Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Total heat transfer measurements on a flight investigation of reentry environment model

Stagnation-point total heat transfer was measured on a 1:27.7 model of the Flight Investigation of Reentry Environment II flight vehicle. Experiments were performed in the X1 expansion tube at an equivalent flight velocity and static enthalpy of 11 km/s and 12.7 MJ/kg, respectively. Conditions were chosen to replicate the flight condition at a total flight time of 1639.5 s, where radiation contributed an estimated 17-36% of the total heat transfer. This contribution is theorized to reduce to <2% in the scaled experiments, and the heating environment on the test model was expected to be dominated by convection. A correlation between reported flight heating rates and expected experimental heating, referred to as the reduced flight value, was developed to predict the level of heating expected on the test model. At the given flow conditions, the reduced flight value was calculated to be 150 MW/m2. Average stagnation-point total heat transfer was measured to be 140 ± 7% W/m2, showing good agreement with the predicted value. Experimentally measured heat transfer was found to have good agreement of between 5 and 15% with a number of convective heating correlations, confirming that convection dominates the tunnel heating environment, and that useful experimental measurements could be made in weakly coupled radiating flow

Circles in the surf : Australian masculinity, mortality and grief

This article examines the constructs of masculinity that are predominant in contemporary Australian society and their influence upon men's perception of their health and well-being. It questions the currency of ‘male stoicism’ at a time when changed perceptions of masculinity are emerging. In particular, it considers how these constructs are evidenced in men's embracing of human mortality and their public expressions of grief. The nature of men's health promotion is discussed and a platform for promoting healthy approaches to masculinity, mortality and grief is presented.

Distribution state estimation based on particle swarm and doubly loop mutant optimization (DLM-PSO)

This paper presents a novel algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) to estimate the states of electric distribution networks. In order to improve the performance, accuracy, convergence speed, and eliminate the stagnation effect of original PSO, a secondary PSO loop and mutation algorithm as well as stretching function is proposed. For accounting uncertainties of loads in distribution networks, pseudo-measurements is modeled as loads with the realistic errors. Simulation results on 6-bus radial and 34-bus IEEE test distribution networks show that the distribution state estimation based on proposed DLM-PSO presents lower estimation error and standard deviation in comparison with algorithms such as WLS, GA, HBMO, and original PSO.

H2-O2 porous fuel injection in a radical farming scramjet

This paper reports on the experimental testing of oxygen compatible ceramic matrix composite porous injectors in a nominally two-dimensional hydrogen fuelled and oxygen enriched radical farming scramjet in the T4 shock tunnel facility. All experiments were performed at a dynamic pressure of 146 kPa, an equivalent flight Mach number of 9.7, a stagnation pressure and enthalpy of 40MPa and 4.3 MJ/kg respectively and at a fuelling condition that resulted in an average equivalence ratio of 0.472. Oxygen was pre-mixed with the fuel prior to injection to achieve enrichment percentages of approximately 13%, 15% and 17%. These levels ensured that the hydrogen-oxidiser mix injected into the engine always remained too fuel rich to sustain a flame without any additional mixing with the captured air. Addition of pre-mixed oxygen with the fuel was found to significantly alter the performance of the engine; enhancing both combustion and ignition and converting a previously observed limited combustion condition into one with sustained and noticeable combustion induced pressure rise. Increases in the enrichment percentage lead to further increases in combustion levels and acted to reduce ignition lengths within the engine. Suppressed combustion runs, where a nitrogen test gas was used, confirmed that the pressure rise observed in these experiments as attributed to the oxygen enrichment and not associated with the increased mass injected.

Radiative and total heat transfer measurements to a Titan Explorer model

Radiative and total heat transfer at the flow stagnation point of a 1:40.8 binary scaled model of the Titan Explorer vehicle were measured in the X3 expansion tube. Results from the current study illustrated that with the addition of CH4 into a N2 test gas radiative heat transfer could be detected. For a test gas of 5% CH4 and 95% N2, simulating an atmospheric model for Titanic aerocapture, approximately 4% of the experimentally measured total stagnation point heat transfer was found to be due to radiation. This was in comparison to < 1% measured for a test gas of pure nitrogen. When scaled to the flight vehicle, experimental results indicate a 64% contribution of radiation (test gas 5% CH4/95% N2). Previous numerical results however have predicted this contribution to be between 80-92%. Thus, experimental results from the current study suggest that numerical analyses are over-predicting the radiative heat transfer on the flight vehicle.

Measuring child work and residence adjustments to parents' long-term care needs

This article estimates the effects of various parent and child characteristics on the choice of care arrangement of the parent, taking into account the potential endogeneity of some of the child characteristics. Three equations are estimated: a care choice equation, a child location equation, and a child work equation. Results suggest a hierarchy of family decision making; child locations affect the care decision, which affects child work decisions. The results also question previous research attempting to explain causes of secular trends in long-term care.

