Downtime reduction analysis of the Australia Post flat mail optical character reader

Machine downtime, whether planned or unplanned, is intuitively costly to manufacturing organisations, but is often very difficult to quantify. The available literature showed that costing processes are rarely undertaken within manufacturing organisations. Where cost analyses have been undertaken, they generally have only valued a small proportion of the affected costs, leading to an overly conservative estimate. This thesis aimed to develop a cost of downtime model, with particular emphasis on the application of the model to Australia Post’s Flat Mail Optical Character Reader (FMOCR). The costing analysis determined a cost of downtime of $5,700,000 per annum, or an average cost of $138 per operational hour. The second section of this work focused on the use of the cost of downtime to objectively determine areas of opportunity for cost reduction on the FMOCR. This was the first time within Post that maintenance costs were considered along side of downtime for determining machine performance. Because of this, the results of the analysis revealed areas which have historically not been targeted for cost reduction. Further exploratory work was undertaken on the Flats Lift Module (FLM) and Auto Induction Station (AIS) Deceleration Belts through the comparison of the results against two additional FMOCR analysis programs. This research has demonstrated the development of a methodical and quantifiable cost of downtime for the FMOCR. This has been the first time that Post has endeavoured to examine the cost of downtime. It is also one of the very few methodologies for valuing downtime costs that has been proposed in literature. The work undertaken has also demonstrated how the cost of downtime can be incorporated into machine performance analysis with specific application to identifying high costs modules. The outcome of this report has both been the methodology for costing downtime, as well as a list of areas for cost reduction. In doing so, this thesis has outlined the two key deliverables presented at the outset of the research.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Scheduling trains as a blocking parallel-machine job shop scheduling problem

In this paper, the train scheduling problem is modelled as a blocking parallel-machine job shop scheduling (BPMJSS) problem. In the model, trains, single-track sections and multiple-track sections, respectively, are synonymous with jobs, single machines and parallel machines, and an operation is regarded as the movement/traversal of a train across a section. Due to the lack of buffer space, the real-life case should consider blocking or hold-while-wait constraints, which means that a track section cannot release and must hold the train until next section on the routing becomes available. Based on literature review and our analysis, it is very hard to find a feasible complete schedule directly for BPMJSS problems. Firstly, a parallel-machine job-shop-scheduling (PMJSS) problem is solved by an improved shifting bottleneck procedure (SBP) algorithm without considering blocking conditions. Inspired by the proposed SBP algorithm, feasibility satisfaction procedure (FSP) algorithm is developed to solve and analyse the BPMJSS problem, by an alternative graph model that is an extension of the classical disjunctive graph models. The proposed algorithms have been implemented and validated using real-world data from Queensland Rail. Sensitivity analysis has been applied by considering train length, upgrading track sections, increasing train speed and changing bottleneck sections. The outcomes show that the proposed methodology would be a very useful tool for the real-life train scheduling problems

Evaluating the Java Virtual Machine as a Target for Languages Other Than Java

The portability and runtime safety of programs which are executed on the Java Virtual Machine (JVM) makes the JVM an attractive target for compilers of languages other than Java. Unfortunately, the JVM was designed with language Java in mind, and lacks many of the primitives required for a straighforward implementation of other languages. Here, we discuss how the JVM may be used to implement other object-oriented languages. As a practical example of the possibilities, we report on a comprehensive case study. The open source Gardens Point Component Pascal compiler compiles the entire Component Pascal language, a dialect of Oberon-2, to JVM bytecodes. This compiler achieves runtime efficiencies which are comparable to native-code implementations of procedural languages.

Implementing languages other than Java on the Java Virtual Machine

The portability and runtime safety of programs which are executed on the Java Virtual Machine (JVM) makes the JVM an attractive target for compilers of languages other than Java. Unfortunately, the JVM was designed with language Java in mind, and lacks many of the primitives required for a straight forward implementation of other languages. Here, we discuss how the JVM may be used to implement other object oriented languages. As a practical example of the possibilities, we report on a comprehensive case study. The open source Gardens Point Component Pascal compiler compiles the entire Component Pascal language, a dialect of Oberon 2, to JVM bytecodes. This compiler achieves runtime efficiencies which are comparable to native code implementations of procedural languages.

