Recent developments in expressed emotion and schizophrenia.

Reviews outcome studies on the course of schizophrenia as predicted by expressed emotion (EE) and considers methodological issues. The nature of EE and the mechanism for the predictive results are explored. EE probably determines relapse through its effect on emotions and symptom control. A stress-vulnerability model of relapse is advanced that incorporates biological factors and cycles of mutual influence between symptomatic behavior, life events, and EE. A social interaction model of schizophrenia may help to alleviate concerns that EE represents an attempt to blame families for schizophrenic relapse. Aversive types of behavior in patients and their relatives are seen as understandable reactions to stress that are moderated by social perceptions and coping skills. Families have made positive achievements, including the provision of noninvasive support.

Application of a continuum theory to vertical vibrations of a layer of granular material

Many interesting phenomena have been observed in layers of granular materials subjected to vertical oscillations; these include the formation of a variety of standing wave patterns, and the occurrence of isolated features called oscillons, which alternately form conical heaps and craters oscillating at one-half of the forcing frequency. No continuum-based explanation of these phenomena has previously been proposed. We apply a continuum theory, termed the double-shearing theory, which has had success in analyzing various problems in the flow of granular materials, to the problem of a layer of granular material on a vertically vibrating rigid base undergoing vertical oscillations in plane strain. There exists a trivial solution in which the layer moves as a rigid body. By investigating linear perturbations of this solution, we find that at certain amplitudes and frequencies this trivial solution can bifurcate. The time dependence of the perturbed solution is governed by Mathieu’s equation, which allows stable, unstable and periodic solutions, and the observed period-doubling behaviour. Several solutions for the spatial velocity distribution are obtained; these include one in which the surface undergoes vertical velocities that have sinusoidal dependence on the horizontal space dimension, which corresponds to the formation of striped standing waves, and is one of the observed patterns. An alternative continuum theory of granular material mechanics, in which the principal axes of stress and rate-of-deformation are coincident, is shown to be incapable of giving rise to similar instabilities.

Labelled silhouettes for human pose estimation

This paper proposes a new method of using foreground silhouette images for human pose estimation. Labels are introduced to the silhouette images, providing an extra layer of information that can be used in the model fitting process. The pixels in the silhouettes are labelled according to the corresponding body part in the model of the current fit, with the labels propagated into the silhouette of the next frame to be used in the fitting for the next frame. Both single and multi-view implementations are detailed, with results showing performance improvements over only using standard unlabelled silhouettes.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Effect of soil parameter uncertainty on seismic response of buried segmented pipeline

Pipelines are important lifeline facilities spread over a large area and they generally encounter a range of seismic hazards and different soil conditions. The seismic response of a buried segmented pipe depends on various parameters such as the type of buried pipe material and joints, end restraint conditions, soil characteristics, burial depths, and earthquake ground motion, etc. This study highlights the effect of the variation of geotechnical properties of the surrounding soil on seismic response of a buried pipeline. The variations of the properties of the surrounding soil along the pipe are described by sampling them from predefined probability distribution. The soil-pipe interaction model is developed in OpenSEES. Nonlinear earthquake time-history analysis is performed to study the effect of soil parameters variability on the response of pipeline. Based on the results, it is found that uncertainty in soil parameters may result in significant response variability of the pipeline.

An analysis of the KEEP CLEAR pavement markings effects on queuing vehicles dynamic performance at urban signalised intersections

KEEP CLEAR pavement markings are widely used at urban signalised intersections to indicate to drivers to avoid entering blocked intersections. For example, ‘Box junctions’ are most widely used in the United Kingdom and other European countries. However, in Australia, KEEP CLEAR markings are mostly used to improve access from side roads onto a main road, especially when the side road is very close to a signalised intersection. This paper aims to reveal how the KEEP CLEAR markings affect the dynamic performance of the queuing vehicles on the main road, where the side road access is near a signalised intersection. Raw traffic field data was collected from an intersection at the Gold Coast, Australia, and the Kanade–Lucas–Tomasi (KLT) feature tracker approach was used to extract dynamic vehicle data from the raw video footage. The data analysis reveals that the KEEP CLEAR markings generate positive effects on the queuing vehicles in discharge on the main road. This finding refutes the traditional viewpoint that the KEEP CLEAR pavement markings will cause delay for the queuing vehicles’ departure due to the enlarged queue spacing. Further studies are suggested in this paper as well.

