A catchment modelling approach integrating surface and groundwater processes, land use and distribution of nutrients : Elimbah Creek, southeast Queensland

As the world’s population is growing, so is the demand for agricultural products. However, natural nitrogen (N) fixation and phosphorus (P) availability cannot sustain the rising agricultural production, thus, the application of N and P fertilisers as additional nutrient sources is common. It is those anthropogenic activities that can contribute high amounts of organic and inorganic nutrients to both surface and groundwaters resulting in degradation of water quality and a possible reduction of aquatic life. In addition, runoff and sewage from urban and residential areas can contain high amounts of inorganic and organic nutrients which may also affect water quality. For example, blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the coastline of southeast Queensland are an indicator of at least short term decreases of water quality. Although Australian catchments, including those with intensive forms of land use, show in general a low export of nutrients compared to North American and European catchments, certain land use practices may still have a detrimental effect on the coastal environment. Numerous studies are reported on nutrient cycling and associated processes on a catchment scale in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparable studies in Australia, in particular in subtropical regions are, however, limited and there is a paucity in the data, in particular for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus; these nutrients are important limiting factors in surface waters to promote algal blooms. Therefore, the monitoring of N and P and understanding the sources and pathways of these nutrients within a catchment is important in coastal zone management. Although Australia is the driest continent, in subtropical regions such as southeast Queensland, rainfall patterns have a significant effect on runoff and thus the nutrient cycle at a catchment scale. Increasingly, these rainfall patterns are becoming variable. The monitoring of these climatic conditions and the hydrological response of agricultural catchments is therefore also important to reduce the anthropogenic effects on surface and groundwater quality. This study consists of an integrated hydrological–hydrochemical approach that assesses N and P in an environment with multiple land uses. The main aim is to determine the nutrient cycle within a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland, the Elimbah Creek catchment. In particular, the investigation confirms the influence associated with forestry and agriculture on N and P forms, sources, distribution and fate in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting. In addition, the study determines whether N and P are subject to transport into the adjacent estuary and thus into the marine environment; also considered is the effect of local topography, soils and geology on N and P sources and distribution. The thesis is structured on four components individually reported. The first paper determines the controls of catchment settings and processes on stream water, riverbank sediment, and shallow groundwater N and P concentrations, in particular during the extended dry conditions that were encountered during the study. Temporal and spatial factors such as seasonal changes, soil character, land use and catchment morphology are considered as well as their effect on controls over distributions of N and P in surface waters and associated groundwater. A total number of 30 surface and 13 shallow groundwater sampling sites were established throughout the catchment to represent dominant soil types and the land use upstream of each sampling location. Sampling comprises five rounds and was conducted over one year between October 2008 and November 2009. Surface water and groundwater samples were analysed for all major dissolved inorganic forms of N and for total N. Phosphorus was determined in the form of dissolved reactive P (predominantly orthophosphate) and total P. In addition, extracts of stream bank sediments and soil grab samples were analysed for these N and P species. Findings show that major storm events, in particular after long periods of drought conditions, are the driving force of N cycling. This is expressed by higher inorganic N concentrations in the agricultural subcatchment compared to the forested subcatchment. Nitrate N is the dominant inorganic form of N in both the surface and groundwaters and values are significantly higher in the groundwaters. Concentrations in the surface water range from 0.03 to 0.34 mg N L..1; organic N concentrations are considerably higher (average range: 0.33 to 0.85 mg N L..1), in particular in the forested subcatchment. Average NO3-N in the groundwater has a range of 0.39 to 2.08 mg N L..1, and organic N averages between 0.07 and 0.3 mg N L..1. The stream bank sediments are dominated by organic N (range: 0.53 to 0.65 mg N L..1), and the dominant inorganic form of N is NH4-N with values ranging between 0.38 and 0.41 mg N L..1. Topography and soils, however, were not to have a significant effect on N and P concentrations in waters. Detectable phosphorus in the surface and groundwaters of the catchment is limited to several locations typically in the proximity of areas with intensive animal use; in soil and sediments, P is negligible. In the second paper, the stable isotopes of N (14N/15N) and H2O (16O/18O and 2H/H) in surface and groundwaters are used to identify sources of dissolved inorganic and organic N in these waters, and to determine their