Towards a comprehensive and integrated knowledge-based urban development model : status quo and directions

Incorporating knowledge based urban development (KBUD) strategies in the urban planning and development process is a challenging and complex task due to the fragmented and incoherent nature of the existing KBUD models. This paper scrutinizes and compares these KBUD models with an aim of identifying key and common features that help in developing a new comprehensive and integrated KBUD model. The features and characteristics of the existing KBUD models are determined through a thorough literature review and the analysis reveals that while these models are invaluable and useful in some cases, lack of a comprehensive perspective and absence of full integration of all necessary development domains render them incomplete as a generic model. The proposed KBUD model considers all central elements of urban development and sets an effective platform for planners and developers to achieve more holistic development outcomes. The proposed model, when developed further, has a high potential to support researchers, practitioners and particularly city and state administrations that are aiming to a knowledge-based development.

From slum to suburbia : examining a spectrum of planned and unplanned urban morphology in humid sub-tropical regions of the world

The current rapid urban growth throughout the world manifests in various ways and historically cities have grown, similarly, alternately or simultaneously between planned extensions and organic informal settlements (Mumford, 1989). Within cities different urban morphological regions can reveal different contexts of economic growth and/or periods of dramatic social/technological change (Whitehand, 2001, 105). Morpho-typological study of alternate contexts can present alternative models and contribute to the present discourse which questions traditional paradigms of urban planning and design (Todes et al, 2010). In this study a series of cities are examined as a preliminary exploration into the urban morphology of cities in ‘humid subtropical’ climates. From an initial set of twenty, six cities were selected: Sao Paulo, Brazil; Jacksonville, USA; Maputo, Mozambique; Kanpur, India; Hong Kong, China; and Brisbane, Australia. The urban form was analysed from satellite imagery at a constant scale. Urban morphological regions (types) were identified as those demonstrating particular consistant characteristics of form (density, typology and pattern) different to their surroundings when examined at a constant scale. This analysis was correlated against existing data and literature discussing the proliferation of two types of urban development, ‘informal settlement’ (defined here as self-organised communities identifiable but not always synonymous with ‘slums’) and ‘suburbia’ (defined here as master planned communities of generally detached houses prevalent in western society) - the extreme ends of a hypothetical spectrum from ‘planned’ to ‘spontaneous’ urban development. Preliminary results show some cities contain a wide variety of urban form ranging from the highly organic ‘self-organised’ type to the highly planned ‘master planned community’ (in the case of Sao Paulo) while others tend to fall at one end of the planning spectrum or the other (more planned in the cases of Brisbane and Jacksonville; and both highly planned and highly organic in the case of Maputo). Further research will examine the social, economical and political drivers and controls which lead to this diversity or homogeneity of urban form and speculates on the role of self-organisation as a process for the adaptation of urban form.

Impact of roof surface runoff on urban water quality

The pollutant impacts of urban stormwater runoff on receiving waters are well documented in research literature. However, it is road surfaces that are commonly identified as the significant pollutant source. This paper presents the outcomes of an extensive program of research into the role of roof surfaces in urban water quality with particular focus on solids, nutrients and organic carbon. The outcomes confirmed that roof surfaces play an important role in influencing the pollutant characteristics of urban stormwater runoff. Pollutant build-up and wash-off characteristics for roads and roof surfaces were found to be appreciably different. The pollutant wash-off characteristics exhibited by roof surfaces show that it influences the first flush phenomenon more significantly than road surfaces. In most urban catchments, as roof surfaces constitutes a higher fraction of impervious area compared to road surfaces, it is important that the pollutant generation role of roof surfaces is specifically taken into consideration in stormwater quality mitigation strategies.

