Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Design of automatic vision-based inspection system for solder joint segmentation

Purpose: Computer vision has been widely used in the inspection of electronic components. This paper proposes a computer vision system for the automatic detection, localisation, and segmentation of solder joints on Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) under different illumination conditions. Design/methodology/approach: An illumination normalization approach is applied to an image, which can effectively and efficiently eliminate the effect of uneven illumination while keeping the properties of the processed image the same as in the corresponding image under normal lighting conditions. Consequently special lighting and instrumental setup can be reduced in order to detect solder joints. These normalised images are insensitive to illumination variations and are used for the subsequent solder joint detection stages. In the segmentation approach, the PCB image is transformed from an RGB color space to a YIQ color space for the effective detection of solder joints from the background. Findings: The segmentation results show that the proposed approach improves the performance significantly for images under varying illumination conditions. Research limitations/implications: This paper proposes a front-end system for the automatic detection, localisation, and segmentation of solder joint defects. Further research is required to complete the full system including the classification of solder joint defects. Practical implications: The methodology presented in this paper can be an effective method to reduce cost and improve quality in production of PCBs in the manufacturing industry. Originality/value: This research proposes the automatic location, identification and segmentation of solder joints under different illumination conditions.

Automatic solder joint defect classification using the Log-Gabor filter

This paper proposes the validity of a Gabor filter bank for feature extraction of solder joint images on Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs). A distance measure based on the Mahalanobis Cosine metric is also presented for classification of five different types of solder joints. From the experimental results, this methodology achieved high accuracy and a well generalised performance. This can be an effective method to reduce cost and improve quality in the production of PCBs in the manufacturing industry.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Effects of pediatric obesity on joint kinematics and kinetics during 2 walking cadences

Objective: To determine whether differences existed in lower-extremity joint biomechanics during self-selected walking cadence (SW) and fast walking cadence (FW) in overweight- and normal-weight children.---------- Design: Survey.---------- Setting: Institutional gait study center.---------- Participants: Participants (N=20; mean age ± SD, 10.4±1.6y) from referred and volunteer samples were classified based on body mass index percentiles and stratified by age and sex. Exclusion criteria were a history of diabetes, neuromuscular disorder, or recent lower-extremity injury.---------- Main Outcome Measures: Sagittal, frontal, and transverse plane angular displacements (degrees) and peak moments (newton meters) at the hip, knee, and ankle joints.---------- Results: The level of significance was set at P less than .008. Compared with normal-weight children, overweight children had greater absolute peak joint moments at the hip (flexor, extensor, abductor, external rotator), the knee (flexor, extensor, abductor, adductor, internal rotator), and the ankle (plantarflexor, inverter, external/internal rotators). After including body weight as a covariate, overweight children had greater peak ankle dorsiflexor moments than normal-weight children. No kinematic differences existed between groups. Greater peak hip extensor moments and less peak ankle inverter moments occurred during FW than SW. There was greater angular displacement during hip flexion as well as less angular displacement at the hip (extension, abduction), knee (flexion, extension), and ankle (plantarflexion, inversion) during FW than SW.---------- Conclusions: Overweight children experienced increased joint moments, which can have long-term orthopedic implications and suggest a need for more nonweight-bearing activities within exercise prescription. The percent of increase in joint moments from SW to FW was not different for overweight and normal-weight children. These findings can be used in developing an exercise prescription that must involve weight-bearing activity.

