Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Perceived safety, quality and cultural competency of maternity care for culturally and linguistically diverse women in Queensland

Various policies, plans, and initiatives have been implemented to provide safe, quality, and culturally competent care to patients within Queensland’s healthcare system. A series of models of maternity care are available in Queensland that range from standard public care to private midwifery care. The current study aimed to determine whether identifying as Culturally or Linguistically Diverse (CALD) was associated with the perceived safety, quality, and cultural competency of maternity care from a consumer perspective, and to identify specific needs and preferences of CALD maternity care consumers. Secondary analysis of data collected in the Having a Baby in Queensland Survey 2012 was used to compare the experiences of 655 CALD women to those of 4049 non-CALD women in Queensland, Australia, across three stages of maternity care: pregnancy, labour and birth, and after birth. After adjustment for model of maternity care received and socio-demographic characteristics, CALD women were significantly more likely than non-CALD women to experience suboptimal staff technical competence in pregnancy, overall perceived safety in pregnancy and labour/birth, and interpersonal sensitivity in pregnancy and labour/birth. Approximately 50% of CALD women did not have the choice to use a translator or interpreter, or the gender of their care provider, during labour and birth. Thirteen themes of preferences and needs of CALD maternity care consumers based on ethnicity, cultural beliefs, or traditions were identified, however, these were rarely met. Findings imply that CALD women in Queensland experience disadvantageous maternity care with regards to perceived staff technical competence, safety, and interpersonal sensitivity, and receive care that lacks cultural competence. Improved access to support persons, continuity and choice of carer, and staff availability and training is recommended.

Medically-attended respiratory illnesses amongst pregnant women in Brisbane, Australia

There are limited community-based data on the burden of influenza and influenza-like illnesses during pregnancy to inform disease surveillance and control. We aimed to determine the incidence of medically-attended respiratory illnesses (MARI) in pregnant women and the proportion of women who are tested for respiratory pathogens at these visits. We conducted a nested retrospective cohort study of a non-random sample of women aged ≥18 years who had a live birth in maternity units in Brisbane, Queensland, from March 2012 to October 2014. The primary outcomes were self-reported doctor visits for MARI and laboratory investigations for respiratory pathogens. Descriptive analyses were performed. Among 1202 participants, 222 (18.5%, 95%CI 16.3%-20.7%) self-reported MARI during their pregnancy. Of those with an MARI, 20.3% (45/222) self-reported a laboratory test was performed. We were able to confirm with health service providers that 46.7% (21/45) of tests were undertaken, responses from providers were not received for the remainder. Whilst one in five women in this population reported a MARI in pregnancy, only 3.7% (45/1202) reported a clinical specimen had been arranged at the consultation and the ability to validate that self-report was problematic. As the focus on maternal immunisation increases, ascertainment of the aetiological agent causing MARI in this population will be required and efficient and reliable methods for obtaining those data at the community level need to be established.

Patient reported adherence to hypertension treatment: A revalidation study

Background Adherence to hypertension management in patients with hypertension is known to influence their blood pressure control. It is important to measure patients’ adherence behaviours to assist with designing appropriate interventions to improve blood pressure control. Aims The purposes of this study were to use confirmatory factor analysis to revalidate the Therapeutic Adherence Scale for Hypertensive Patients (TASHP), and to calculate the cut-off score for classifying adherence behaviours into two groups: satisfactory and low adherence behaviours. Methods Systematic random sampling was used to recruit patients with hypertension in China. Demographic characteristics, the TASHP and blood pressure were collected. The psychometric tests of the TASHP included: construct validity, criteria-related validity, internal reliability, and split-half reliability. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve and Youden index were used to identify the cut-off score of the TASHP for blood pressure control. Results This study involved 366 patients. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the four-component structure of the TASHP proposed in the original scale development study. The TASHP has a satisfactory internal reliability (Cronbach’s α > 0.7) and a satisfactory split-half reliability (Spearman–Brown coefficients > 0.7). The patients with overall scores of the TASHP ⩾ 109 points were considered to have satisfactory adherence behaviours. Conclusion The TASHP is a validated and reliable instrument to measure the adherence to hypertension management in Chinese patients with hypertension. The cut-off score of 109 points can be considered as an effective measure to classify the level of adherence into satisfactory and low adherence behaviours.