pathways within the catchment; specific emphasis is placed on the relation of forestry and agriculture. Forestry is predominantly concentrated in the northern subcatchment (Beerburrum Creek) while agriculture is mainly found in the southern subcatchment (Six Mile Creek). Results show that agriculture (horticulture, crops, grazing) is the main source of inorganic N in the surface waters of the agricultural subcatchment, and their isotopic signature shows a close link to evaporation processes that may occur during water storage in farm dams that are used for irrigation. Groundwaters are subject to denitrification processes that may result in reduced dissolved inorganic N concentrations. Soil organic matter delivers most of the inorganic N to the surface water in the forested subcatchment. Here, precipitation and subsequently runoff is the main source of the surface waters. Groundwater in this area is affected by agricultural processes. The findings also show that the catchment can attenuate the effects of anthropogenic land use on surface water quality. Riparian strips of natural remnant vegetation, commonly 50 to 100 m in width, act as buffer zones along the drainage lines in the catchment and remove inorganic N from the soil water before it enters the creek. These riparian buffer zones are common in most agricultural catchments of southeast Queensland and are indicated to reduce the impact of agriculture on stream water quality and subsequently on the estuary and marine environments. This reduction is expressed by a significant decrease in DIN concentrations from 1.6 mg N L..1 to 0.09 mg N L..1, and a decrease in the �15N signatures from upstream surface water locations downstream to the outlet of the agricultural subcatchment. Further testing is, however, necessary to confirm these processes. Most importantly, the amount of N that is transported to the adjacent estuary is shown to be negligible. The third and fourth components of the thesis use a hydrological catchment model approach to determine the water balance of the Elimbah Creek catchment. The model is then used to simulate the effects of land use on the water balance and nutrient loads of the study area. The tool that is used is the internationally widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Knowledge about the water cycle of a catchment is imperative in nutrient studies as processes such as rainfall, surface runoff, soil infiltration and routing of water through the drainage system are the driving forces of the catchment nutrient cycle. Long-term information about discharge volumes of the creeks and rivers do, however, not exist for a number of agricultural catchments in southeast Queensland, and such information is necessary to calibrate and validate numerical models. Therefore, a two-step modelling approach was used to calibrate and validate parameters values from a near-by gauged reference catchment as starting values for the ungauged Elimbah Creek catchment. Transposing monthly calibrated and validated parameter values from the reference catchment to the ungauged catchment significantly improved model performance showing that the hydrological model of the catchment of interest is a strong predictor of the water water balance. The model efficiency coefficient EF shows that 94% of the simulated discharge matches the observed flow whereas only 54% of the observed streamflow was simulated by the SWAT model prior to using the validated values from the reference catchment. In addition, the hydrological model confirmed that total surface runoff contributes the majority of flow to the surface water in the catchment (65%). Only a small proportion of the water in the creek is contributed by total base-flow (35%). This finding supports the results of the stable isotopes 16O/18O and 2H/H, which show the main source of water in the creeks is either from local precipitation or irrigation waters delivered by surface runoff; a contribution from the groundwater (baseflow) to the creeks could not be identified using 16O/18O and 2H/H. In addition, the SWAT model calculated that around 68% of the rainfall occurring in the catchment is lost through evapotranspiration reflecting the prevailing long-term drought conditions that were observed prior and during the study. Stream discharge from the forested subcatchment was an order of magnitude lower than discharge from the agricultural Six Mile Creek subcatchment. A change in land use from forestry to agriculture did not significantly change the catchment water balance, however, nutrient loads increased considerably. Conversely, a simulated change from agriculture to forestry resulted in a significant decrease of nitrogen loads. The findings of the thesis and the approach used are shown to be of value to catchment water quality monitoring on a wider scale, in particular the implications of mixed land use on nutrient forms, distributions and concentrations. The study confirms that in the tropics and subtropics the water balance is affected by extended dry periods and seasonal rainfall with intensive storm events. In particular, the comprehensive data set of inorganic and organic N and P forms in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting acquired during the one year sampling program may be used in similar catchment hydrological studies where these detailed information is missing. Also, the study concludes that riparian buffer zones along the catchment drainage system attenuate the transport of nitrogen from agricultural sources in the surface water. Concentrations of N decreased from upstream to downstream locations and were negligible at the outlet of the catchment.

