Gittins indices and constrained allocation in clinical trials

We explore the use of Gittins indices to search for near optimality in sequential clinical trials. Some adaptive allocation rules are proposed to achieve the following two objectives as far as possible: (i) to reduce the expected successes lost, (ii) to minimize the error probability at the end. Simulation results indicate the merits of the rules based on Gittins indices for small trial sizes. The rules are generalized to the case when neither of the response densities is known. Asymptotic optimality is derived for the constrained rules. A simple allocation rule is recommended for one-stage models. The simulation results indicate that it works better than both equal allocation and Bather's randomized allocation. We conclude with a discussion of possible further developments.

Clinical Accuracy of the MedGem Indirect Calorimeter for Measuring Resting Energy Expenditure in Cancer Patients

OBJECTIVE: To compare, in patients with cancer and in healthy subjects, measured resting energy expenditure (REE) from traditional indirect calorimetry to a new portable device (MedGem) and predicted REE. DESIGN: Cross-sectional clinical validation study. SETTING: Private radiation oncology centre, Brisbane, Australia. SUBJECTS: Cancer patients (n = 18) and healthy subjects (n = 17) aged 37-86 y, with body mass indices ranging from 18 to 42 kg/m(2). INTERVENTIONS: Oxygen consumption (VO(2)) and REE were measured by VMax229 (VM) and MedGem (MG) indirect calorimeters in random order after a 12-h fast and 30-min rest. REE was also calculated from the MG without adjustment for nitrogen excretion (MGN) and estimated from Harris-Benedict prediction equations. Data were analysed using the Bland and Altman approach, based on a clinically acceptable difference between methods of 5%. RESULTS: The mean bias (MGN-VM) was 10% and limits of agreement were -42 to 21% for cancer patients; mean bias -5% with limits of -45 to 35% for healthy subjects. Less than half of the cancer patients (n = 7, 46.7%) and only a third (n = 5, 33.3%) of healthy subjects had measured REE by MGN within clinically acceptable limits of VM. Predicted REE showed a mean bias (HB-VM) of -5% for cancer patients and 4% for healthy subjects, with limits of agreement of -30 to 20% and -27 to 34%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Limits of agreement for the MG and Harris Benedict equations compared to traditional indirect calorimetry were similar but wide, indicating poor clinical accuracy for determining the REE of individual cancer patients and healthy subjects.

Response and damage evaluation of reinforced concrete frames subjected to blast loading

Bomb attacks carried out by terrorists, targeting high occupancy buildings, have become increasingly common in recent times. Large numbers of casualties and property damage result from overpressure of the blast followed by failing of structural elements. Understanding the blast response of multi-storey buildings and evaluating their remaining life have therefore become important. Response and damage analysis of single structural components, such as columns or slabs, to explosive loads have been examined in the literature, but the studies on blast response and damage analysis of structural frames in multi-storey buildings is limited and this is necessary for assessing the vulnerability of them. This paper investigates the blast response and damage evaluation of reinforced concrete (RC) frames, designed for normal gravity loads, in order to evaluate their remaining life. Numerical modelling and analysis were carried out using the explicit finite element software, LS DYNA. The modelling and analysis takes into consideration reinforcement details together and material performance under higher strain rates. Damage indices for columns are calculated based on their residual and original capacities. Numerical results generated in the can be used to identify relationships between the blast load parameters and the column damage. Damage index curve will provide a simple means for assessing the damage to a typical multi-storey building RC frame under an external bomb circumstance.

Case studies on vibration based damage identification : multi-criteria approach

Vibration based damage identification methods examine the changes in primary modal parameters or quantities derived from modal parameters. As one method may have advantages over the other under some circumstances, a multi-criteria approach is proposed. Case studies are conducted separately on beam, plate and plate-on-beam structures. Using the numerically simulated modal data obtained through finite element analysis software, algorithms based on flexibility and strain energy changes before and after damage are obtained and used as the indices for the assessment of the state of structural health. Results show that the proposed multi-criteria method is effective in damage identification in these structures.

Damage assessment in multiple-girder composite bridge using vibration characteristics

This paper uses dynamic computer simulation techniques to apply a procedure using vibration-based methods for damage assessment in multiple-girder composite bridge. In addition to changes in natural frequencies, this multi-criteria procedure incorporates two methods, namely the modal flexibility and the modal strain energy method. Using the numerically simulated modal data obtained through finite element analysis software, algorithms based on modal flexibility and modal strain energy change before and after damage are obtained and used as the indices for the assessment of structural health state. The feasibility and capability of the approach is demonstrated through numerical studies of proposed structure with six damage scenarios. It is concluded that the modal strain energy method is competent for application on multiple-girder composite bridge, as evidenced through the example treated in this paper.

