Photocatalytic hydrogen production with iron oxide under solar irradiation

As solar hydrogen is a sustainable and environmental friendly energy carrier, it is considered to take the place of fossil fuels in the near future. Solar hydrogen can be generated by splitting of water under solar light illumination. In this study, the use of nanostructured hematite thin-film electrodes in photocatalytic water splitting was investigated. Hematite (á-Fe2O3) has a narrow band-gap of 2.2 eV, which is able to utilise approximately 40% of solar radiation. However, poor photoelectrochemical performance is observed for hematite due to low electrical conductivity and a high rate of electron-hole recombination. An extensive review of useful measures taken to overcoming the disadvantages of hematite so as to enhance its performance was presented including thin-film structure, nanostructuring, doping, etc. Since semiconductoring materials which exhibit an inverse opal structure are expected to have a high surface-volume ratio, unique optical characteristics and a shorter distance for photogenerated holes to travel to the electrode/electrolyte interface, inverse opals of hematite thin films deposited on FTO glass substrate were successfully prepared by doctor blading using PMMA as a template. However, due to the poor adhesion of the films, an acidic medium (i.e., 2 M HCl) was employed to significantly enhance the adhesion of the films, which completely destroyed the inverse opal structure. Therefore, undoped, Ti and Zn-doped hematite thin films deposied on FTO glass substrate without an inverse opal structure were prepared by doctor blading and spray pyrolysis and characterised using SEM, EDX, XRD, TGA, UV-Vis spectroscopy and photoelectrochemical measurements. Regarding the doped hematite thin films prepared by doctor blading, the photoelectrochemical activity of the hematite photoelectrodes was improved by incorporation of Ti, most likely owing to the increased electrical conductivity of the films, the stabilisation of oxygen vacancies by Ti4+ ions and the increased electric field of the space charge layer. A highest photoresponse was recorded in case of 2.5 at.% Ti which seemed to be an optimal concentration. The effect of doping content, thickness, and calcination temperature on the performance of the Ti-doped photoelectrodes was investigated. Also, the photoactivity of the 2.5 at.% Ti-doped samples was examined in two different types of electrochemical cells. Zn doping did not enhance the photoactivity of the hematite thin films though Zn seemed to enhance the hole transport due to the slow hole mobility of hematite which could not be overcome by the enhancement. The poor performance was also obtained for the Ti-doped samples prepared by spray pyrolysis, which appeared to be a result of introduction of impurities from the metallic parts of the spray gun in an acidic medium. Further characterisation of the thin-film electrodes is required to explain the mechanism by which enhanced performance was obtained for Ti-doped electrodes (doctor blading) and poor photoactivity for Zn and Ti-doped samples which were synthesised by doctor blading and spray pyrolysis, respectively. Ti-doped hematite thin films will be synthesised in another way, such as dip coating so as to maintain an inverse opal structure as well as well adhesion. Also, a comparative study of the films will be carried out.

