Managing process model complexity via abstract syntax modifications

As a result of the growing adoption of Business Process Management (BPM) technology different stakeholders need to understand and agree upon the process models that are used to configure BPM systems. However, BPM users have problems dealing with the complexity of such models. Therefore, the challenge is to improve the comprehension of process models. While a substantial amount of literature is devoted to this topic, there is no overview of the various mechanisms that exist to deal with managing complexity in (large) process models. It is thus hard to obtain comparative insight into the degree of support offered for various complexity reducing mechanisms by state-of-the-art languages and tools. This paper focuses on complexity reduction mechanisms that affect the abstract syntax of a process model, i.e. the structure of a process model. These mechanisms are captured as patterns, so that they can be described in their most general form and in a language- and tool-independent manner. The paper concludes with a comparative overview of the degree of support for these patterns offered by state-of-the-art languages and language implementations.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

The impact of psychosocial factors on adherence to compression therapy to prevent recurrence of venous leg ulcers

Aims To identify self-care activities undertaken and determine relationships between self-efficacy, depression, quality of life, social support and adherence to compression therapy in a sample of patients with chronic venous insufficiency. Background Up to 70% of venous leg ulcers recur after healing. Compression hosiery is a primary strategy to prevent recurrence, however, problems with adherence to this strategy are well documented and an improved understanding of how psychosocial factors influence patients with chronic venous insufficiency will help guide effective preventive strategies. Design Cross-sectional survey and retrospective medical record review. Method All patients previously diagnosed with a venous leg ulcer which healed between 12–36 months prior to the study were invited to participate. Data on health, psychosocial variables and self-care activities were obtained from a self-report survey and data on medical and previous ulcer history were obtained from medical records. Multiple linear regression modelling was used to determine the independent influences of psychosocial factors on adherence to compression therapy. Results In a sample of 122 participants, the most frequently identified self-care activities were application of topical skin treatments, wearing compression hosiery and covering legs to prevent trauma. Compression hosiery was worn for a median of 4 days/week (range 0–7). After adjustment for all variables and potential confounders in a multivariable regression model, wearing compression hosiery was found to be significantly positively associated with participants’ knowledge of the cause of their condition (p=0.002), higher self-efficacy scores (p=0.026) and lower depression scores (p=0.009). Conclusion In this sample, depression, self-efficacy and knowledge were found to be significantly related to adherence to compression therapy. Relevance to clinical practice These findings support the need to screen for and treat depression in this population. In addition, strategies to improve patient knowledge and self-efficacy may positively influence adherence to compression therapy.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Vitamin D intake needed to maintain target serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in participants with low sun exposure and dark skin pigmentation is substantially higher than current recommendations

Cutaneous cholecalciferol synthesis has not been considered in making recommendations for vitamin D intake. Our objective was to model the effects of sun exposure, vitamin D intake, and skin reflectance (pigmentation) on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) in young adults with a wide range of skin reflectance and sun exposure. Four cohorts of participants (n = 72 total) were studied for 7-8 wk in the fall, winter, spring, and summer in Davis, CA [38.5° N, 121.7° W, Elev. 49 ft (15 m)]. Skin reflectance was measured using a spectrophotometer, vitamin D intake using food records, and sun exposure using polysulfone dosimeter badges. A multiple regression model (R^sup 2^ = 0.55; P < 0.0001) was developed and used to predict the serum 25(OH)D concentration for participants with low [median for African ancestry (AA)] and high [median for European ancestry (EA)] skin reflectance and with low [20th percentile, ~20 min/d, ~18% body surface area (BSA) exposed] and high (80th percentile, ~90 min/d, ~35% BSA exposed) sun exposure, assuming an intake of 200 IU/d (5 ug/d). Predicted serum 25(OH)D concentrations for AA individuals with low and high sun exposure in the winter were 24 and 42 nmol/L and in the summer were 40 and 60 nmol/L. Corresponding values for EA individuals were 35 and 60 nmol/L in the winter and in the summer were 58 and 85 nmol/L. To achieve 25(OH)D ≥75 nmol/L, we estimate that EA individuals with high sun exposure need 1300 IU/d vitamin D intake in the winter and AA individuals with low sun exposure need 2100-3100 IU/d year-round.

An event-based traffic flow model for traffic control at railway junctions

This paper introduces an event-based traffic model for railway systems adopting fixed-block signalling schemes. In this model, the events of trains' arrival at and departure from signalling blocks constitute the states of the traffic flow. A state transition is equivalent to the progress of the trains by one signalling block and it is realised by referring to past and present states, as well as a number of pre-calculated look-up tables of run-times in the signalling block under various signalling conditions. Simulation results are compared with those from a time-based multi-train simulator to study the improvement of processing time and accuracy.

