Optimal allocation of water in village irrigation systems of Sri Lanka

This PhD study examines whether water allocation becomes more productive when it is re-allocated from 'low' to 'high' efficient alternative uses in village irrigation systems (VISs) in Sri Lanka. Reservoir-based agriculture is a collective farming economic activity, which inter-sectoral allocation of water is assumed to be inefficient due to market imperfections and weak user rights. Furthermore, the available literature shows that a „head-tail syndrome. is the most common issue for intra-sectoral water management in „irrigation. agriculture. This research analyses the issue of water allocation by using primary data collected from two surveys of 460 rice farmers and 325 fish farming groups in two administrative districts in Sri Lanka. Technical efficiency estimates are undertaken for both rice farming and culture-based fisheries (CBF) production. The equi-marginal principle is applied for inter and intra-sectoral allocation of water. Welfare benefits of water re-allocation are measured through consumer surplus estimation. Based on these analyses, the overall findings of the thesis can be summarised as follows. The estimated mean technical efficiency (MTE) for rice farming is 73%. For CBF production, the estimated MTE is 33%. The technical efficiency distribution is skewed to the left for rice farming, while it skewed to the right for CBF production. The results show that technical efficiency of rice farming can be improved by formalising transferability of land ownership and, therefore, water user rights by enhancing the institutional capacity of Farmer Organisations (FOs). Other effective tools for improving technical efficiency of CBF production are strengthening group stability of CBF farmers, improving the accessibility of official consultation, and attracting independent investments. Inter-sectoral optimal allocation shows that the estimated inefficient volume of water in rice farming, which can be re-allocated for CBF production, is 32%. With the application of successive policy instruments (e.g., a community transferable quota system and promoting CBF activities), there is potential for a threefold increase in marginal value product (MVP) of total reservoir water in VISs. The existing intra-sectoral inefficient volume of water use in tail-end fields and head-end fields can potentially be removed by reducing water use by 10% and 23% respectively and re-allocating this to middle fields. This re-allocation may enable a twofold increase in MVP of water used in rice farming without reducing the existing rice output, but will require developing irrigation practices to facilitate this re-allocation. Finally, the total productivity of reservoir water can be increased by responsible village level institutions and primary level stakeholders (i.e., co-management) sharing responsibility of water management, while allowing market forces to guide the efficient re-allocation decisions. This PhD has demonstrated that instead of farmers allocating water between uses haphazardly, they can now base their decisions on efficient water use with a view to increasing water productivity. Such an approach, no doubt will enhance farmer incomes and community welfare.

Development of novel vaccine strategies to prevent genital tract chlamydial infections