The growth-profitability relationship : strategic orientations as moderator

Principal Topic: In this study we investigate how strategic orientation moderates the impact of growth on profitability for a sample of Danish high growth (Gazelle) firms. ---------- Firm growth has been an essential part of both management research and entrepreneurship research for decades (e.g. Penrose 1959, Birch 1987, Storey 1994). From a societal point of view, firm growth has been perceived as economic generator and job creator. In entrepreneurship research, growth has been an important part of the field (Davidsson, Delmar and Wiklund 2006), and many have used growth as a measure of success. In strategic management, growth has been seen as an approach to achieve competitive advantages and a way of becoming increasing profitable (e.g. Russo and Fouts 1997, Cho and Pucic 2005). However, although firm growth used to be perceived as a natural pathway to profitability recently more skepticism has emerged due to both new theoretical development and new empirical insights. Empirically, studies show inconsistent and inconclusive empirical evidence regarding the impact of growth on profitability. Our review reveals that some studies find a substantial positive relationship, some find a weak positive relationship, some find no relationship and further some find a negative relationship. Overall, two dominant yet divergent theoretical positions can be identified. The first position, mainly focusing on the environmental fit, argues that firms are likely to become more profitable if they enter a market quickly and on a larger scale due to first mover advantages and economic of scale. The second position, mainly focusing the internal fit, argues that growth may lead to a range of internal challenges and difficulties, including rapid change in structure, reward systems, decision making, communication and management style. The inconsistent empirical results together with two divergent theoretical positions call for further investigations into the circumstances by which growth generate profitability and into the circumstances by which growth do not generate profitability. In this project, we investigate how strategic orientations influence the impact of growth on profitability by asking the following research question: How is the impact of growth on profitability moderated by strategic orientation? Based on a literature review of how growth impacts profitability in areas such as entrepreneurship, strategic management and strategic entrepreneurship we develop three hypotheses regarding the growth-profitability relationship and strategic orientation as a potential moderator. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: The three hypotheses are tested on data collected in 2008. All firms in Denmark, including all listed and non-listed (VAT-registered) firms who experienced a 100 % growth and had a positive sales or gross profit over a four years period (2004-2007) were surveyed. In total 2,475 fulfilled the requirements. Among those 1,107 firms returned usable questionnaires satisfactory giving us a response rate on 45 %. The financial data together with data on number of employees were obtained from D&B (previously Dun & Bradstreet). The remaining data were obtained through the survey. Hierarchical regression models with ROA (return on assets) as the dependent variable were used to test the hypotheses. In the first model control variables including region, industry, firm age, CEO age, CEO gender, CEO education and number of employees were entered. In the second model, growth measured as growth in employees was entered. Then strategic orientation (differentiation, cost leadership, focus differentiation and focus cost leadership) and then interaction effects of strategic orientation and growth were entered in the model. ---------- Results and Implications: The results show a positive impact of firm growth on profitability and further that this impact is moderated by strategic orientation. Specifically, it was found that growth has a larger impact on profitability when firms do not pursue a focus strategy including both focus differentiation and focus cost leadership. Our preliminary interpretation of the results suggests that the value of growth depends on the circumstances and more specifically 'how much is left to fight for'. It seems like those firms who target towards a narrow segment are less likely to gain value of growth. The remaining market shares to fight for to these firms are not large enough to compensate for the cost of growing. Based on our findings, it therefore seems like growth has a more positive relationship with profitability for those who approach a broad market segment. Furthermore we argue that firms pursuing af Focus strategy will have more specialized assets that decreases the possibilities of further profitable expansion. For firms, CEOs, board of directors etc., the study shows that high growth is not necessarily something worth aiming for. It is a trade-off between the cost of growing and the value of growing. For many firms, there might be better ways of generating profitability in the long run. It depends on the strategic orientation of the firm. For advisors and consultants, the conditional value of growth implies that in-depth knowledge on their clients' situation is necessary before any advice can be given. And finally, for policy makers, it means they have to be careful when initiating new policies to promote firm growth. They need to take into consideration firm strategy and industry conditions.

Joint consumer submission to the review of the code of banking practice

This submission has been prepared on behalf of Australian consumer advocates by Nicola Howell, Faculty of Law, Queensland University of Technology (‘the researcher’), under a consultancy arrangement with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). The researcher has been engaged by ASIC to consult with consumer advocates across Australia in order to prepare a detailed consumer submission to the Review of the Code of Banking Practice and the Review Issues Paper.

Improved joint control using a genetic algorithm for a humanoid robot

This paper describes experiments conducted in order to simultaneously tune 15 joints of a humanoid robot. Two Genetic Algorithm (GA) based tuning methods were developed and compared against a hand-tuned solution. The system was tuned in order to minimise tracking error while at the same time achieve smooth joint motion. Joint smoothness is crucial for the accurate calculation of online ZMP estimation, a prerequisite for a closedloop dynamically stable humanoid walking gait. Results in both simulation and on a real robot are presented, demonstrating the superior smoothness performance of the GA based methods.