The costs arising from pressure ulcers attributable to malnutrition

Aim To estimate the economic consequences of pressure ulcers attributable to malnutrition. Method Statistical models were developed to predict the number of cases of pressure ulcer, associated bed days lost and the dollar value of these losses in public hospitals in 2002/2003 in Queensland, Australia. The following input parameters were specified and appropriate probability distributions fitted • Number of at risk discharges per annum • Incidence rate for pressure ulcer • Attributable fraction of malnutrition in the development of pressure ulcer • Independent effect of pressure ulcer on length of hospital stay • Opportunity cost of hospital bed day One thousand random re-samples were made and the results expressed as (output) probabilistic distributions. Results The model predicts a mean 16060 (SD 5 671) bed days lost and corresponding mean economic cost of AU$12 968 668 (SD AU$4 924 148) (EUROS 6 925 268 SD 2 629 495; US$ 7 288 391 SD 2 767 371) of pressure ulcer attributable to malnutrition in 2002/2003 in public hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Conclusion The cost of pressure ulcer attributable to malnutrition in bed days and dollar terms are substantial. The model only considers costs of increased length of stay associated with pressure ulcer and not other factors associated with care.

Condition-based prognosis of machine health

Modern machines are complex and often required to operate long hours to achieve production targets. The ability to detect symptoms of failure, hence, forecasting the remaining useful life of the machine is vital to prevent catastrophic failures. This is essential to reducing maintenance cost, operation downtime and safety hazard. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognosis models that attempt to forecast machinery health based on either condition data or reliability data. In practice, failure condition trending data are seldom kept by industries and data that ended with a suspension are sometimes treated as failure data. This paper presents a novel approach of incorporating historical failure data and suspended condition trending data in the prognostic model. The proposed model consists of a FFNN whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of Kaplan-Meier estimator and degradation-based failure PDF estimator. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. The viability of the model was tested using a set of industry vibration data.

Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.

Best basis-based intelligent machine fault diagnosis

The wavelet packet transform decomposes a signal into a set of bases for time–frequency analysis. This decomposition creates an opportunity for implementing distributed data mining where features are extracted from different wavelet packet bases and served as feature vectors for applications. This paper presents a novel approach for integrated machine fault diagnosis based on localised wavelet packet bases of vibration signals. The best basis is firstly determined according to its classification capability. Data mining is then applied to extract features and local decisions are drawn using Bayesian inference. A final conclusion is reached using a weighted average method in data fusion. A case study on rolling element bearing diagnosis shows that this approach can greatly improve the accuracy ofdiagno sis.

A review of rationale for allocating costs and payments in producing and supplying public sector information

Presentation given by Dr John S Cook at the Queensland Spatial Conference 2008, Global Warming: What’s Happening in Paradise?, held at Holiday Inn, Surfers Paradise,Queensland from 17-19 July, 2008 This presentation provides some semblance of an information infrastructure that is aligned generally to problems of governance in complex organisations.

Approaches for calculation of holding costs in the context of greenfield residential development

There are increasing indications that the contribution of holding costs and its impact on housing affordability is very significant. Their importance and perceived high level impact can be gauged from considering the unprecedented level of attention policy makers have given them recently. This may be evidenced by the embedding of specific strategies to address burgeoning holding costs (and particularly those cost savings associated with streamlining regulatory assessment) within statutory instruments such as the Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy, and the South East Queensland Regional Plan. However, several key issues require further investigation. Firstly, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely. In fact, it is not only variable, but in some instances completely ignored. Secondly, some ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs and assessment of their relative contribution. Perhaps this may in part be explained by their nature: such costs are not always immediately apparent. They are not as visible as more tangible cost items associated with greenfield development such as regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others. Holding costs are also more difficult to evaluate since for the most part they must be ultimately assessed over time in an ever-changing environment based on their strong relationship with opportunity cost which is in turn dependant, inter alia, upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates. This paper seeks to provide a more detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs, and in so doing determine the size of their impact specifically on the end user. It extends research in this area clarifying the extent to which holding costs impact housing affordability. Geographical diversity indicated by the considerable variation between various planning instruments and the length of regulatory assessment periods suggests further research should adopt a case study approach in order to test the relevance of theoretical modelling conducted.

Changes in accountancy costs for Tasmanian SMEs implementing computerised accounting systems

There have been powerful incentives for Tasmanian Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) to adopt information technology to enable them to remain competitive and to comply with legislative regulations. This research study was undertaken to establish whether SMEs implementing computerised accounting systems have a subsequent change in their external accountancy fees. The research study employed a quantitative methodology using survey questionnaires. The study found that in less than 3% of cases SMEs reported a decrease in accountancy fees, in almost 45% of cases the organisation actually experienced a slight to substantial fee increase while 52% reported no change in accountancy fees.