Properties of lignin and poly(hydroxybutyrate) blends

The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) allows the presentation of a thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the format of published or submitted papers, where such papers have been published, accepted or submitted during the period of candidature. This thesis is composed of Seven published/submitted papers and one poster presentation, of which five have been published and the other two are under review. This project is financially supported by the QUTPRA Grant. The twenty-first century started with the resurrection of lignocellulosic biomass as a potential substitute for petrochemicals. Petrochemicals, which enjoyed the sustainable economic growth during the past century, have begun to reach or have reached their peak. The world energy situation is complicated by political uncertainty and by the environmental impact associated with petrochemical import and usage. In particular, greenhouse gasses and toxic emissions produced by petrochemicals have been implicated as a significant cause of climate changes. Lignocellulosic biomass (e.g. sugarcane biomass and bagasse), which potentially enjoys a more abundant, widely distributed, and cost-effective resource base, can play an indispensible role in the paradigm transition from fossil-based to carbohydrate-based economy. Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate), PHB has attracted much commercial interest as a plastic and biodegradable material because some its physical properties are similar to those of polypropylene (PP), even though the two polymers have quite different chemical structures. PHB exhibits a high degree of crystallinity, has a high melting point of approximately 180°C, and most importantly, unlike PP, PHB is rapidly biodegradable. Two major factors which currently inhibit the widespread use of PHB are its high cost and poor mechanical properties. The production costs of PHB are significantly higher than for plastics produced from petrochemical resources (e.g. PP costs $US1 kg-1, whereas PHB costs $US8 kg-1), and its stiff and brittle nature makes processing difficult and impedes its ability to handle high impact. Lignin, together with cellulose and hemicellulose, are the three main components of every lignocellulosic biomass. It is a natural polymer occurring in the plant cell wall. Lignin, after cellulose, is the most abundant polymer in nature. It is extracted mainly as a by-product in the pulp and paper industry. Although, traditionally lignin is burnt in industry for energy, it has a lot of value-add properties. Lignin, which to date has not been exploited, is an amorphous polymer with hydrophobic behaviour. These make it a good candidate for blending with PHB and technically, blending can be a viable solution for price and reduction and enhance production properties. Theoretically, lignin and PHB affect the physiochemical properties of each other when they become miscible in a composite. A comprehensive study on structural, thermal, rheological and environmental properties of lignin/PHB blends together with neat lignin and PHB is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research, including a description of the research problem, a literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers is presented in Chapter 1. In this research, lignin was obtained from bagasse through extraction with sodium hydroxide. A novel two-step pH precipitation procedure was used to recover soda lignin with the purity of 96.3 wt% from the black liquor (i.e. the spent sodium hydroxide solution). The precipitation process is presented in Chapter 2. A sequential solvent extraction process was used to fractionate the soda lignin into three fractions. These fractions, together with the soda lignin, were characterised to determine elemental composition, purity, carbohydrate content, molecular weight, and functional group content. The thermal properties of the lignins were also determined. The results are presented and discussed in Chapter 2. On the basis of the type and quantity of functional groups, attempts were made to identify potential applications for each of the individual lignins. As an addendum to the general section on the development of composite materials of lignin, which includes Chapters 1 and 2, studies on the kinetics of bagasse thermal degradation are presented in Appendix 1. The work showed that distinct stages of mass losses depend on residual sucrose. As the development of value-added products from lignin will improve the economics of cellulosic ethanol, a review on lignin applications, which included lignin/PHB composites, is presented in Appendix 2. Chapters 3, 4 and 5 are dedicated to investigations of the properties of soda lignin/PHB composites. Chapter 3 reports on the thermal stability and miscibility of the blends. Although the addition of soda lignin shifts the onset of PHB decomposition to lower temperatures, the lignin/PHB blends are thermally more stable over a wider temperature range. The results from the thermal study also indicated that blends containing up to 40 wt% soda lignin were miscible. The Tg data for these blends fitted nicely to the Gordon-Taylor and Kwei models. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) evaluation showed that the miscibility of the blends was because of specific hydrogen bonding (and similar interactions) between reactive phenolic hydroxyl groups of lignin and the carbonyl group of PHB. The thermophysical and rheological properties of soda lignin/PHB blends are presented in Chapter 4. In this chapter, the kinetics of thermal degradation of the blends is studied using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). This preliminary investigation is limited to the processing temperature of blend manufacturing. Of significance in the study, is the drop in the apparent energy of activation, Ea from 112 kJmol-1 for pure PHB to half that value for blends. This means that the addition of lignin to PHB reduces the thermal stability of PHB, and that the comparative reduced weight loss observed in the TGA data is associated with the slower rate of lignin degradation in the composite. The Tg of PHB, as well as its melting temperature, melting enthalpy, crystallinity and melting point decrease with increase in lignin content. Results from the rheological investigation showed that at low lignin content (.30 wt%), lignin acts as a plasticiser for PHB, while at high lignin content it acts as a filler. Chapter 5 is dedicated to the environmental study of soda lignin/PHB blends. The biodegradability of lignin/PHB blends is compared to that of PHB using the standard soil burial test. To obtain acceptable biodegradation data, samples were buried for 12 months under controlled conditions. Gravimetric analysis, TGA, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), FT-IR, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) were used in the study. The results clearly demonstrated that lignin retards the biodegradation of PHB, and that the miscible blends were more resistant to degradation compared to the immiscible blends. To obtain an understanding between the structure of lignin and the properties of the blends, a methanol-soluble lignin, which contains 3× less phenolic hydroxyl group that its parent soda lignin used in preparing blends for the work reported in Chapters 3 and 4, was blended with PHB and the properties of the blends investigated. The results are reported in Chapter 6. At up to 40 wt% methanolsoluble lignin, the experimental data fitted the Gordon-Taylor and Kwei models, similar to the results obtained soda lignin-based blends. However, the values obtained for the interactive parameters for the methanol-soluble lignin blends were slightly lower than the blends obtained with soda lignin indicating weaker association between methanol-soluble lignin and PHB. FT-IR data confirmed that hydrogen bonding is the main interactive force between the reactive functional groups of lignin and the carbonyl group of PHB. In summary, the structural differences existing between the two lignins did not manifest itself in the properties of their blends.

