The contribution of maize cropping in the Midwest USA to global warming: A regional estimate

Agricultural soils emit about 50% of the global flux of N2O attributable to human influence, mostly in response to nitrogen fertilizer use. Recent evidence that the relationship between N2O fluxes and N-fertilizer additions to cereal maize are non-linear provides an opportunity to estimate regional N2O fluxes based on estimates of N application rates rather than as a simple percentage of N inputs as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We combined a simple empirical model of N2O production with the SOCRATES soil carbon dynamics model to estimate N2O and other sources of Global Warming Potential (GWP) from cereal maize across 19,000 cropland polygons in the North Central Region (NCR) of the US over the period 1964–2005. Results indicate that the loading of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from cereal maize production in the NCR was 1.7 Gt CO2e, with an average 268 t CO2e produced per tonne of grain. From 1970 until 2005, GHG emissions per unit product declined on average by 2.8 t CO2e ha−1 annum−1, coinciding with a stabilisation in N application rate and consistent increases in grain yield from the mid-1970’s. Nitrous oxide production from N fertilizer inputs represented 59% of these emissions, soil C decline (0–30 cm) represented 11% of total emissions, with the remaining 30% (517 Mt) from the combustion of fuel associated with farm operations. Of the 126 Mt of N fertilizer applied to cereal maize from 1964 to 2005, we estimate that 2.2 Mt N was emitted as N2O when using a non-linear response model, equivalent to 1.75% of the applied N.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Educational stress scale for adolescents : development, validity, and reliability with Chinese students

This article describes the development and initial validation of a new instrument to measure academic stress—the Educational Stress Scale for Adolescents (ESSA). A series of cross-sectional questionnaire surveys were conducted with more than 2,000 Chinese adolescents to examine the psychometric properties. The final 16-item ESSA contains five latent variables: Pressure from study, Workload, Worry about grades, Self-expectation, and Despondency, which together explain 64% of the total item variance. Scale scores showed adequate internal consistency, 2-week test–retest reliability, and satisfactory concurrent validity. A confirmatory factor analysis suggested the proposed factor model fits well in a different sample. For researchers who have a particular interest in academic stress among adolescents, the ESSA promises to be a useful tool.

Personality and player types in Fallout New Vegas

The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between personality and videogame player types. Study participants completed an online survey that gathered information regarding the individual's personality, via the Big Five Inventory, and player types. The study was focused on understanding this relationship in the context of the action role-playing videogame, Fallout New Vegas (FNV). A relationship between personality and player type was found, specifically with respect to the personality traits of openness to experience and conscientiousness.

A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

The Multidimensional Loss Scale : validating a cross cultural instrument for measuring loss in Burmese refugees

The Multidimensional Loss Scale: Initial Development and Psychometric Evaluation The Multidimensional Loss Scale (MLS) represents the first instrument designed specifically to measure loss in refugee populations. Researchers developed initial items of the Multidimensional Loss Scale to assess Experience of Loss Events and Loss Distress in a culturally sensitive manner across multiple domains (social, material, intra-personal and cultural). A sample of 70 recently settled Burmese adult refugees completed a battery of questionnaires, including new scale items. Analyses explored the scale’s factor structure, internal consistency, convergent validity and divergent validity. Principal Axis Factoring supported a five-factor model: Loss of Symbolic Self, Loss of Interdependence, Loss of Home, Interpersonal Loss, and Loss of Intrapersonal Integrity. Chronbach’s Alphas indicated satisfactory internal consistency for Experience of Loss Events (.85) and Loss Distress (.92). Convergent and divergent validity of Loss Distress were supported by moderate correlations with interpersonal grief and trauma symptoms and weak correlations with depression and anxiety. The new scale was well received by people from refugee backgrounds and shows promise for application in future research and practice

Spatial modelling of population health screening : the role of accessibility in predicting expected patient flows

This paper describes a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) approach for understanding spatial patterns of participation in population health screening, in the presence of multiple screening facilities. The models presented have dual focus, namely the prediction of expected patient flows from regions to services and relative rates of participation by region- service combination, with both outputs having meaningful implications for the monitoring of current service uptake and provision. The novelty of this paper lies with the former focus, and an approach for distributing expected participation by region based on proximity to services is proposed. The modelling of relative rates of participation is achieved through the combination of different random effects, as a means of assigning excess participation to different sources. The methodology is applied to participation data collected from a government-funded mammography program in Brisbane, Australia.

