311 resultados para Likelihood function


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The aim of this study was to characterise and quantify the fungal fragment propagules derived and released from several fungal species (Penicillium, Aspergillus niger and Cladosporium cladosporioides) using different generation methods and different air velocities over the colonies. Real time fungal spore fragmentation was investigated using an Ultraviolet Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (UVASP) and a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS). The study showed that there were significant differences (p < 0.01) in the fragmentation percentage between different air velocities for the three generation methods, namely the direct, the fan and the fungal spore source strength tester (FSSST) methods. The percentage of fragmentation also proved to be dependant on fungal species. The study found that there was no fragmentation for any of the fungal species at an air velocity ≤ 0.4 m/s for any method of generation. Fluorescent signals, as well as mathematical determination also showed that the fungal fragments were derived from spores. Correlation analysis showed that the number of released fragments measured by the UVAPS under controlled conditions can be predicted on the basis of the number of spores, for Penicillium and Aspergillus niger, but not for Cladosporium cladosporioides. The fluorescence percentage of fragment samples was found to be significantly different to that of non-fragment samples (p < 0.0001) and the fragment sample fluorescence was always less than that of the non-fragment samples. Size distribution and concentration of fungal fragment particles were investigated qualitatively and quantitatively, by both UVAPS and SMPS, and it was found that the UVAPS was more sensitive than the SMPS for measuring small sample concentrations, and the results obtained from the UVAPS and SMAS were not identical for the same samples.

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Speech recognition in car environments has been identified as a valuable means for reducing driver distraction when operating non-critical in-car systems. Likelihood-maximising (LIMA) frameworks optimise speech enhancement algorithms based on recognised state sequences rather than traditional signal-level criteria such as maximising signal-to-noise ratio. Previously presented LIMA frameworks require calibration utterances to generate optimised enhancement parameters which are used for all subsequent utterances. Sub-optimal recognition performance occurs in noise conditions which are significantly different from that present during the calibration session - a serious problem in rapidly changing noise environments. We propose a dialog-based design which allows regular optimisation iterations in order to track the changing noise conditions. Experiments using Mel-filterbank spectral subtraction are performed to determine the optimisation requirements for vehicular environments and show that minimal optimisation assists real-time operation with improved speech recognition accuracy. It is also shown that the proposed design is able to provide improved recognition performance over frameworks incorporating a calibration session.

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PURPOSE: To introduce techniques for deriving a map that relates visual field locations to optic nerve head (ONH) sectors and to use the techniques to derive a map relating Medmont perimetric data to data from the Heidelberg Retinal Tomograph. METHODS: Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated relating each visual field location (Medmont M700) to rim area and volume measures for 10 degrees ONH sectors (HRT III software) for 57 participants: 34 with glaucoma, 18 with suspected glaucoma, and 5 with ocular hypertension. Correlations were constrained to be anatomically plausible with a computational model of the axon growth of retinal ganglion cells (Algorithm GROW). GROW generated a map relating field locations to sectors of the ONH. The sector with the maximum statistically significant (P < 0.05) correlation coefficient within 40 degrees of the angle predicted by GROW for each location was computed. Before correlation, both functional and structural data were normalized by either normative data or the fellow eye in each participant. RESULTS: The model of axon growth produced a 24-2 map that is qualitatively similar to existing maps derived from empiric data. When GROW was used in conjunction with normative data, 31% of field locations exhibited a statistically significant relationship. This significance increased to 67% (z-test, z = 4.84; P < 0.001) when both field and rim area data were normalized with the fellow eye. CONCLUSIONS: A computational model of axon growth and normalizing data by the fellow eye can assist in constructing an anatomically plausible map connecting visual field data and sectoral ONH data.

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Market-based environmental regulation is becoming increasingly common within international and national frameworks. Environmental offset and trading regimes are part of the market-based instrument revolution. This paper proposes that environmental market mechanisms could be used to introduce an ethic of land holder responsibility. In order for market based regimes to attract sufficient levels of stakeholder engagement, participants within such scheme require an incentive to participate and furthermore need to feel a sense of security about investing in such processes. A sense of security is often associated with property based interests. This paper explores the property related issues connected with environmental offset and trading scheme initiatives. Relevant property-related considerations include land tenure considerations, public versus private management of land choices, characteristics and powers associated with property interests, theories defining property and the recognition of legal proprietal interests. The Biodiversity Banking Scheme in New South Wales is then examined as a case study followed by a critique on the role of environmental markets.

