A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.

Internet-based surveillance systems for monitoring emerging infectious diseases

Emerging infectious diseases present a complex challenge to public health officials and governments; these challenges have been compounded by rapidly shifting patterns of human behaviour and globalisation. The increase in emerging infectious diseases has led to calls for new technologies and approaches for detection, tracking, reporting, and response. Internet-based surveillance systems offer a novel and developing means of monitoring conditions of public health concern, including emerging infectious diseases. We review studies that have exploited internet use and search trends to monitor two such diseases: influenza and dengue. Internet-based surveillance systems have good congruence with traditional surveillance approaches. Additionally, internet-based approaches are logistically and economically appealing. However, they do not have the capacity to replace traditional surveillance systems; they should not be viewed as an alternative, but rather an extension. Future research should focus on using data generated through internet-based surveillance and response systems to bolster the capacity of traditional surveillance systems for emerging infectious diseases.

Web based surveillance systems could improve disease detection and the response to emerging disease events

The Chinese government should be commended for its open, concerted, and rapid response to the recent H7N9 influenza outbreak. However, the first known case was not reported until 48 days after disease onset.1 Although the difficulties in detecting the virus and the lack of suitable diagnostic methods have been the focus of discussion,2 systematic limitations that may have contributed to this delay have hardly been discussed. The detection speed of surveillance systems is limited by the highly structured nature of information flow and hierarchical organisation of these systems. Flu surveillance usually relies on notification to a central authority of laboratory confirmed cases or presentations to sentinel practices for flu-like illness. Each step in this pathway presents a bottleneck at which information and time can be lost; this limitation must be dealt with...

The greatest shadow on Earth

In a total solar eclipse, the Moon completely covers the Sun, casting a shadow several hundred km wide across the face of the Earth. This paper describes observations of the 14 November 2012 total eclipse of the Sun visible from north Queensland, Australia. The edge of the umbra was captured on video during totality, and this video is provided for teaching purposes. A series of simple 'kitchen' experiments are described which demonstrate the 'sunset' effect seen on the horizon during a total solar eclipse and also the curved umbra seen in the sky when the eclipsed Sun is relatively close to the horizon.

Binding of small mono- and oligomeric integrin ligands to membrane-embedded integrins monitored by surface plasmon-enhanced fluorescence spectroscopy

We recently developed a binding assay format by incorporating native transmembrane receptors into artificial phospholipid bilayers on biosensor devices for surface plasmon resonance spectroscopy. By extending the method to surface plasmon-enhanced fluorescence spectroscopy (SPFS), sensitive recording of the association of even very small ligands is enabled. Herewith, we monitored binding of synthetic mono- and oligomeric RGD-based peptides and peptidomimetics to integrins alphavbeta3 and alphavbeta5, after having confirmed correct orientation and functionality of membrane-embedded integrins. We evaluated integrin binding of RGD multimers linked together via aminohexanoic acid (Ahx) spacers and showed that the dimer revealed higher binding activity than the tetramer, followed by the RGD monomers. The peptidomimetic was also found to be highly active with a slightly higher selectivity toward alphavbeta3. The different compounds were also evaluated in in vitro cell adhesion tests for their capacity to interfere with alphavbeta3-mediated cell attachment to vitronectin. We hereby demonstrated that the different RGD monomers were similarly effective; the RGD dimer and tetramer showed comparable IC50 values, which were, however, significantly higher than those of the monomers. Best cell detachment from vitronectin was achieved by the peptidomimetic. The novel SPFS-binding assay platform proves to be a suitable, reliable, and sensitive method to monitor the binding capacity of small ligands to native transmembrane receptors, here demonstrated for integrins.

Depression and belongingness in general and workplace contexts : a cross-lagged longitudinal investigation

Belongingness has been linked to depression. Prior studies have been cross-sectional with few addressing distinct belongingness contexts. This study used structural equation modelling to investigate cross-lagged longitudinal relationships between general belonging, workplace belonging and depressive symptoms in a community sample of 221 working adults measured at two time points three months apart. Measures were: Sense of Belonging Instrument-Psychological (SOBI-P); Psychological Sense of Organizational Membership (PSOM); Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS-21); Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). General belonging was predicted more strongly by depressive symptoms than by baseline general belonging, suggesting that depressive symptoms not only linger but also influence future belongingness cognitions. Neither general nor workplace belonging longitudinally predicted depressive symptoms, however cross-sectional correlations were substantial. The concurrent path between general belongingness and depressive symptoms was strong. Results are consistent with daily process studies suggesting that reduced belongingness precipitates a rapid increase in depressive symptoms which influence longer term belongingness cognitions. Congruent with interpersonal descriptions of depression such as the social-cognitive interpersonal process model, results further suggest that belongingness cognitions are the proximal antecedent of a depressive response. Practitioners should monitor both a general sense of belonging as well as perceived relational value cues in specific contexts.