The development of a Monte Carlo system to verify radiotherapy treatment dose calculations

Recent advances in the planning and delivery of radiotherapy treatments have resulted in improvements in the accuracy and precision with which therapeutic radiation can be administered. As the complexity of the treatments increases it becomes more difficult to predict the dose distribution in the patient accurately. Monte Carlo methods have the potential to improve the accuracy of the dose calculations and are increasingly being recognised as the “gold standard” for predicting dose deposition in the patient. In this study, software has been developed that enables the transfer of treatment plan information from the treatment planning system to a Monte Carlo dose calculation engine. A database of commissioned linear accelerator models (Elekta Precise and Varian 2100CD at various energies) has been developed using the EGSnrc/BEAMnrc Monte Carlo suite. Planned beam descriptions and CT images can be exported from the treatment planning system using the DICOM framework. The information in these files is combined with an appropriate linear accelerator model to allow the accurate calculation of the radiation field incident on a modelled patient geometry. The Monte Carlo dose calculation results are combined according to the monitor units specified in the exported plan. The result is a 3D dose distribution that could be used to verify treatment planning system calculations. The software, MCDTK (Monte Carlo Dicom ToolKit), has been developed in the Java programming language and produces BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc input files, ready for submission on a high-performance computing cluster. The code has been tested with the Eclipse (Varian Medical Systems), Oncentra MasterPlan (Nucletron B.V.) and Pinnacle3 (Philips Medical Systems) planning systems. In this study the software was validated against measurements in homogenous and heterogeneous phantoms. Monte Carlo models are commissioned through comparison with quality assurance measurements made using a large square field incident on a homogenous volume of water. This study aims to provide a valuable confirmation that Monte Carlo calculations match experimental measurements for complex fields and heterogeneous media.

Personality & video game genre preferences

This research has been conducted to ascertain whether people with certain personality types exhibit preferences for particular game genres. Four hundred and sixty-six participants completed an online survey in which they described their preference for various game genres and provided measures of personality. Personality types were measured using the five-factor model of personality. Significant relationships between personality types and game genres were found. The results are interpreted in the context of the features of particular game genres and possible matches between personality traits and these features.

Extreme temperatures and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, Australia

Objectives To examine the effect of extreme temperatures on emergency department admissions (EDAs) for childhood asthma. Methods An ecological design was used in this study. A Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the effect of temperature on EDAs for asthma among children aged 0–14 years in Brisbane, Australia, during January 2003–December 2009, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 13 324 EDAs for childhood asthma during the study period. Both hot and cold temperatures were associated with increases in EDAs for childhood asthma, and their effects both appeared to be acute. An added effect of heat waves on EDAs for childhood asthma was observed, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Male children and children aged 0–4 years were most vulnerable to heat effects, while children aged 10–14 years were most vulnerable to cold effects. Conclusions Both hot and cold temperatures seemed to affect EDAs for childhood asthma. As climate change continues, children aged 0–4 years are at particular risk for asthma.

Feeding attitudes, practices and traditional dietary beliefs of Chinese mothers with young children in Australia : a mixed methods study