Study of new particle formation in subtropical urban environment in Brisbane, Australia

Atmospheric ultrafine particles play an important role in affecting human health, altering climate and degrading visibility. Numerous studies have been conducted to better understand the formation process of these particles, including field measurements, laboratory chamber studies and mathematical modeling approaches. Field studies on new particle formation found that formation processes were significantly affected by atmospheric conditions, such as the availability of particle precursors and meteorological conditions. However, those studies were mainly carried out in rural areas of the northern hemisphere and information on new particle formation in urban areas, especially those in subtropical regions, is limited. In general, subtropical regions display a higher level of solar radiation, along with stronger photochemical reactivity, than those regions investigated in previous studies. However, based on the results of these studies, the mechanisms involved in the new particle formation process remain unclear, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, in order to fill this gap in knowledge, a new particle formation study was conducted in a subtropical urban area in the Southern Hemisphere during 2009, which measured particle size distribution in different locations in Brisbane, Australia. Characterisation of nucleation events was conducted at the campus building of the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), located in an urban area of Brisbane. Overall, the annual average number concentrations of ultrafine, Aitken and nucleation mode particles were found to be 9.3 x 103, 3.7 x 103 and 5.6 x 103 cm-3, respectively. This was comparable to levels measured in urban areas of northern Europe, but lower than those from polluted urban areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, China and Huelva and Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain. Average particle number concentration (PNC) in the Brisbane region did not show significant seasonal variation, however a relatively large variation was observed during the warmer season. Diurnal variation of Aitken and nucleation mode particles displayed different patterns, which suggested that direct vehicle exhaust emissions were a major contributor of Aitken mode particles, while nucleation mode particles originated from vehicle exhaust emissions in the morning and photochemical production at around noon. A total of 65 nucleation events were observed during 2009, in which 40 events were classified as nucleation growth events and the remainder were nucleation burst events. An interesting observation in this study was that all nucleation growth events were associated with vehicle exhaust emission plumes, while the nucleation burst events were associated with industrial emission plumes from an industrial area. The average particle growth rate for nucleation events was found to be 4.6 nm hr-1 (ranging from 1.79-7.78 nm hr-1), which is comparable to other urban studies conducted in the United States, while monthly particle growth rates were found to be positively related to monthly solar radiation (r = 0.76, p <0.05). The particle growth rate values reported in this work are the first of their kind to be reported for the subtropical urban area of Australia. Furthermore, the influence of nucleation events on PNC within the urban airshed was also investigated. PNC was simultaneously measured at urban (QUT), roadside (Woolloongabba) and semi-urban (Rocklea) sites in Brisbane during 2009. Total PNC at these sites was found to be significantly affected by regional nucleation events. The relative fractions of PNC to total daily PNC observed at QUT, Woolloongabba and Rocklea were found to be 12%, 9% and 14%, respectively, during regional nucleation events. These values were higher than those observed as a result of vehicle exhaust emissions during weekday mornings, which ranged from 5.1-5.5% at QUT and Woolloongabba. In addition, PNC in the semi-urban area of Rocklea increased by a factor of 15.4 when it was upwind from urban pollution sources under the influence of nucleation burst events. Finally, we investigated the influence of sulfuric acid on new particle formation in the study region. A H2SO4 proxy was calculated by using [SO2], solar radiation and particle condensation sink data to represent the new particle production strength for the urban, roadside and semi-urban areas of Brisbane during the period June-July of 2009. The temporal variations of the H2SO4 proxies and the nucleation mode particle concentration were found to be in phase during nucleation events in the urban and roadside areas. In contrast, the peak of proxy concentration occurred 1-2 hr prior to the observed peak in nucleation mode particle concentration at the downwind semi-urban area of Brisbane. A moderate to strong linear relationship was found between the proxy and the freshly formed particles, with r2 values of 0.26-0.77 during the nucleation events. In addition, the log[H2SO4 proxy] required to produce new particles was found to be ~1.0 ppb Wm-2 s and below 0.5 ppb Wm-2 s for the urban and semi-urban areas, respectively. The particle growth rates were similar during nucleation events at the three study locations, with an average value of 2.7 ± 0.5 nm hr-1. This result suggested that a similar nucleation mechanism dominated in the study region, which was strongly related to sulphuric acid concentration, however the relationship between the proxy and PNC was poor in the semi-urban area of Rocklea. This can be explained by the fact that the nucleation process was initiated upwind of the site and the resultant particles were transported via the wind to Rocklea. This explanation is also supported by the higher geometric mean diameter value observed for particles during the nucleation event and the time lag relationship between the H2SO4 proxy and PNC observed at Rocklea. In summary, particle size distribution was continuously measured in a subtropical urban area of southern hemisphere during 2009, the findings from which formed the first particle size distribution dataset in the study region. The characteristics of nucleation events in the Brisbane region were quantified and the properties of the nucleation growth and burst events are discussed in detail using a case studies approach. To further investigate the influence of nucleation events on PNC in the study region, PNC was simultaneously measured at three locations to examine the spatial variation of PNC during the regional nucleation events. In addition, the impact of upwind urban pollution on the downwind semi-urban area was quantified during these nucleation events. Sulphuric acid was found to be an important factor influencing new particle formation in the urban and roadside areas of the study region, however, a direct relationship with nucleation events at the semi-urban site was not observed. This study provided an overview of new particle formation in the Brisbane region, and its influence on PNC in the surrounding area. The findings of this work are the first of their kind for an urban area in the southern hemisphere.