A Combined Renormalization Group-Multiple Scale Method for Singularly Perturbed Problems

This paper introduces a straightforward method to asymptotically solve a variety of initial and boundary value problems for singularly perturbed ordinary differential equations whose solution structure can be anticipated. The approach is simpler than conventional methods, including those based on asymptotic matching or on eliminating secular terms. © 2010 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Reduction of amplitude equations by the renormalization group approach

This article elucidates and analyzes the fundamental underlying structure of the renormalization group (RG) approach as it applies to the solution of any differential equation involving multiple scales. The amplitude equation derived through the elimination of secular terms arising from a naive perturbation expansion of the solution to these equations by the RG approach is reduced to an algebraic equation which is expressed in terms of the Thiele semi-invariants or cumulants of the eliminant sequence { Zi } i=1 . Its use is illustrated through the solution of both linear and nonlinear perturbation problems and certain results from the literature are recovered as special cases. The fundamental structure that emerges from the application of the RG approach is not the amplitude equation but the aforementioned algebraic equation. © 2008 The American Physical Society.

Particle size distribution effects on preferential deposition areas in metal foam wrapped tube bundle

This paper presents a numerical model for understanding particle transport and deposition in metal foam heat exchangers. Two-dimensional steady and unsteady numerical simulations of a standard single row metal foam-wrapped tube bundle are performed for different particle size distributions, i.e. uniform and normal distributions. Effects of different particle sizes and fluid inlet velocities on the overall particle transport inside and outside the foam layer are also investigated. It was noted that the simplification made in the previously-published numerical works in the literature, e.g. uniform particle deposition in the foam, is not necessarily accurate at least for the cases considered here. The results highlight the preferential particle deposition areas both along the tube walls and inside the foam using a developed particle deposition likelihood matrix. This likelihood matrix is developed based on three criteria being particle local velocity, time spent in the foam, and volume fraction. It was noted that the particles tend to deposit near both front and rear stagnation points. The former is explained by the higher momentum and direct exposure of the particles to the foam while the latter only accommodate small particles which can be entrained in the recirculation region formed behind the foam-wrapped tubes.

Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Porous versus porthole fuel injection in a radical farming scramjet: A numerical analysis

Numerically computed engine performance of a nominally two-dimensional radical farming scramjet with porous (permeable C/C ceramic) and porthole fuel injection is presented. Inflow conditions with Mach number, stagnation pressure, and enthalpy of 6.44, 40.2MPa, and 4.31 MJ/kg respectively, and fuel/air equivalence ratio of 0.44 were maintained, along with engine geometry. Hydrogen fuel was injected at an axial location of 92.33mm downstream of the leading edge for each investigated injection method. Results from this study show that porous fuel injection results in enhanced mixing and combustion compared to porthole fuel injection. This is particularly evident within the first half of the combustion chamber where porous fuel injection resulted in mixing and combustion efficiencies of 76% and 63% respectively. At the same location, porthole fuel injection resulted in efficiencies respectively of 58% and 46%. Key mechanisms contributing to the observed improved performance were the formation of an attached oblique fuel injection shock and associated stronger shock-expansion train ingested by the engine, enhanced spreading of the fuel in all directions and a more rapidly growing mixing layer.

On the symbiosis of law and truth in Christian theology: Reconciling universal and particular through the Pauline law of love

This article argues that the secular liberal and positivist foundations of the modern Western legal system render it violent. In particular, the liberal exclusion of faith and subjectivity in favour of abstract and universal reason in conjunction with its privileging of individual autonomy at the expense of the community leads to alienation of the individual from the community. Similarly, the positivist exclusion of faith and theology from law, with its enforced conformity to the posited law, also results in this violence of alienation. In response, this article proposes a new foundation for law, a natural law based in the truth of Trinitarian theology articulated by John Milbank. In the Trinity, the members exist as a perfect unity in diversity, providing a model for the reconciliation of the legal individual and community: the law of love. Through the law of love as the basic norm, individuals love their neighbours as themselves, reconciling the particular and the universal, and providing a community of peace rather than violence.

The epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China, 2004–2012 : from intensified control to elimination

Background In China, the national malaria elimination programme has been operating since 2010. This study aimed to explore the epidemiological changes in patterns of malaria in China from intensified control to elimination stages. Methods Data on nationwide malaria cases from 2004 to 2012 were extracted from the Chinese national malaria surveillance system. The secular trend, gender and age features, seasonality, and spatial distribution by Plasmodium species were analysed. Results In total, 238,443 malaria cases were reported, and the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum increased drastically from <10% before 2010 to 55.2% in 2012. From 2004 to 2006, malaria showed a significantly increasing trend and with the highest incidence peak in 2006 (4.6/100,000), while from 2007 onwards, malaria decreased sharply to only 0.18/100,000 in 2012. Males and young age groups became the predominantly affected population. The areas affected by Plasmodium vivax malaria shrunk, while areas affected by P. falciparum malaria expanded from 294 counties in 2004 to 600 counties in 2012. Conclusions This study demonstrated that malaria has decreased dramatically in the last five years, especially since the Chinese government launched a malaria elimination programme in 2010, and areas with reported falciparum malaria cases have expanded over recent years. These findings suggest that elimination efforts should be improved to meet these changes, so as to achieve the nationwide malaria elimination goal in China in 2020.