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For the last two decades heart disease has been the highest single cause of death for the human population. With an alarming number of patients requiring heart transplant, and donations not able to satisfy the demand, treatment looks to mechanical alternatives. Rotary Ventricular Assist Devices, VADs, are miniature pumps which can be implanted alongside the heart to assist its pumping function. These constant flow devices are smaller, more efficient and promise a longer operational life than more traditional pulsatile VADs. The development of rotary VADs has focused on single pumps assisting the left ventricle only to supply blood for the body. In many patients however, failure of both ventricles demands that an additional pulsatile device be used to support the failing right ventricle. This condition renders them hospital bound while they wait for an unlikely heart donation. Reported attempts to use two rotary pumps to support both ventricles concurrently have warned of inherent haemodynamic instability. Poor balancing of the pumps’ flow rates quickly leads to vascular congestion increasing the risk of oedema and ventricular ‘suckdown’ occluding the inlet to the pump. This thesis introduces a novel Bi-Ventricular Assist Device (BiVAD) configuration where the pump outputs are passively balanced by vascular pressure. The BiVAD consists of two rotary pumps straddling the mechanical passive controller. Fluctuations in vascular pressure induce small deflections within both pumps adjusting their outputs allowing them to maintain arterial pressure. To optimise the passive controller’s interaction with the circulation, the controller’s dynamic response is optimised with a spring, mass, damper arrangement. This two part study presents a comprehensive assessment of the prototype’s ‘viability’ as a support device. Its ‘viability’ was considered based on its sensitivity to pathogenic haemodynamics and the ability of the passive response to maintain healthy circulation. The first part of the study is an experimental investigation where a prototype device was designed and built, and then tested in a pulsatile mock circulation loop. The BiVAD was subjected to a range of haemodynamic imbalances as well as a dynamic analysis to assess the functionality of the mechanical damper. The second part introduces the development of a numerical program to simulate human circulation supported by the passively controlled BiVAD. Both investigations showed that the prototype was able to mimic the native baroreceptor response. Simulating hypertension, poor flow balancing and subsequent ventricular failure during BiVAD support allowed the passive controller’s response to be assessed. Triggered by the resulting pressure imbalance, the controller responded by passively adjusting the VAD outputs in order to maintain healthy arterial pressures. This baroreceptor-like response demonstrated the inherent stability of the auto regulating BiVAD prototype. Simulating pulmonary hypertension in the more observable numerical model, however, revealed a serious issue with the passive response. The subsequent decrease in venous return into the left heart went unnoticed by the passive controller. Meanwhile the coupled nature of the passive response not only decreased RVAD output to reduce pulmonary arterial pressure, but it also increased LVAD output. Consequently, the LVAD increased fluid evacuation from the left ventricle, LV, and so actually accelerated the onset of LV collapse. It was concluded that despite the inherently stable baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller, its lack of sensitivity to venous return made it unviable in its present configuration. The study revealed a number of other important findings. Perhaps the most significant was that the reduced pulse experienced during constant flow support unbalanced the ratio of effective resistances of both vascular circuits. Even during steady rotary support therefore, the resulting ventricle volume imbalance increased the likelihood of suckdown. Additionally, mechanical damping of the passive controller’s response successfully filtered out pressure fluctuations from residual ventricular function. Finally, the importance of recognising inertial contributions to blood flow in the atria and ventricles in a numerical simulation were highlighted. This thesis documents the first attempt to create a fully auto regulated rotary cardiac assist device. Initial results encourage development of an inlet configuration sensitive to low flow such as collapsible inlet cannulae. Combining this with the existing baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller will render a highly stable passively controlled BiVAD configuration. The prototype controller’s passive interaction with the vasculature is a significant step towards a highly stable new generation of artificial heart.