Background and Objectives Obesity and some dietary related diseases are emerging health problems among Chinese immigrants and their children in developed countries. These health problems are closely linked to eating habits, which are established in the early years of life. Young children’s eating habits are likely to persist into later childhood and youth. Family environment and parental feeding practices have a strong effect on young children’s eating habits. Little information is available on the early feeding practices of Chinese mothers in Australia. The aim of this study was to understand the dietary beliefs, feeding attitudes and practices of Chinese mothers with young children who were recent immigrants to Australia. Methods Using a sequential explanatory design, this mixed methods study consisted of two distinct phases. Phase 1 (quantitative): 254 Chinese immigrant mothers of children aged 12 to 59 months completed a cross-sectional survey. The psychometric properties and factor structure of a Chinese version of the Child Feeding Questionnaire (CFQ, by Birch et al. 2001) were assessed and used to measure specific maternal feeding attitudes and controlling feeding practices. Other questions were developed from the literature and used to explore maternal traditional dietary beliefs and feeding practices related to their beliefs, perceptions of picky eating in children and a range of socioeconomic and acculturation factors. Phase 2 (qualitative): 21 mothers took part in a follow-up telephone interview to assist in explaining and interpreting some significant findings obtained in the first phase. Results Chinese mothers held strong traditional dietary beliefs and fed their children according to these beliefs. However, children’s consumption of non-core foods was high. Both traditional Chinese and Australian style foods were consumed by their children. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the original 7-factor model of the CFQ provided an acceptable fit to the data with minor modification. However, an alternative model with eight constructs in which two items related to using food rewards were separated from the original restriction construct, not only provided an acceptable fit to the data, but also improved the conceptual clarity of the constructs. The latter model included 24 items loading onto the following eight constructs: restriction, pressure to eat, monitoring, use of food rewards, perceived responsibility, perception of own weight, perception of child’s weight, and concern about child becoming overweight. The internal consistency of the constructs was acceptable or desirable (Cronbach’s α = .60 - .93). Mothers reported low levels of concern about their child overeating or becoming overweight, but high levels of controlling feeding practices: restriction, monitoring, pressure to eat and use of food rewards. More than one quarter of mothers misinterpreted their child’s weight status (based on mothers’ self-reported data). In addition, mothers’ controlling feeding practices independently predicted half of the variance and explained 16% of the variance in child weight status: pressuring the child to eat was negatively associated with child weight status (β = -0.30, p < .01) and using food rewards was positively associated with child weight status (β = 0.20, p < .05) after adjusting for maternal and child covariates. Monitoring and restriction were not associated with child weight status. Mothers’ perceptions of their child’s weight were positively associated with child weight status (β = 0.33, p < .01). Moreover, mothers reported that they mostly decided what (65%) and how much (80%) food their child ate. Mothers who decided what food their child ate were more likely to monitor (β = -0.17, p < .05) and restrict (β = -0.17, p < .05) their child’s food consumption. Mothers who let their child decide how much food their child ate were less likely to pressure their child to eat (β = -0.38, p < .01) and use food rewards (β = -0.24, p < .01). Mothers’ perceptions of picky eating behaviour were positively associated with their use of pressure (β = 0.21, p < .01) and negatively associated with monitoring (β = -0.16, p < .05) and perceptions of their child’s weight status (β = -0.13, p < .05). Qualitative data showed that pressuring to eat, monitoring and restriction of the child’s food consumption were common practices among these mothers. However, mothers stated that their motivation for monitoring and restricting was to ensure the child’s general health. Mothers’ understandings of picky eating behaviour in their children were consistent with the literature and they reported multiple feeding strategies to deal with it. Conclusion Chinese immigrant mothers demonstrated strong traditional dietary beliefs, a low level of concern for child weight, misperceptions of child weight status, and a high overall level of control in child feeding in this study. The Chinese version of the CFQ, which consists of eight constructs and distinguishes between the constructs using food rewards and restriction, is an appropriate instrument to assess feeding attitudes and controlling feeding practices among Chinese immigrant mothers of young children in Australia. Mothers’ feeding attitudes and practices were associated with children’s weight status and mothers’ perceptions of picky eating behaviour in children after adjusting for a range of socio-demographic maternal and child characteristics. Monitoring and restriction of children’s food consumption according to food selection may be positive feeding practices, whereas pressuring to eat and using food rewards appeared to be negative feeding practices in this study. In addition, the results suggest that these young children have high exposure to energy-dense, nutrient-poor food. There is a need to develop and implement nutrition interventions to improve maternal feeding practices and the dietary quality among children of Chinese immigrant mothers in Australia.

