The influence of conformity and group identity on drink walking intentions : comparing intentions to drink walk across risky pedestrian crossing scenarios

Despite the dangers associated with drink walking, limited research is currently available regarding the factors which influence individuals to engage in this risky behaviour. This study examined the influence of psychosocial factors upon individuals’ intentions to drink walk across four experimental scenarios (and a control condition). Specifically, a 2 × 2 repeated measures design was utilised in which all of the scenarios incorporated a risky pedestrian crossing situation (i.e., a pedestrian crossing against a red man signal) but differed according to the level of group identity (i.e., low/strangers and high/friends) and conformity (low and high). Individuals were assessed for their intentions to drink walk within each of these different scenarios. Undergraduate students (N = 151), aged 17–30 years, completed a questionnaire. Overall, most of the study's hypotheses were supported with individuals reporting the highest intentions to drink walk when in the presence of friends (i.e., high group identity) and their friends were said to be also crossing against the red man signal (i.e., high conformity). The findings may have significant implications for the design of countermeasures to reduce drink walking. For instance, the current findings would suggest that potentially effective strategies may be to promote resilience to peer influence as well as highlight the negative consequences associated with following the behaviour of other intoxicated pedestrians who are crossing against a red signal.

A review of models and model usage scenarios for an airport complex system

Airports represent the epitome of complex systems with multiple stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions and complex interactions between many actors. The large number of existing models that capture different aspects of the airport are a testament to this. However, these existing models do not consider in a systematic sense modelling requirements nor how stakeholders such as airport operators or airlines would make use of these models. This can detrimentally impact on the verification and validation of models and makes the development of extensible and reusable modelling tools difficult. This paper develops from the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) framework a methodology to help structure the review and development of modelling capabilities and usage scenarios. The method is applied to the review of existing airport terminal passenger models. It is found that existing models can be broadly categorised according to four usage scenarios: capacity planning, operational planning and design, security policy and planning, and airport performance review. The models, the performance metrics that they evaluate and their usage scenarios are discussed. It is found that capacity and operational planning models predominantly focus on performance metrics such as waiting time, service time and congestion whereas performance review models attempt to link those to passenger satisfaction outcomes. Security policy models on the other hand focus on probabilistic risk assessment. However, there is an emerging focus on the need to be able to capture trade-offs between multiple criteria such as security and processing time. Based on the CONOPS framework and literature findings, guidance is provided for the development of future airport terminal models.

Experimental validation of an unpowered unmanned aerial system : application to forced landing scenarios

The ability to perform autonomous emergency (forced) landings is one of the key technology enablers identified for UAS. This paper presents the flight test results of forced landings involving a UAS, in a controlled environment, and which was conducted to ascertain the performances of previously developed (and published) path planning and guidance algorithms. These novel 3-D nonlinear algorithms have been designed to control the vehicle in both the lateral and longitudinal planes of motion. These algorithms have hitherto been verified in simulation. A modified Boomerang 60 RC aircraft is used as the flight test platform, with associated onboard and ground support equipment sourced Off-the-Shelf or developed in-house at the Australian Research Centre for Aerospace Automation(ARCAA). HITL simulations were conducted prior to the flight tests and displayed good landing performance, however, due to certain identified interfacing errors, the flight results differed from that obtained in simulation. This paper details the lessons learnt and presents a plausible solution for the way forward.

A visual language for the collaborative visualization of integrated conceptual models in product development scenarios

In various industrial and scientific fields, conceptual models are derived from real world problem spaces to understand and communicate containing entities and coherencies. Abstracted models mirror the common understanding and information demand of engineers, who apply conceptual models for performing their daily tasks. However, most standardized models in Process Management, Product Lifecycle Management and Enterprise Resource Planning lack of a scientific foundation for their notation. In collaboration scenarios with stakeholders from several disciplines, tailored conceptual models complicate communication processes, as a common understanding is not shared or implemented in specific models. To support direct communication between experts from several disciplines, a visual language is developed which allows a common visualization of discipline-specific conceptual models. For visual discrimination and to overcome visual complexity issues, conceptual models are arranged in a three-dimensional space. The visual language introduced here follows and extends established principles of Visual Language science.

