Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Factors affecting somatic embryogenesis and transformation in modern plant breeding

Somatic embryogenesis and transformation systems are indispensable modern plant breeding components since they provide an alternative platform to develop control strategies against the plethora of pests and diseases affecting many agronomic crops. This review discusses some of the factors affecting somatic embryogenesis and transformation, highlights the advantages and limitations of these systems and explores these systems as breeding tools for the development of crops with improved agronomic traits. The regeneration of non-chimeric transgenic crops through somatic embryogenesis with introduced disease and pest-resistant genes for instance, would be of significant benefit to growers worldwide.

TaNF-YC11, one of the light-upregulated NF-YC members in Triticum aestivum, is co-regulated with photosynthesis-related genes

NF-Y is a heterotrimeric transcription factor complex. Each of the NF-Y subunits (NF-YA, NF-YB and NF-YC) in plants is encoded by multiple genes. Quantitative RT-PCR analysis revealed that five wheat NF-YC members (TaNF-YC5, 8, 9, 11 & 12) were upregulated by light in both the leaf and seedling shoot. Co-expression analysis of Affymetrix wheat genome array datasets revealed that transcript levels of a large number of genes were consistently correlated with those of the TaNF-YC11 and TaNF-YC8 genes in 3-4 separate Affymetrix array datasets. TaNF-YC11-correlated transcripts were significantly enriched with the Gene Ontology term photosynthesis. Sequence analysis in the promoters of TaNF-YC11-correlated genes revealed the presence of putative NF-Y complex binding sites (CCAAT motifs). Quantitative RT-PCR analysis of a subset of potential TaNF-YC11 target genes showed that ten out of the thirteen genes were also light-upregulated in both the leaf and seedling shoot and had significantly correlated expression profiles with TaNF-YC11. The potential target genes for TaNF-YC11 include subunit members from all four thylakoid membrane bound complexes required for the conversion of solar energy into chemical energy and rate limiting enzymes in the Calvin cycle. These data indicate that TaNF-YC11 is potentially involved in regulation of photosynthesis-related genes.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Massively parallel sequencing and analysis of expressed sequence tags in a successful invasive plant

Background Invasive species pose a significant threat to global economies, agriculture and biodiversity. Despite progress towards understanding the ecological factors associated with plant invasions, limited genomic resources have made it difficult to elucidate the evolutionary and genetic factors responsible for invasiveness. This study presents the first expressed sequence tag (EST) collection for Senecio madagascariensis, a globally invasive plant species. Methods We used pyrosequencing of one normalized and two subtractive libraries, derived from one native and one invasive population, to generate an EST collection. ESTs were assembled into contigs, annotated by BLAST comparison with the NCBI non-redundant protein database and assigned gene ontology (GO) terms from the Plant GO Slim ontologies. Key Results Assembly of the 221 746 sequence reads resulted in 12 442 contigs. Over 50 % (6183) of 12 442 contigs showed significant homology to proteins in the NCBI database, representing approx. 4800 independent transcripts. The molecular transducer GO term was significantly over-represented in the native (South African) subtractive library compared with the invasive (Australian) library. Based on NCBI BLAST hits and literature searches, 40 % of the molecular transducer genes identified in the South African subtractive library are likely to be involved in response to biotic stimuli, such as fungal, bacterial and viral pathogens. Conclusions This EST collection is the first representation of the S. madagascariensis transcriptome and provides an important resource for the discovery of candidate genes associated with plant invasiveness. The over-representation of molecular transducer genes associated with defence responses in the native subtractive library provides preliminary support for aspects of the enemy release and evolution of increased competitive ability hypotheses in this successful invasive. This study highlights the contribution of next-generation sequencing to better understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying ecological hypotheses that are important in successful plant invasions.