Energy and population policies in Australia

The Australian Government is about to release Australia’s first sustainable population policy. Sustainable population growth, among other things, implies sustainable energy demand. Current modelling of future energy demand both in Australia and by agencies such as the International Energy Agency sees population growth as one of the key drivers of energy demand. Simply increasing the demand for energy in response to population policy is sustainable only if there is a radical restructuring of the energy system away from energy sources associated with environmental degradation towards one more reliant on renewable fuels and less reliant on fossil fuels. Energy policy can also address the present nexus between energy consumption per person and population growth through an aggressive energy efficiency policy. The paper considers the link between population policies and energy policies and considers how the overall goal of sustainability can be achieved. The methods applied in this analysis draw on the literature of sustainable development to develop elements of an energy planning framework to support a sustainable population policy. Rather than simply accept that energy demand is a function of population increase moderated by an assumed rate of energy efficiency improvement, the focus is on considering what rate of energy efficiency improvement is necessary to significantly reduce the standard connections between population growth and growth in energy demand and what policies are necessary to achieve this situation. Energy efficiency policies can only moderate unsustainable aspects of energy demand and other policies are essential to restructure existing energy systems into on-going sustainable forms. Policies to achieve these objectives are considered. This analysis shows that energy policy, population policy and sustainable development policies are closely integrated. Present policy and planning agencies do not reflect this integration and energy and population policies in Australia have largely developed independently and whether the outcome is sustainable is largely a matter of chance. A genuinely sustainable population policy recognises the inter-dependence between population and energy policies and it is essential that this is reflected in integrated policy and planning agencies

Energy and population policies in Australia

The Australian Government is about to release Australia’s first sustainable population policy. Sustainable population growth, among other things, implies sustainable energy demand. Current modelling of future energy demand both in Australia and by agencies such as the International Energy Agency sees population growth as one of the key drivers of energy demand. Simply increasing the demand for energy in response to population policy is sustainable only if there is a radical restructuring of the energy system away from energy sources associated with environmental degradation towards one more reliant on renewable fuels and less reliant on fossil fuels. Energy policy can also address the present nexus between energy consumption per person and population growth through an aggressive energy efficiency policy. The paper considers the link between population policies and energy policies and considers how the overall goal of sustainability can be achieved. The methods applied in this analysis draw on the literature of sustainable development to develop elements of an energy planning framework to support a sustainable population policy. Rather than simply accept that energy demand is a function of population increase moderated by an assumed rate of energy efficiency improvement, the focus is on considering what rate of energy efficiency improvement is necessary to significantly reduce the standard connections between population growth and growth in energy demand and what policies are necessary to achieve this situation. Energy efficiency policies can only moderate unsustainable aspects of energy demand and other policies are essential to restructure existing energy systems into on-going sustainable forms. Policies to achieve these objectives are considered. This analysis shows that energy policy, population policy and sustainable development policies are closely integrated. Present policy and planning agencies do not reflect this integration and energy and population policies in Australia have largely developed independently and whether the outcome is sustainable is largely a matter of chance. A genuinely sustainable population policy recognises the inter-dependence between population and energy policies and it is essential that this is reflected in integrated policy and planning agencies

Development and deployment challenges for low emissions coal technology : the IGCC with CCS case

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical part of the global effort to address climate change as CCS has the potential to achieve deep cuts in CO2 emissions to atmosphere from the use of fossil fuels. In this context, pre-combustion capture through Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants with CCS is one of the key pathways to low emissions power generation. There are, however, very significant challenges to the development, commercialization and deployment of IGCC with CCS technologies. This article examines matters of cost, the need for government support to early movers, the attribution of economic value for carbon dioxide and various other regulatory, policy, technical and infrastructural barriers to the development and subsequent deployment of this low emissions coal technology option.