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most prevalent bacterial sexually transmitted infection in the developed world and the leading cause of preventable blindness worldwide. As reported by the World Health Organization in 2001, there are approximately 92 million new infections detected annually, costing health systems billions of dollars to treat not only the acute infection, but also to treat infection-associated sequelae. The majority of genital infections are asymptomatic, with 50-70% going undetected. Genital tract infections can be easily treated with antibiotics when detected. Lack of treatment can lead to the development of pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancies and tubal factor infertility in women and epididymitis and prostatitis in men. With infection rates on the continual rise and the large number of infections going undetected, there is a need to develop an efficacious vaccine which prevents not only infection, but also the development of infection-associated pathology. Before a vaccine can be developed and administered, the pathogenesis of chlamydial infections needs to be fully understood. This includes the kinetics of ascending infection and the effects of inoculating dose on ascension and development of pathology. The first aim in this study was to examine these factors in a murine model. Female BALB/c mice were infected intravaginally with varying doses of C. muridarum, the mouse variant of human C. trachomatis, and the ascension of infection along the reproductive tract and the time-course of infection-associated pathology development, including inflammatory cell infiltration, pyosalpinx and hydrosalpinx, were determined. It was found that while the inoculating dose did affect the rate and degree of infection, it did not affect any of the pathological parameters examined. This highlighted that the sexual transmission dose may have minimal effect on the development of reproductive sequelae. The results of the first section enabled further studies presented here to use an optimal inoculating dose that would ascend the reproductive tract and cause pathology development, so that vaccine efficacy could be determined. There has been a large amount of research into the development of an efficacious vaccine against genital tract chlamydial infections, with little success. However, there have been no studies examining the effects of the timing of vaccination, including the effects of vaccination during an active genital infection, or after clearance of a previous infection. These are important factors that need to be examined, as it is not yet known whether immunization will enhance not only the individual's immune response, but also pathology development. It is also unknown whether any enhancement of the immune responses will cause the Chlamydia to enter a dormant, persistent state, and possibly further enhance any pathology development. The second section of this study aimed to determine if vaccination during an active genital tract infection, or after clearance of a primary infection, enhanced the murine immune responses and whether any enhanced or reduced pathology occurred. Naïve, actively infected, or previously infected animals were immunized intranasally or transcutaneously with the adjuvants cholera toxin and CpG-ODN in combination with either the major outer membrane protein (MOMP) of C. muridarum, or MOMP and ribonucleotide reductase small chain protein (NrdB) of C. muridarum. It was found that the systemic immune responses in actively or previously infected mice were altered in comparison to animals immunized naïve with the same combinations, however mucosal antibodies were not enhanced. It was also found that there was no difference in pathology development between any of the groups. This suggests that immunization of individuals who may have an asymptomatic infection, or may have been previously exposed to a genital infection, may not benefit from vaccination in terms of enhanced immune responses against re-exposure. The final section of this study aimed to determine if the vaccination regimes mentioned above caused in vivo persistence of C. muridarum in the upper reproductive tracts of mice. As there has been no characterization of C. muridarum persistence in vitro, either ultrastructurally or via transcriptome analysis, this was the first aim of this section. Once it had been shown that C. muridarum could be induced into a persistent state, the gene transcriptional profiles of the selected persistent marker genes were used to determine if persistent infections were indeed present in the upper reproductive tracts of the mice. We found that intranasal immunization during an active infection induced persistent infections in the oviducts, but not the uterine horns, and that intranasal immunization after clearance of infection, caused persistent infections in both the uterine horns and the oviducts of the mice. This is a significant finding, not only because it is the first time that C. muridarum persistence has been characterized in vitro, but also due to the fact that there is minimal characterization of in vivo persistence of any chlamydial species. It is possible that the induction of persistent infections in the reproductive tract might enhance the development of pathology and thereby enhance the risk of infertility, factors that need to be prevented by vaccination, not enhanced. Overall, this study has shown that the inoculating dose does not affect pathology development in the female reproductive tract of infected mice, but does alter the degree and rate of ascending infection. It has also been shown that intranasal immunization during an active genital infection, or after clearance of one, induces persistent infections in the uterine horns and oviducts of mice. This suggests that potential vaccine candidates will need to have these factors closely examined before progressing to clinical trials. This is significant, because if the same situation occurs in humans, a vaccine administered to an asymptomatic, or previously exposed individual may not afford any extra protection and may in fact enhance the risk of development of infection-associated sequelae. This suggests that a vaccine may serve the community better if administered before the commencement of sexual activity.

Setting up a platform for plant-based influenza virus vaccine production in South Africa

Background During a global influenza pandemic, the vaccine requirements of developing countries can surpass their supply capabilities, if these exist at all, compelling them to rely on developed countries for stocks that may not be available in time. There is thus a need for developing countries in general to produce their own pandemic and possibly seasonal influenza vaccines. Here we describe the development of a plant-based platform for producing influenza vaccines locally, in South Africa. Plant-produced influenza vaccine candidates are quicker to develop and potentially cheaper than egg-produced influenza vaccines, and their production can be rapidly upscaled. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of producing a vaccine to the highly pathogenic avian influenza A subtype H5N1 virus, the most generally virulent influenza virus identified to date. Two variants of the haemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein gene were synthesised for optimum expression in plants: these were the full-length HA gene (H5) and a truncated form lacking the transmembrane domain (H5tr). The genes were cloned into a panel of Agrobacterium tumefaciens binary plant expression vectors in order to test HA accumulation in different cell compartments. The constructs were transiently expressed in tobacco by means of agroinfiltration. Stable transgenic tobacco plants were also generated to provide seed for stable storage of the material as a pre-pandemic strategy. Results For both transient and transgenic expression systems the highest accumulation of full-length H5 protein occurred in the apoplastic spaces, while the highest accumulation of H5tr was in the endoplasmic reticulum. The H5 proteins were produced at relatively high concentrations in both systems. Following partial purification, haemagglutination and haemagglutination inhibition tests indicated that the conformation of the plant-produced HA variants was correct and the proteins were functional. The immunisation of chickens and mice with the candidate vaccines elicited HA-specific antibody responses. Conclusions We managed, after synthesis of two versions of a single gene, to produce by transient and transgenic expression in plants, two variants of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus HA protein which could have vaccine potential. This is a proof of principle of the potential of plant-produced influenza vaccines as a feasible pandemic response strategy for South Africa and other developing countries.