Urban transit quality of service : user perception and behaviour

Despite its potential multiple contributions to sustainable policy objectives, urban transit is generally not widely used by the public in terms of its market share compared to that of automobiles, particularly in affluent societies with low-density urban forms like Australia. Transit service providers need to attract more people to transit by improving transit quality of service. The key to cost-effective transit service improvements lies in accurate evaluation of policy proposals by taking into account their impacts on transit users. If transit providers knew what is more or less important to their customers, they could focus their efforts on optimising customer-oriented service. Policy interventions could also be specified to influence transit users’ travel decisions, with targets of customer satisfaction and broader community welfare. This significance motivates the research into the relationship between urban transit quality of service and its user perception as well as behaviour. This research focused on two dimensions of transit user’s travel behaviour: route choice and access arrival time choice. The study area chosen was a busy urban transit corridor linking Brisbane central business district (CBD) and the St. Lucia campus of The University of Queensland (UQ). This multi-system corridor provided a ‘natural experiment’ for transit users between the CBD and UQ, as they can choose between busway 109 (with grade-separate exclusive right-of-way), ordinary on-street bus 412, and linear fast ferry CityCat on the Brisbane River. The population of interest was set as the attendees to UQ, who travelled from the CBD or from a suburb via the CBD. Two waves of internet-based self-completion questionnaire surveys were conducted to collect data on sampled passengers’ perception of transit service quality and behaviour of using public transit in the study area. The first wave survey is to collect behaviour and attitude data on respondents’ daily transit usage and their direct rating of importance on factors of route-level transit quality of service. A series of statistical analyses is conducted to examine the relationships between transit users’ travel and personal characteristics and their transit usage characteristics. A factor-cluster segmentation procedure is applied to respodents’ importance ratings on service quality variables regarding transit route preference to explore users’ various perspectives to transit quality of service. Based on the perceptions of service quality collected from the second wave survey, a series of quality criteria of the transit routes under study was quantitatively measured, particularly, the travel time reliability in terms of schedule adherence. It was proved that mixed traffic conditions and peak-period effects can affect transit service reliability. Multinomial logit models of transit user’s route choice were estimated using route-level service quality perceptions collected in the second wave survey. Relative importance of service quality factors were derived from choice model’s significant parameter estimates, such as access and egress times, seat availability, and busway system. Interpretations of the parameter estimates were conducted, particularly the equivalent in-vehicle time of access and egress times, and busway in-vehicle time. Market segmentation by trip origin was applied to investigate the difference in magnitude between the parameter estimates of access and egress times. The significant costs of transfer in transit trips were highlighted. These importance ratios were applied back to quality perceptions collected as RP data to compare the satisfaction levels between the service attributes and to generate an action relevance matrix to prioritise attributes for quality improvement. An empirical study on the relationship between average passenger waiting time and transit service characteristics was performed using the service quality perceived. Passenger arrivals for services with long headways (over 15 minutes) were found to be obviously coordinated with scheduled departure times of transit vehicles in order to reduce waiting time. This drove further investigations and modelling innovations in passenger’ access arrival time choice and its relationships with transit service characteristics and average passenger waiting time. Specifically, original contributions were made in formulation of expected waiting time, analysis of the risk-aversion attitude to missing desired service run in the passengers’ access time arrivals’ choice, and extensions of the utility function specification for modelling passenger access arrival distribution, by using complicated expected utility forms and non-linear probability weighting to explicitly accommodate the risk of missing an intended service and passenger’s risk-aversion attitude. Discussions on this research’s contributions to knowledge, its limitations, and recommendations for future research are provided at the concluding section of this thesis.

Turbulent mixing and sediment processes in peri-urban estuariesin South-East Queensland (Australia)

An estuary is formed at the mouth of a river where the tides meet a freshwater flow and it may be classified as a function of the salinity distribution and density stratification. An overview of the broad characteristics of the estuaries of South-East Queensland(Australia) is presented herein, where the small peri-urban estuaries may provide an useful indicator of potential changes which might occur in larger systems with growing urbanisation. Small peri-urban estuaries exhibits many key hydrological features and associated with ecosystem types of larger estuaries, albeit at smaller scales, often with a greater extent of urban development as a proportion of catchment area. We explore the potential for some smaller peri-urban estuaries to be used as natural laboratories to gain some much needed information on the estuarine processes, although any dynamics similarity is presently limited by critical absence of in-depth physical investigation in larger estuarine systems. The absence of the detailed turbulence and sedimentary data hampers the understanding and modelling of the estuarine zones. The interactions between the various stake holders are likely to define the vision for the future of South-East Queensland's peri-urban estuaries. This will require a solid understanding of the bio-physical function and capacity of the peri-urban estuaries. Based upon the knowledge gap, it is recommended that an adaptive trial and error approach be adopted for the future of investigation and management strategies.

Postpartum care for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus across urban, rural and remote locations : a protocol for a cohort linkage study

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing, along with obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people* in Australia particularly affected. GDM causes serious complications in pregnancy, birth, and the longer term, for both women and their infants. Women diagnosed with GDM have an eightfold risk of developing T2DM after pregnancy, compared with women who have not had GDM. Indigenous women have an even higher risk, at a younger age, and progress more quickly from GDM to T2DM, compared to non-Indigenous women. If left undetected and untreated, T2DM can lead to heart disease, stroke, renal disease, kidney failure, amputations and blindness. A GDM diagnosis offers a ‘window of opportunity’ for diabetes health interventions and it is vital that acceptable and effective prevention, treatment, and post-pregnancy care are provided. Low rates of post-pregnancy screening for T2DM are reported among non-Aboriginal women in Australia and among Indigenous women in other countries, however data for Aboriginal women are scarce. Breastfeeding, a healthy diet, and exercise can also help to prevent T2DM, and together with T2DM screening are recommended elements of ‘post-pregnancy care’ for women with GDM, This paper describes methods for a data linkage study to investigate rates of post-pregnancy care among women with GDM. Methods/Design: This retrospective cohort includes all women who gave birth at Cairns Base Hospital in Far North Queensland, Australia, from 2004 to 2010, coded as having GDM in the Cairns Base Hospital Clinical Coding system. Data linkage is being conducted with the Queensland Perinatal Data Collection, and three laboratories. Hospital medical records are being reviewed to validate the accuracy of GDM case ascertainment, and gather information on breastfeeding and provision of dietary advice. Multiple logistic regression is being used to compare post-pregnancy care between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women, while adjusting for other factors may impact on post-pregnancy care. Survival analysis is being used to estimate the rates of progression from GDM to T2DM. Discussion: There are challenges to collecting post-pregnancy data for women with GDM. However, research is urgently needed to ensure adequate post-pregnancy care is provided for women with GDM in Australia.