Scenes, quarters and clusters: The formation and governance of creative places in urban China

This paper presents a PhD program examining the formation and governance patterns of the social and spatial concentration of creative people and creative businesses in cities. It develops a typology for creative places, adding the terms ‘scene’ and ‘quarter’ to ‘clusters’, to fill in the literature gap of partial emphasis on the ‘creative clusters’ model as an organising mechanism for regional and urban policy. The framework is then applied to China, specifically to Hangzhou, a second-tier city in central eastern China that is ambitious to become a ‘national cultural and creative industries centre’. Drawing on in-depth interviews with initiators, managers and creative professionals from three cases selected respectively for scene, quarter and cluster, together with extensive documentary analysis, the paper investigates the composition of actors, characteristics of the locality and the diversity of activities of the three places. The findings demonstrate a convergence of the three terms. Furthermore, in China, planning and government intervention is the key to the governance of creative places; spontaneous development processes exist, but these need a more tolerant environment, a greater diversity of cultural forms and more time to develop. Moreover, the main business development model is still real estate based: this model needs to incorporate more mature business models and an enhanced IP protection system. Finally, the business strategies need to be combined with a self-management model for the creative class, and a collaborative governance mechanism with other stakeholders such as government, real estate developers and education providers.

Guerrillas in the [urban] midst : Developing and using creative research methods - guerrilla research tactics

This paper explores what we are calling “Guerrilla Research Tactics” (GRT): research methods that exploit emerging mobile and cloud based digital technologies. We examine some case studies in the use of this technology to generate research data directly from the physical fabric and the people of the city. We argue that GRT is a new and novel way of engaging public participation in urban, place based research because it facilitates the co- creation of knowledge, with city inhabitants, ‘on the fly’. This paper discusses the potential of these new research techniques and what they have to offer researchers operating in the creative disciplines and beyond. This work builds on and extends Gauntlett’s “new creative methods” (2007) and contributes to the existing body of literature addressing creative and interactive approaches to data collection.

The significance of balcony acoustic treatments in mitigating urban road traffic noise

Urban road traffic noise in cities is an ongoing and increasing problem across much of the world. Consequently a large amount of effort is expended in attempts to address this problem, especially in the area of acoustic design of buildings. Acoustic design policies developed by government authorities will typically focus on required transport noise reductions through a building façade to meet a specified internal noise levels. The significance of balcony acoustic treatments has been highlighted in recent decades yet this area has potentially been considered less important than the need for acoustic isolation of building facades. This paper outlines recent research that has been conducted in determining the significance of balcony acoustic treatments in mitigating urban road traffic noise. It summarizes recent literature, some of which focuses on technological advances in the knowledge of balcony acoustic design and some literature discusses the overall aims and benefits of balcony acoustic design. The aim of this paper is to promote the use of balcony acoustic design as a significant element in the overall solution towards mitigating road traffic noise in modern cities.

Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) application auditing

Background WSUD implementation in the Gold Coast City Council area commenced more than a decade ago. As a result, Council is expected to be in possession of WSUD assets valued at over tens of million dollars. The Gold Coast City Council is responsible for the maintenance and long-term management of these WSUD assets. Any shortcoming in implementation of best WSUD practices can potentially result in substantial liabilities and ineffective expenditure for the Council in addition to reduced efficiencies and outcomes. This highlights the importance of periodic auditing of WSUD implementation. Project scope The overall study entailed the following tasks: * A state-of-the-art literature review of the conceptual hydraulic and water quality treatment principles, current state of knowledge in relation to industry standards, best practice and identification of knowledge gaps in relation to maintenance and management practices and potential barriers to the implementation of WSUD. * Council stakeholder interviews to understand current practical issues in relation to the implementation of WSUD and the process of WSUD application from development application approval to asset management. * Field auditing of selected WSUD systems for condition assessment and identification of possible strengths and weaknesses in implementation. * Review of the Land Development Guidelines in order to identify any gaps and to propose recommendations for improvement. Conclusions Given below is a consolidated summary of the findings of the study undertaken. State-of-the-art literature review Though the conceptual framework for WSUD implementation is well established, the underlying theoretical knowledge underpinning the treatment processes and maintenance regimes and life cycle costing are still not well understood. Essentially, these are the recurring themes in the literature, namely, the inadequate understanding of treatment processes and lack of guidance to ensure specificity of maintenance regimes and life cycle costing of WSUDs. The fundamental barriers to successful WSUD implementation are: * Lack of knowledge transfer – This essentially relates to the lack of appropriate dissemination of research outcomes and the common absence of protocols for knowledge transfer within the same organisation. * Cultural barriers – These relate to social and institutional factors, including institutional inertia and the lack of clear understanding of the benefits. * Fragmented responsibilities – This results from poor administrative integration within local councils in relation to WSUDs. * Technical barriers – These relate to lack of knowledge on operational and maintenance practices which is compounded by model limitations and the lack of long-term quantitative performance evaluation data. * Lack of engineering standards – Despite the availability of numerous guidelines which are non-enforceable and can sometimes be confusing, there is a need for stringent engineering standards. The knowledge gaps in relation to WSUDs are only closing very slowly. Some of the common knowledge gaps identified in recent publications have been recognised almost a decade ago. The key knowledge gaps identified in the published literature are: * lack of knowledge on operational and maintenance practices; * lack of reliable methodology for identifying life cycle issues including costs; * lack of technical knowledge on system performance; * lack of guidance on retrofitting in existing developments. Based on the review of barriers to WSUD implementation and current knowledge gaps, the following were identified as core areas for further investigation: * performance evaluation of WSUD devices to enhance model development and to assess their viability in the context of environmental, economic and social drivers; establishing realistic life cycle costs to strengthen maintenance and asset management practices; * development of guidelines specific to retrofitting in view of the unique challenges posed by existing urban precincts together with guidance to ensure site specificity; establishment of a process for knowledge translation for enhancing currently available best practice guidelines; * identification of drivers and overcoming of barriers in the areas of institutional fragmentation, knowledge gaps and awareness of WSUD practices. GCCC stakeholder interviews Fourteen staff members involved in WSUD systems management in the Gold Coast City Council, representing four Directorates were interviewed using a standard questionnaire. The primary issues identified by the stakeholders were: * standardisation of WSUD terminology; * clear protocols for safeguarding devices during the construction phase; * engagement of all council stakeholders in the WSUD process from the initial phase; * limitations in the Land Development Guidelines; * ensuring public safety through design; * system siting to avoid conflicts with environmental and public use of open space; * provision of adequate access for maintenance; * integration of social and ecosystem issues to ensure long-term viability of systems in relation to both, vandalism and visual recreation; * lack of performance monitoring and inadequacy of the maintenance budget; * lack of technical training for staff involved in WSUD design approvals and maintenance; incentives for developers for acting responsibly in stormwater management. Field auditing of WSUD systems A representative cross section of WSUD systems in the Gold Coast were audited in the field. The following strengths and weaknesses in WSUD implementation were noted: * The implementation of WSUD systems in the field is not consistent. * The concerns raised by the stakeholders during the interviews in relation to WSUD implementation was validated from the observations from the field auditing, particularly in relation to the following: * safeguarding of devices during the construction phase * public safety * accessibility for maintenance * lack of performance monitoring by Council to assess system performance * inadequate maintenance of existing systems to suit site specific requirements. * A treatment train approach is not being consistently adopted. * Most of the systems audited have satisfactorily catered for public safety. Accessibility for maintenance has been satisfactorily catered for in most of the systems that were audited. * Systems are being commissioned prior to construction activities being substantially completed. * The hydraulic design of most systems appears to be satisfactory. * The design intent of the