Maternal feeding self-efficacy and fruit and vegetable intakes in infants. Results from the SAIDI study

Adequate consumption of fruits and vegetables (FV) is a characteristic of a healthy diet but remains a challenge in nutrition interventions. This cross-sectional study explored the multi-directional relationships between maternal feeding self-efficacy, parenting confidence, child feeding behaviour, exposure to new food and FV intake in a cohort of 277 infants. Mothers with healthy infants weighing ≥2500 g and ≥37 weeks gestation were recruited post-natally from 11 South Australian hospitals. Socio-demographic datawere collected at recruitment. At 6 months postnatal, infantswereweighed and measured, andmothers completed a questionnaire exploring their perceptions of child feeding behaviour and child exposure to newfoods. The questionnaire also included the Short Temperament Scale for Infants, Kessler 10 to measure maternal psychological distress and 5 items measuring maternal feeding self-efficacy. The number of occasions and variety of FV (number of subgroups within food groups) consumed by infants were estimated from a 24-hour dietary recall and 2 days food record. Structural equation modellingwas performed using Mplus version 6.11. Median (IQR) variety scores were 2 (1–3) for fruit and 3 (2–5) for vegetable intake. The most popular FV consumed were apple (n = 108, 45.0%) and pumpkin (n = 143, 56.3%). None of the variables studied predicted the variety of child fruit intake. Parenting confidence, exposure to new foods and child feeding behaviourwere indirectly related to child vegetable intake through maternal feeding self-efficacy while total number of children negatively predicted child vegetable variety (p < 0.05). This highlights the need for addressing antecedents of maternal feeding self-efficacy and the family eating environment as key strategies towards development of healthy eating in children.

Relationship between expectation management and client retention in online Cognitive Behavioural Therapy

Background Engaging clients from the outset of psychotherapy is important for therapeutic success. However, there is little research evaluating therapists’ initial attempts to engage clients. This article reports retrospective analysis of data from a trial of online Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) for depression. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to evaluate how therapists manage clients’ expectations at the outset of therapy and its relationship with client retention in the therapeutic intervention. Aims To develop a system to codify expectation management in initial sessions of online CBT and evaluate its relationship with retention. Method Initial qualitative research using conversation analysis identified three different communication practices used by therapists at the start of first sessions: no expectation management, some expectation management, and comprehensive expectation management. These findings were developed into a coding scheme that enabled substantial inter-rater agreement (weighted Kappa = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.52 to 0.94) and was applied to all trial data. Results Adjusting for a range of client variables, primary analysis of data from 147 clients found comprehensive expectation management was associated with clients remaining in therapy for 1.4 sessions longer than those who received no expectation management (95% CI: -0.2 to 3.0). This finding was supported by a sensitivity analysis including an additional 21 clients (1.6 sessions, 95% CI: 0.2 to 3.1). Conclusions Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this study suggests a relationship between expectation management and client retention in online CBT for depression, which has implications for professional practice. A larger prospective study would enable a more precise estimate of retention.

Managing clients’ expectations at the outset of online Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) for depression

Background Engaging clients in psychotherapy by managing their expectations is important for therapeutic success. Initial moments in first sessions of therapy are thought to afford an opportunity to establish a shared understanding of how therapy will proceed. However there is little evidence from analysis of actual sessions of therapy to support this. Objective This study utilised recordings to examine how therapists manage clients’ expectations during the first two sessions of online Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT). Methods Expectation management was investigated through conversation analysis of sessions from 176 client-therapist dyads involved in online CBT. The primary focus of analysis was expectation management during the initial moments of first sessions, with a secondary focus on expectations at subsequent points. Analysis Clients’ expectations for therapy were most commonly managed during the initial moments of first sessions of therapy. At this point, most therapists either outlined the tasks of the first and subsequent sessions (n=36), or the first session only (n=108). On other occasions (n = 32), no attempt was made to manage clients’ expectations by outlining what would happen in therapy. Observations of the interactional consequences of such an absence suggest clients may struggle to engage with the therapeutic process in the absence of appropriate expectation management by therapists. Conclusion Clients may more readily engage from the outset of therapy when provided with an explanation that manages their expectation of what is involved. Therapists can accomplish this by projecting how therapy will proceed, particularly beyond the initial session.

