83 resultados para Price cycles
Resumo:
AGL Wholesale Gas Ltd v Origin Energy Ltd [2008] QCA 366 involved an appeal against the setting aside of paragraphs of a subpoena issued under s 17 of the Commercial Arbitration Act 1990 (Qld). The Court was satisfied that even if the documents were of “apparent relevance” to the subject matter of the proceedings, it would nevertheless be oppressive to require their production.
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A fundamental proposition is that the accuracy of the designer's tender price forecasts is positively correlated with the amount of information available for that project. The paper describes an empirical study of the effects of the quantity of information available on practicing Quantity Surveyors' forecasting accuracy. The methodology involved the surveyors repeatedly revising tender price forecasts on receipt of chunks of project information. Each of twelve surveyors undertook two projects and selected information chunks from a total of sixteen information types. The analysis indicated marked differences in accuracy between different project types and experts/non-experts. The expert surveyors' forecasts were not found to be significantly improved by information other than that of basic building type and size, even after eliminating project type effects. The expert surveyors' forecasts based on the knowledge of building type and size alone were, however, found to be of similar accuracy to that of average practitioners pricing full bills of quantities.
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The construction industry contains two types of estimators the contractors' estimator and the designers' price forecaster. Each has two models of the building in which to systemize his procedures - the production model and the design model. The use of these models is discussed in the light of the industry's particular problems of complexity and uncertainty together with the pressures of the market. It is argued that estimators and forecasters, in order to function effectively in these conditions, are forced to exercise a high degree of subjective judgment. Means of eliciting good heuristics involved in judgment making are considered by reference to the artificial intelligence and construction literature and a methodology is proposed based on these findings. The results of two early trials of the method with students are given, indicating the usefulness of the approach.
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We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.
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Time and space are fundamental to human language and embodied cognition. In our early work we investigated how Lingodroids, robots with the ability to build their own maps, could evolve their own geopersonal spatial language. In subsequent studies we extended the framework developed for learning spatial concepts and words to learning temporal intervals. This paper considers a new aspect of time, the naming of concepts like morning, afternoon, dawn, and dusk, which are events that are part of day-night cycles, but are not defined by specific time points on a clock. Grounding of such terms refers to events and features of the diurnal cycle, such as light levels. We studied event-based time in which robots experienced day-night cycles that varied with the seasons throughout a year. Then we used meet-at tasks to demonstrate that the words learned were grounded, where the times to meet were morning and afternoon, rather than specific clock times. The studies show how words and concepts for a novel aspect of cyclic time can be grounded through experience with events rather than by times as measured by clocks or calendars
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Creative Statement: “There are those who see Planet Earth as a gigantic living being, one that feeds and nurtures humanity and myriad other species – an entity that must be cared for. Then there are those who see it as a rock full of riches to be pilfered heedlessly in a short-term quest for over-abundance. This ‘cradle to grave’ mentality, it would seem, is taking its toll (unless you’re a virulent disbeliever in climate change). Why not, ask artists Priscilla Bracks and Gavin Sade, take a different approach? To this end they have set out on a near impossible task; to visualise the staggering quantity of carbon produced by Australia every year. Their eerie, glowing plastic cube resembles something straight out of Dr Who or The X Files. And, like the best science fiction, it has technical realities at its heart. Every One, Every Day tangibly illustrates our greenhouse gas output – its 27m3 volume is approximately the amount of green-house gas emitted per capita, daily. Every One, Every Dayis lit by an array of LED’s displaying light patterns representing energy use generated by data from the Australian Energy Market. Every One, Every Day was formed from recycled, polyethylene – used milk bottles – ‘lent’ to the artists by a Visy recycling facility. At the end of the Vivid Festival this plastic will be returned to Visy, where it will re-enter the stream of ‘technical nutrients.’ Could we make another world? One that emulates the continuing cycles of nature? One that uses our ‘technical nutrients’ such as plastic and steel in continual cycles, just like a deciduous tree dropping leaves to compost itself and keep it’s roots warm and moist?” (Ashleigh Crawford. Melbourne – April, 2013) Artistic Research Statement: The research focus of this work is on exploring how to represent complex statistics and data at a human scale, and how produce a work where a large percentage of the materials could be recycled. The surface of Every One, Every Day is clad in tiles made from polyethylene, from primarily recycled milk bottles, ‘lent’ to the artists by the Visy recycling facility in Sydney. The tiles will be returned to Visy for recycling. As such the work can be viewed as an intervention in the industrial ecology of polyethylene, and in the process demonstrates how to sustain cycles of technical materials – by taking the output of a recycling facility back to a manufacturer to produce usable materials. In terms of data visualisation, Every One, Every Day takes the form of a cube with a volume of 27 cubic meters. The annual per capita emissions figures for Australia are cited as ranging between 18 to 25 tons. Assuming the lower figure, 18tons per capital annually, the 27 cubic meters represents approximately one day per capita of CO2 emissions – where CO2 is a gas at 15C and 1 atmosphere of pressure. The work also explores real time data visualisation by using an array of 600 controllable LEDs inside the cube. Illumination patterns are derived from a real time data from the Australian Energy Market, using the dispatch interval price and demand graph for New South Wales. The two variables of demand and price are mapped to properties of the illumination - hue, brightness, movement, frequency etc. The research underpinning the project spanned industrial ecology to data visualization and public art practices. The result is that Every One, Every Day is one of the first public artworks that successfully bring together materials, physical form, and real time data representation in a unified whole.
