Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Are organisations prepared for e-health implementation to respond to pandemic influenza?

E-health can facilitate communication and interactions among stakeholders involved in pandemic responses. Its implementation, nevertheless, represents a disruptive change in the healthcare workplace. Organisational preparedness assessment is an essential requirement prior to e-health implementation; including this step in the planning process can increase the chances of programme success. The objective of this study is to develop an e-health preparedness assessment model for pandemic influenza (EHPM4P). Following the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), 20 contextual interviews were conducted with domain experts from May to September 2010. We examined the importance of all preparedness components within a fivedimensional hierarchical framework that was recently published. We also calculated the relative weight for each component at all levels of the hierarchy. This paper presents the hierarchical model (EHPM4P) that can be used to precisely assess healthcare organisational and providers' preparedness for e-health implementation and potentially maximise e-health benefits in the context of an influenza pandemic. Copyright © 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Structural analysis of the roles of influenza A virus membrane-associated proteins in assembly and morphology

The assembly of influenza A virus at the plasma membrane of infected cells leads to release of enveloped virions that are typically round in tissue culture-adapted strains but filamentous in strains isolated from patients. The viral proteins hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), matrix protein 1 (M1), and M2 ion channel all contribute to virus assembly. When expressed individually or in combination in cells, they can all, under certain conditions, mediate release of membrane-enveloped particles, but their relative roles in virus assembly, release, and morphology remain unclear. To investigate these roles, we produced membrane-enveloped particles by plasmid-derived expression of combinations of HA, NA, and M proteins (M1 and M2) or by infection with influenza A virus. We monitored particle release, particle morphology, and plasma membrane morphology by using biochemical methods, electron microscopy, electron tomography, and cryo-electron tomography. Our data suggest that HA, NA, or HANA (HA plus NA) expression leads to particle release through nonspecific induction of membrane curvature. In contrast, coexpression with the M proteins clusters the glycoproteins into filamentous membrane protrusions, which can be released as particles by formation of a constricted neck at the base. HA and NA are preferentially distributed to differently curved membranes within these particles. Both the budding intermediates and the released particles are morphologically similar to those produced during infection with influenza A virus. Together, our data provide new insights into influenza virus assembly and show that the M segment together with either of the glycoproteins is the minimal requirement to assemble and release membrane-enveloped particles that are truly virus-like.