A new technique for optimal allocation and sizing of capacitors and setting of LTC

An iterative based strategy is proposed for finding the optimal rating and location of fixed and switched capacitors in distribution networks. The substation Load Tap Changer tap is also set during this procedure. A Modified Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization is employed in the proposed strategy. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost and the capacitors investment cost. The line loss is calculated using estimation of the load duration curve to multiple levels. The constraints are the bus voltage and the feeder current which should be maintained within their standard range. For validation of the proposed method, two case studies are tested. The first case study is the semi-urban 37-bus distribution system which is connected at bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System which is located in the secondary side of a 33/11 kV distribution substation. The second case is a 33 kV distribution network based on the modification of the 18-bus IEEE distribution system. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the accuracy of the proposed strategy.

Comparison of robust criteria for D-optimal design

This study compared the performance of a local and three robust optimality criteria in terms of the standard error for a one-parameter and a two-parameter nonlinear model with uncertainty in the parameter values. The designs were also compared in conditions where there was misspecification in the prior parameter distribution. The impact of different correlation between parameters on the optimal design was examined in the two-parameter model. The designs and standard errors were solved analytically whenever possible and numerically otherwise.

An optimal under-frequency load shedding strategy considering distributed generators and load static characteristics

The well-established under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) is deemed to be the last of effective remedial measures against a severe frequency decline of a power system. With the ever-increasing size of power systems and the extensive penetration of distributed generators (DGs) in power systems, the problem of developing an optimal UFLS strategy is facing some new challenges. Given this background, an optimal UFLS strategy for a distribution system with DGs and load static characteristics taken into consideration is developed. Based on the frequency and the rate of change of frequency, the presented strategy consists of several basic rounds and a special round. In the basic round, the frequency emergency can be alleviated by quickly shedding some loads. In the special round, the frequency security can be maintained, and the operating parameters of the distribution system can be optimized by adjusting the output powers of DGs and some loads. The modified IEEE 37-node test feeder is employed to demonstrate the essential features of the developed optimal UFLS strategy in the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment.

Coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model for multi-area ATC with risk control

In the decision-making of multi-area ATC (Available Transfer Capacity) in electricity market environment, the existing resources of transmission network should be optimally dispatched and coordinately employed on the premise that the secure system operation is maintained and risk associated is controllable. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ATC probability density distribution of specified areas under the influence of several uncertainty factors, based on which, a coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model with the maximal risk benefit as its objective is developed for multi-area ATC. The NSGA-II is applied to calculate the ATC of each area, which considers the risk cost caused by relevant uncertainty factors and the synchronous coordination among areas. The essential characteristics of the developed model and the employed algorithm are illustrated by the example of IEEE 118-bus test system. Simulative result shows that, the risk of multi-area ATC decision-making is influenced by the uncertainties in power system operation and the relative importance degrees of different areas.

Numerical solution of an optimal control model of dendritic cell treatment of a growing tumour

A new optimal control model of the interactions between a growing tumour and the host immune system along with an immunotherapy treatment strategy is presented. The model is based on an ordinary differential equation model of interactions between the growing tu- mour and the natural killer, cytotoxic T lymphocyte and dendritic cells of the host immune system, extended through the addition of a control function representing the application of a dendritic cell treat- ment to the system. The numerical solution of this model, obtained from a multi species Runge–Kutta forward-backward sweep scheme, is described. We investigate the effects of varying the maximum al- lowed amount of dendritic cell vaccine administered to the system and find that control of the tumour cell population is best effected via a high initial vaccine level, followed by reduced treatment and finally cessation of treatment. We also found that increasing the strength of the dendritic cell vaccine causes an increase in the number of natural killer cells and lymphocytes, which in turn reduces the growth of the tumour.

The development of an effective vaccine against Chlamydia : utilisation of a non-toxic mucosal adjuvant to generate a protective mucosal response