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This research is aimed at addressing problems in the field of asset management relating to risk analysis and decision making based on data from a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system. It is apparent that determining risk likelihood in risk analysis is difficult, especially when historical information is unreliable. This relates to a problem in SCADA data analysis because of nested data. A further problem is in providing beneficial information from a SCADA system to a managerial level information system (e.g. Enterprise Resource Planning/ERP). A Hierarchical Model is developed to address the problems. The model is composed of three different Analyses: Hierarchical Analysis, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, and Interdependence Analysis. The significant contributions from the model include: (a) a new risk analysis model, namely an Interdependence Risk Analysis Model which does not rely on the existence of historical information because it utilises Interdependence Relationships to determine the risk likelihood, (b) improvement of the SCADA data analysis problem by addressing the nested data problem through the Hierarchical Analysis, and (c) presentation of a framework to provide beneficial information from SCADA systems to ERP systems. The case study of a Water Treatment Plant is utilised for model validation.

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There is sparse systematic examination of the potential for growth as well as distress that may occur for some adult survivors of childhood sexual abuse. The presented study explored posttraumatic growth and its relationship with negative posttrauma outcomes within the specific population of survivors of childhood sexual abuse (N = 40). Results showed that 95% of the participants experienced clinically significant post-traumatic stress disorder symptomatology related to their childhood sexual abuse. In conjunction with these high levels of negative symptoms, the population evidenced posttraumatic growth levels that were comparable to other trauma samples. This research has clinical relevance in terms of adding to the knowledge base on sexual abuse and the usefulness of this knowledge in therapeutic interventions and relationships.

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BACKGROUND: Although we know much about the molecular makeup of the sinus node (SN) in small mammals, little is known about it in humans. The aims of the present study were to investigate the expression of ion channels in the human SN and to use the data to predict electrical activity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Quantitative polymerase chain reaction, in situ hybridization, and immunofluorescence were used to analyze 6 human tissue samples. Messenger RNA (mRNA) for 120 ion channels (and some related proteins) was measured in the SN, a novel paranodal area, and the right atrium (RA). The results showed, for example, that in the SN compared with the RA, there was a lower expression of Na(v)1.5, K(v)4.3, K(v)1.5, ERG, K(ir)2.1, K(ir)6.2, RyR2, SERCA2a, Cx40, and Cx43 mRNAs but a higher expression of Ca(v)1.3, Ca(v)3.1, HCN1, and HCN4 mRNAs. The expression pattern of many ion channels in the paranodal area was intermediate between that of the SN and RA; however, compared with the SN and RA, the paranodal area showed greater expression of K(v)4.2, K(ir)6.1, TASK1, SK2, and MiRP2. Expression of ion channel proteins was in agreement with expression of the corresponding mRNAs. The levels of mRNA in the SN, as a percentage of those in the RA, were used to estimate conductances of key ionic currents as a percentage of those in a mathematical model of human atrial action potential. The resulting SN model successfully produced pacemaking. CONCLUSIONS: Ion channels show a complex and heterogeneous pattern of expression in the SN, paranodal area, and RA in humans, and the expression pattern is appropriate to explain pacemaking.

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Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.

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Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

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Digital forensics investigations aim to find evidence that helps confirm or disprove a hypothesis about an alleged computer-based crime. However, the ease with which computer-literate criminals can falsify computer event logs makes the prosecutor's job highly challenging. Given a log which is suspected to have been falsified or tampered with, a prosecutor is obliged to provide a convincing explanation for how the log may have been created. Here we focus on showing how a suspect computer event log can be transformed into a hypothesised actual sequence of events, consistent with independent, trusted sources of event orderings. We present two algorithms which allow the effort involved in falsifying logs to be quantified, as a function of the number of `moves' required to transform the suspect log into the hypothesised one, thus allowing a prosecutor to assess the likelihood of a particular falsification scenario. The first algorithm always produces an optimal solution but, for reasons of efficiency, is suitable for short event logs only. To deal with the massive amount of data typically found in computer event logs, we also present a second heuristic algorithm which is considerably more efficient but may not always generate an optimal outcome.