Wear it or wear the cost : current seatbelt wearing rates in Queensland

Observational seatbelt wearing studies are a valuable tool for obtaining up-to-date information about rates of use. Given that one quarter of vehicle occupants killed on Queensland roads in recent years were not wearing seatbelts, it is important that authorities are able to identify non-wearers and take steps to increase compliance with seatbelt laws to reduce the severity of crashes and, therefore, the road toll. An observational study of seatbelt use was conducted in metropolitan, regional and rural locations throughout Queensland in May and June, 2010. Trained observers took note of seatbelt use of all occupants of passenger vehicles, noting their gender, approximate age group, seating position, vehicle type, licence type (i.e. visible L or P plates), mobile phone use, and the date, time and location of the observation. Of 19,579 observations, 99.04% (19,391) of occupants were observed wearing seatbelts, as only 0.96% of occupants (188) were not wearing a seatbelt. There were differences in seatbelt wearing rates for a number of study variables, although most were very small. However, seatbelt wearing rates were 3.84% lower for drivers observed using a mobile phone than for those who were not. While compliance with seatbelt laws seems to be very high, it is still concerning that so few non-wearers represent a disproportionately large proportion of road fatalities and serious injuries in Queensland. Road safety authorities must therefore continue to find ways to improve seatbelt use, as small gains in wearing rates will translate into significant fatality reductions.

Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

Time-dependent rates of molecular evolution

For over half a century, it has been known that the rate of morphological evolution appears to vary with the time frame of measurement. Rates of microevolutionary change, measured between successive generations, were found to be far higher than rates of macroevolutionary change inferred from the fossil record. More recently, it has been suggested that rates of molecular evolution are also time dependent, with the estimated rate depending on the timescale of measurement. This followed surprising observations that estimates of mutation rates, obtained in studies of pedigrees and laboratory mutation-accumulation lines, exceeded long-term substitution rates by an order of magnitude or more. Although a range of studies have provided evidence for such a pattern, the hypothesis remains relatively contentious. Furthermore, there is ongoing discussion about the factors that can cause molecular rate estimates to be dependent on time. Here we present an overview of our current understanding of time-dependent rates. We provide a summary of the evidence for time-dependent rates in animals, bacteria and viruses. We review the various biological and methodological factors that can cause rates to be time dependent, including the effects of natural selection, calibration errors, model misspecification and other artefacts. We also describe the challenges in calibrating estimates of molecular rates, particularly on the intermediate timescales that are critical for an accurate characterization of time-dependent rates. This has important consequences for the use of molecular-clock methods to estimate timescales of recent evolutionary events.

Can rodents enhance germination rates in rainforest seeds?

The decline of large coevolved frugivorous species within fragmented habitats can have an effect on ecological processes, for example, seed dispersal and germination. It is therefore necessary for more resilient species to ensure essential processes are maintained within the system. This study investigates the influence of two rodent species, Melomys cervinipes (Fawn-footed Melomys) and Rattus fuscipes (Bush Rat), on the germination process of rainforest fruits. Both species are endemic to north Queensland rainforest and commonly found in fragmented habitats in high densities. We found in 85% of fruit species tested, rodent feeding increased seed germination rate by a factor of 3.5. Our results suggest that rodents can play a significant role in enhancing germination rates of fruits in the tropical rainforest of far north Queensland.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

Unintended pregnancies : reducing rates by improving access to contraception

Unintended pregnancies have significant social, health and financial costs. Importantly, there is surprisingly little information available about the prevalence of unintended pregnancy in Australia. We are currently investigating unintended pregnancy and access to contraception among women aged 18–23 years in rural and urban areas of New South Wales. This is the first step toward understanding how access to effective contraception can be improved and could act as a pilot study for a regular survey of fertility.

Miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth: Large variations in rates within a cohort of Australian women

Objectives We aimed to use simple clinical questions to group women and provide their specific rates of miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth for reference. Further, our purpose was to describe who has experienced particularly low or high rates of each event. Methods Data were collected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, a national prospective cohort. Reproductive histories were obtained from 5806 women aged 31–36 years in 2009, who had self-reported an outcome for one or more pregnancy. Age at first birth, number of live births, smoking status, fertility problems, use of in vitro fertilisation (IVF), education and physical activity were the variables that best separated women into groups for calculating the rates of miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth. Results Women reported 10,247 live births, 2544 miscarriages, 1113 preterm deliveries, and 113 stillbirths. Miscarriage was correlated with stillbirth (r = 0.09, P<0.001). The calculable rate of miscarriage ranged from 11.3 to 86.5 miscarriages per 100 live births. Women who had high rates of miscarriage typically had fewer live births, were more likely to smoke and were more likely to have tried unsuccessfully to conceive for ≥12 months. The highest proportion of live preterm delivery (32.2%) occurred in women who had one live birth, had tried unsuccessfully to conceive for ≥12 months, had used IVF, and had 12 years education or equivalent. Women aged 14–19.99 years at their first birth and reported low physical activity had 38.9 stillbirths per 1000 live births, compared to the lowest rate at 5.5 per 1000 live births. Conclusion Different groups of women experience vastly different rates of each adverse pregnancy event. We have used simple questions and established reference data that will stratify women into low- and high-rate groups, which may be useful in counselling those who have experienced miscarriage, preterm delivery, or stillbirth, plus women with fertility intent.