systems is not always clear. Review of Land Development Guidelines The Land Development Guidelines (TDG) was extensively reviewed and the following primary issues were noted in relation to WSUD implementation: * the LDG appears to have been prepared primarily to provide guidance to developers. It is not clear to what extent the guidelines are applicable to Council staff involved in WSUD maintenance and management; * Section 13 is very voluminous and appears to be a compilation of a series of individual documents resulting in difficulties in locating specific information, a lack of integration and duplication of information; * the LDG has been developed with a primary focus on new urban precinct development and the retrofitting of systems in existing developments has not been specifically discussed; * WSUDs are discussed in two different sections in the LDG and it is not clear which section takes precedence as there are inconsistencies between the two sections; there is inconsistent terminology being used; * there is a need for consolidation of information provided in different sections in the LDG; * there are inconsistencies in the design criteria provided; * there is a need for regular updating of the LDG to ensure that the information provided encompasses the state-of-the-art; * there is limited guidance provided for the preparation of maintenance plans and life cycle costing to assist developers in asset handover and to assist Council staff in assessment. * Based on these observations, eleven recommendations have been provided which are discussed below. Additionally, the stakeholder provided the following specific comments during the interviews in relation to the LDG: * lack of flexibility to cover the different stages of the life cycle of the systems; * no differentiation in projects undertaken by developers and Council; * inadequate information with regards to safety issues such as maximum standing water depth, fencing and safety barriers and public access; * lack of detailed design criteria in relation to Crime Prevention through Environmental Design, safety, amenity, environment, surrounding uses and impacts on surroundings; * inadequate information regarding maintenance requirements specific to the assessment and compliance phases; * recommendations for plantings are based primarily on landscape requirements rather than pollutant uptake capability. Recommendations With regards to the Land Development Guidelines, the following specific recommendations are provided: 1. the relevant sections and their extent of applicability to Council should be clearly identified; 2. integration of the different subsections within Section 13 and re-formatting the document for easy reference; 3. the maintenance guidelines provided in Section 13 should be translated to a maintenance manual for guidance of Council staff; 4. should consider extending the Guidelines to specifically encompass retrofitting of WSUD systems to existing urban precincts; 5. Section 3 needs to be revised to be made consistent with Section 13, to ensure priority for WSUD practices in urban precincts and to move away from conventional stormwater drainage design such as kerb and channelling; 6. it would also be good to specify as to which Section takes predominance in relation to stormwater drainage. It is expected that Section 13 would take predominance over the other sections in the LDG; 7. terminology needs to be made consistent to avoid confusion among developers and Council staff. Water Sensitive Urban Design is the term commonly used in Australia for stormwater quality treatment, rather than Stormwater Quality Improvement Devices. This once again underlines the need for ensuring consistency between Section 3 and Section 13; 8. it would also be good if there is a glossary of commonly used terms in relation to WSUD for use by all stakeholders and which should also be reflected in the LDG; 9. consolidation of all WSUD information into one section should be considered together with appropriate indicators in other LDG Sections regarding the availability of WSUD information. Ensuring consistency in the information provided is implied; 10. Section 13 should be updated at regular intervals to ensure the incorporation of the latest in research outcomes and incorporating criteria and guidance based on the state-of-the-art knowledge. The updating could be undertaken, say, in five year cycles. This would help to overcome the current lack of knowledge transfer; 11. the Council should consider commissioning specialised studies to extend the current knowledge base in relation to WSUD maintenance and life cycle costing. Additionally, Recommendation 10 is also applicable in this instance. The following additional recommendations are made based on the state-of-the-art literature review, stakeholder interviews and field auditing of WSUD systems: 1. Performance monitoring of existing systems to assess improvements to water quality, identify modifications and enhancements to improve performance; 2. Appropriate and monitored maintenance during different phases of development of built assets over time is needed to investigate the most appropriate time/phase of development to commission the final WSUD asset. 3. Undertake focussed investigations in the areas of WSUD maintenance and asset management in order to establish more realistic life cycle costs of systems and maintenance schedules; 4. the engagement of all relevant Council stakeholders from the initial stage of concept planning through to asset handover, and ongoing monitoring. This close engagement of internal stakeholders will assist in building a greater understanding of responsibilities and contribute to overcoming constraints imposed by fragmented responsibilities; 5. the undertaking of a public education program to inform the community of the benefits and ecosystem functions of WSUD systems; 6. technical training to impart state-of-the-art knowledge to staff involved in the approval of designs and maintenance and management of WSUD projects; 7. during the construction phase, it is important to ensure that appropriate measures to safeguard WSUD devices are implemented; 8. risks associated with potential public access to open water zones should be minimised with the application of appropriate safety measures; 9. system siting should ensure that potential conflicts are avoided with respect to public and ecosystem needs; 10. integration of social and ecosystem issues to ensure long-term viability of systems; provide incentives to developers who are proactive and responsible in the area of stormwater management.