Cellulosic ethanol from sugarcane bagasse in Australia : exploring industry feasibility through systems analysis, techno-economic assessment and pilot plant development

Overcoming many of the constraints to early stage investment in biofuels production from sugarcane bagasse in Australia requires an understanding of the complex technical, economic and systemic challenges associated with the transition of established sugar industry structures from single product agri-businesses to new diversified multi-product biorefineries. While positive investment decisions in new infrastructure requires technically feasible solutions and the attainment of project economic investment thresholds, many other systemic factors will influence the investment decision. These factors include the interrelationships between feedstock availability and energy use, competing product alternatives, technology acceptance and perceptions of project uncertainty and risk. This thesis explores the feasibility of a new cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia based on the large sugarcane fibre (bagasse) resource available. The research explores industry feasibility from multiple angles including the challenges of integrating ethanol production into an established sugarcane processing system, scoping the economic drivers and key variables relating to bioethanol projects and considering the impact of emerging technologies in improving industry feasibility. The opportunities available from pilot scale technology demonstration are also addressed. Systems analysis techniques are used to explore the interrelationships between the existing sugarcane industry and the developing cellulosic biofuels industry. This analysis has resulted in the development of a conceptual framework for a bagassebased cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia and uses this framework to assess the uncertainty in key project factors and investment risk. The analysis showed that the fundamental issue affecting investment in a cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia is the uncertainty in the future price of ethanol and government support that reduces the risks associated with early stage investment is likely to be necessary to promote commercialisation of this novel technology. Comprehensive techno-economic models have been developed and used to assess the potential quantum of ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia, to assess the feasibility of a soda-based biorefinery at the Racecourse Sugar Mill in Mackay, Queensland and to assess the feasibility of reducing the cost of production of fermentable sugars from the in-planta expression of cellulases in sugarcane in Australia. These assessments show that ethanol from sugarcane in Australia has the potential to make a significant contribution to reducing Australia’s transportation fuel requirements from fossil fuels and that economically viable projects exist depending upon assumptions relating to product price, ethanol taxation arrangements and greenhouse gas emission reduction incentives. The conceptual design and development of a novel pilot scale cellulosic ethanol research and development facility is also reported in this thesis. The establishment of this facility enables the technical and economic feasibility of new technologies to be assessed in a multi-partner, collaborative environment. As a key outcome of this work, this study has delivered a facility that will enable novel cellulosic ethanol technologies to be assessed in a low investment risk environment, reducing the potential risks associated with early stage investment in commercial projects and hence promoting more rapid technology uptake. While the study has focussed on an exploration of the feasibility of a commercial cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia, many of the same key issues will be of relevance to other sugarcane industries throughout the world seeking diversification of revenue through the implementation of novel cellulosic ethanol technologies.

Integrating electrical vehicles to demand side response scheme in Queensland Australia

Depleting fossil fuel resources and increased accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly making electrical vehicles (EV) attractive option for the transportation sector. However uncontrolled random charging and discharging of EVs may aggravate the problems of an already stressed system during the peak demand and cause voltage problems during low demand. This paper develops a demand side response scheme for properly integrating EVs in the Electrical Network. The scheme enacted upon information on electricity market conditions regularly released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on the internet. The scheme adopts Internet relays and solid state switches to cycle charging and discharging of EVs. Due to the pending time-of-use and real-price programs, financial benefits will represent driving incentives to consumers to implement the scheme. A wide-scale dissemination of the scheme is expected to mitigate excessive peaks on the electrical network with all associated technical, economic and social benefits.

Considering the importance of a systems approach to integrating ESD with campus operations

Society faces an unprecedented global education challenge to equip professionals with the knowledge and skills to address emerging 21st Century challenges, spanning climate change mitigation through to adaptation measures to deal with issues such as temperature and sea level rise, and diminishing fresh water and fossil fuel reserves. This paper discusses the potential for systemic and synergistic integration of curriculum with campus operations to accelerate curriculum renewal towards ESD, drawing on the authors' experiences within engineering education. The paper begins by a providing a brief overview of the need for timely curriculum renewal towards ESD in tertiary education. The paper then highlights some examples of academic barriers that need to be overcome for integration efforts to be successful, and opportunities for promoting the benefits of such integration. The paper concludes by discussing the rational for planning green campus initiatives within a larger system of curriculum renewal considerations, including awareness raising and developing a common understanding, identifying and mapping graduate attributes, curriculum auditing, content development and strategic renewal, and bridging and outreach.

