-therapists are not all equal: Examination of therapeutic efficiency, effectiveness and early client dropout after 12 months of clinical training

Objective Contemporary research demonstrates the feasibility of assessing therapeutic performance of trainee-therapists through the use of objective measures of client treatment outcome. Further, significant variation between individual therapists based on their client treatment outcomes has been demonstrated. This study sets out to determine whether a reliable composite measure of therapeutic efficiency, effectiveness and early dropout can be developed and used to objectively compare trainee-therapists against each other. Design and methods Treatment outcomes of 611 clients receiving treatment from 58 trainee-therapists enrolled in a professional training programme were tracked with the OQ-45.2 over a 6-year period to assess therapeutic efficiency, therapeutic effectiveness and early client dropout. Results Significant variation between trainee-therapists was observed for each index. Findings of a moderately strong correlation between therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness enabled the ranking of trainee-therapists based upon a composite measure of these indexes. A non-significant correlation was found between early client dropout and measures of therapeutic effectiveness and efficiency. Conclusions The findings stress the importance of utilizing objective measures to track the treatment outcomes. Despite all trainee-therapists being enrolled in the same training programme, significant variation between trainee-therapists' therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness was found to exist. Practitioner points Developing of potential benchmarking tools that enable trainee-therapists, supervisors and educational institutions to quickly assess therapeutic performance can become part of a holistic assessment of a trainee-therapist's clinical development. Despite an inherent optimistic belief that therapists do not cause harm, there appears to be a small and significant proportion of trainee-therapists who consistently evidence little therapeutic change. Considerable variability in trainee-therapists' therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness can exist in the one training programme. Early client dropout may not be associated with therapists' therapeutic effectiveness and efficiency.

Environmental efficiency of energy, materials, and emissions

This study estimates the environmental efficiency of international listed firms in 10 worldwide sectors from 2007 to 2013 by applying an order-m method, a non-parametric approach based on free disposal hull with subsampling bootstrapping. Using a conventional output of gross profit and two conventional inputs of labor and capital, this study examines the order-m environmental efficiency accounting for the presence of each of 10 undesirable inputs/outputs and measures the shadow prices of each undesirable input and output. The results show that there is greater potential for the reduction of undesirable inputs rather than bad outputs. On average, total energy, electricity, or water usage has the potential to be reduced by 50%. The median shadow prices of undesirable inputs, however, are much higher than the surveyed representative market prices. Approximately 10% of the firms in the sample appear to be potential sellers or production reducers in terms of undesirable inputs/outputs, which implies that the price of each item at the current level has little impact on most of the firms. Moreover, this study shows that the environmental, social, and governance activities of a firm do not considerably affect environmental efficiency.

The development and piloting of the ISPCAN child abuse screening tool-parent version (ICAST-P)

Objective Child maltreatment is a problem that has longer recognition in the northern hemisphere and in high-income countries. Recent work has highlighted the nearly universal nature of the problem in other countries but demonstrated the lack of comparability of studies because of the variations in definitions and measures used. The International Society for the Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect has developed instrumentation that may be used with cross-cultural and cross-national benchmarking by local investigators. Design and sampling The instrument design began with a team of expert in Brisbane in 2004. A large bank of questions were subjected to two rounds of Delphi review to develop the fielded version of the instrument. Convenience samples included approximately 120 parent respondents with children under the age of 18 in each of six countries (697 total). Results This paper presents an instrument that measures parental behaviors directed at children and reports data from pilot work in 6 countries and 7 languages. Patterns of response revealed few missing values and distributions of responses that generally were similar in the six countries. Subscales performed well in terms of internal consistency with Cronbach's alpha in very good range (0.77–0.88) with the exception of the neglect and sex abuse subscales. Results varied by child age and gender in expected directions but with large variations among the samples. About 15% of children were shaken, 24% hit on the buttocks with an object, and 37% were spanked. Reports of choking and smothering were made by 2% of parents. Conclusion These pilot data demonstrate that the instrument is well tolerated and captures variations in, and potentially harmful forms of child discipline. Practice implications The ISPCAN Child Abuse Screening Tool – Parent Version (ICAST-P) has been developed as a survey instrument to be administered to parents for the assessment of child maltreatment in a multi-national and multi-cultural context. It was developed with broad input from international experts and subjected to Dephi review, translation, and pilot testing in six countries. The results of the Delphi study and pilot testing are presented. This study demonstrates that a single instrument can be used in a broad range of cultures and languages with low rates of missing data and moderate to high internal consistency.

