A gray-box neural network-based model identification and fault estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamic systems

A novel gray-box neural network model (GBNNM), including multi-layer perception (MLP) neural network (NN) and integrators, is proposed for a model identification and fault estimation (MIFE) scheme. With the GBNNM, both the nonlinearity and dynamics of a class of nonlinear dynamic systems can be approximated. Unlike previous NN-based model identification methods, the GBNNM directly inherits system dynamics and separately models system nonlinearities. This model corresponds well with the object system and is easy to build. The GBNNM is embedded online as a normal model reference to obtain the quantitative residual between the object system output and the GBNNM output. This residual can accurately indicate the fault offset value, so it is suitable for differing fault severities. To further estimate the fault parameters (FPs), an improved extended state observer (ESO) using the same NNs (IESONN) from the GBNNM is proposed to avoid requiring the knowledge of ESO nonlinearity. Then, the proposed MIFE scheme is applied for reaction wheels (RW) in a satellite attitude control system (SACS). The scheme using the GBNNM is compared with other NNs in the same fault scenario, and several partial loss of effect (LOE) faults with different severities are considered to validate the effectiveness of the FP estimation and its superiority.

A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Study on tracheal collapsibility, compliance, and stress by considering nonlinear mechanical property of cartilage

Tracheal cartilage has been widely regarded as a linear elastic material either in experimental studies or in analytic and numerical models. However, it has been recently demonstrated that, like other fiber-oriented biological tissues, tracheal cartilage is a nonlinear material, which displays higher strength in compression than in extension. Considering the nonlinearity requires a more complex theoretical frame work and costs more to simulate. This study aims to quantify the deviation due to the simplified treatment of the tracheal cartilage as a linear material. It also evaluates the improved accuracy gained by considering the nonlinearity. Pig tracheal rings were used to exam the mechanical properties of cartilage and muscular membrane. By taking into account the asymmetric shape of tracheal cartilage, the collapse behavior of complete rings was simulated, and the compliance of airway and stress in the muscular membrane were discussed. The results obtained were compared with those assuming linear mechanical properties. The following results were found: (1) Models based on both types of material properties give a small difference in representing collapse behavior; (2) regarding compliance, the relative difference is big, ranging from 10 to 40% under negative pressure conditions; and (3) the difference in determining stress in the muscular membrane is small too: <5%. In conclusion, treating tracheal cartilage as a linear material will not cause big deviations in representing the collapse behavior, and mechanical stress in the muscular part, but it will induce a big deviation in predicting the compliance, particularly when the transmural pressure is lower than -0.5 kPa. The results obtained in this study may be useful in both understanding the collapse behavior of trachea and in evaluating the error induced by the simplification of treating the tracheal cartilage as a linear elastic material.

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.