Passive control of a bi-ventricular assist device : an experimental and numerical investigation

For the last two decades heart disease has been the highest single cause of death for the human population. With an alarming number of patients requiring heart transplant, and donations not able to satisfy the demand, treatment looks to mechanical alternatives. Rotary Ventricular Assist Devices, VADs, are miniature pumps which can be implanted alongside the heart to assist its pumping function. These constant flow devices are smaller, more efficient and promise a longer operational life than more traditional pulsatile VADs. The development of rotary VADs has focused on single pumps assisting the left ventricle only to supply blood for the body. In many patients however, failure of both ventricles demands that an additional pulsatile device be used to support the failing right ventricle. This condition renders them hospital bound while they wait for an unlikely heart donation. Reported attempts to use two rotary pumps to support both ventricles concurrently have warned of inherent haemodynamic instability. Poor balancing of the pumps’ flow rates quickly leads to vascular congestion increasing the risk of oedema and ventricular ‘suckdown’ occluding the inlet to the pump. This thesis introduces a novel Bi-Ventricular Assist Device (BiVAD) configuration where the pump outputs are passively balanced by vascular pressure. The BiVAD consists of two rotary pumps straddling the mechanical passive controller. Fluctuations in vascular pressure induce small deflections within both pumps adjusting their outputs allowing them to maintain arterial pressure. To optimise the passive controller’s interaction with the circulation, the controller’s dynamic response is optimised with a spring, mass, damper arrangement. This two part study presents a comprehensive assessment of the prototype’s ‘viability’ as a support device. Its ‘viability’ was considered based on its sensitivity to pathogenic haemodynamics and the ability of the passive response to maintain healthy circulation. The first part of the study is an experimental investigation where a prototype device was designed and built, and then tested in a pulsatile mock circulation loop. The BiVAD was subjected to a range of haemodynamic imbalances as well as a dynamic analysis to assess the functionality of the mechanical damper. The second part introduces the development of a numerical program to simulate human circulation supported by the passively controlled BiVAD. Both investigations showed that the prototype was able to mimic the native baroreceptor response. Simulating hypertension, poor flow balancing and subsequent ventricular failure during BiVAD support allowed the passive controller’s response to be assessed. Triggered by the resulting pressure imbalance, the controller responded by passively adjusting the VAD outputs in order to maintain healthy arterial pressures. This baroreceptor-like response demonstrated the inherent stability of the auto regulating BiVAD prototype. Simulating pulmonary hypertension in the more observable numerical model, however, revealed a serious issue with the passive response. The subsequent decrease in venous return into the left heart went unnoticed by the passive controller. Meanwhile the coupled nature of the passive response not only decreased RVAD output to reduce pulmonary arterial pressure, but it also increased LVAD output. Consequently, the LVAD increased fluid evacuation from the left ventricle, LV, and so actually accelerated the onset of LV collapse. It was concluded that despite the inherently stable baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller, its lack of sensitivity to venous return made it unviable in its present configuration. The study revealed a number of other important findings. Perhaps the most significant was that the reduced pulse experienced during constant flow support unbalanced the ratio of effective resistances of both vascular circuits. Even during steady rotary support therefore, the resulting ventricle volume imbalance increased the likelihood of suckdown. Additionally, mechanical damping of the passive controller’s response successfully filtered out pressure fluctuations from residual ventricular function. Finally, the importance of recognising inertial contributions to blood flow in the atria and ventricles in a numerical simulation were highlighted. This thesis documents the first attempt to create a fully auto regulated rotary cardiac assist device. Initial results encourage development of an inlet configuration sensitive to low flow such as collapsible inlet cannulae. Combining this with the existing baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller will render a highly stable passively controlled BiVAD configuration. The prototype controller’s passive interaction with the vasculature is a significant step towards a highly stable new generation of artificial heart.