Controlling buoyancy-driven profiling floats for applications in ocean observation

Establishing a persistent presence in the ocean with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) capable of observing temporal variability of large-scale ocean processes requires a unique sensor platform. In this paper, we examine the utility of vehicles that can only control their depth in the water column for such extended deployments. We present a strategy that utilizes ocean model predictions to facilitate a basic level of autonomy and enables general control for these profiling floats. The proposed method is based on experimentally validated techniques for utilizing ocean current models to control autonomous gliders. With the appropriate vertical actuation, and utilizing spatio–temporal variations in water speed and direction, we show that general controllability results can be met. First, we apply an A* planner to a local controllability map generated from predictions of ocean currents. This computes a path between start and goal waypoints that has the highest likelihood of successful execution. A computed depth plan is generated with a model-predictive controller (MPC), and selects the depths for the vehicle so that ambient currents guide it toward the goal. Mission constraints are included to simulate and motivate a practical data collection mission. Results are presented in simulation for a mission off the coast of Los Angeles, CA, USA, that show encouraging results in the ability of a drifting vehicle to reach a desired location.

Investigation of homocysteine-pathway-related variants in essential hypertension

Hyperhomocysteinemia (hHcy) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke. Essential hypertension (EH), a polygenic condition, has also been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular related disorders. To investigate the role of the homocysteine (Hcy) metabolism pathway in hypertension we conducted a case-control association study of Hcy pathway gene variants in a cohort of Caucasian hypertensives and age- and sex-matched normotensives. We genotyped two polymorphisms in the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene (MTHFR C677T and MTHFR A1298C), one polymorphism in the methionine synthase reductase gene (MTRR A66G), and one polymorphism in the methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase 1 gene (MTHFD1 G1958A) and assessed their association with hypertension using chi-square analysis. We also performed a multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) analysis to investigate any potential epistatic interactions among the four polymorphisms and EH. None of the four polymorphisms was significantly associated with EH and although we found a moderate synergistic interaction between MTHFR A1298C and MTRR A66G, the association of the interaction model with EH was not statistically significant (

