A method for risk analysis across governance systems : a great barrier reef case study

Healthy governance systems are key to delivering sound environmental management outcomes from global to local scales. There are, however, surprisingly few risk assessment methods that can pinpoint those domains and sub-domains within governance systems that are most likely to influence good environmental outcomes at any particular scale, or those if absent or dysfunctional, most likely to prevent effective environmental management. This paper proposes a new risk assessment method for analysing governance systems. This method is then tested through its preliminary application to a significant real-world context: governance as it relates to the health of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The GBR exists at a supra-regional scale along most of the north eastern coast of Australia. Brodie et al (2012 Mar. Pollut. Bull. 65 81-100) have recently reviewed the state and trend of the health of the GBR, finding that overall trends remain of significant concern. At the same time, official international concern over the governance of the reef has recently been signalled globally by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). These environmental and political contexts make the GBR an ideal candidate for use in testing and reviewing the application of improved tools for governance risk assessment. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers and age: analysis of pooled human blood serum from birth to over 60 years

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are considered to be a cost effective and efficient way to reduce flammability therefore reducing harm caused by fires. PBDEs are incorporated into a variety of manufactured products and are found worldwide in biological and environmental samples (e.g. Hites et al. 2004). Unlike other persistent organic pollutants there is limited data on PBDE concentrations by age and/or other population specific factors. Some studies have shown no variation in adult serum PBDE concentrations with age (e.g. Mazdai et al., 2003, Meironyte Guvenius et al., 2003) while Petreas et al. (2003) and Schecter et al. (2005) found results to be suggestive of an age trend in adult data but no statistically significant correlation was found. In addition to the data on adult concentrations there is limited data which investigates the levels of PBDEs in infants and young children. Fangström et al. (2005) showed that in seven year olds there was no difference in PBDE concentration when compared to adult concentrations. While Thomsen et al. (2002, 2005) found the concentration of PBDEs in pooled samples of blood serum from a 0-4 years age group to be higher than other age groups (4 to > 60 years). In addition, a family of four was studied in the U.S. and the concentrations were found to be greatest in the 18-month-old infant followed by the 5 year old child, then the mother and father (Fischer et al., 2006). The objectives of this study were to assess age, gender and regional trends of PBDE concentrations in a representative sample of the Australian population.

Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever cases in Guangdong province, China

Background Dengue fever has been a major public health concern in China since it re-emerged in Guangdong province in 1978. This study aimed to explore spatiotemporal characteristics of dengue fever cases for both indigenous and imported cases during recent years in Guangdong province, so as to identify high-risk areas of the province and thereby help plan resource allocation for dengue interventions. Methods Notifiable cases of dengue fever were collected from all 123 counties of Guangdong province from 2005 to 2010. Descriptive temporal and spatial analysis were conducted, including plotting of seasonal distribution of cases, and creating choropleth maps of cumulative incidence by county. The space-time scan statistic was used to determine space-time clusters of dengue fever cases at the county level, and a geographical information system was used to visualize the location of the clusters. Analysis were stratified by imported and indigenous origin. Results 1658 dengue fever cases were recorded in Guangdong province during the study period, including 94 imported cases and 1564 indigenous cases. Both imported and indigenous cases occurred more frequently in autumn. The areas affected by the indigenous and imported cases presented a geographically expanding trend over the study period. The results showed that the most likely cluster of imported cases (relative risk = 7.52, p < 0.001) and indigenous cases (relative risk = 153.56, p < 0.001) occurred in the Pearl River Delta Area; while a secondary cluster of indigenous cases occurred in one district of the Chao Shan Area (relative risk = 471.25, p < 0.001). Conclusions This study demonstrated that the geographic range of imported and indigenous dengue fever cases has expanded over recent years, and cases were significantly clustered in two heavily urbanised areas of Guangdong province. This provides the foundation for further investigation of risk factors and interventions in these high-risk areas.