Parent decisions regarding paid work and care of the child

Australia has witnessed a continual increase in maternal employment over the past two decades, which has placed focus on child care- its effects on the child and on early childhood education and care policy and provision. The engagement of women in the paid workforce contributes to national economic development, and is recognised in government policy incentives such as cash subsidies and tax relief for child care fees. These incentives are targeted towards mothers, to encourage them to engage in paid work. Making a contribution to the family’s economy and to a mother’s economic self sufficiency are two key drivers for women’s engagement in satisfying paid work. Many women also seek to maintain a personal investment in the development of their career, simultaneously ensuring that the child is experiencing suitable care. Policies that support women’s choices for satisfying workforce engagement and care arrangements are prudent for ensuring productivity of the economy as well as for enhancing the wellbeing of parents and children (OECD, 2007). Policies that provide family friendly employment arrangements, paid parental leave, and child care support, directly affect maternal employment decisions. Availability of family friendly employment policies is viewed as one way to not only promote gender equity in employment opportunities but also support the wellbeing of children and families (OECD, 2007). Yet there are not comprehensive and coherent policies on work and family in Australia. Australia is due to implement its first paid parental leave scheme in January, 2011. At the time of the data collection of this research, June 2007 to December 2008, Australia had no statutory provision for paid parental leave. To date, most research has focused on the consequences of paid work and care decisions made by women. Far less is known about the processes of decision-making and reasons underlying women’s choices. Investigation of what is most salient for women as they make decisions regarding engagement in paid work, and care for their child is important in order to inform policy and practices related to parental leave, family friendly employment and care for the child. This prospective longitudinal research was of 124 Australian expectant first-time mothers who completed questionnaires in their third trimester of pregnancy, and again at six and twelve months postpartum. First-time expectant mothers' decisions regarding engaging in paid work and selecting care for their child represent those of a group who are invested in motherhood and have usually had direct experience of engaging in paid work. They therefore provide an important insight into society’s idealised views about motherhood and the emotional and social uncertainty of making personal decisions where the consequences of such decisions are unknown. These decisions reflect public beliefs about the role of women in contributing to the country’s productivity and decisions about providing for the economic and emotional care needs of their family. As so little is known about the reasoning and processes of decision-making of women’s choices regarding paid work and care of the child this research was designed to capture expectant first-time mother’s preferred options for engaging in paid work and the care of their child, and investigate their actual decisions made at six and 12 months postpartum. To capture preferred options, decisions and outcomes of decisions regarding paid work and care of the child a prospective longitudinal research design was utilised. This design had three important components that addressed key limitations in the extant literature. First the research commenced in pregnancy in order to investigate preferences and beliefs about paid work and care and to examine baseline data that may influence decisions made as the women returned to paid work. Second the research involved longitudinal tracking from the antenatal time point to six and 12 months postpartum in order to identify the influences on decisions made. Third the research measured outcomes of the decisions made at each time point. This research examined the intentions, preferences, beliefs, influences, and outcomes of the decisions about engagement in paid work and choice of care. The analyses examined factors predicting return to paid work, the timing of return and extent of engagement in paid work; the care for the child; satisfaction with paid work; satisfaction with care for the child, motherhood and fulfilment; and maternal wellbeing at six and 12 months postpartum. The factors of interest were both rational/economic (availability and extent of paid and unpaid maternity leave; flexible work patterns) and emotional/affective (career satisfaction, investment in motherhood, and concern with quality of care for the child). Results indicated a group preference, and realisation for, return to paid work within the first year after the birth of a child but with reduction in hours to part-time. Most women saw paid work not only as a source of income but also as source of personal satisfaction. There were four key themes arising from this research. First, the women strived to feel emotionally secure when deciding about engaging in paid work and care of the child. To achieve emotional security women made their decisions for paid work and care of the child differently. A woman’s decision for maternal employment is a function of her personal beliefs, preferences and context regarding paid work and care of the child. She adjusts her established work identity with her new identity as a mother. The second key theme from this research is that the women made their decisions for maternal employment in response to their personal context and there were different levels of opportunities between the women’s choices. There is inequity of entitlement regarding work conditions associated with a woman’s education level. This has implications for the woman’s engagement in paid work, and her child’s health and wellbeing. The third key theme is that the quality of the child’s care mattered to the women in the research. They preferred care provided by parents and/or relatives more than any other types of care. The fourth key theme identified that satisfaction and wellbeing outcomes experienced as a result of maternal employment decisions were a complex interaction between multiple factors that change across time with the ongoing development of the mother’s identity, and the development of the child. The implications for policy within Australia are that the employment of mothers in the workforce necessitates that non-parental care becomes a public concern, where there is universal access to good quality affordable care for every child, not just for those who can afford it. This is equitable and represents real choice while supporting the rights of the child (Thorpe, Cloney & Tayler, 2010), protecting and promoting the public interest (Cleveland & Krashinsky, 2010). Children’s health and wellbeing will be supported (Moore & Oberklaid, 2010) while children are in non-parental care, and they will be exposed to environments and experiences that support their learning and development. The significant design of the research enabled the trajectories of first-time expectant women to be tracked from the antenatal point to 12 months postpartum. But there were limitations: the small sample size, the over-representation of the sample being highly educated and the nature of a longitudinal research that is set within the economic, social and political context at that time. These limitations are discussed in relation to suggestions for future research.

