Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Fuzzy logic power system stabilizer in multimachine stability studies

Power system stabilizers (PSS) work well at the particular network configuration and steady state conditions for which they were designed. Once conditions change, their performance degrades. This can be overcome by an intelligent nonlinear PSS based on fuzzy logic. Such a fuzzy logic power system stabilizer (FLPSS) is developed, using speed and power deviation as inputs, and provides an auxiliary signal for the excitation system of a synchronous motor in a multimachine power system environment. The FLPSS's effect on the system damping is then compared with a conventional power system stabilizer's (CPSS) effect on the system. The results demonstrate an improved system performance with the FLPSS and also that the FLPSS is robust

Service bid comparisons by fuzzy ranking in open railway market timetabling

In an open railway access market, the Infrastructure Provider (IP), upon the receipts of service bids from the Train Service Providers (TSPs), assigns track access rights according to its own business objectives and the merits of the bids; and produces the train service timetable through negotiations. In practice, IP chooses to negotiate with the TSPs one by one in such a sequence that IP optimizes its objectives. The TSP bids are usually very complicated, containing a large number of parameters in different natures. It is a difficult task even for an expert to give a priority sequence for negotiations from the contents of the bids. This study proposes the application of fuzzy ranking method to compare and prioritize the TSP bids in order to produce a negotiation sequence. The results of this study allow investigations on the behaviors of the stakeholders in bid preparation and negotiation, as well as evaluation of service quality in the open railway market.

Fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction with time-varying flow rates

Fuzzy logic has been applied to control traffic at road junctions. A simple controller with one fixed rule-set is inadequate to minimise delays when traffic flow rate is time-varying and likely to span a wide range. To achieve better control, fuzzy rules adapted to the current traffic conditions are used.

Hierarchical fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction

Traffic control at road junctions is one of the major concerns in most metropolitan cities. Controllers of various approaches are available and the required control action is the effective green-time assigned to each traffic stream within a traffic-light cycle. The application of fuzzy logic provides the controller with the capability to handle uncertain natures of the system, such as drivers’ behaviour and random arrivals of vehicles. When turning traffic is allowed at the junction, the number of phases in the traffic-light cycle increases. The additional input variables inevitably complicate the controller and hence slow down the decision-making process, which is critical in this real-time control problem. In this paper, a hierarchical fuzzy logic controller is proposed to tackle this traffic control problem at a 2-way road junction with turning traffic. The two levels of fuzzy logic controllers devise the minimum effective green-time and fine-tune it respectively at each phase of a traffic-light cycle. The complexity of the controller at each level is reduced with smaller rule-set. The performance of this hierarchical controller is examined by comparison with a fixed-time controller under various traffic conditions. Substantial delay reduction has been achieved as a result and the performance and limitation of the controller will be discussed.

A prioritised fuzzy constraint satisfaction approach to model agent negotiation for railway scheduling

With the recent regulatory reforms in a number of countries, railways resources are no longer managed by a single party but are distributed among different stakeholders. To facilitate the operation of train services, a train service provider (SP) has to negotiate with the infrastructure provider (IP) for a train schedule and the associated track access charge. This paper models the SP and IP as software agents and the negotiation as a prioritized fuzzy constraint satisfaction (PFCS) problem. Computer simulations have been conducted to demonstrate the effects on the train schedule when the SP has different optimization criteria. The results show that by assigning different priorities on the fuzzy constraints, agents can represent SPs with different operational objectives.

Hierarchical fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction using genetic algorithms

Traffic control at a road junction by a complex fuzzy logic controller is investigated. The increase in the complexity of junction means more number of input variables must be taken into account, which will increase the number of fuzzy rules in the system. A hierarchical fuzzy logic controller is introduced to reduce the number of rules. Besides, the increase in the complexity of the controller makes formulation of the fuzzy rules difficult. A genetic algorithm based off-line leaning algorithm is employed to generate the fuzzy rules. The learning algorithm uses constant flow-rates as training sets. The system is tested by both constant and time-varying flow-rates. Simulation results show that the proposed controller produces lower average delay than a fixed-time controller does under various traffic conditions.

