Taxonomy for rainfall events based on pollutant wash-off potential in urban areas

Conventional rainfall classification for modelling and prediction is quantity based. This approach can lead to inaccuracies in stormwater quality modelling due to the assignment of stochastic pollutant parameters to a rainfall event. A taxonomy for natural rainfall events in the context of stormwater quality is presented based on an in-depth investigation of the influence of rainfall characteristics on stormwater quality. In the research study, the natural rainfall events were classified into three types based on average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration and the classification was found to be independent of the catchment characteristics. The proposed taxonomy provides an innovative concept in stormwater quality modelling and prediction and will contribute to enhancing treatment design for stormwater quality mitigation.

Winter Harmonica

Poem

Piecing together an integrative taxonomic puzzle: microsatellite, wing shape and aedeagus length analyses of Bactrocera dorsalis s.l. (Diptera: Tephritidae) find no evidence of multiple lineages in a proposed contact zone along the Thai/Malay Peninsula

Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and B. papayae Drew & Hancock represent a closely related sibling species pair for which the biological species limits are unclear; i.e., it is uncertain if they are truely two biological species, or one biological species which has been incorrectly taxonomically split. The geographic ranges of the two taxa are thought to abut or overlap on or around the Isthmus of Kra, a recognised biogeographic barrier located on the narrowest portion of the Thai Peninsula. We collected fresh material of B. dorsalis sensu lato (i.e., B. dorsalis sensu stricto + B. papayae) in a north-south transect down the Thai Peninsula, from areas regarded as being exclusively B. dorsalis s.s., across the Kra Isthmus, and into regions regarded as exclusively B. papayae. We carried out microsatellite analyses and took measurements of male genitalia and wing shape. Both the latter morphological tests have been used previously to separate these two taxa. No significant population structuring was found in the microsatellite analysis and results were consistent with an interpretation of one, predominantly panmictic population. Both morphological datasets showed consistent, clinal variation along the transect, with no evidence for disjunction. No evidence in any tests supported historical vicariance driven by the Isthmus of Kra, and none of the three datasets supported the current taxonomy of two species. Rather, within and across the area of range overlap or abutment between the two species, only continuous morphological and genetic variation was recorded. Recognition that morphological traits previously used to separate these taxa are continuous, and that there is no genetic evidence for population segregation in the region of suspected species overlap, is consistent with a growing body of literature that reports no evidence of biological differentiation between these taxa.

Determination of coastal ground and surface water processes and character by use of hydrochemistry and stable isotopes, Fraser Coast, Queensland

This study was part of an integrated project developed in response to concerns regarding current and future land practices affecting water quality within coastal catchments and adjacent marine environments. Two forested coastal catchments on the Fraser Coast, Australia, were chosen as examples of low-modification areas with similar geomorphological and land-use characteristics to many other coastal zones in southeast Queensland. For this component of the overall project, organic , physico-chemical (Eh, pH and DO), ionic (Fe2+, Fe3+), and isotopic (ä13CDIC, ä15NDIN ä34SSO4) data were used to characterise waters and identify sources and processes contributing to concentrations and form of dissolved Fe, C, N and S within the ground and surface waters of these coastal catchments. Three sites with elevated Fe concentrations are discussed in detail. These included a shallow pool with intermittent interaction with the surface water drainage system, a monitoring well within a semi-confined alluvial aquifer, and a monitoring well within the fresh/saline water mixing zone adjacent to an estuary. Conceptual models of processes occurring in these environments are presented. The primary factors influencing Fe transport were; microbial reduction of Fe3+ oxyhydroxides in groundwaters and in the hyporheic zone of surface drainage systems, organic input available for microbial reduction and Fe3+ complexation, bacterial activity for reduction and oxidation, iron curtain effects where saline/fresh water mixing occurs, and variation in redox conditions with depth in ground and surface water columns. Data indicated that groundwater seepage appears a more likely source of Fe to coastal waters (during periods of low rainfall) via tidal flux. The drainage system is ephemeral and contributes little discharge to marine waters. However, data collected during a high rainfall event indicated considerable Fe loads can be transported to the estuary mouth from the catchment.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

The analogue shear zone : from rheology to associated geometry

The geometry of ductile strain localization phenomena is related to the rheology of the deformed rocks. Both qualitative and quantitative rheological properties of natural rocks have been estimated from finite field structures such as folds and shear zones. We apply physical modelling to investigate the relationship between rheology and the temporal evolution of the width and transversal strain distribution in shear zones, both of which have been used previously as rheological proxies. Geologically relevant materials with well-characterized rheological properties (Newtonian, strain hardening, strain softening, Mohr-Coulomb) are deformed in a shear box and observed with Particle Imaging Velocimetry (PIV). It is shown that the width and strain distribution histories in model shear zones display characteristic finite responses related to material properties as predicted by previous studies. Application of the results to natural shear zones in the field is discussed. An investigation of the impact of 3D boundary conditions in the experiments demonstrates that quantitative methods for estimating rheology from finite natural structures must take these into account carefully.

Influence of Rainfall and Catchment Characteristics on Urban Stormwater Quality

The accuracy and reliability of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes are important for stormwater management decision making. The commonly adopted approach where only a limited number of factors are used to predict urban stormwater quality may not adequately represent the complexity of the quality response to a rainfall event or site-to-site differences to support efficient treatment design. This paper discusses an investigation into the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality in order to investigate the potential areas for errors in current stormwater quality modelling practices. It was found that the influence of rainfall characteristics on pollutant wash-off is step-wise based on specific thresholds. This means that a modelling approach where the wash-off process is predicted as a continuous function of rainfall intensity and duration is not appropriate. Additionally, other than conventional catchment characteristics, namely, land use and impervious surface fraction, other catchment characteristics such as impervious area layout, urban form and site specific characteristics have an important influence on both, pollutant build-up and wash-off processes. Finally, the use of solids as a surrogate to estimate other pollutant species was found to be inappropriate. Individually considering build-up and wash-off processes for each pollutant species should be the preferred option.