First flush behaviour in urban residential catchments

The current state of knowledge in relation to first flush does not provide a clear understanding of the role of rainfall and catchment characteristics in influencing this phenomenon. This is attributed to the inconsistent findings from research studies due to the unsatisfactory selection of first flush indicators and how first flush is defined. The research study discussed in this thesis provides the outcomes of a comprehensive analysis on the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on first flush behaviour in residential catchments. Two sets of first flush indicators are introduced in this study. These indicators were selected such that they are representative in explaining in a systematic manner the characteristics associated with first flush. Stormwater samples and rainfall-runoff data were collected and recorded from stormwater monitoring stations established at three urban catchments at Coomera Waters, Gold Coast, Australia. In addition, historical data were also used to support the data analysis. Three water quality parameters were analysed, namely, total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The data analyses were primarily undertaken using multi criteria decision making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Based on the data obtained, the pollutant load distribution curve (LV) was determined for the individual rainfall events and pollutant types. Accordingly, two sets of first flush indicators were derived from the curve, namely, cumulative load wash-off for every 10% of runoff volume interval (interval first flush indicators or LV) from the beginning of the event and the actual pollutant load wash-off during a 10% increment in runoff volume (section first flush indicators or P). First flush behaviour showed significant variation with pollutant types. TSS and TP showed consistent first flush behaviour. However, the dissolved fraction of TN showed significant differences to TSS and TP first flush while particulate TN showed similarities. Wash-off of TSS, TP and particulate TN during the first 10% of the runoff volume showed no influence from corresponding rainfall intensity. This was attributed to the wash-off of weakly adhered solids on the catchment surface referred to as "short term pollutants" or "weakly adhered solids" load. However, wash-off after 10% of the runoff volume showed dependency on the rainfall intensity. This is attributed to the wash-off of strongly adhered solids being exposed when the weakly adhered solids diminish. The wash-off process was also found to depend on rainfall depth at the end part of the event as the strongly adhered solids are loosened due to impact of rainfall in the earlier part of the event. Events with high intensity rainfall bursts after 70% of the runoff volume did not demonstrate first flush behaviour. This suggests that rainfall pattern plays a critical role in the occurrence of first flush. Rainfall intensity (with respect to the rest of the event) that produces 10% to 20% runoff volume play an important role in defining the magnitude of the first flush. Events can demonstrate high magnitude first flush when the rainfall intensity occurring between 10% and 20% of the runoff volume is comparatively high while low rainfall intensities during this period produces low magnitude first flush. For events with first flush, the phenomenon is clearly visible up to 40% of the runoff volume. This contradicts the common definition that first flush only exists, if for example, 80% of the pollutant mass is transported in the first 30% of runoff volume. First flush behaviour for TN is different compared to TSS and TP. Apart from rainfall characteristics, the composition and the availability of TN on the catchment also play an important role in first flush. The analysis confirmed that events with low rainfall intensity can produce high magnitude first flush for the dissolved fraction of TN, while high rainfall intensity produce low dissolved TN first flush. This is attributed to the source limiting behaviour of dissolved TN wash-off where there is high wash-off during the initial part of a rainfall event irrespective of the intensity. However, for particulate TN, the influence of rainfall intensity on first flush characteristics is similar to TSS and TP. The data analysis also confirmed that first flush can occur as high magnitude first flush, low magnitude first flush or non existence of first flush. Investigation of the influence of catchment characteristics on first flush found that the key factors that influence the phenomenon are the location of the pollutant source, spatial distribution of the pervious and impervious surfaces in the catchment, drainage network layout and slope of the catchment. This confirms that first flush phenomenon cannot be evaluated based on a single or a limited set of parameters as a number of catchment characteristics should be taken into account. Catchments where the pollutant source is located close to the outlet, a high fraction of road surfaces, short travel time to the outlet, with steep slopes can produce high wash-off load during the first 50% of the runoff volume. Rainfall characteristics have a comparatively dominant impact on the wash-off process compared to the catchment characteristics. In addition, the pollutant characteristics also should be taken into account in designing stormwater treatment systems due to different wash-off behaviour. Analysis outcomes confirmed that there is a high TSS load during the first 20% of the runoff volume followed by TN which can extend up to 30% of the runoff volume. In contrast, high TP load can exist during the initial and at the end part of a rainfall event. This is related to the composition of TP available for the wash-off.

Modeling predictors of risky drug use behavior among male street laborers in urban Vietnam

Background The application of theoretical frameworks for modeling predictors of drug risk among male street laborers remains limited. The objective of this study was to test a modified version of the IMB (Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model), which includes psychosocial stress, and compare this modified version with the original IMB model in terms of goodness-of-fit to predict risky drug use behavior among this population. Methods In a cross-sectional study, social mapping technique was conducted to recruit 450 male street laborers from 135 street venues across 13 districts of Hanoi city, Vietnam, for face-to-face interviews. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze data from interviews. Results Overall measures of fit via SEM indicated that the original IMB model provided a better fit to the data than the modified version. Although the former model was able to predict a lesser variance than the latter (55% vs. 62%), it was of better fit. The findings suggest that men who are better informed and motivated for HIV prevention are more likely to report higher behavioral skills, which, in turn, are less likely to be engaged in risky drug use behavior. Conclusions This was the first application of the modified IMB model for drug use in men who were unskilled, unregistered laborers in urban settings. An AIDS prevention program for these men should not only distribute information and enhance motivations for HIV prevention, but consider interventions that could improve self-efficacy for preventing HIV infection. Future public health research and action may also consider broader factors such as structural social capital and social policy to alter the conditions that drive risky drug use among these men.