Semantic oscillations : encoding context and structure in complex valued holographic vectors

In computational linguistics, information retrieval and applied cognition, words and concepts are often represented as vectors in high dimensional spaces computed from a corpus of text. These high dimensional spaces are often referred to as Semantic Spaces. We describe a novel and efficient approach to computing these semantic spaces via the use of complex valued vector representations. We report on the practical implementation of the proposed method and some associated experiments. We also briefly discuss how the proposed system relates to previous theoretical work in Information Retrieval and Quantum Mechanics and how the notions of probability, logic and geometry are integrated within a single Hilbert space representation. In this sense the proposed system has more general application and gives rise to a variety of opportunities for future research.

Multi-objective four-dimensional vehicle motion planning in large dynamic environments

This paper presents Multi-Step A* (MSA*), a search algorithm based on A* for multi-objective 4D vehicle motion planning (three spatial and one time dimension). The research is principally motivated by the need for offline and online motion planning for autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). For UAVs operating in large, dynamic and uncertain 4D environments, the motion plan consists of a sequence of connected linear tracks (or trajectory segments). The track angle and velocity are important parameters that are often restricted by assumptions and grid geometry in conventional motion planners. Many existing planners also fail to incorporate multiple decision criteria and constraints such as wind, fuel, dynamic obstacles and the rules of the air. It is shown that MSA* finds a cost optimal solution using variable length, angle and velocity trajectory segments. These segments are approximated with a grid based cell sequence that provides an inherent tolerance to uncertainty. Computational efficiency is achieved by using variable successor operators to create a multi-resolution, memory efficient lattice sampling structure. Simulation studies on the UAV flight planning problem show that MSA* meets the time constraints of online replanning and finds paths of equivalent cost but in a quarter of the time (on average) of vector neighbourhood based A*.

Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

Hysteresis modeling of Magneto-Rheological (MR) fluid damper by self tuning fuzzy control

Magneto-rheological (MR) fluid damper is a semi-active control device that has recently received more attention by the vibration control community. But inherent nonlinear hysteresis character of magneto-rheological fluid dampers is one of the challenging aspects for utilizing this device to achieve high system performance. So the development of accurate model is necessary to take the advantage their unique characteristics. Research by others [3] has shown that a system of nonlinear differential equations can successfully be used to describe the hysteresis behavior of the MR damper. The focus of this paper is to develop an alternative method for modeling a damper in the form of centre average fuzzy interference system, where back propagation learning rules are used to adjust the weight of network. The inputs for the model are used from the experimental data. The resulting fuzzy interference system is satisfactorily represents the behavior of the MR fluid damper with reduced computational requirements. Use of the neuro-fuzzy model increases the feasibility of real time simulation.

The Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect : mechanisms and extensions

This study investigated the Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect (KFE) that was first described by Craske and Kenny in 1981. It was reported that when, without vision, participants pressed a button that resulted in a probe simultaneously touching the contralateral limb at a displaced location, they perceived an apparent change in limb length. The current study did not fully replicate these earlier findings. Participants did not perceive any reduction in the sagittal separation of the button and probe following repeated exposure to the tactile stimuli that was present on both arms. However, a localised and partial medio-lateral fusion was observed, with the touched positions seeming closer together. In addition, tactile acuity was found to decrease progressively for distal positions of the upper limb and a foreshortening effect was found which may result from a line-of-sight judgment and represent a feature of the reporting method used. A number of years have elapsed since the description of the original KFE. Although frequently cited in the literature, there has been no further investigation into the mechanisms of action. The results of the current study are considered in light of more recent literature concerning intersensory integration. Future research should focus on further clarification for the specific conditions that must be present for a fusion effect to occur. Finally, this thesis will benefit future studies that require participants to report the perceived locations of the unseen limbs.