Fuzzy associative memory for humanoid robot joint control

Traditional approaches to joint control required accurate modelling of the system dynamic of the plant in question. Fuzzy Associative Memory (FAM) control schemes allow adequate control without a model of the system to be controlled. This paper presents a FAM based joint controller implemented on a humanoid robot. An empirically tuned PI velocity control loop is augmented with this feed forward FAM, with considerable reduction in joint position error achieved online and with minimal additional computational overhead.

Biologically inspired joint control for a humanoid robot

The GuRoo is a 1.2 m tall, 23 degree of freedom humanoid constructed at the University of Queensland for research into humanoid robotics. The key challenge being addressed by the GuRoo project is the development of appropriate learning strategies for control and coordination of the robot's many joints. The development of learning strategies is seen as a way to side-step the inherent intricacy of modeling a multi-DOF biped robot. This paper outlines the approach taken to generate an appropriate control scheme for the joints of the GuRoo. The paper demonstrates the determination of local feedback control parameters using a genetic algorithm. The feedback loop is then augmented by a predictive modulator that learns a form of feed-forward control to overcome the irregular loads experienced at each joint during the gait cycle. The predictive modulator is based on the CMAC architecture. Results from tests on the GuRoo platform show that both systems provide improvements in stability and tracking of joint control.

The ultra-low friction of the articular surface is pH-dependent and is built on a hydrophobic underlay including a hypothesis on joint lubrication mechanism

In this study, the influence of pH on interfacial energy distributed over the phospholipids-bilayer surface model and the effect of hydrophobicity on coefficient of friction (f) were investigated by using microelectrophoresis. An important clinical implication of deficiency in hydrophobicity is the loss of phospholipids that is readily observed in osteoarthritis joints. This paper establishes the influence of pH on interfacial energy upon an increase f, which might be associated with a decrease of hydrophobicity of the articular surface.

A point interpolation method with locally smoothed strain field (PIM-LS2) for mechanics problems using triangular mesh

A point interpolation method with locally smoothed strain field (PIM-LS2) is developed for mechanics problems using a triangular background mesh. In the PIM-LS2, the strain within each sub-cell of a nodal domain is assumed to be the average strain over the adjacent sub-cells of the neighboring element sharing the same field node. We prove theoretically that the energy norm of the smoothed strain field in PIM-LS2 is equivalent to that of the compatible strain field, and then prove that the solution of the PIM- LS2 converges to the exact solution of the original strong form. Furthermore, the softening effects of PIM-LS2 to system and the effects of the number of sub-cells that participated in the smoothing operation on the convergence of PIM-LS2 are investigated. Intensive numerical studies verify the convergence, softening effects and bound properties of the PIM-LS2, and show that the very ‘‘tight’’ lower and upper bound solutions can be obtained using PIM-LS2.

Expression of chondromodulin-1 in the temporomandibular joint condylar cartilage and disc

BACKGROUND: The temporomandibular joint (TMJ) cartilage consists of condylar cartilage and disc and undergoes continuous remodeling throughout post-natal life. To maintain the integrity of the TMJ cartilage, anti-angiogenic factors play an important role during the remodeling process. In this study, we investigated the expression of the anti-angiogenic factor, chondromodulin- 1 (ChM-1), in TMJ cartilage and evaluate its potential role in TMJ remodeling. METHODS: Eight TMJ specimens were collected from six 4-month-old Japanese white rabbits. Safranin-O staining was performed to determine proteoglycan content. ChM-1 expression in TMJ condylar cartilage and disc was determined by immunohistochemistry. Three human perforated disc tissue samples were collected for investigation of ChM-1 and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) distribution in perforated TMJ disc. RESULTS: Safranin-O stained weakly in TMJ compared with tibial articular and epiphyseal cartilage. In TMJ, ChM-1 was expressed in the proliferative and hypertrophic zone of condylar cartilage and chondrocyte-like cells in the disc. No expression of ChM-1 was observed in osteoblasts and subchondral bone. ChM-1 and VEGF were both similarly expressed in perforated disc tissues. CONCLUSIONS: ChM-1 may play a role in the regulation of TMJ remodeling by preventing blood vessel invasion of the cartilage, thereby maintaining condylar cartilage and disc integrity.