Ultimate flexural limit states analysis of prestressed concrete sleeper

Railway is one of the most important, reliable and widely used means of transportation, carrying freight, passengers, minerals, grains, etc. Thus, research on railway tracks is extremely important for the development of railway engineering and technologies. The safe operation of a railway track is based on the railway track structure that includes rails, fasteners, pads, sleepers, ballast, subballast and formation. Sleepers are very important components of the entire structure and may be made of timber, concrete, steel or synthetic materials. Concrete sleepers were first installed around the middle of last century and currently are installed in great numbers around the world. Consequently, the design of concrete sleepers has a direct impact on the safe operation of railways. The "permissible stress" method is currently most commonly used to design sleepers. However, the permissible stress principle does not consider the ultimate strength of materials, probabilities of actual loads, and the risks associated with failure, all of which could lead to the conclusion of cost-ineffectiveness and over design of current prestressed concrete sleepers. Recently the limit states design method, which appeared in the last century and has been already applied in the design of buildings, bridges, etc, is proposed as a better method for the design of prestressed concrete sleepers. The limit states design has significant advantages compared to the permissible stress design, such as the utilisation of the full strength of the member, and a rational analysis of the probabilities related to sleeper strength and applied loads. This research aims to apply the ultimate limit states design to the prestressed concrete sleeper, namely to obtain the load factors of both static and dynamic loads for the ultimate limit states design equations. However, the sleepers in rail tracks require different safety levels for different types of tracks, which mean the different types of tracks have different load factors of limit states design equations. Therefore, the core tasks of this research are to find the load factors of the static component and dynamic component of loads on track and the strength reduction factor of the sleeper bending strength for the ultimate limit states design equations for four main types of tracks, i.e., heavy haul, freight, medium speed passenger and high speed passenger tracks. To find those factors, the multiple samples of static loads, dynamic loads and their distributions are needed. In the four types of tracks, the heavy haul track has the measured data from Braeside Line (A heavy haul line in Central Queensland), and the distributions of both static and dynamic loads can be found from these data. The other three types of tracks have no measured data from sites and the experimental data are hardly available. In order to generate the data samples and obtain their distributions, the computer based simulations were employed and assumed the wheel-track impacts as induced by different sizes of wheel flats. A valid simulation package named DTrack was firstly employed to generate the dynamic loads for the freight and medium speed passenger tracks. However, DTrack is only valid for the tracks which carry low or medium speed vehicles. Therefore, a 3-D finite element (FE) model was then established for the wheel-track impact analysis of the high speed track. This FE model has been validated by comparing its simulation results with the DTrack simulation results, and with the results from traditional theoretical calculations based on the case of heavy haul track. Furthermore, the dynamic load data of the high speed track were obtained from the FE model and the distributions of both static and dynamic loads were extracted accordingly. All derived distributions of loads were fitted by appropriate functions. Through extrapolating those distributions, the important parameters of distributions for the static load induced sleeper bending moment and the extreme wheel-rail impact force induced sleeper dynamic bending moments and finally, the load factors, were obtained. Eventually, the load factors were obtained by the limit states design calibration based on reliability analyses with the derived distributions. After that, a sensitivity analysis was performed and the reliability of the achieved limit states design equations was confirmed. It has been found that the limit states design can be effectively applied to railway concrete sleepers. This research significantly contributes to railway engineering and the track safety area. It helps to decrease the failure and risks of track structure and accidents; better determines the load range for existing sleepers in track; better rates the strength of concrete sleepers to support bigger impact and loads on railway track; increases the reliability of the concrete sleepers and hugely saves investments on railway industries. Based on this research, many other bodies of research can be promoted in the future. Firstly, it has been found that the 3-D FE model is suitable for the study of track loadings and track structure vibrations. Secondly, the equations for serviceability and damageability limit states can be developed based on the concepts of limit states design equations of concrete sleepers obtained in this research, which are for the ultimate limit states.

The impact of a congestion pricing exemption on the demand for new energy efficient vehicles in Stockholm

As governments seek to transition to more efficient vehicle fleets, one strategy has been to incentivize ‘green’ vehicle choice by exempting some of these vehicles from road user charges. As an example, to stimulate sales of Energy-Efficient Vehicles (EEVs) in Sweden, some of these automobiles were exempted from Stockholm’s congestion tax. In this paper the effect this policy had on the demand for new, privately-owned, exempt EEVs is assessed by first estimating a model of vehicle choice and then by applying this model to simulate vehicle alternative market shares under different policy scenarios. The database used to calibrate the model includes owner-specific demographics merged with vehicle registry data for all new private vehicles registered in Stockholm County during 2008. Characteristics of individuals with a higher propensity to purchase an exempt EEV were identified. The most significant factors included intra-cordon residency (positive), distance from home to the CBD (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). By calculating vehicle shares from the vehicle choice model and then comparing these estimates to a simulated scenario where the congestion tax exemption was inactive, the exemption was estimated to have substantially increased the share of newly purchased, private, exempt EEVs in Stockholm by 1.8% (+/- 0.3%; 95% C.I.) to a total share of 18.8%. This amounts to an estimated 10.7% increase in private, exempt EEV purchases during 2008 i.e. 519 privately owned, exempt EEVs.