Identifying and forecasting the reverse salient in video game consoles: A performance gap ratio comparative analysis

This study uses the reverse salient methodology to contrast subsystems in video game consoles in order to discover, characterize, and forecast the most significant technology gap. We build on the current methodologies (Performance Gap and Time Gap) for measuring the magnitude of Reverse Salience, by showing the effectiveness of Performance Gap Ratio (PGR). The three subject subsystems in this analysis are the CPU Score, GPU core frequency, and video memory bandwidth. CPU Score is a metric developed for this project, which is the product of the core frequency, number of parallel cores, and instruction size. We measure the Performance Gap of each subsystem against concurrently available PC hardware on the market. Using PGR, we normalize the evolution of these technologies for comparative analysis. The results indicate that while CPU performance has historically been the Reverse Salient, video memory bandwidth has taken over as the quickest growing technology gap in the current generation. Finally, we create a technology forecasting model that shows how much the video RAM bandwidth gap will grow through 2019 should the current trend continue. This analysis can assist console developers in assigning resources to the next generation of platforms, which will ultimately result in longer hardware life cycles.

Monitoring illicit drug use through wastewater analysis in south east Queensland, Australia

Introduction and Aims: Wastewater analysis has become a useful technique for monitoring illicit drug use in communities. Findings have been reported from different countries in Europe and North America. We applied this technique to gauge the illicit drug consumption in an urban catchment from South East Queensland, Australia. Design and Methods: The sampling campaigns were conducted in 2009 (21st November – 2nd December) and 2010 (19th – 25th November). We collected daily composite wastewater samples from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant using continuous flow-proportional sampling. Ten illicit drug residues (parent compounds and key metabolites) in the samples were measured using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometer. Results: Seven compounds were quantified in all the samples. Our data indicated higher drug consumption on weekends. Cannabis was the highest used drug in both sampling periods. Compared to the first sampling campaign which indicated that cocaine and methamphetamine use exceeded ecstasy usage, the second sampling campaign suggested the use of methamphetamine exceeded that of ecstasy which in turn exceeded cocaine use. Discussion and Conclusions: The observed weekly trend of drug use in our study is in agreement with findings in other studies. The variation between two sampling periods in the prevalence of drug use may relate to the availability and prices of the drugs on markets. The cocaine use we estimated in 2009 was much greater than estimations obtained through the national household survey [1], implying under- reporting of cocaine use in surveys. Future work is underway to tackle methodological challenges for more accurate estimation.

Mechanical analysis of foot plantar fascia during normal walking condition

Foot plantar fascia is an important foot tissue in stabilizing the longitudinal arch of human foot. Direct measurement to monitor the mechanical situation of plantar fascia at human locomotion is difficult. The purpose of this study was to construct a three-dimensional finite element model of the foot to calculate the internal stress/strain value of plantar fascia during different stage of gait. The simulated stress distribution of plantar fascia was the lowest at heel-strike, which concentrated on the medial side of calcaneal tubercle. The peak stress of plantar fascia was appeared at push-off, and the value is more than 5 times of the heel-strike position. Current FE model was able to explore the plantar fascia tension trend at the main sub-phases of foot. More detailed fascia model and intrinsic muscle forces could be developed in the further study.

Statistical modelling and power analysis for detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads

The export of sediments from coastal catchments can have detrimental impacts on estuaries and near shore reef ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef. Catchment management approaches aimed at reducing sediment loads require monitoring to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing loads over time. However, load estimation is not a trivial task due to the complex behaviour of constituents in natural streams, the variability of water flows and often a limited amount of data. Regression is commonly used for load estimation and provides a fundamental tool for trend estimation by standardising the other time specific covariates such as flow. This study investigates whether load estimates and resultant power to detect trends can be enhanced by (i) modelling the error structure so that temporal correlation can be better quantified, (ii) making use of predictive variables, and (iii) by identifying an efficient and feasible sampling strategy that may be used to reduce sampling error. To achieve this, we propose a new regression model that includes an innovative compounding errors model structure and uses two additional predictive variables (average discounted flow and turbidity). By combining this modelling approach with a new, regularly optimised, sampling strategy, which adds uniformity to the event sampling strategy, the predictive power was increased to 90%. Using the enhanced regression model proposed here, it was possible to detect a trend of 20% over 20 years. This result is in stark contrast to previous conclusions presented in the literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anticipating Chinese Tourists Arrivals in Australia: A Time Series Analysis