Coordinated control of grid connected photovoltaic reactive power and battery energy storage systems to improve the voltage profile of a residential distribution feeder

Increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) as well as increasing peak load demand has resulted in poor voltage profile for some residential distribution networks. This paper proposes coordinated use of PV and Battery Energy Storage (BES) to address voltage rise and/or dip problems. The reactive capability of PV inverter combined with droop based BES system is evaluated for rural and urban scenarios (having different R/X ratios). Results show that reactive compensation from PV inverters alone is sufficient to maintain acceptable voltage profile in an urban scenario (low resistance feeder), whereas, coordinated PV and BES support is required for the rural scenario (high resistance feeder). Constant as well as variable droop based BES schemes are analyzed. The required BES sizing and associated cost to maintain the acceptable voltage profile under both schemes is presented. Uncertainties in PV generation and load are considered, with probabilistic estimation of PV generation and randomness in load modeled to characterize the effective utilization of BES. Actual PV generation data and distribution system network data is used to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.

Modelling for the electricity distribution network

Global awareness for cleaner and renewable energy is transforming the electricity sector at many levels. New technologies are being increasingly integrated into the electricity grid at high, medium and low voltage levels, new taxes on carbon emissions are being introduced and individuals can now produce electricity, mainly through rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. While leading to improvements, these changes also introduce challenges, and a question that often rises is ‘how can we manage this constantly evolving grid?’ The Queensland Government and Ergon Energy, one of the two Queensland distribution companies, have partnered with some Australian and German universities on a project to answer this question in a holistic manner. The project investigates the impact the integration of renewables and other new technologies has on the physical structure of the grid, and how this evolving system can be managed in a sustainable and economical manner. To aid understanding of what the future might bring, a software platform has been developed that integrates two modelling techniques: agent-based modelling (ABM) to capture the characteristics of the different system units accurately and dynamically, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the most economical mix of network extension and integration of distributed generation over long periods of time. Using data from Ergon Energy, two types of networks (3 phase, and Single Wired Earth Return or SWER) have been modelled; three-phase networks are usually used in dense networks such as urban areas, while SWER networks are widely used in rural Queensland. Simulations can be performed on these networks to identify the required upgrades, following a three-step process: a) what is already in place and how it performs under current and future loads, b) what can be done to manage it and plan the future grid and c) how these upgrades/new installations will perform over time. The number of small-scale distributed generators, e.g. PV and battery, is now sufficient (and expected to increase) to impact the operation of the grid, which in turn needs to be considered by the distribution network manager when planning for upgrades and/or installations to stay within regulatory limits. Different scenarios can be simulated, with different levels of distributed generation, in-place as well as expected, so that a large number of options can be assessed (Step a). Once the location, sizing and timing of assets upgrade and/or installation are found using optimisation techniques (Step b), it is possible to assess the adequacy of their daily performance using agent-based modelling (Step c). One distinguishing feature of this software is that it is possible to analyse a whole area at once, while still having a tailored solution for each of the sub-areas. To illustrate this, using the impact of battery and PV can have on the two types of networks mentioned above, three design conditions can be identified (amongst others): · Urban conditions o Feeders that have a low take-up of solar generators, may benefit from adding solar panels o Feeders that need voltage support at specific times, may be assisted by installing batteries · Rural conditions - SWER network o Feeders that need voltage support as well as peak lopping may benefit from both battery and solar panel installations. This small example demonstrates that no single solution can be applied across all three areas, and there is a need to be selective in which one is applied to each branch of the network. This is currently the function of the engineer who can define various scenarios against a configuration, test them and iterate towards an appropriate solution. Future work will focus on increasing the level of automation in identifying areas where particular solutions are applicable.

Urban food futures : ICTs and opportunities

Food is a vital foundation of all human life. It is essential to a myriad of political, socio-cultural, economic and environmental practices throughout history. As Kaplan [1] contends, “the scholarship on food has real pedigree.” Today, practices of food production, consumption and distribution have the potential to go through immensely transformative shifts as network technologies become increasingly embedded in every domain of contemporary life. This presents unique opportunities for further scholarly exploration on this topic, which this special issue intends to address. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are one of the pillars of contemporary global functionality and sustenance and undoubtedly will continue to present new challenges and opportunities for the future. As such, this special issue of Futures has been brought together to address challenges and opportunities at the intersection of food and ICTs. In particular, the edition asks, what are the key roles that network technologies play in re-shaping social and economic networks of food?