Listening to nature : acoustic monitoring of the environment

The requirement to monitor the rapid pace of environmental change due to global warming and to human development is producing large volumes of data but placing much stress on the capacity of ecologists to store, analyse and visualise that data. To date, much of the data has been provided by low level sensors monitoring soil moisture, dissolved nutrients, light intensity, gas composition and the like. However, a significant part of an ecologist’s work is to obtain information about species diversity, distributions and relationships. This task typically requires the physical presence of an ecologist in the field, listening and watching for species of interest. It is an extremely difficult task to automate because of the higher order difficulties in bandwidth, data management and intelligent analysis if one wishes to emulate the highly trained eyes and ears of an ecologist. This paper is concerned with just one part of the bigger challenge of environmental monitoring – the acquisition and analysis of acoustic recordings of the environment. Our intention is to provide helpful tools to ecologists – tools that apply information technologies and computational technologies to all aspects of the acoustic environment. The on-line system which we are building in conjunction with ecologists offers an integrated approach to recording, data management and analysis. The ecologists we work with have different requirements and therefore we have adopted the toolbox approach, that is, we offer a number of different web services that can be concatenated according to need. In particular, one group of ecologists is concerned with identifying the presence or absence of species and their distributions in time and space. Another group, motivated by legislative requirements for measuring habitat condition, are interested in summary indices of environmental health. In both case, the key issues are scalability and automation.

Measuring school-related stressors in adolescents

Some 1620 high school students responded to 68 items that measure adolescent stressors. Thirty-five of the items were based on J. P. Kohn and G. H. Frazer's Academic Stress Scale [1(1986) An Academic Stress Scale: Identification and Rated Importance of Academic Stressors, Psychological Reports, Vol. 59, pp. 415–426] developed in the United States, while the remaining 33 items were developed from P. Strutynski's [(1985) A Survey of Queensland Year 10, 11 and 12 Student Attitudes to Schools and Schooling, State Planning Committee, International Youth Year, Brisbane] lists of the most frequently named problems of 2336 Australian high school students. Confirmatory Factor Analysis was used to test and develop a measurement model developed from an extensive review of previous scales. The High School Stressors Scale emerged from the analytic process and measures nine school-related stressors. For researchers focusing on school-related problems and stressors among adolescents, the HSSS promises to be a very useful instrument. It has sound construct and predictive validity and adequate reliability, as demonstrated by the goodness-of-fit indices the squared multiple correlations.

The role of timber plantations in UK Investment portfolios

Although timber plantations and forests are classified as forms of agricultural production, the ownership of this land classification is not limited to rural producers. Timber plantations and forests are now regarded as a long-term investment with both institutional and absentee owners. While the NCREIF property indices have been the benchmarks for the measurement of the performance of the commercial property market in the UK, for many years the IPD timberland index has recently emerged as the U.K. forest and timberland performance indicator. The IPD Forest index incorporates 126 properties over five regions in the U.K. This paper will utilise the IPD Forestry Index to examine the performance of U.K. timber plantations and forests over the period 1981-2004. In particular, issues to be critically assessed include plantation and forest performance analysis, comparative investment analysis, and the role of plantations and forests in investment portfolios, the risk reduction and portfolio benefits of plantations and forests in mixed-asset portfolios and the strategic investment significance of U.K. timberlands.

Ethnic differences in body composition and anthropometric characteristics in Australian Caucasian and urban Indigenous children

The objective was to compare ethnic differences in anthropometry, including size, proportions and fat distribution, and body composition in a cohort of seventy Caucasian (forty-four boys, twenty-six girls) and seventy-four urban Indigenous (thirty-six boys, thirty-eight girls) children (aged 9–15 years). Anthropometric measures (stature, body mass, eight skinfolds, thirteen girths, six bone lengths and five bone breadths) and body composition assessment using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry were conducted. Body composition variables including total body fat percentage and percentage abdominal fat were determined and together with anthropometric indices, including BMI (kg/m2), abdominal:height ratio (AHtR) and sum of skinfolds, ethnic differences were compared for each sex. After adjustment for age, Indigenous girls showed significantly (P < 0·05) greater trunk circumferences and proportion of overweight and obesity than their Caucasian counterparts. In addition, Indigenous children had a significantly greater proportion (P < 0·05) of trunk fat. The best model for total and android fat prediction included sum of skinfolds and age in both sexes (>93 % of variation). Ethnicity was only important in girls where abdominal circumference and AHtR were included and Indigenous girls showed significantly (P < 0·05) smaller total/android fat deposition than Caucasian girls at the given abdominal circumference or AHtR values. Differences in anthropometric and fat distribution patterns in Caucasian and Indigenous children may justify the need for more appropriate screening criteria for obesity in Australian children relevant to ethnic origin.