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This study investigates whether and how a firm’s ownership and corporate governance affect its timeliness of price discovery, which is referred to as the speed of incorporation of value-relevant information into the stock price. Using a panel data of 1,138 Australian firm-year observations from 2001 to 2008, we predict and find a non-linear relationship between ownership concentration and the timeliness of price discovery. We test the identity of the largest shareholder and find that only firms with family as the largest shareholder exhibit faster price discovery. There is no evidence that suggests that the presence of a second largest shareholder affects the timeliness of price discovery materially. Although we find a positive association between corporate governance quality and the timeliness of price discovery, as expected, there is no interaction effect between the largest shareholding and corporate governance in relation to the timeliness of price discovery. Further tests show no evidence of severe endogeneity problems in our study.
Resumo:
This research is an autoethnographic investigation of consumption experiences, public and quasi-public spaces, and their relationship to community within an inner city neighbourhood. The research specifically focuses on the gentrifying inner city, where class-based processes of change can have implications for people’s abilities to remain within, or feel connected to place. However, the thesis draws on broader theories of the throwntogetherness of the contemporary city (e.g., Amin and Thrift, 2002; Massey 2005) to argue that the city is a space where place-based meanings cannot be seen to be fixed, and are instead better understood as events of place – based on ever shifting interrelations between the trajectories of people and things. This perspective argues the experience of belonging to community is not just born of a social encounter, but also draws on the physical and symbolic elements of the context in which it is situated. The thesis particularly explores the ways people construct identifications within this shifting urban environment. As such, consumption practices and spaces offer one important lens through which to explore the interplay of the physical, social and symbolic. Consumer research tells us that consumption practices can facilitate experiences in which identity-defining meaning can be generated and shared. Consumption spaces can also support different kinds of collective identification – as anchoring realms for specific cultural groups or exposure realms that enable individuals to share in the identification practices of others with limited risk (Aubert-Gamet & Cova, 1999). Furthermore, the consumption-based lifestyles that gentrifying inner city neighbourhoods both support and encourage can also mean that consumption practices may be a key reason that people are moving through public space. That is, consumption practices and spaces may provide a purpose for which – and spatial frame against which – our everyday interactions and connections with people and objects are undertaken within such neighbourhoods. The purpose of this investigation then was to delve into the subjectivities at the heart of identifying with places, using the lens of our consumption-based experiences within them. The enquiry describes individual and collective identifications and emotional connections, and explores how these arise within and through our experiences within public and quasi-public spaces. It then theorises these ‘imaginings’ as representative of an experience of community. To do so, it draws on theories of imagination and its relation to community. Theories of imagined community remind us that both the values and identities of community are held together by projections that create relational links out of objects and shared practices (e.g., Benedict Anderson, 2006; Urry, 2000). Drawing on broader theories of the processes of the imagination, this thesis suggests that an interplay between reflexivity and fantasy – which are products of the critical and the fascinated consciousness – plays a role in this imagining of community (e.g., Brann, 1991; Ricoeur, 1994). This thesis therefore seeks to explore how these processes of imagining are implicated within the construction of an experience of belonging to neighbourhood-based community through consumption practices and the public and quasi-public spaces that frame them. The key question of this thesis is how do an individual’s consumption practices work to construct an imagined presence of neighbourhood-based community? Given the focus on public and quasi-public spaces and our experiences within them, the research also asked how do experiences in the public and quasi-public spaces that frame these practices contribute to the construction of this imagined presence? This investigation of imagining community through consumption practices is based on my own experiences of moving to, and attempting to construct community connections within, an inner city neighbourhood in Melbourne, Australia. To do so, I adopted autoethnographic methodology. This is because autoethnography provides the methodological tools through which one can explore and make visible the subjectivities inherent within the lived experiences of interest to the thesis (Ellis, 2004). I describe imagining community through consumption as an extension of a placebased self. This self is manifest through personal identification in consumption spaces that operate as anchoring realms for specific cultural groups, as well as through a broader imagining of spaces, people, and practices as connected through experiences within realms of exposure. However, this is a process that oscillates through cycles