Chlamydia is responsible for a wide range of diseases with enormous global economic and health burden. As the majority of chlamydial infections are asymptomatic, a vaccine has greatest potential to reduce infection and disease prevalence. Protective immunity against Chlamydia requires the induction of a mucosal immune response, ideally, at the multiple sites in the body where an infection can be established. Mucosal immunity is most effectively stimulated by targeting vaccination to the epithelium, which is best accomplished by direct vaccine application to mucosal surfaces rather than by injection. The efficacy of needle-free vaccines however is reliant on a powerful adjuvant to overcome mucosal tolerance. As very few adjuvants have proven able to elicit mucosal immunity without harmful side effects, there is a need to develop non-toxic adjuvants or safer ways to administered pre-existing toxic adjuvants. In the present study we investigated the novel non-toxic mucosal adjuvant CTA1-DD. The immunogenicity of CTA1-DD was compared to our "gold-standard" mucosal adjuvant combination of cholera toxin (CT) and cytosine-phosphate-guanosine oligodeoxynucleotide (CpG-ODN). We also utilised different needle-free immunisation routes, intranasal (IN), sublingual (SL) and transcutaneous (TC), to stimulate the induction of immunity at multiple mucosal surfaces in the body where Chlamydia are known to infect. Moreover, administering each adjuvant by different routes may also limit the toxicity of the CT/CpG adjuvant, currently restricted from use in humans. Mice were immunised with either adjuvant together with the chlamydial major outer membrane protein (MOMP) to evaluate vaccine safety and quantify the induction of antigen-specific mucosal immune responses. The level of protection against infection and disease was also assessed in vaccinated animals following a live genital or respiratory tract infectious challenge. The non-toxic CTA1-DD was found to be safe and immunogenic when delivered via the IN route in mice, inducing a comparable mucosal response and level of protective immunity against chlamydial challenge to its toxic CT/CpG counterpart administered by the same route. The utilisation of different routes of immunisation strongly influenced the distribution of antigen-specific responses to distant mucosal surfaces and also abrogated the toxicity of CT/CpG. The CT/CpG-adjuvanted vaccine was safe when administered by the SL and TC routes and conferred partial immunity against infection and pathology in both challenge models. This protection was attributed to the induction of antigen-specific pro-inflammatory cellular responses in the lymph nodes regional to the site of infection and rather than in the spleen. Development of non-toxic adjuvants and effective ways to reduce the side effects of toxic adjuvants has profound implications for vaccine development, particularly against mucosal pathogens like Chlamydia. Interestingly, we also identified two contrasting vaccines in both infection models capable of preventing infection or pathology exclusively. This indicated that the development of pathology following an infection of vaccinated animals was independent of bacterial load and was instead the result of immunopathology, potentially driven by the adaptive immune response generated following immunisation. While both vaccines expressed high levels of interleukin (IL)-17 cytokines, the pathology protected group displayed significantly reduced expression of corresponding IL-17 receptors and hence an inhibition of signalling. This indicated that the balance of IL-17-mediated responses defines the degree of protection against infection and tissue damage generated following vaccination. This study has enabled us to better understand the immune basis of pathology and protection, necessary to design more effective vaccines.

A statistical strategy to select optimal structural health monitoring data in operational modal analysis

Operational modal analysis (OMA) is prevalent in modal identifi cation of civil structures. It asks for response measurements of the underlying structure under ambient loads. A valid OMA method requires the excitation be white noise in time and space. Although there are numerous applications of OMA in the literature, few have investigated the statistical distribution of a measurement and the infl uence of such randomness to modal identifi cation. This research has attempted modifi ed kurtosis to evaluate the statistical distribution of raw measurement data. In addition, a windowing strategy employing this index has been proposed to select quality datasets. In order to demonstrate how the data selection strategy works, the ambient vibration measurements of a laboratory bridge model and a real cable-stayed bridge have been respectively considered. The analysis incorporated with frequency domain decomposition (FDD) as the target OMA approach for modal identifi cation. The modal identifi cation results using the data segments with different randomness have been compared. The discrepancy in FDD spectra of the results indicates that, in order to fulfi l the assumption of an OMA method, special care shall be taken in processing a long vibration measurement data. The proposed data selection strategy is easy-to-apply and verifi ed effective in modal analysis.