Suicide rates in Shandong, China, 1991–2010 : rapid decrease in rural rates and steady increase in male–female ratio

Background China has one of the highest suicide rates in the world; however, the recent trends in suicide have not been adequately studied. This study aimed to examine the potential changes in the rates and characteristics in a Chinese population. Methods Data on suicide deaths in 1991–2010 were extracted from the Shandong Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) mortality dataset based on ICD-10 codes. The temporal trend in age-adjusted suicide rates for each subpopulation was tested using log-linear Poisson regression analysis. Results From 1991 to 2010, there was a marked decrease in the overall suicide rate in Shandong, with an average reduction of 8% per year. The decrease trend was stronger in rural than in urban areas and more evident in females than in males. Similar decreases were observed for all age groups. Pesticide ingestion and hanging remained the top two methods for suicide. Limitations There are likely quality concerns in the morality data, such as underreporting and misclassification, as well as low accuracy in determining the underlying causes of deaths. The representativeness of the DSP system may also be problematic due to the rapid changes in economy and demography. Conclusions Completed suicides in Shandong have sharply declined over the past 20 years. Higher rates in females versus males and in rural versus urban areas, which were previously considered to be distinguishing features of suicide in China, are becoming less pronounced.

Going public : do risk and choice explain differences in caesarean birth rates between public and private places of birth in Australia?

Background: Women who birth in private facilities in Australia are more likely to have a caesarean birth than women who birth in public facilities and these differences remain after accounting for sector differences in the demographic and health risk profiles of women. However, the extent to which women’s preferences and/or freedom to choose their mode of birth further account for differences in the likelihood of caesarean birth between the sectors remains untested. Method: Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a self-report survey approximately three months after birth. Seven hundred and fifty-seven women provided cross-sectional retrospective data on where they birthed (public or private facility), mode of birth (vaginal or caesarean) and risk factors, along with their preferences and freedom to choose their mode of birth. A hierarchical logistic regression was conducted to determine the extent to which maternal risk and freedom to choose one’s mode of birth explain sector differences in the likelihood of having a caesarean birth. Findings: While there was no sector difference in women’s preference for mode of birth, women who birthed in private facilities had higher odds of feeling able to choose either a vaginal or caesarean birth, and feeling able to choose only a caesarean birth. Women had higher odds of having caesarean birth if they birthed in private facilities, even after accounting for significant risk factors such as age, body mass index, previous caesarean and use of assisted reproductive technology. However, there was no association between place of birth and odds of having a caesarean birth after also accounting for freedom to choose one’s mode of birth. Conclusions: These findings call into question suggestions that the higher caesarean birth rate in the private sector in Australia is attributable to increased levels of obstetric risk among women birthing in the private sector or maternal preferences alone. Instead, the determinants of sector differences in the likelihood of caesarean births are complex and are linked to differences in the perceived choices for mode of birth between women birthing in the private and public systems.

Can slide positivity rates predict malaria transmission?

Background: Malaria is a significant threat to population health in the border areas of Yunnan Province, China. How to accurately measure malaria transmission is an important issue. This study aimed to examine the role of slide positivity rates (SPR) in malaria transmission in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, China. Methods: Data on annual malaria cases, SPR and socio-economic factors for the period of 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Bureau of Statistics, Mengla, China. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the relationship between socio-ecologic factors and malaria incidence. Results: The results show that SPR was significantly positively associated with the malaria incidence rates. The SPR (beta = 1.244, p = 0.000) alone and combination (SPR, beta = 1.326, p < 0.001) with other predictors can explain about 85% and 95% of variation in malaria transmission, respectively. Every 1% increase in SPR corresponded to an increase of 1.76/100,000 in malaria incidence rates. Conclusion: SPR is a strong predictor of malaria transmission, and can be used to improve the planning and implementation of malaria elimination programmes in Mengla and other similar locations. SPR might also be a useful indicator of malaria early warning systems in China.