of identification; these anchor one within place personally, but also disrupt those attachments. This instability can force one to question the orientation and motives of these imaginings, and reframe them according to different spaces and reference groups in ways that can also work to construct a more anonymous and, conversely, more achievable collective identification. All the while, the ‘I’ at the heart of this identification is in an ongoing process of negotiation, and similarly, the imagined community is never complete. That is, imagining community is a negotiation, with people and spaces – but mostly with the different identifications of the self. This thesis has been undertaken by publication, and thus the process of imagining community is explored and described through four papers. Of these, the first two focus on specific types of consumption spaces – a bar and a shopping centre – and consider the ways that anchoring and exposure within these spaces support the process of imagining community. The third paper examines the ways that the public and quasi-public spaces that make up the broader neighbourhood context are themselves throwntogether as a realm of exposure, and considers the ways this shapes my imaginings of this neighbourhood as community. The final paper develops a theory of imagined community, as a process of comparison and contrast with imagined others, to provide a summative conceptualisation of the first three papers. The first paper, chapter five, explores this process of comparison and contrast in relation to authenticity, which in itself is a subjective assessment of identity. This chapter was written as a direct response to the recent work of Zukin (2010), and draws on theories of authenticity as applied to personal and collective identification practices by consumer researchers Arnould and Price (2000). In this chapter, I describe how my assessments of the authenticity of my anchoring experiences within one specific consumption space, a neighbourhood bar, are evaluated in comparison to my observations of and affective reactions to the social practices of another group of residents in a different consumption space, the local shopping centre. Chapter five also provides an overview of the key sites and experiences that are considered in more detail in the following two chapters. In chapter six, I again draw on my experiences within the bar introduced in chapter five, this time to explore the process of developing a regular identity within a specific consumption space. Addressing the popular theory of the cafe or bar as third place (Oldenburg, 1999), this paper considers the purpose of developing anchored relationships with people within specific consumption spaces, and explores the different ways this may be achieved in an urban context where the mobilities and lifestyle practices of residents complicate the idea of a consumption space as an anchoring or third place. In doing so, this chapter also considers the manner in which this type of regular identification may be seen to be the beginning of the process of imagining community. In chapter seven, I consider the ways the broader public spaces of the neighbourhood work cumulatively to expose different aspects of its identity by following my everyday movements through the neighbourhood’s shopping centre and main street. Drawing on the theories of Urry (2000), Massey (2005), and Amin (2007, 2008), this chapter describes how these spaces operate as exposure realms, enabling the expression of different senses of the neighbourhood’s spaces, times, cultures, and identities through their physical, social, and symbolic elements. Yet they also enable them to be united: through habitual pathways, group practices of appropriation of space, and memory traces that construct connections between objects and experiences. This chapter describes this as a process of exposure to these different elements. Our imagination begins to expand the scope of the frames onto which it projects an imagined presence; it searches for patterns within the physical, social, and symbolic environment and draws connections between people and practices across spaces. As the final paper, chapter eight, deduces, it is in making these connections that one constructs the objects and shared practices of imagined community. This chapter describes this as an imagining of neighbourhood as a place-based extension of the self, and then explores the ways in which I drew on physical, social, and symbolic elements in an attempt to construct a fit between the neighbourhood’s offerings and my desires for place-based identity definition. This was as a cumulative but fragmented process, in which positive and negative experiences of interaction and identification with people and things were searched for their potential to operate as the objects and shared practices of imagined community. This chapter describes these connections as constructed through interplay between reflexivity and fantasy, as the imagination seeks balance between desires for experiences of belonging, and the complexities of constructing them within the throwntogether context of the contemporary city. The conclusion of the thesis describes the process of imagining community as a reflexive fantasy, that is, as a product of both the critical and fascinated consciousness (Ricoeur, 1994). It suggests that the fascinated consciousness imbues experiences with hope and desire, which the reflexive imagining can turn to disappointment and shame as it critically reflects on the reality of those fascinated projections. At the same time, the reflexive imagination also searches the practices of others for affirmation of those projections, effectively seeking to prove the reality of the fantasy of the imagined community.