The unequal distribution of road trauma in China : understanding risk factors to improve public health

The World Health Organization identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in every country; most notably among low-to-middle income countries. More than 90% of all road fatalities occur in these countries, although they have only 48% of all registered vehicles [1]. Unprecedented focus has been placed on reducing the global road trauma burden through the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020). China is rapidly transitioning from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership and use is increasing. This transition presents important public health, mobility, and safety challenges. Rapid motorisation has resulted in an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (bicyclists, pedestrians, and motorcyclists) are of particular concern, representing 70% of all road-related fatalities [1]. Furthermore, those at greatest risk of sustaining a crash-related disability are: male, older, less educated, and earning a lower income [2] and residing in urban areas [3], with higher fatality rates in north-western poorer provinces [3]. Speeding is a key factor in road crashes in China [1, 4] and is one of two risk factors targeted in the Bloomberg Philanthropies-funded Global Road Safety Program operating in two Chinese cities over five year [5] to which the first author has provided expert advice. However, little evidence exists to help understand the factors underpinning speeding behaviour. Previous research conducted by the authors in Beijing and Hangzhou explored personal, social, and legal factors relating to speeding to assist in better understanding the motivations for non-compliance with speed limits. Qualitative and quantitative research findings indicated that speeding is relatively common, including self-reported travel speeds of greater than 30 km/hour above posted speed limits [6], and that the road safety laws and enforcement practices may, in some circumstances, contribute to this [7]. Normative factors were also evident; the role of friends, family members and driving instructors were influential. Additionally, using social networks to attempt to avoid detection and penalty was reported, thereby potentially reinforcing community perceptions that speeding is acceptable [8, 9]. The authors established strong collaborative links with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Zhejiang Police College to conduct this research. The first author has worked in both institutions for extended time periods and recognises that research must include an understanding of culturally-relevant issues if road safety is to improve in China. Future collaborations to assist in enhancing our understanding of such issues are welcomed. References [1] World Health Organization. (2009). Global status report on road safety: Time for action; Geneva. [2] Chen, H., Du, W., & Li, N. (2013). The socioeconomic inequality in traffic-related disability among Chinese adults: the application of concentration index. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 55(101-106). [3] Wang, S. Y., Li, Y. H., Chi, G. B., Xiao, S. Y., Ozanne-Smith, J., Stevenson, M., & Phillips, M. (2008). Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. The Lancet (British edition), 372(9651), 1765-1773. [4] He, J., King, M. J., Watson, B., Rakotonirainy, A., & Fleiter, J. J. (2013). Speed enforcement in China: National, provincial and city initiatives and their success. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, 282-288. [5] Bhalla, K., Li, Q., Duan, L., Wang, Y., Bishai, D., & Hyder, A. A. (2013). The prevalence of speeding and drink driving in two cities in China: a mid project evaluation of ongoing road safety interventions. Injury, 44, 49-56. doi:10.1016/S0020-1383(13)70213-4. [6] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., & Lennon, A. (2013). Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers. Peer-reviewed paper presented at 23rd Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference, Montréal, Québec. [7] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2009). Speeding in Australia and China: A comparison of the influence of legal sanctions and enforcement practices on car drivers. Peer-reviewd paper presented at Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, Sydney. [8] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2011). Social influences on drivers in China. Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, 22(2), 29-36. [9] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Guan, M. Q., Ding, J. Y., & Xu, C. (2013). Characteristics of Chinese Drivers Attending a Mandatory Training Course Following Licence Suspension. Peer-reviewed paper presented at Road Safety on Four Continents, Beijing, China.

Investigation into chemistry of new particle formation and growth in subtropical urban environment

The role of different chemical compounds, particularly organics, involved in the new particle formation (NPF) and its consequent growth are not fully understood. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the chemistry of aerosol particles during NPF events in an urban subtropical environment. Aerosol chemical composition was measured along with particle number size distribution (PNSD) and several other air quality parameters at five sites across an urban subtropical environment. An Aerodyne compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (c-TOF-AMS) and a TSI Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) measured aerosol chemical composition and PNSD, respectively. Five NPF events, with growth rates in the range 3.3-4.6 nm, were detected at two sites. The NPF events happened on relatively warmer days with lower humidity and higher solar radiation. Temporal percent fractions of nitrate, sulphate, ammonium and organics were modelled using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM), with a basis of penalised spline. Percent fractions of organics increased after the NPF events, while the mass fraction of ammonium and sulphate decreased. This uncovered the important role of organics in the growth of newly formed particles. Three organic markers, factors f43, f44 and f57, were calculated and the f44 vs f43 trends were compared between nucleation and non-nucleation days. f44 vs f43 followed a different pattern on nucleation days compared to non-nucleation days, whereby f43 decreased for vehicle emission generated particles, while both f44 and f43 decreased for NPF generated particles. It was found for the first time that vehicle generated and newly formed particles cluster in different locations on f44 vs f43 plot and this finding can be used as a tool for source apportionment of measured particles.

