Waste not want not: Applying an old adage to the modern issue of pharmaceutical waste

Our predecessors taught us, ‘waste not, want not’ – if we did not waste anything we would always have enough. Unfortunately, we did not heed their sage advice. Over the last three centuries, human kind’s wastefulness, or lack of respect for the finite resources of this planet, has contributed to climate change and negatively impacted on ‘ecosystem services’ with a significant, irreversible loss of biodiversity...

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

Born leaders: Political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress

We present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favour of those who were the eldest in their cohort at school. This result adds to the research on the long-term effects of relative age among peers at school. We discuss parametric and non-parametric tests to identify this effect, and we show that it is not driven by measurement error, redshirting or a sorting effect of highly educated parents. The magnitude of the effect that we estimate is larger than what other studies on ‘relative age effects’ have found for broader populations but is in general consistent with research that looks at professional sportsmen. We also find that relative age does not seem to correlate with the quality of elected politicians.

DNA sequences and austral taxa indicate generic synonymy of Paratrichocladius Santos-Abreu with Cricotopus Wulp (Diptera: Chironomidae)

In the century since the description of the orthoclad genus Paratrichocladius Santos-Abreu (Diptera: Chironomidae), separation in any life stage from the cosmopolitan, diverse Cricotopus Wulp has been problematic. Molecular analysis reveals the presence of two species in Australia that conform in morphology to Paratrichocladius and which form a well-supported clade including Paratrichocladius micans (Kieffer) from Africa and a distinct southern African larva. This clade clusters with taxa allied with Cricotopus albitibia (Walker), in turn nested within all other sampled Australian Cricotopus. Relevant nodes strongly support Cricotopus as nonmonophyletic without inclusion of Paratrichocladius. We synonymize Paratrichocladius with Cricotopus syn.n, treating Paratrichocladius as a subgenus. Cricotopus (Paratrichocladius) australiensis Cranston sp.n. is described for Trichocladius pluriserialis Freeman from Australia, which is not the same species under that name in New Zealand. Cricotopus (Paratrichocladius) bifenestrus Cranston sp.n. from Australia is described, also in all life stages. The many new combinations, listed in an Appendix, include three replacement names for new secondary homonyms, namely: Cricotopus (Paratrichocladius) sinobicinctus Cranston & Krosch nom.n. for Paratrichocladius bicinctus Fu, Sæther & Wang, Cricotopus draysoni Cranston & Krosch nom.n. for Cricotopus brevicornis Drayson, Krosch & Cranston, and Cricotopus (Paratrichocladius) sikhotealinus Makarchenko & Makarchenko nom.n. for Cricotopus orientalis Kieffer. We conclude with comments on wider issues in the taxonomy of Paratrichocladius, especially concerning New Zealand species.

Lobbying by ethnic groups and aid allocation

We develop a political-economic model of foreign aid allocation. Each ethnic group in the donor country lobbies the government to allocate more aid to its country of origin, and the government accepts political contributions from lobby groups. Initial per-capita income of the recipients and those of the ethnic groups are shown to be important determinants of the solution of the political equilibrium. We also examine the effects of changes in the degree of corruption, aid fatigue, and ethnic composition, in the donor country on the allocation of aid.

Revisiting Coptotermes (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae): a global taxonomic road map for species validity and distribution of an economically important subterranean termite genus

Coptotermes Wasmann (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) is one of the most economically important subterranean termite genera and some species are successful invaders. However, despite its important pest status, the taxonomic validity of many named Coptotermes species remains unclear. In this study, we reviewed all named species within the genus and investigated evidence supporting the validity of each named species. Species were systematically scrutinized according to the region of their original description: Southeast Asia, India, China, Africa, the Neotropics, and Australia. We estimate that of the currently 69 named species described by accepted nomenclatural rules, only 21 taxa have solid evidence for validity, 44 names have uncertain status, and the remaining species names should be synonymized or were made unavailable. Species with high degrees of invasiveness may be known under additional junior synonyms due to independent parochial descriptions. Molecular data for a vast majority of species are scarce and significant effort is needed to complete the taxonomic and phylogenetic revision of the genus. Because of the wide distribution of Coptotermes, we advocate for an integrative taxonomic effort to establish the distribution of each putative species, provide specimens and corresponding molecular data, check original descriptions and type specimens (if available), and provide evidence for a more robust phylogenetic position of each species. This study embodies both consensus and contention of those studying Coptotermes and thus pinpoints the current uncertainty of many species. This project is intended to be a roadmap for identifying those Coptotermes species names that need to be more thoroughly investigated, as an incentive to complete a necessary revision process.