An extension of the continual reassessment method using decision theory

The primary goal of a phase I trial is to find the maximally tolerated dose (MTD) of a treatment. The MTD is usually defined in terms of a tolerable probability, q*, of toxicity. Our objective is to find the highest dose with toxicity risk that does not exceed q*, a criterion that is often desired in designing phase I trials. This criterion differs from that of finding the dose with toxicity risk closest to q*, that is used in methods such as the continual reassessment method. We use the theory of decision processes to find optimal sequential designs that maximize the expected number of patients within the trial allocated to the highest dose with toxicity not exceeding q*, among the doses under consideration. The proposed method is very general in the sense that criteria other than the one considered here can be optimized and that optimal dose assignment can be defined in terms of patients within or outside the trial. It includes as an important special case the continual reassessment method. Numerical study indicates the strategy compares favourably with other phase I designs.

Bias reduction using stochastic approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.

Solutions for archiving data in long-term studies: A reply to Whitlock et al.

In our recent paper [1], we discussed some potential undesirable consequences of public data archiving (PDA) with specific reference to long-term studies and proposed solutions to manage these issues. We reaffirm our commitment to data sharing and collaboration, both of which have been common and fruitful practices supported for many decades by researchers involved in long-term studies. We acknowledge the potential benefits of PDA (e.g., [2]), but believe that several potential negative consequences for science have been underestimated [1] (see also 3 and 4). The objective of our recent paper [1] was to define practices to simultaneously maximize the benefits and minimize the potential unwanted consequences of PDA.

National media regulations in an age of convergent media: Beyond globalisation, neo-liberalism and internet freedom theories

There is a widely held view that the nation-state has become less central to media and communications policy over the last two decades. As Jan van Cuilenberg and Denis McQuail (2003, p. 181) observed in their overview of trends in communications policy-making, 'the old normative media policies have been challenged and policy-makers are searching for a new communications policy paradigm'. There are characteristically five factors put forward as to why the nation-state has become less central to media in the twenty-first century

Understanding the civic impact of journalism

The importance of journalism to civil society is constantly proclaimed, but empirical evidence on journalism's impact, and how this operates, is surprisingly thin. Indeed, there is confusion even about what is meant by the term “impact”. Meanwhile, the issue of the role of journalism is becoming increasingly urgent as a consequence of the rapid changes engulfing the news media, brought about by technological change and the flow-on effect to the traditional advertising-supported business model. Assessing the impact of journalism has recently been the topic of debate among practitioners and scholars particularly in the United States, where philanthropists have responded to the perceived crisis in investigative journalism by funding not-for-profit newsrooms, with resulting new pressures being placed on journalists and editors to quantify their impact on society. These recent attempts have so far failed to achieve clarity or a satisfactory conclusion, which is not surprising given the complex web of causation within which journalism operates. In this paper, the authors propose a stratified definition of journalistic impact and function. They propose a methodology for studying impact drawing on realistic evaluation—a theory-based approach developed primarily to assess large social programmes occurring in open systems. The authors argue this could allow a conceptual and methodological advance on the question of media impacts, leading to research capable of usefully informing responses at a time of worrying change.

A rare P2X7 variant Arg307Gln with absent pore formation function protects against neuroinflammation in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease of the central nervous system characterized by oligodendrocyte damage, demyelination and neuronal death. Genetic association studies have shown a 2-fold or greater prevalence of the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele in the MS population compared with normal Caucasians. In discovery cohorts of Australasian patients with MS (total 2941 patients and 3008 controls), we examined the associations of 12 functional polymorphisms of P2X7, a microglial/macrophage receptor with proinflammatory effects when activated by extracellular adenosine triphosphate (ATP). In discovery cohorts, rs28360457, coding for Arg307Gln was associated with MS and combined analysis showed a 2-fold lower minor allele frequency compared with controls (1.11% for MS and 2.15% for controls, P = 0.0000071). Replication analysis of four independent European MS case–control cohorts (total 2140 cases and 2634 controls) confirmed this association [odds ratio (OR) = 0.69, P = 0.026]. A meta-analysis of all Australasian and European cohorts indicated that Arg307Gln confers a 1.8-fold protective effect on MS risk (OR = 0.57, P = 0.0000024). Fresh human monocytes heterozygous for Arg307Gln have >85% loss of ‘pore’ function of the P2X7 receptor measured by ATP-induced ethidium uptake. Analysis shows Arg307Gln always occurred with 270His suggesting a single 307Gln–270His haplotype that confers dominant negative effects on P2X7 function and protection against MS. Modeling based on the homologous zP2X4 receptor showed Arg307 is located in a region rich in basic residues located only 12 Å from the ligand binding site. Our data show the protective effect against MS of a rare genetic variant of P2RX7 with heterozygotes showing near absent proinflammatory ‘pore’ function.