Decoupled image-based visual servoing for cameras obeying the unified projection model

This paper proposes a generic decoupled imagebased control scheme for cameras obeying the unified projection model. The scheme is based on the spherical projection model. Invariants to rotational motion are computed from this projection and used to control the translational degrees of freedom. Importantly we form invariants which decrease the sensitivity of the interaction matrix to object depth variation. Finally, the proposed results are validated with experiments using a classical perspective camera as well as a fisheye camera mounted on a 6-DOF robotic platform.

Managing process model collections with AProMoRe

As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to collect numerous business process models. Such models may be linked with each other or mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. Moreover, they may be represented at different abstraction levels depending on the target audience and modeling purpose, and may be available in multiple languages (e.g. due to company mergers). Thus, it is common that organizations struggle with keeping track of their process models. This demonstration introduces AProMoRe (Advanced Process Model Repository) which aims to facilitate the management of (large) process model collections.

Perfusion model system to generate engineered grafts with controlled cellular distributions

Engineered tissue grafts, which mimic the spatial variations of cell density and extracellular matrix present in native tissues, could facilitate more efficient tissue regeneration and integration. We previously demonstrated that cells could be uniformly seeded throughout a 3D scaffold having a random pore architecture using a perfusion bioreactor2. In this work, we aimed to generate 3D constructs with defined cell distributions based on rapid prototyped scaffolds manufactured with a controlled gradient in porosity. Computational models were developed to assess the influence of fluid flow, associated with pore architecture and perfusion regime, on the resulting cell distribution.

APROMORE : an advanced process model repository

Business process models are becoming available in large numbers due to their popular use in many industrial applications such as enterprise and quality engineering projects. On the one hand, this raises a challenge as to their proper management: How can it be ensured that the proper process model is always available to the interested stakeholder? On the other hand, the richness of a large set of process models also offers opportunities, for example with respect to the re-use of existing model parts for new models. This paper describes the functionalities and architecture of an advanced process model repository, named APROMORE. This tool brings together a rich set of features for the analysis, management and usage of large sets of process models, drawing from state-of-the art research in the field of process modeling. A prototype of the platform is presented in this paper, demonstrating its feasibility, as well as an outlook on the further development of APROMORE.

Interest from Tertiary Educated Persons in Fostering Children with Higher Care needs under a Professional (Paid) Model Compared with General Foster Care

The number of Australian children requiring foster care due to abuse and neglect is increasing at a faster rate than suitable carers can be recruited. Currently increased numbers of foster children are presenting with higher care needs. Evidence suggests carers with a higher education could contribute to placement stability and ultimately provide more positive outcomes for this group of children. This paper explores the level of interest by tertiary educated persons toward a model of fostering for children with higher needs. Using a descriptive survey methodology, a convenience sample of 644 university undergraduate and postgraduate students within faculties of health sciences, and education, arts and social sciences was employed. Psychology students in the 17-26 year old age group showed greatest interest in a professional foster care model and this was statistically significant (p=0.002 955 CI .000-.010) when compared to other health professionals and other age groups. Education students held the highest interest in general fostering although not statistically significant. When these survey results were extrapolated to the total number of health professionals in Australia there could be 8,385 potential recruits for a model professional foster care. Focused campaigns are required to source professional as recruits to fostering with the benefit of servicing the placement needs of higher care needs children and contributing to general foster care resources.