Using scenarios to explore the social aspects of design led innovations

Emerging technologies have redefined the way people go about everyday life. An increasing array of online and on-the-go solutions supporting remote work, entertainment on demand, information sharing, social communication, telehealth and beyond, are now available at the touch of a screen. This paper discusses concept of scenarios as a design tool that can be successfully employed by organisations as an innovative design led approach to: (i) understand people’s everyday practices in current social contexts in order to identify opportunities and emerging markets, and (ii) reveal stakeholder relationships existing in the provision of services within current everyday practices. To illustrate this approach, two case studies will be presented: the first focusing on a real industry project exploring opportunities for the development of future health care services, the second focusing on people’s access to services as part of a transport journey experience. This paper aims to demonstrate the use of scenarios as part of a design led innovation approach to understand the social aspects and their complexities of new designs in an increasing everyday technological driven context.

A framework for automated identification of attack scenarios on IT infrastructures

Due to increased complexity, scale, and functionality of information and telecommunication (IT) infrastructures, every day new exploits and vulnerabilities are discovered. These vulnerabilities are most of the time used by ma¬licious people to penetrate these IT infrastructures for mainly disrupting business or stealing intellectual pro¬perties. Current incidents prove that it is not sufficient anymore to perform manual security tests of the IT infra¬structure based on sporadic security audits. Instead net¬works should be continuously tested against possible attacks. In this paper we present current results and challenges towards realizing automated and scalable solutions to identify possible attack scenarios in an IT in¬frastructure. Namely, we define an extensible frame¬work which uses public vulnerability databases to identify pro¬bable multi-step attacks in an IT infrastructure, and pro¬vide recommendations in the form of patching strategies, topology changes, and configuration updates.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Projecting future transmission of malaria under climate change scenarios : challenges and research needs

There has been an intense debate about climatic impacts on the transmission of malaria. It is vitally important to accurately project future impacts of climate change on malaria to support effective policy–making and intervention activity concerning malaria control and prevention. This paper critically reviewed the published literature and examined both key findings and methodological issues in projecting future impacts of climate change on malaria transmission. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases MEDLINE, Web of Science and PubMed. The projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission were spatially heterogeneous and somewhat inconsistent. The variation in results may be explained by the interaction of climatic factors and malaria transmission cycles, variations in projection frameworks and uncertainties of future socioecological (including climate) changes. Current knowledge gaps are identified, future research directions are proposed and public health implications are assessed. Improving the understanding of the dynamic effects of climate on malaria transmission cycles, the advancement of modelling techniques and the incorporation of uncertainties in future socioecological changes are critical factors for projecting the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method

In this paper we present a novel application of scenario methods to engage a diverse constituency of senior stakeholders, with limited time availability, in debate to inform planning and policy development. Our case study project explores post-carbon futures for the Latrobe Valley region of the Australian state of Victoria. Our approach involved initial deductive development of two ‘extreme scenarios’ by a multi-disciplinary research team, based upon an extensive research programme. Over four workshops with the stakeholder constituency, these initial scenarios were discussed, challenged, refined and expanded through an inductive process, whereby participants took ‘ownership’ of a final set of three scenarios. These were both comfortable and challenging to them. The outcomes of this process subsequently informed public policy development for the region. Whilst this process did not follow a single extant structured, multi-stage scenario approach, neither was it devoid of form. Here, we seek to theorise and codify elements of our process – which we term ‘scenario improvisation’ – such that others may adopt it.

The changing experiences of primary teachers: Responding to scenarios involving diverse sexualities

Sex education and diverse sexualities are controversial topics within the primary school arena. Concepts of childhood innocence have influenced sex education curriculum, policy development and teaching practices within schools. However, research shows that primary school-aged students are aware of and talk about sexualities. The aim of this research is to reveal the pedagogical experiences of primary school teachers in relation to scenarios inclusive of diverse sexualities. Social constructionist theories of pedagogy and phenomenographic methods are used to provide a detailed analysis of the ways in which primary teacher participants conceptualise their encounters with students who introduce concepts of diverse sexualities. This research reveals that primary students ask questions about diverse sexualities, they use homophobic expressions (often as a daily occurrence), they sometimes reveal homosexual feelings to teachers, some have same-sex parents and some are being raised with knowledge of diverse sexualities. Without comprehensive policy and curriculum support, and appropriate professional learning for teachers, teachers are unable to make well informed pedagogical decisions that promote inclusive education.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

With the accelerated trend of global warming, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were typically designed based on current weather data, may not be able to cope with the future climate. This paper quantifies, through computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system. It is found from the sample office building examined that the existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. When the annual average temperature increase exceeds 2°C, the risk of current office buildings subjected to overheating will be significantly increased. For existing buildings which are designed with current climate condition, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings, in which the possible global warming has been taken into account in the design, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under 2070 High scenario would be required to improve the building thermal comfort level to an acceptable standard.