An envirogenomic signature is associated with risk of IBD-related surgery in a population-based Crohn’s Disease cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Crohn's disease (CD) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) caused by a combination of genetic, clinical, and environmental factors. Identification of CD patients at high risk of requiring surgery may assist clinicians to decide on a top-down or step-up treatment approach. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control analysis of a population-based cohort of 503 CD patients. A regression-based data reduction approach was used to systematically analyse 63 genomic, clinical and environmental factors for association with IBD-related surgery as the primary outcome variable. RESULTS: A multi-factor model was identified that yielded the highest predictive accuracy for need for surgery. The factors included in the model were the NOD2 genotype (OR = 1.607, P = 2.3 × 10(-5)), having ever had perianal disease (OR = 2.847, P = 4 × 10(-6)), being post-diagnosis smokers (OR = 6.312, P = 7.4 × 10(-3)), being an ex-smoker at diagnosis (OR = 2.405, P = 1.1 × 10(-3)) and age (OR = 1.012, P = 4.4 × 10(-3)). Diagnostic testing for this multi-factor model produced an area under the curve of 0.681 (P = 1 × 10(-4)) and an odds ratio of 3.169, (95 % CI P = 1 × 10(-4)) which was higher than any factor considered independently. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study require validation in other populations but represent a step forward in the development of more accurate prognostic tests for clinicians to prescribe the most optimal treatment approach for complicated CD patients.

Epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 - 2007 in Shandong province, China [山东省乙型肝炎、肝硬化及肝癌流行趋势分析]

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control measures, so as to provide evidence for policy-making. Methods Based on the routine incidence data of hepatitis B, mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer and demographic data, the incidence rate, mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate were calculated and analyzed with simple linear regression model. Results A total of 437094 cases of hepatitis B were reported during 1990 - 2007 with an average yearly morbidity of 27.32 per 100 000 persons and a decreased trend for the 0-9 years old children. At the same time, the adjusted mortality rate for hepatitis B and liver cirrhosis showed a decreased trend and the combined mortality rate decreased from 17.55 /100 000 in 1990 to 4.01 /100 000 in 2007. The mortality of liver cancer was stable during this time (P = 0. 9998). Conclusion Immunization of hepatitis B vaccine may have lowered the incidence of hepatitis B in the target population and the overall mortality rates of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. Abstract in Chinese 目的 了解山东省1990～2007年乙肝、肝硬化和肝癌的流行状况及变化趋势,初步评价乙肝预防控制措施的效果,为今后防治决策制定提供参考. 方法 根据报告的乙肝发病资料和乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌死亡资料以及历年人口资料,利用发病率、死亡率、年龄别死亡率等指标对上述3种疾病进行流行趋势的分析,并建立简单线性回归模型进行统计分析. 结果 1990～2007年山东省共报告乙肝病例437 094例,年均总发病率为27.32/10万,并呈上升趋势,而0～9岁年龄组的发病率呈显著下降趋势.乙肝和肝硬化调整死亡率下降趋势明显,两者合并死亡率由1990年的17.55/10万下降到2007年的4.01/10万.肝癌调整死亡率基本稳定(P=0.999 8). 结论 做好乙肝疫苗的免疫接种不仅可降低目标人群乙肝的发病,并将最终降低与此相关的肝硬化和肝癌的死亡率.

Epidemiological Trend of Hepatitis B in Shandong Province of China, 1990 - 2007 []

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B from 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to find the high risk population so as to explore the further control strategy. Methods Based on the routine reporting incidence data of hepatitis B and demographic data of Shandong province, the incidence rates and sex - specific, age - specific incidence rates of hepatitis B were calculated and statistically analyzed in the simple linear regression model. Results The total number of hepatitis B was 437 094, the annual average morbidity was 27132 per 100 000 population during 1990 to 2007. The incidence of men (38142 per 100 000) was higher than that for women (15183 per 100 000) 1The annual incidence rate of hepatitis B indicated an increasing trend for the whole population, while a decreased trend for the 0～9 year - old children p resented in the past 18 years. It showed that the average age of onset moved to the older. Conclusion Young adult men are the high-risk groups for the onset of hepatitis B. For the prevention of hepatitis B, the immunization of hepatitis B vaccine should be enhanced for other groups, especially for the high - risk population on the basis of imp roving the immunization coverage rate for newborns.

The inaccuracy of national character stereotypes

Consensual stereotypes of some groups are relatively accurate, whereas others are not. Previous work suggesting that national character stereotypes are inaccurate has been criticized on several grounds. In this article we (a) provide arguments for the validity of assessed national mean trait levels as criteria for evaluating stereotype accuracy and (b) report new data on national character in 26 cultures from descriptions (N= 3323) of the typical male or female adolescent, adult, or old person in each. The average ratings were internally consistent and converged with independent stereotypes of the typical culture member, but were weakly related to objective assessments of personality. We argue that this conclusion is consistent with the broader literature on the inaccuracy of national character stereotypes