Limestone and speleothem trace element geochemistry as tools for palaeoclimatic reconstruction, Mount Etna region, central-coastal Queensland

This study investigated potential palaeoclimate proxies provided by rare earth element (REE) geochemistry in speleothems and in clay mineralogy of cave sediments. Speleothem and sediment samples were collected from a series of cave fill deposits that occurred with rich vertebrate fossil assemblages in and around Mount Etna National Park, Rockhampton (central coastal Queensland). The fossil deposits range from Plio- Pleistocene to Holocene in age (based on uranium/thorium dating) and appear to represent depositional environments ranging from enclosed rainforest to semi-arid grasslands. Therefore, the Mount Etna cave deposits offer the perfect opportunity to test new palaeoclimate tools as they include deposits that span a known significant climate shift on the basis of independent faunal data. The first section of this study investigates the REE distribution of the host limestone to provide baseline geochemistry for subsequent speleothem investigations. The Devonian Mount Etna Beds were found to be more complex than previous literature had documented. The studied limestone massif is overturned, highly recrystallised in parts and consists of numerous allochthonous blocks with different spatial orientations. Despite the complex geologic history of the Mount Etna Beds, Devonian seawater-like REE patterns were recovered in some parts of the limestone and baseline geochemistry was determined for the bulk limestone for comparison with speleothem REE patterns. The second part of the study focused on REE distribution in the karst system and the palaeoclimatic implications of such records. It was found that REEs have a high affinity for calcite surfaces and that REE distributions in speleothems vary between growth bands much more than along growth bands, thus providing a temporal record that may relate to environmental changes. The morphology of different speleothems (i.e., stalactites, stalagmites, and flowstones) has little bearing on REE distributions provided they are not contaminated with particulate fines. Thus, baseline knowledge developed in the study suggested that speleothems were basically comparable for assessing palaeoclimatically controlled variations in REE distributions. Speleothems from rainforest and semi-arid phases were compared and it was found that there are definable differences in REE distribution that can be attributed to climate. In particular during semiarid phases, total REE concentration decreased, LREE became more depleted, Y/Ho increased, La anomalies were more positive and Ce anomalies were more negative. This may reflect more soil development during rainforest phases and more organic particles and colloids, which are known to transport REEs, in karst waters. However, on a finer temporal scale (i.e. growth bands) within speleothems from the same climate regime, no difference was seen. It is suggested that this may be due to inadequate time for soil development changes on the time frames represented by differences in growth band density. The third part of the study was a reconnaissance investigation focused on mineralogy of clay cave sediments, illite/kaolinite ratios in particular, and the potential palaeoclimatic implications of such records. Although the sample distribution was not optimal, the preliminary results suggest that the illite/kaolinite ratio increased during cold and dry intervals, consistent with decreased chemical weathering during those times. The study provides a basic framework for future studies at differing latitudes to further constrain the parameters of the proxy. The identification of such a proxy recorded in cave sediment has broad implications as clay ratios could potentially provide a basic local climate proxy in the absence of fossil faunas and speleothem material. This study suggests that REEs distributed in speleothems may provide information about water throughput and soil formation, thus providing a potential palaeoclimate proxy. It highlights the importance of understanding the host limestone geochemistry and broadens the distribution and potential number of cave field sites as palaeoclimate information no longer relies solely on the presence of fossil faunas and or speleothems. However, additional research is required to better understand the temporal scales required for the proxies to be recognised.