Body composition and components of energy expenditure in children with end-stage liver disease

Background: Better understanding of body composition and energy metabolism in pediatric liver disease may provide a scientific basis for improved medical therapy aimed at achieving optimal nutrition, slowing progression to end-stage liver disease (ESLD), and improving the outcome of liver transplantation. Methods: Twenty-one children less than 2 years of age with ESLD awaiting liver transplantation and 15 healthy, aged-matched controls had body compartment analysis using a four compartment model (body cell mass, fat mass, extracellular water, and extracellular solids). Subjects also had measurements of resting energy expenditure (REE) and respiratory quotient (RQ) by indirect calorimetry. Nine patients and 15 control subjects also had measurements of total energy expenditure (TEE) using doubly labelled water. Results: Mean weights and heights were similar in the two groups. Compared with control subjects, children with ESLD had higher relative mean body cell mass (33 ± 2% vs 29 ± 1% of body weight, P < 0.05), but had similar fat mass, extracellular water, and extracellular solid compartments (18% vs 20%, 41% vs 38%, and 7% vs 13% of body weight respectively). Compared with control subjects, children with ESLD had 27% higher mean REE/body weight (0.285 ± 0.013 vs 0.218. ± 0.013 mJ/kg/24h, P < 0.001), 16% higher REE/unit cell mass (P < 0.05); and lower mean RQ (P < 0.05). Mean TEE of patients was 4.70 ± 0.49 mJ/24h vs 3.19 ± 0.76 in controls, (P < 0.01). Conclusions: In children, ESLD is a hypermetabolic state adversely affecting the relationship between metabolic and non-metabolic body compartments. There is increased metabolic activity within the body cell mass with excess lipid oxidation during fasting and at rest. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate nutritional therapy.

The effects of psychosocial factors on the mother's emotional well-being during early parenthood: A cross-cultural study of Britain and Greece

The effect of psychosocial factors on the emotional well-being of mothers following childbirth were examined within the cultural contexts of Britain and Greece. These mothers had already completed questionnaires during pregnancy and were contacted a second time in the postpartum period. At 4–6 weeks postpartum a sample of 165 Greek mothers and 101 British mothers and their partners completed the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. The relationship between mothers' EPDS scores and measures of emotional well-being in pregnancy (CCEI), social support, life events, fathers' EPDS score, and father's perception of change in partner was examined in each culture. No difference in the distribution of EPDS scores in each culture was found. Social support and life events were found to predict postnatal depression in both cultures. Additionally, in Greece, emotional well-being in pregnancy made a separate contribution to prediction. The major difference between the two cultures was in the relationship between mothers and their partners. Greek fathers were more emotionally and physically distanced from their partners during pregnancy, birth and early parenthood and perceived their partners as being more changed by the transition to parenthood. These differences were not reflected in differences in emotional well-being possibly because they accord with social expectation in each culture.

The Routledge Companion to Social Media and Politics

Social media are now widely used for political protests, campaigns, and communication in developed and developing nations, but available research has not yet paid sufficient attention to experiences beyond the US and UK. This collection tackles this imbalance head-on, compiling cutting-edge research across six continents to provide a comprehensive, global, up-to-date review of recent political uses of social media. Drawing together empirical analyses of the use of social media by political movements and in national and regional elections and referenda, The Routledge Companion to Social Media and Politics presents studies ranging from Anonymous and the Arab Spring to the Greek Aganaktismenoi, and from South Korean presidential elections to the Scottish independence referendum. The book is framed by a selection of keystone theoretical contributions, evaluating and updating existing frameworks for the social media age. "Comprehensive and definitive, this is an outstanding book that provides a panoramic view of politics in an era of social media. From the Mediterranean to East Asia to Oceania, from Scandinavia to sub-Sahara Africa to Latin America, the volume as a whole is truly global, yet with nuanced regional and national analyses in each chapter. Theoretically informed, the research presented here breaks new empirical grounds using latest digital methods. The result is a milestone for our collective understanding of new media technology and comparative politics in the twenty-first century." ―Jack Linchuan Qiu, The Chinese University of Hong Kong "This book brings together top scholars from across disciplines and across the globe to examine social media use in a variety of political systems and for distinct purposes. It is required reading for anyone interested in understanding the many ways that digital communication technologies now are used in political life." ―Jennifer Stromer-Galley, Syracuse University

The role of moral disengagement in underage drinking and heavy episodic drinking

Objectives The current study had two aims. First, to develop a moral disengagement scale contextualized to underage drinking. Second, to investigate Bandura’s (1986) self-regulatory model within the context of underage drinking. Method Two different samples of students participated in the study. The first sample included 619 (362 females) adolescents (Mage = 15.3 years, SD = 1.09 years) and the second sample 636 (386 females) adolescents (Mage = 15.3 years, SD = 1.03 years). Students in the first sample completed the Underage Drinking Disengagement Scale (UDDS), and measures of engagement in underage drinking and heavy episodic drinking. Students in the second sample completed these measures as well as scales of general moral disengagement, personal standards and anticipatory guilt associated with underage drinking. Results For the UDDS, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses verified a single factor structure. The UDDS was more strongly associated with engagement in underage drinking and heavy episodic drinking than a general measure of moral disengagement. A moderated mediation analysis revealed that adolescents who negatively evaluated underage drinking reported more anticipatory guilt, and more anticipatory guilt was associated with less engagement in underage drinking and less heavy episodic drinking. This relationship was weaker at high compared to low levels of underage drinking disengagement. Conclusions/Importance Understanding how adolescents self-regulate their drinking, and ways that such self-regulation may be deactivated or disengaged, may help identify those adolescents at increased risk of drinking underage and of engaging in heavy episodic drinking.