Does a 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine prevent respiratory exacerbations in children with recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis, chronic suppurative lung disease and bronchiectasis : protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis (PBB), chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD) and bronchiectasis are characterised by a chronic wet cough and are important causes of childhood respiratory morbidity globally. Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae are the most commonly associated pathogens. As respiratory exacerbations impair quality of life and may be associated with disease progression, we will determine if the novel 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) reduces exacerbations in these children. Methods A multi-centre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised controlled trial in tertiary paediatric centres from three Australian cities is planned. Two hundred six children aged 18 months to 14 years with recurrent PBB, CSLD or bronchiectasis will be randomised to receive either two doses of PHiD-CV or control meningococcal (ACYW(135)) conjugate vaccine 2 months apart and followed for 12 months after the second vaccine dose. Randomisation will be stratified by site, age (<6 years and >= 6 years) and aetiology (recurrent PBB or CSLD/bronchiectasis). Clinical histories, respiratory status (including spirometry in children aged >= 6 years), nasopharyngeal and saliva swabs, and serum will be collected at baseline and at 2, 3, 8 and 14 months post-enrolment. Local and systemic reactions will be recorded on daily diaries for 7 and 30 days, respectively, following each vaccine dose and serious adverse events monitored throughout the trial. Fortnightly, parental contact will help record respiratory exacerbations. The primary outcome is the incidence of respiratory exacerbations in the 12 months following the second vaccine dose. Secondary outcomes include: nasopharyngeal carriage of H. influenzae and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; systemic and mucosal immune responses to H. influenzae proteins and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; impact upon lung function in children aged >= 6 years; and vaccine safety. Discussion As H. influenzae is the most common bacterial pathogen associated with these chronic respiratory diseases in children, a novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that also impacts upon H. influenzae and helps prevent respiratory exacerbations would assist clinical management with potential short- and long-term health benefits. Our study will be the first to assess vaccine efficacy targeting H. influenzae in children with recurrent PBB, CSLD and bronchiectasis.

Immunization with a MOMP-based vaccine protects mice against a Pulmonary Chlamydia challenge and identifies a disconnection between infection and pathology

Chlamydia pneumoniae is responsible for up to 20% of community acquired pneumonia and can exacerbate chronic inflammatory diseases. As the majority of infections are either mild or asymptomatic, a vaccine is recognized to have the greatest potential to reduce infection and disease prevalence. Using the C. muridarum mouse model of infection, we immunized animals via the intranasal (IN), sublingual (SL) or transcutaneous (TC) routes, with recombinant chlamydial major outer membrane protein (MOMP) combined with adjuvants CTA1-DD or a combination of cholera toxin/CpG-oligodeoxynucleotide (CT/CpG). Vaccinated animals were challenged IN with C. muridarum and protection against infection and pathology was assessed. SL and TC immunization with MOMP and CT/CpG was the most protective, significantly reducing chlamydial burden in the lungs and preventing weight loss, which was similar to the protection induced by a previous live infection. Unlike a previous infection however, these vaccinations also provided almost complete protection against fibrotic scarring in the lungs. Protection against infection was associated with antigen-specific production of IFNγ, TNFα and IL-17 by splenocytes, however, protection against both infection and pathology required the induction of a similar pro-inflammatory response in the respiratory tract draining lymph nodes. Interestingly, we also identified two contrasting vaccinations capable of preventing infection or pathology individually. Animals IN immunized with MOMP and either adjuvant were protected from infection, but not the pathology. Conversely, animals TC immunized with MOMP and CTA1-DD were protected from pathology, even though the chlamydial burden in this group was equivalent to the unimmunized controls. This suggests that the development of pathology following an IN infection of vaccinated animals was independent of bacterial load and may have been driven instead by the adaptive immune response generated following immunization. This identifies a disconnection between the control of infection and the development of pathology, which may influence the design of future vaccines.

Load profile based determination of distribution feeder configuration by dynamic programming

This paper presents a new method to determine feeder reconfiguration scheme considering variable load profile. The objective function consists of system losses, reliability costs and also switching costs. In order to achieve an optimal solution the proposed method compares these costs dynamically and determines when and how it is reasonable to have a switching operation. The proposed method divides a year into several equal time periods, then using particle swarm optimization (PSO), optimal candidate configurations for each period are obtained. System losses and customer interruption cost of each configuration during each period is also calculated. Then, considering switching cost from a configuration to another one, dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) is used to determine the annual reconfiguration scheme. Several test systems were used to validate the proposed method. The obtained results denote that to have an optimum solution it is necessary to compare operation costs dynamically.

An algebraic approach for determination of DG parameters to support voltage profiles in radial distribution networks

Rapidly increasing electricity demands and capacity shortage of transmission and distribution facilities are the main driving forces for the growth of Distributed Generation (DG) integration in power grids. One of the reasons for choosing a DG is its ability to support voltage in a distribution system. Selection of effective DG characteristics and DG parameters is a significant concern of distribution system planners to obtain maximum potential benefits from the DG unit. This paper addresses the issue of improving the network voltage profile in distribution systems by installing a DG of the most suitable size, at a suitable location. An analytical approach is developed based on algebraic equations for uniformly distributed loads to determine the optimal operation, size and location of the DG in order to achieve required levels of network voltage. The developed method is simple to use for conceptual design and analysis of distribution system expansion with a DG and suitable for a quick estimation of DG parameters (such as optimal operating angle, size and location of a DG system) in a radial network. A practical network is used to verify the proposed technique and test results are presented.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.