The role of timber plantations in U.K. investment portfolios

Although timber plantations and forests are classified as forms of agricultural production, the ownership of this land classification is not limited to rural producers. Timber plantations and forests are now regarded as a long-term investment with both institutional and absentee owners. While the NCREIF property indices have been the benchmarks for the measurement of the performance of the commercial property market in the UK, for many years the IPD timberland index has recently emerged as the U.K. forest and timberland performance indicator. The IPD Forest index incorporates 126 properties over five regions in the U.K. This paper will utilise the IPD Forestry Index to examine the performance of U.K. timber plantations and forests over the period 1981-2004. In particular, issues to be critically assessed include plantation and forest performance analysis, comparative investment analysis, and the role of plantations and forests in investment portfolios, the risk reduction and portfolio benefits of plantations and forests in mixed-asset portfolios and the strategic investment significance of U.K. timberlands.

Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Spoken term detection using fast phonetic decoding

While spoken term detection (STD) systems based on word indices provide good accuracy, there are several practical applications where it is infeasible or too costly to employ an LVCSR engine. An STD system is presented, which is designed to incorporate a fast phonetic decoding front-end and be robust to decoding errors whilst still allowing for rapid search speeds. This goal is achieved through mono-phone open-loop decoding coupled with fast hierarchical phone lattice search. Results demonstrate that an STD system that is designed with the constraint of a fast and simple phonetic decoding front-end requires a compromise to be made between search speed and search accuracy.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Motivation, development and validation of a new spectral greenness index : a spectral dimension related to foliage projective cover

A method is presented for the development of a regional Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) spectral greenness index, coherent with a six-dimensional index set, based on a single ETM+ spectral image of a reference landscape. The first three indices of the set are determined by a polar transformation of the first three principal components of the reference image and relate to scene brightness, percent foliage projective cover (FPC) and water related features. The remaining three principal components, of diminishing significance with respect to the reference image, complete the set. The reference landscape, a 2200 km2 area containing a mix of cattle pasture, native woodland and forest, is located near Injune in South East Queensland, Australia. The indices developed from the reference image were tested using TM spectral images from 19 regionally dispersed areas in Queensland, representative of dissimilar landscapes containing woody vegetation ranging from tall closed forest to low open woodland. Examples of image transformations and two-dimensional feature space plots are used to demonstrate image interpretations related to the first three indices. Coherent, sensible, interpretations of landscape features in images composed of the first three indices can be made in terms of brightness (red), foliage cover (green) and water (blue). A limited comparison is made with similar existing indices. The proposed greenness index was found to be very strongly related to FPC and insensitive to smoke. A novel Bayesian, bounded space, modelling method, was used to validate the greenness index as a good predictor of FPC. Airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) estimates of FPC along transects of the 19 sites provided the training and validation data. Other spectral indices from the set were found to be useful as model covariates that could improve FPC predictions. They act to adjust the greenness/FPC relationship to suit different spectral backgrounds. The inclusion of an external meteorological covariate showed that further improvements to regional-scale predictions of FPC could be gained over those based on spectral indices alone.

Damage assessment of 3D reinforced concrete frame under external explosion loading

Multi-storey buildings are highly vulnerable to terrorist bombing attacks in various parts of the world. Large numbers of casualties and extensive property damage result not only from blast overpressure, but also from the failing of structural components. Understanding the blast response and damage consequences of reinforced concrete (RC) building frames is therefore important when assessing multi-storey buildings designed to resist normal gravity loads. However, limited research has been conducted to identify the blast response and damage of RC frames in order to assess the vulnerability of entire buildings. This paper discusses the blast response and evaluation of damage of three-dimension (3D) RC rigid frame under potential blast loads scenarios. The explicit finite element modelling and analysis under time history blast pressure loads were carried out by LS DYNA code. Complete 3D RC frame was developed with relevant reinforcement details and material models with strain rate effect. Idealised triangular blast pressures calculated from standard manuals are applied on the front face of the model in the present investigation. The analysis results show the blast response, as displacements and material yielding of the structural elements in the RC frame. The level of damage is evaluated and classified according to the selected load case scenarios. Residual load carrying capacities are evaluated and level of damage was presented by the defined damage indices. This information is necessary to determine the vulnerability of existing multi-storey buildings with RC frames and to identify the level of damage under typical external explosion environments. It also provides basic guidance to the design of new buildings to resist blast loads.