Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

When film, fashion & interiors collide: Designing the After Darkly Graduate Fashion Show

In 2013 QUT Interior Design and Fashion Disciplines partnered to design the Catwalk for the QUT After Darkly Graduate Fashion Show. The ephemeral work (catwalk canopy and cinematic affects) was developed through collaboration between the authors based upon an undergraduate interior design unit ‘Filmic Interiors’ in which students were tasked with designing a fashion show. Filmic Interiors exploited the potential of film to influence, understand, and develop novel interior spaces through consideration of mise-en-scene, cinematic effects and atmospheric design strategies engaged by key film directors Jean Pierre Jeunet and Darren Aronofsky. The design outcome represents a hybridisation of student design proposals, contemplating both film and emerging collections from graduate fashion students. The work explored a number of iterations each testing material qualities and immaterial cinematic affects, as a means to develop new space. The process was led by experimentation undertaken by the designers through previous studio explorations surrounding the theme of ‘Strange Space’ and design practice ‘Making Strange’(Lindquist & Pytel, 2012). In doing so, the work paralleled the material formations of ‘obsessive collections’ and ‘making do’ evident in Jeunet’s scenography, rendering uncanny hybrid space (Ezra, 2008). Evocation of the immaterial found in much of director Aronofsky’s work, also became critical in the atmospheric experience intended for the show. This paper explores the process of collaboration and material experimentation in design, approached through a filmic lens. It provides insight into what happens when one enters into what can be termed an ‘ecology of production’, whereby the experimental making becomes the collaborative agent between designers, disciplines, and between stage and spectators. Finally it underlines the importance of ‘finding the work’ through material making and testing rather than through more controlled formalistic responses.

Velum

Velum continues material experimentation with edible materials as explored within Formations: New Practices in Australian Architecture 2012. 1 The work employs the central theme of veiling as a ‘second skin’, an intermediary agent simultaneously engaging with Heideggerian themes of ‘nearness and revealing’ (1927, 1954). This second skin creates a liminality distorting everyday objects of popular culture and technological consumption. In doing so, the work puts forth multiple considerations, the figurative play upon consumption itself; the role of the strange and obscure to affect a deepening awareness of our accelerated consumption and experience; and more tangentially, questions surrounding imminent scenarios of hybridity between body and technology. Velum represents a recent focus of the authors’ creative practice, ‘Making Strange’ (Strange Making) published and presented elsewhere. Making Strange explores the sublime process, fundamental to both the final design outcome and the designing experience. The sublime process is seen as a leading, a physiological overpowering of self to a state of intense self-presence, often leading to self-transcendence or state of otherness. As such, the work engages with the body and materials, experimentally and in a trans-disciplinary manner to inform new material practice.

Affective sensing + wearable imaging: Vision impairment and implications for spatial enquiry

Recent interest in affect and the body have mobilized a contemporary review of aesthetics and phenomenology within architecture to unpack how environments affect spatial experience. Emerging spatial studies within the neuro-sciences, and their implications for architectural research as raised by architectural theorists Juhani Pallasmaa (2014) and Harry Mallgrave (2013) has been well supported by a raft of scientists and institutions including the prestigious Salk Institute. Although there has been some headway in spatial studies of the vision impaired (Cattaneo et al, 2011) to understand the role of their non-visual systems in assisting navigation and location, little is discussed in terms of their other abilities in sensing particular qualities of space which impinge upon emotion. This paper reviews a collection of studies exploring face vision and echo-location, amongst others, which provide insight into what might be termed affective perception of the vision impaired, and how further interplay between this research and the architectural field can contribute new knowledge regarding space and affect. By engaging with themes from the Aesthetics, Phenomenology and indeed Neuro-science fields, the paper provides background of current and potential cross disciplinary research, and highlights the role wearable technologies can play in enhancing knowledge of affective spatial experience.

The level of FoxO1 and IL-15 in skeletal muscle, serum and synovial fluid in people with knee osteoarthritis: a case control study

Objectives Impaired muscle function is common in knee osteoarthritis (OA). Numerous biochemical molecules have been implicated in the development of OA; however, these have only been identified in the joint and serum. This study compared the expression of interleukin (IL-15) and Forkhead box protein-O1 (FoxO1) in muscle of patients with knee OA asymptomatic individuals, and examined whether IL-15 was also present in the joint and serum. Method Muscle and blood samples were collected from 19 patients with diagnosed knee OA and 10 age-matched asymptomatic individuals. Synovial fluid and muscle biopsies were collected from the OA group during knee replacement surgery. IL-15 and FoxO1were measured in the skeletal muscle. IL-15 abundance was also analysed in the serum of both groups and synovial fluid from the OA group. Knee extensor strength was measured and correlated with IL-15 and FoxO1 in the muscle. Results FoxO1 protein expression was higher (p=0.04), whereas IL-15 expression was lower (p=0.02) in the muscle of the OA group. Strength was also lower in the OA group, and was inversely correlated with FoxO1 expression. No correlation was found between IL-15 in the joint, muscle or serum. Conclusion Skeletal muscle, particularly the quadriceps, is affected in people with knee OA where elevated FoxO1 protein expression was associated with reduced muscle strength. While IL-15 protein expression in the muscle was lower in the knee OA group, no correlation was found between the expression of IL-15 protein in the muscle, joint and serum, which suggests that inflammation is regulated differently within these tissues.

Affective Sensing: Vision Impairment and Implications for Spatial Enquiry

Recent interest in affect and the body have mobilised a contemporary review of aesthetics and phenomenology within architecture to unpack how environments affect spatial experience. Emerging spatial studies within the neurosciences, and their implications for architectural research as raised by architectural theorists has been well supported by a raft of scientists and institutions. Although there has been some headway in spatial studies of the vision impaired (Cattaneo et al., 2011) to understand the role of their non-visual systems in assisting navigation and location, little is discussed in terms of their other abilities in sensing particular qualities of space which impinge upon emotion and wellbeing. This research explores, through published studies and constructed spatial interviews, the affective perception of the vision impaired and how further interplay between this research and the architectural field can contribute new knowledge regarding space and affect. The research aims to provide background of current and potential cross disciplinary research and highlight the role wearable technologies can play in enhancing knowledge of affective spatial experience.

The sublime, affective process + architectural production

A year before Kate Nesbitt’s Theorising a New Agenda For Architecture (1996), the author penned a chapter on the significance of the sublime and its contribution to post-modern architecture via the uncanny or disturbing through the theories of Vidler and Eisenman (Nesbit, 1995). Twenty years on, we see its ongoing presence within the contemporary works of artists Kapoor, Ellison and Viola. Eisenmann and Libeskind aside, explicit reference to the Sublime whether through architectural praxis or theory appears to have been trumped by ecological derivatives and associated transactions, as catalyst for new architecture and architectural thinking. For Edmund Burke (1757), the Sublime was seen as a leading, an overpowering of self to a state of intense self-presence, often leading to a state of otherness. To experience the sublime is to experience affect, physiologically overwhelming the mental faculties through intensities of astonishment, terror, obscurity, magnificence, and reverence. Key here is Burke’s articulation of the stages of the sublime encounter, particularly so, its implications for the process of production which architectural theorists appear to have overstepped in their valorisation of the sublime object. This paper seeks to resituate the sublime within the context of architectural production. Through concepts such as material thinking, bodies and making strange, the paper explores a shift in focus toward affective processes traced from Burke’s inquiry. Rather than proposing strategies solely for affect within the work itself, the focus lies upon the designing experience, where blockage and desirous forces are critical partners in the process of production, as revealed through recent studio programs entitled Strange Space.