Identification of factors contributing to recurrence of venous leg ulcers

Background and Significance Venous leg ulcers are a significant cause of chronic ill-health for 1–3% of those aged over 60 years, increasing in incidence with age. The condition is difficult and costly to heal, consuming 1–2.5% of total health budgets in developed countries and up to 50% of community nursing time. Unfortunately after healing, there is a recurrence rate of 60 to 70%, frequently within the first 12 months after heaing. Although some risk factors associated with higher recurrence rates have been identified (e.g. prolonged ulcer duration, deep vein thrombosis), in general there is limited evidence on treatments to effectively prevent recurrence. Patients are generally advised to undertake activities which aim to improve the impaired venous return (e.g. compression therapy, leg elevation, exercise). However, only compression therapy has some evidence to support its effectiveness in prevention and problems with adherence to this strategy are well documented. Aim The aim of this research was to identify factors associated with recurrence by determining relationships between recurrence and demographic factors, health, physical activity, psychosocial factors and self-care activities to prevent recurrence. Methods Two studies were undertaken: a retrospective study of participants diagnosed with a venous leg ulcer which healed 12 to 36 months prior to the study (n=122); and a prospective longitudinal study of participants recruited as their ulcer healed and data collected for 12 months following healing (n=80). Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history and ulcer history and treatments; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, psychosocial measures, ulcer history, compression and other self-care activities. Follow-up data for the prospective study were collected every three months for 12 months after healing. For the retrospective study, a logistic regression model determined the independent influences of variables on recurrence. For the prospective study, median time to recurrence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and a Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to adjust for potential confounders and determine effects of preventive strategies and psychosocial factors on recurrence. Results In total, 68% of participants in the retrospective study and 44% of participants in the prospective study suffered a recurrence. After mutual adjustment for all variables in multivariable regression models, leg elevation, compression therapy, self efficacy and physical activity were found to be consistently related to recurrence in both studies. In the retrospective study, leg elevation, wearing Class 2 or 3 compression hosiery, the level of physical activity, cardiac disease and self efficacy scores remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with recurrence. The model was significant (p <0.001); with a R2 equivalent of 0.62. Examination of relationships between psychosocial factors and adherence to wearing compression hosiery found wearing compression hosiery was significantly positively associated with participants’ knowledge of the cause of their condition (p=0.002), higher self-efficacy scores (p=0.026) and lower depression scores (p=0.009). Analysis of data from the prospective study found there were 35 recurrences (44%) in the 12 months following healing and median time to recurrence was 27 weeks. After adjustment for potential confounders, a Cox proportional hazards regression model found that at least an hour/day of leg elevation, six or more days/week in Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, higher social support scale scores and higher General Self-Efficacy scores remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with a lower risk of recurrence, while male gender and a history of DVT remained significant risk factors for recurrence. Overall the model was significant (p <0.001); with an R2 equivalent 0.72. Conclusions The high rates of recurrence found in the studies highlight the urgent need for further information in this area to support development of effective strategies for prevention. Overall, results indicate leg elevation, physical activity, compression hosiery and strategies to improve self-efficacy are likely to prevent recurrence. In addition, optimal management of depression and strategies to improve patient knowledge and self-efficacy may positively influence adherence to compression therapy. This research provides important information for development of strategies to prevent recurrence of venous leg ulcers, with the potential to improve health and decrease health care costs in this population.

Assessing the leanness in product design : a model for planned design reuse

Shrinking product lifecycles, tough international competition, swiftly changing technologies, ever increasing customer quality expectation and demanding high variety options are some of the forces that drive next generation of development processes. To overcome these challenges, design cost and development time of product has to be reduced as well as quality to be improved. Design reuse is considered one of the lean strategies to win the race in this competitive environment. design reuse can reduce the product development time, product development cost as well as number of defects which will ultimately influence the product performance in cost, time and quality. However, it has been found that no or little work has been carried out for quantifying the effectiveness of design reuse in product development performance such as design cost, development time and quality. Therefore, in this study we propose a systematic design reuse based product design framework and developed a design leanness index (DLI) as a measure of effectiveness of design reuse. The DLI is a representative measure of reuse effectiveness in cost, development time and quality. Through this index, a clear relationship between reuse measure and product development performance metrics has been established. Finally, a cost based model has been developed to maximise the design leanness index for a product within the given set of constraints achieving leanness in design process.

Planning and implementing trajectories for autonomous underwater vehicles to track evolving ocean processes based on predictions from a regional ocean model

Path planning and trajectory design for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) is of great importance to the oceanographic research community because automated data collection is becoming more prevalent. Intelligent planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to high-valued locations to perform data collection. In this paper, we present algorithms that determine paths for AUVs to track evolving features of interest in the ocean by considering the output of predictive ocean models. While traversing the computed path, the vehicle provides near-real-time, in situ measurements back to the model, with the intent to increase the skill of future predictions in the local region. The results presented here extend prelim- inary developments of the path planning portion of an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. This extension is the incorporation of multiple vehicles to track the centroid and the boundary of the extent of a feature of interest. Similar algorithms to those presented here are under development to consider additional locations for multiple types of features. The primary focus here is on algorithm development utilizing model predictions to assist in solving the motion planning problem of steering an AUV to high-valued locations, with respect to the data desired. We discuss the design technique to generate the paths, present simulation results and provide experimental data from field deployments for tracking dynamic features by use of an AUV in the Southern California coastal ocean.