The respiratory health of urban Indigenous children aged less than 5 years: Study protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background Despite the burden of acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children being a substantial cause of childhood morbidity and associated costs to families, communities and the health system, data on disease burden in urban children are lacking. Consequently evidence-based decision-making, data management guidelines, health resourcing for primary health care services and prevention strategies are lacking. This study aims to comprehensively describe the epidemiology, impact and outcomes of ARI in urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (hereafter referred to as Indigenous) in the greater Brisbane area. Methods/design A prospective cohort study of Indigenous children aged less than five years registered with a primary health care service in Northern Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Children are recruited at time of presentation to the service for any reason. Demographic, epidemiological, risk factor, microbiological, economic and clinical data are collected at enrolment. Enrolled children are followed for 12 months during which time ARI events, changes in child characteristics over time and monthly nasal swabs are collected. Children who develop an ARI with cough as a symptom during the study period are more intensely followed-up for 28(±3) days including weekly nasal swabs and parent completed cough diary cards. Children with persistent cough at day 28 post-ARI are reviewed by a paediatrician. Discussion Our study will be one of the first to comprehensively evaluate the natural history, epidemiology, aetiology, economic impact and outcomes of ARIs in this population. The results will inform studies for the development of evidence-based guidelines to improve the early detection, prevention and management of chronic cough and setting of priorities in children during and after ARI.

Role of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality

Urbanisation significantly changes the characteristics of a catchment as natural areas are transformed to impervious surfaces such as roads, roofs and parking lots. The increased fraction of impervious surfaces leads to changes to the stormwater runoff characteristics, whilst a variety of anthropogenic activities common to urban areas generate a range of pollutants such as nutrients, solids and organic matter. These pollutants accumulate on catchment surfaces and are removed and trans- ported by stormwater runoff and thereby contribute pollutant loads to receiving waters. In summary, urbanisation influences the stormwater characteristics of a catchment, including hydrology and water quality. Due to the growing recognition that stormwater pollution is a significant environmental problem, the implementation of mitigation strategies to improve the quality of stormwater runoff is becoming increasingly common in urban areas. A scientifically robust stormwater quality treatment strategy is an essential requirement for effective urban stormwater management. The efficient design of treatment systems is closely dependent on the state of knowledge in relation to the primary factors influencing stormwater quality. In this regard, stormwater modelling outcomes provide designers with important guidance and datasets which significantly underpin the design of effective stormwater treatment systems. Therefore, the accuracy of modelling approaches and the reliability modelling outcomes are of particular concern. This book discusses the inherent complexity and key characteristics in the areas of urban hydrology and stormwater quality, based on the influence exerted by a range of rainfall and catchment characteristics. A comprehensive field sampling and testing programme in relation to pollutant build-up, an urban catchment monitoring programme in relation to stormwater quality and the outcomes from advanced statistical analyses provided the platform for the knowledge creation. Two case studies and two real-world applications are discussed to illustrate the translation of the knowledge created to practical use in relation to the role of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. An innovative rainfall classification based on stormwater quality was developed to support the effective and scientifically robust design of stormwater treatment systems. Underpinned by the rainfall classification methodology, a reliable approach for design rainfall selection is proposed in order to optimise stormwater treatment based on both, stormwater quality and quantity. This is a paradigm shift from the common approach where stormwater treatment systems are designed based solely on stormwater quantity data. Additionally, how pollutant build-up and stormwater runoff quality vary with a range of catchment characteristics was also investigated. Based on the study out- comes, it can be concluded that the use of only a limited number of catchment parameters such as land use and impervious surface percentage, as it is the case in current modelling approaches, could result in appreciable error in water quality estimation. Influential factors which should be incorporated into modelling in relation to catchment characteristics, should also include urban form and impervious surface area distribution. The knowledge created through the research investigations discussed in this monograph is expected to make a significant contribution to engineering practice such as hydrologic and stormwater quality modelling, stormwater treatment design and urban planning, as the study outcomes provide practical approaches and recommendations for urban stormwater quality enhancement. Furthermore, this monograph also demonstrates how fundamental knowledge of stormwater quality processes can be translated to provide guidance on engineering practice, the comprehensive application of multivariate data analyses techniques and a paradigm on integrative use of computer models and mathematical models to derive practical outcomes.

Impact of particle formation on atmospheric ions and particle number concentrations in an urban environment

A measurement campaign was conducted from 3 to 19 December 2012 at an urban site of Brisbane, Australia. Size distribution of ions and particle number concentrations were measured to investigate the influence of particle formation and biomass burning on atmospheric ion and particle concentrations. Overall ion and particle number concentrations during the measurement period were found to be (-1.2 x 103 cm-3 | +1.6 x 103 cm-3) and 4.4 x 103, respectively. The results of correlation analysis between concentrations of ions and nitrogen oxides indicated that positive and negative ions originated from similar sources, and that vehicle exhaust emissions had a more significant influence on intermediate/large ions, while cluster ions rapidly attached to larger particles once emitted into the atmosphere. Diurnal variations in ion concentration suggested the enrichment of intermediate and large ions on new particle formation event days, indicating that they were involved in the particle formation processes. Elevated total ions, particularly larger ions, and particle number concentrations were found during biomass burning episodes. This could be due to the attachment of cluster ions onto accumulation mode particles or production of charged particles from biomass burning, which were in turn transported to the measurement site. The results of this work enhance scientific understanding of the sources of atmospheric ions in an urban environment, as well as their interactions with particles during particle formation processes.