Resumo:
China is experiencing rapid progress in industrialization, with its own rationale toward industrial land development based on a deliberate change from an extensive to intensive form of urban land use. One result has been concerted attempts by local government to attract foreign investment by a low industrial land price strategy, which has resulted in a disproportionally large amount of industrial land within the total urban land use structure at the expense of the urban sprawl of many cities. This paper first examines “Comparable Benchmark Price as Residential land use” (CBPR) as the theoretical basis of the low industrial land price phenomenon. Empirical findings are presented from a case study based on data from Jinyun County, China. These data are analyzed to reveal the rationale of industrial land price from 2000 to 2010 concerning the CBPR model. We then explore the causes of low industrial land prices in the form of a “Centipede Game Model”, involving two neighborhood regions as “major players” to make a set of moves (or strategies). When one of the players unilaterally reduces the land price to attract investment with the aim to maximize profits arising from the revenues generated from foreign investment and land premiums, a two-player price war begins in the form of a dynamic game, the effect of which is to produce a downward spiral of prices. In this context, the paradox of maximizing profits for each of the two players are not accomplished due to the inter-regional competition of attracted investment leading to a lose-lose situation for both sides’ in competing for land premium revenues. A short-term solution to the problem is offered involving the establishment of inter-regional cooperative partnerships. For the longer term, however, a comprehensive reform of the local financial system, more adroit regional planning and an improved means of evaluating government performance is needed to ensure the government's role in securing pubic goods is not abandoned in favor of one solely concerned with revenue generation.
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Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.
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Recently we reported the presence of bacteria within follicular fluid. Previous studies have reported that DNA fragmentation in human spermatozoa after in vivo or in vitro incubation with bacteria results in early embryo demise and a reduced rate of ongoing pregnancy, but the effect of bacteria on oocytes is unknown. This study examined the DNA within mouse oocytes after 12 hours’ incubation within human follicular fluids (n = 5), which were collected from women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment. Each follicular fluid sample was cultured to detect the presence of bacteria. Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase mediated dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL) was used to label DNA fragmentation in ovulated, non-fertilized mouse oocytes following in vitro incubation in human follicular fluid. The bacteria Streptococcus anginosus and Peptoniphilus spp., Lactobacillus gasseri (low-dose), L. gasseri (high-dose), Enterococcus faecalis, or Propionibacterium acnes were detected within the follicular fluids. The most severe DNA fragmentation was observed in oocytes incubated in the follicular fluids containing P. acnes or L. gasseri (high-dose). No DNA fragmentation was observed in the mouse oocytes incubated in the follicular fluid containing low-dose L. gasseri or E. faecalis. Low human oocyte fertilization rates (<29%) were associated with extensive fragmentation in mouse oocytes (80–100%). Bacteria colonizing human follicular fluid in vivo may cause DNA fragmentation in mouse oocytes following 12 h of in vitro incubation. Follicular fluid bacteria may result in poor quality oocytes and/or embryos, leading to poor IVF outcomes.
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As a renewable energy source, wind power is playing an increasingly important role in China’s electricity supply. Meanwhile, China is also the world’s largest market for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) wind power projects. Based on the data of 27 wind power projects of Inner Mongolia registered with the Executive Board of the United Nations (EB) in 2010, this paper constructs a financial model of Net Present Value (NPV) to analyze the cost of wind power electricity. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to examine the impact of different variables with and without Certified Emission Reduction (CER) income brought about by the CDM. It is concluded that the CDM, along with static investment and annual wind electricity production, is one of the most significant factors in promoting the development of wind power in China. Additionally, wind power is envisaged as a practical proposition for competing with thermal power if the appropriate actions identified in the paper are made.