Time-dependent rates of molecular evolution

For over half a century, it has been known that the rate of morphological evolution appears to vary with the time frame of measurement. Rates of microevolutionary change, measured between successive generations, were found to be far higher than rates of macroevolutionary change inferred from the fossil record. More recently, it has been suggested that rates of molecular evolution are also time dependent, with the estimated rate depending on the timescale of measurement. This followed surprising observations that estimates of mutation rates, obtained in studies of pedigrees and laboratory mutation-accumulation lines, exceeded long-term substitution rates by an order of magnitude or more. Although a range of studies have provided evidence for such a pattern, the hypothesis remains relatively contentious. Furthermore, there is ongoing discussion about the factors that can cause molecular rate estimates to be dependent on time. Here we present an overview of our current understanding of time-dependent rates. We provide a summary of the evidence for time-dependent rates in animals, bacteria and viruses. We review the various biological and methodological factors that can cause rates to be time dependent, including the effects of natural selection, calibration errors, model misspecification and other artefacts. We also describe the challenges in calibrating estimates of molecular rates, particularly on the intermediate timescales that are critical for an accurate characterization of time-dependent rates. This has important consequences for the use of molecular-clock methods to estimate timescales of recent evolutionary events.

Reply to Camens : how recently did modern monotremes diversify?

Camens (1) responds to our analysis of morphological data (2) in which platypuses (Ornithorhynchidae) and echidnas (Tachyglossidae) were inferred to be each other's closest relatives, to the exclusion of Early Cretaceous forms, Teinolophos and Steropodon. Our phylogeny is consistent with the late appearance of undisputed fossil echidnas and platypuses. Molecular dating provided important independent corroboration, revealing that platypuses and echidnas diverged only 19–48 Ma, implying that Teinolophos and Steropodon (105–121 Ma) must lie outside the platypus–echidna dichotomy...

Molecules, morphology, and ecology indicate a recent, amphibious ancestry for echidnas

The semiaquatic platypus and terrestrial echidnas (spiny anteaters) are the only living egg-laying mammals (monotremes). The fossil record has provided few clues as to their origins and the evolution of their ecological specializations; however, recent reassignment of the Early Cretaceous Teinolophos and Steropodon to the platypus lineage implies that platypuses and echidnas diverged >112.5 million years ago, reinforcing the notion of monotremes as living fossils. This placement is based primarily on characters related to a single feature, the enlarged mandibular canal, which supplies blood vessels and dense electrosensory receptors to the platypus bill. Our reevaluation of the morphological data instead groups platypus and echidnas to the exclusion of Teinolophos and Steropodon and suggests that an enlarged mandibular canal is ancestral for monotremes (partly reversed in echidnas, in association with general mandibular reduction). A multigene evaluation of the echidna–platypus divergence using both a relaxed molecular clock and direct fossil calibrations reveals a recent split of 19–48 million years ago. Platypus-like monotremes (Monotrematum) predate this divergence, indicating that echidnas had aquatically foraging ancestors that reinvaded terrestrial ecosystems. This ecological shift and the associated radiation of echidnas represent a recent expansion of niche space despite potential competition from marsupials. Monotremes might have survived the invasion of marsupials into Australasia by exploiting ecological niches in which marsupials are restricted by their reproductive mode. Morphology, ecology, and molecular biology together indicate that Teinolophos and Steropodon are basal monotremes rather than platypus relatives, and that living monotremes are a relatively recent radiation.

Branch-length estimation bias misleads molecular dating for a vertebrate mitochondrial phylogeny

Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.

The evolutionary history of the extinct ratite moa and New Zealand Neogene paleogeography

The ratite moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes) were a speciose group of massive graviportal avian herbivores that dominated the New Zealand (NZ) ecosystem until their extinction �600 years ago. The phylogeny and evolutionary history of this morphologically diverse order has remained controversial since their initial description in 1839. We synthesize mitochondrial phylogenetic information from 263 subfossil moa specimens from across NZ with morphological, ecological, and new geological data to create the first comprehensive phylogeny, taxonomy, and evolutionary timeframe for all of the species of an extinct order. We also present an important new geological/paleogeographical model of late Cenozoic NZ, which suggests that terrestrial biota on the North and South Island landmasses were isolated for most of the past 20–30 Ma. The data reveal that the patterns of genetic diversity within and between differentmoaclades reflect a complex history following a major marine transgression in the Oligocene, affected by marine barriers, tectonic activity, and glacial cycles. Surprisingly, the remarkable morphological radiation of moa appears to have occurred much more recently than previous early Miocene (ca. 15 Ma) estimates, and was coincident with the accelerated uplift of the Southern Alps just ca. 5–8.5 Ma. Together with recent fossil evidence, these data suggest that the recent evolutionary history of nearly all of the iconic NZ terrestrial biota occurred principally on just the South Island.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.