Improving the Walkability of Subtropical Urban Areas: a case study analysis for the development of a design process

This research develops a new framework to be used as a tool for analysing and designing walkable communities. The literature review recognises the work of other researchers combining their findings with the theory of activity nodes and considers how a framework may be used on a more global basis. The methodology develops a set of criteria through the analysis of noted successful case studies and this is then tested against an area with very low walking rates in Brisbane, Australia. Results of the study suggest that as well as the accepted criteria of connectivity, accessibility, safety, security, and path quality further criteria in the form or planning hierarchy, activity nodes and climate mitigation could be added to allow the framework to cover a broader context. Of particular note is the development of the nodal approach, which allows simple and effective analysis of existing conditions, and may also prove effective as a tool for planning and design of walkable communities.

Building contemporary urban spaces of knowledge and innovation : Lessons from Australian practice

In the era of global knowledge economy, urban regions that are seeking to increase their competitive edge, become destinations for talent and investment, and provide prosperity and quality of life to their inhabitants have little chance achieving their development goals without forming effective knowledge-based urban development strategies. This paper aims to shed light on the planning and development of the knowledge-based urban development phenomenon with respect to the construction of knowledge community precincts aimed at building contemporary urban spaces of knowledge and innovation. Following to a thorough review of the literature on knowledge-based urban development, the paper undertakes policy and best practice analyses to learn from the internationally renowned Australian knowledge community precincts, from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, to better understand the dynamics of knowledge community precinct development practices. The paper provides a discussion on the study findings and recommendations for successfully establishing contemporary urban spaces of knowledge and innovation.

Racial/ethnic variations in violence against women : Urban, suburban and rural differences

A large literature shows that violence against women in intimate relationships varies across racial/ethnic groups. However, it is unclear whether such variations differ across urban, suburban, and rural areas. The main objective of this article is to examine this issue using 1992 to 2009 National Crime Victimization Survey data. We also test the hypothesis that racial/ethnic minority women living in rural areas are more likely to be assaulted by their current and former intimate partners than are their urban and suburban counterparts. Contrary to expectations, results indicated virtually no differences in the rates at which urban, suburban, and rural racial/ethnic minority females were victims of intimate violence. The results indicate the great need of additional research into this important topic.

A micro-level indexing model for the assessment of sustainable urban ecosystems

During the last several decades, the quality of natural resources and their services have been exposed to significant degradation from increased urban populations combined with the sprawl of settlements, development of transportation networks and industrial activities (Dorsey, 2003; Pauleit et al., 2005). As a result of this environmental degradation, a sustainable framework for urban development is required to provide the resilience of natural resources and ecosystems. Sustainable urban development refers to the management of cities with adequate infrastructure to support the needs of its population for the present and future generations as well as maintain the sustainability of its ecosystems (UNEP/IETC, 2002; Yigitcanlar, 2010). One of the important strategic approaches for planning sustainable cities is „ecological planning‟. Ecological planning is a multi-dimensional concept that aims to preserve biodiversity richness and ecosystem productivity through the sustainable management of natural resources (Barnes et al., 2005). As stated by Baldwin (1985, p.4), ecological planning is the initiation and operation of activities to direct and control the acquisition, transformation, disruption and disposal of resources in a manner capable of sustaining human activities with a minimum disruption of ecosystem processes. Therefore, ecological planning is a powerful method for creating sustainable urban ecosystems. In order to explore the city as an ecosystem and investigate the interaction between the urban ecosystem and human activities, a holistic urban ecosystem sustainability assessment approach is required. Urban ecosystem sustainability assessment serves as a tool that helps policy and decision-makers in improving their actions towards sustainable urban development. There are several methods used in urban ecosystem sustainability assessment among which sustainability indicators and composite indices are the most commonly used tools for assessing the progress towards sustainable land use and urban management. Currently, a variety of composite indices are available to measure the sustainability at the local, national and international levels. However, the main conclusion drawn from the literature review is that they are too broad to be applied to assess local and micro level sustainability and no benchmark value for most of the indicators exists due to limited data availability and non-comparable data across countries. Mayer (2008, p. 280) advocates that by stating "as different as the indices may seem, many of them incorporate the same underlying data because of the small number of available sustainability datasets". Mori and Christodoulou (2011) also argue that this relative evaluation and comparison brings along biased assessments, as data only exists for some entities, which also means excluding many nations from evaluation and comparison. Thus, there is a need for developing an accurate and comprehensive micro-level urban ecosystem sustainability assessment method. In order to develop such a model, it is practical to adopt an approach that uses a method to utilise indicators for collecting data, designate certain threshold values or ranges, perform a comparative sustainability assessment via indices at the micro-level, and aggregate these assessment findings to the local level. Hereby, through this approach and model, it is possible to produce sufficient and reliable data to enable comparison at the local level, and provide useful results to inform the local planning, conservation and development decision-making process to secure sustainable ecosystems and urban futures. To advance research in this area, this study investigated the environmental impacts of an existing urban context by using a composite index with an aim to identify the interaction between urban ecosystems and human activities in the context of environmental sustainability. In this respect, this study developed a new comprehensive urban ecosystem sustainability assessment tool entitled the „Micro-level Urban-ecosystem Sustainability IndeX‟ (MUSIX). The MUSIX model is an indicator-based indexing model that investigates the factors affecting urban sustainability in a local context. The model outputs provide local and micro-level sustainability reporting guidance to help policy-making concerning environmental issues. A multi-method research approach, which is based on both quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, was employed in the construction of the MUSIX model. First, a qualitative research was conducted through an interpretive and critical literature review in developing a theoretical framework and indicator selection. Afterwards, a quantitative research was conducted through statistical and spatial analyses in data collection, processing and model application. The MUSIX model was tested in four pilot study sites selected from the Gold Coast City, Queensland, Australia. The model results detected the sustainability performance of current urban settings referring to six main issues of urban development: (1) hydrology, (2) ecology, (3) pollution, (4) location, (5) design, and; (6) efficiency. For each category, a set of core indicators was assigned which are intended to: (1) benchmark the current situation, strengths and weaknesses, (2) evaluate the efficiency of implemented plans, and; (3) measure the progress towards sustainable development. While the indicator set of the model provided specific information about the environmental impacts in the area at the parcel scale, the composite index score provided general information about the sustainability of the area at the neighbourhood scale. Finally, in light of the model findings, integrated ecological planning strategies were developed to guide the preparation and assessment of development and local area plans in conjunction with the Gold Coast Planning Scheme, which establishes regulatory provisions to achieve ecological sustainability through the formulation of place codes, development codes, constraint codes and other assessment criteria that provide guidance for best practice development solutions. These relevant strategies can be summarised as follows: • Establishing hydrological conservation through sustainable stormwater management in order to preserve the Earth’s water cycle and aquatic ecosystems; • Providing ecological conservation through sustainable ecosystem management in order to protect biological diversity and maintain the integrity of natural ecosystems; • Improving environmental quality through developing pollution prevention regulations and policies in order to promote high quality water resources, clean air and enhanced ecosystem health; • Creating sustainable mobility and accessibility through designing better local services and walkable neighbourhoods in order to promote safe environments and healthy communities; • Sustainable design of urban environment through climate responsive design in order to increase the efficient use of solar energy to provide thermal comfort, and; • Use of renewable resources through creating efficient communities in order to provide long-term management of natural resources for the sustainability of future generations.