Translating biomechanics research into clinical practice

There is a large amount of research conducted each year examining every aspect of the mechanics of the human body and its interaction with medical devices and the environment; from the cellular level through to the whole body. While, as researchers, we obtain great pleasure from conducting studies and creating new knowledge we need to keep in mind that while this is a good thing it is even better if this new knowledge can lead to improvement in the quality of life for individuals suffering from biomechanical disorders. Such that while commercialisation is a good aim, not all research leads to marketable outcomes. However, it can lead to improvements in surgical techniques and clinical practice. It is important for us to identify and promote how the outcomes of research lead to improvements in quality of care, as this is perhaps the most important outcome for individual patients.

Detection of anuran calling activity in long field recordings for bio-acoustic monitoring

This paper presents a system to analyze long field recordings with low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for bio-acoustic monitoring. A method based on spectral peak track, Shannon entropy, harmonic structure and oscillation structure is proposed to automatically detect anuran (frog) calling activity. Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is introduced for modelling those features. Four anuran species widespread in Queensland, Australia, are selected to evaluate the proposed system. A visualization method based on extracted indices is employed for detection of anuran calling activity which achieves high accuracy.

Comparison between computational models of abdominal aortic aneurysm

Objective: To compare the differences in the hemodynamic parameters of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) between fluid-structure interaction model (FSIM) and fluid-only model (FM), so as to discuss their application in the research of AAA. Methods: An idealized AAA model was created based on patient-specific AAA data. In FM, the flow, pressure and wall shear stress (WSS) were computed using finite volume method. In FSIM, an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian algorithm was used to solve the flow in a continuously deforming geometry. The hemodynamic parameters of both models were obtained for discussion. Results: Under the same inlet velocity, there were only two symmetrical vortexes in the AAA dilation area for FSIM. In contrast, four recirculation areas existed in FM; two were main vortexes and the other two were secondary flow, which were located between the main recirculation area and the arterial wall. Six local pressure concentrations occurred in the distal end of AAA and the recirculation area for FM. However, there were only two local pressure concentrations in FSIM. The vortex center of the recirculation area in FSIM was much more close to the distal end of AAA and the area was much larger because of AAA expansion. Four extreme values of WSS existed at the proximal of AAA, the point of boundary layer separation, the point of flow reattachment and the distal end of AAA, respectively, in both FM and FSIM. The maximum wall stress and the largest wall deformation were both located at the proximal and distal end of AAA. Conclusions: The number and center of the recirculation area for both models are different, while the change of vortex is closely associated with the AAA growth. The largest WSS of FSIM is 36% smaller than that of FM. Both the maximum wall stress and largest wall displacement shall increase with the outlet pressure increasing. FSIM needs to be considered for studying the relationship between AAA growth and shear stress.

Soft tissue human thigh and buttock finite element model to simulate vehicle seat cushion indentation

Accurate modelling of automotive occupant posture is strongly related to the mechanical interaction between human body soft tissue and flexible seat components. This paper presents a finite-element study simulating the deflection of seat cushion foam and supportive seat structures, as well as human buttock and thigh soft tissue when seated. The thigh-buttock surface shell model was based on 95th percentile male subject scan data and made of two layers, covering thin to moderate thigh and buttock proportions. To replicate the effects of skin and fat, the neoprene rubber layer was modelled as a hyperelastic material with viscoelastic behaviour. The analytical seat model is based on a Ford production seat. The result of the finite-element indentation simulation is compared to a previous simulation of an indentation with a hard shell human model of equal geometry, and to the physical indentation result. We conclude that SAE composite buttock form and human-seat indentation of a suspended seat cushion can be validly simulated.

Multi-vehicles interaction graph model for cooperative collision warning system

Cooperative collision warning system for road vehicles, enabled by recent advances in positioning systems and wireless communication technologies, can potentially reduce traffic accident significantly. To improve the system, we propose a graph model to represent interactions between multiple road vehicles in a specific region and at a specific time. Given a list of vehicles in vicinity, we can generate the interaction graph using several rules that consider vehicle's properties such as position, speed, heading, etc. Safety applications can use the model to improve emergency warning accuracy and optimize wireless channel usage. The model allows us to develop some congestion control strategies for an efficient multi-hop broadcast protocol.