Given the growing importance of the Chinese tourist market to Australia, an understanding of Chinese tourists' arrival patterns is essential to accurate forecasting of future arrivals. Drawing on 25 years of records (1991-2015), this study developed a time-series model of monthly arrivals of Chinese tourists in Australia. The model reflects the exponentially increasing trend and strong seasonality of arrivals. Excellent results from validation of the model's forecasts endorsed this time-series model's potential in the policy prescription and management practice of Australian tourism industries.

Statutory licences and third party dealings: Property analysis v statutory interpretation

Statutory licensing schemes are proliferating as a means of regulating commercial activity, resource exploitation and activities harmful to the environment. Statutes often declare that entitlements are non-transferable or are transferable only with approval or subject to conditions. Some entitlements, such as resource consents issued under the Resource Management Act 1991 (NZ), are declared not to be property. Despite these statutory declarations, entitlements are often held to be transferable in equity or to be property for the purposes of resolving private disputes. Recently, in Greenshell New Zealand Ltd v Tikapa Moana Enterprises Ltd, the High Court of New Zealand indicated that a resource consent was property that could support a claim for relief against forfeiture, continuing the trend in earlier cases that appear to depart from the statute. In this article we examine the juridical treatment of entitlements in private law. We identify factors influencing the courts’ enforcement of private arrangements which may circumvent the statutory intent. Our analysis will guide legislators in the design of provisions to implement new schemes.

Raman microscopy of formamide-intercalated kaolinites treated by controlled-rate thermal analysis technology

Raman spectroscopy of formamide-intercalated kaolinites treated using controlled-rate thermal analysis technology (CRTA), allowing the separation of adsorbed formamide from intercalated formamide in formamide-intercalated kaolinites, is reported. The Raman spectra of the CRTA-treated formamide-intercalated kaolinites are significantly different from those of the intercalated kaolinites, which display a combination of both intercalated and adsorbed formamide. An intense band is observed at 3629 cm-1, attributed to the inner surface hydroxyls hydrogen bonded to the formamide. Broad bands are observed at 3600 and 3639 cm-1, assigned to the inner surface hydroxyls, which are hydrogen bonded to the adsorbed water molecules. The hydroxyl-stretching band of the inner hydroxyl is observed at 3621 cm-1 in the Raman spectra of the CRTA-treated formamide-intercalated kaolinites. The results of thermal analysis show that the amount of intercalated formamide between the kaolinite layers is independent of the presence of water. Significant differences are observed in the CO stretching region between the adsorbed and intercalated formamide.

Detailed analysis of a conservative difference approximation for the time fractional diffusion equation

Diffusion equations that use time fractional derivatives are attractive because they describe a wealth of problems involving non-Markovian Random walks. The time fractional diffusion equation (TFDE) is obtained from the standard diffusion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative with a fractional derivative of order α ∈ (0, 1). Developing numerical methods for solving fractional partial differential equations is a new research field and the theoretical analysis of the numerical methods associated with them is not fully developed. In this paper an explicit conservative difference approximation (ECDA) for TFDE is proposed. We give a detailed analysis for this ECDA and generate discrete models of random walk suitable for simulating random variables whose spatial probability density evolves in time according to this fractional diffusion equation. The stability and convergence of the ECDA for TFDE in a bounded domain are discussed. Finally, some numerical examples are presented to show the application of the present technique.