Hybrid place : blurring the edge between the digital and physical layers of urban environments

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the edge condition between the digital layers and the physical layers of the city and how tangible expressions of the interrelationships between them to create and define new experiences of place, creating hybrid place. To date there has been discussion and investigation into understanding the importance of place, similarly into defining hybrid space. This paper explores principles of place and space to question how they can be applied into defining and proposing the notion of hybrid place in urban environments. The integration of media spaces into architecture provide infrastructure for the development of hybrid place. The physical boundaries of urban spaces become blurred through the integration of media such as computer technologies connecting the physical environment with the digital. Literature and case studies that reflect the current trends of use of technology by people in space and place within urban environments are examined.

Knowledge based urban development lessons from a non-western country : the Malaysia experience

Knowledge based urban development (KBUD) is seen as a new paradigm in urban planning and development which is now being implemented across the globe in order to increase the competitiveness of cities and regions. The KBUD concept has been widely applied in western and more developed countries over the last decade, and many have been proven successful. This paper, however, aims to provide an overview of the KBUD exercise in a context of a non western country scenario—Malaysia. Literature suggests that the urban development process in non western countries is different and very much focusing on physical elements. Whether this is the case or otherwise, this paper scrutinises the project of Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC), Malaysia, which is regarded as one of the first large scale manifestations of KBUD exercise in South East Asia. Based on development policies analysis and results of the interviews with the major stakeholders, this paper investigates the application of KBUD concept within the Malaysian context by examining the development and evolution of the city of Cyberjaya—the leading intelligent city of the MSC project. In the light of the literature and case findings, the paper provides recommendations and lessons learned, on the orchestration of KBUD, for other non western cities and regions that are working hard to develop KBUD strategies, strengthening their sustainable socio-spatial policies and seeking a global recognition.

Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.