The association between social support and levels of psychological distress in pregnant women in Australia

The purpose of this study was to explore associations between forms of social support and levels of psychological distress during pregnancy. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of 2,743 pregnant women from south-east Queensland, Australia, was conducted utilising data collected between 2007-2011 as part of the Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) project, Griffith University. Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler 6; social support was measured using the following four factors: living with a partner, living with parents or in-laws, self-perceived social network, and area satisfaction. Data were analysed using an ordered logistic regression model controlling for a range of socio-demographic factors. Results: There was an inverse association between self-perceived strength of social networks and levels of psychological distress (OR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.70, 0.85) and between area satisfaction and levels of psychological distress (OR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.87). There was a direct association between living with parents or in-laws and levels of psychological distress (OR = 1.50; 95%CI: 1.16, 1.96). There was no statistically significant association between living with a partner and the level of psychological distress of the pregnant woman after accounting for household income. Conclusion: Living with parents or in-laws is a strong marker for psychological distress. Strategies aiming to build social support networks for women during pregnancy have the potential to provide a significant benefit. Policies promoting stable family relationships and networks through community development could also be effective in promoting the welfare of pregnant women.

Phosphoprotein pathway mapping: Akt/Mammalian target of rapamycin activation is negatively associated with childhood rhabdomyosarcoma survival

Mapping of protein signaling networks within tumors can identify new targets for therapy and provide a means to stratify patients for individualized therapy. Despite advances in combination chemotherapy, the overall survival for childhood rhabdomyosarcoma remains ∼60%. A critical goal is to identify functionally important protein signaling defects associated with treatment failure for the 40% nonresponder cohort. Here, we show, by phosphoproteomic network analysis of microdissected tumor cells, that interlinked components of the Akt/mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway exhibited increased levels of phosphorylation for tumors of patients with short-term survival. Specimens (n = 59) were obtained from the Children's Oncology Group Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS) IV, D9502 and D9803, with 12-year follow-up. High phosphorylation levels were associated with poor overall and poor disease-free survival: Akt Ser473 (overall survival P < 0.001, recurrence-free survival P < 0.0009), 4EBP1 Thr37/46 (overall survival P < 0.0110, recurrence-free survival P < 0.0106), eIF4G Ser1108 (overall survival P < 0.0017, recurrence-free survival P < 0.0072), and p70S6 Thr389 (overall survival P < 0.0085, recurrence-free survival P < 0.0296). Moreover, the findings support an altered interrelationship between the insulin receptor substrate (IRS-1) and Akt/mTOR pathway proteins (P < 0.0027) for tumors from patients with poor survival. The functional significance of this pathway was tested using CCI-779 in a mouse xenograft model. CCI-779 suppressed phosphorylation of mTOR downstream proteins and greatly reduced the growth of two different rhabdomyosarcoma (RD embryonal P = 0.00008; Rh30 alveolar P = 0.0002) cell lines compared with controls. These results suggest that phosphoprotein mapping of the Akt/mTOR pathway should be studied further as a means to select patients to receive mTOR/IRS pathway inhibitors before administration of chemotherapy.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability

Background Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases. Methods Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009–13 using Spearman’s rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems. Results Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases

Personal values and political activism: A cross-national study

Using data from 28 countries in four continents, the present research addresses the question of how basic values may account for political activism. Study 1 (N = 35,116) analyses data from representative samples in 20 countries that responded to the 21-item version of the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ-21) in the European Social Survey. Study 2 (N = 7,773) analyses data from adult samples in six of the same countries (Finland, Germany, Greece, Israel, Poland, and United Kingdom) and eight other countries (Australia, Brazil, Chile, Italy, Slovakia, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States) that completed the full 40-item PVQ. Across both studies, political activism relates positively to self-transcendence and openness to change values, especially to universalism and autonomy of thought, a subtype of self-direction. Political activism relates negatively to conservation values, especially to conformity and personal security. National differences in the strength of the associations between individual values and political activism are linked to level of democratization.

Basic personal values underlie and give coherence to political values: A cross national study in 15 countries

Do the political values of the general public form a coherent system? What might be the source of coherence? We view political values as expressions, in the political domain, of more basic personal values. Basic personal values (e.g., security, achievement, benevolence, hedonism) are organized on a circular continuum that reflects their conflicting and compatible motivations. We theorize that this circular motivational structure also gives coherence to political values. We assess this theorizing with data from 15 countries, using eight core political values (e.g., free enterprise, law and order) and ten basic personal values. We specify the underlying basic values expected to promote or oppose each political value. We offer different hypotheses for the 12 non-communist and three post-communist countries studied, where the political context suggests different meanings of a basic or political value. Correlation and regression analyses support almost all hypotheses. Moreover, basic values account for substantially more variance in political values than age, gender, education, and income. Multidimensional scaling analyses demonstrate graphically how the circular motivational continuum of basic personal values structures relations among core political values. This study strengthens the assumption that individual differences in basic personal values play a critical role in political thought.