Determinants of rapid weight gain during infancy: Baseline results from the NOURISH randomised controlled trial.

Background: Rapid weight gain in infancy is an important predictor of obesity in later childhood. Our aim was to determine which modifiable variables are associated with rapid weight gain in early life. Methods: Subjects were healthy infants enrolled in NOURISH, a randomised, controlled trial evaluating an intervention to promote positive early feeding practices. This analysis used the birth and baseline data for NOURISH. Birthweight was collected from hospital records and infants were also weighed at baseline assessment when they were aged 4-7 months and before randomisation. Infant feeding practices and demographic variables were collected from the mother using a self administered questionnaire. Rapid weight gain was defined as an increase in weight-for-age Z-score (using WHO standards) above 0.67 SD from birth to baseline assessment, which is interpreted clinically as crossing centile lines on a growth chart. Variables associated with rapid weight gain were evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model. Results: Complete data were available for 612 infants (88% of the total sample recruited) with a mean (SD) age of 4.3 (1.0) months at baseline assessment. After adjusting for mother's age, smoking in pregnancy, BMI, and education and infant birthweight, age, gender and introduction of solid foods, the only two modifiable factors associated with rapid weight gain to attain statistical significance were formula feeding [OR=1.72 (95%CI 1.01-2.94), P= 0.047] and feeding on schedule [OR=2.29 (95%CI 1.14-4.61), P=0.020]. Male gender and lower birthweight were non-modifiable factors associated with rapid weight gain. Conclusions: This analysis supports the contention that there is an association between formula feeding, feeding to schedule and weight gain in the first months of life. Mechanisms may include the actual content of formula milk (e.g. higher protein intake) or differences in feeding styles, such as feeding to schedule, which increase the risk of overfeeding. Trial Registration: Australian Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12608000056392

Alcohol and the foetus

The foetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) was first identified as a syndrome in 1973. Since then a large body of research has accumulated. The full syndrome in which heavy alcohol use in pregnancy results in growth retardation, a characteristic facial dysmorphology and brain damage will be described. FAS is the commonest preventable, known cause of intellectual handicap, however, a large proportion of people with partial foetal alcohol syndrome have an intelligence in the normal range. Those with the full syndrome and with identified and diagnosed, intellectual handicap are more likely to receive appropriate services. Those with an intelligence in the normal range, suffer from severe psycho- social disabilities resulting in homelessness, mental illness and frequently criminality. There is a larger number of people with a partial syndrome who also suffer from high rates of secondary disability including learning problems and 70% of FAS people also have ADD or ADHD...

Postpartum care for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus across urban, rural and remote locations : a protocol for a cohort linkage study

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing, along with obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people* in Australia particularly affected. GDM causes serious complications in pregnancy, birth, and the longer term, for both women and their infants. Women diagnosed with GDM have an eightfold risk of developing T2DM after pregnancy, compared with women who have not had GDM. Indigenous women have an even higher risk, at a younger age, and progress more quickly from GDM to T2DM, compared to non-Indigenous women. If left undetected and untreated, T2DM can lead to heart disease, stroke, renal disease, kidney failure, amputations and blindness. A GDM diagnosis offers a ‘window of opportunity’ for diabetes health interventions and it is vital that acceptable and effective prevention, treatment, and post-pregnancy care are provided. Low rates of post-pregnancy screening for T2DM are reported among non-Aboriginal women in Australia and among Indigenous women in other countries, however data for Aboriginal women are scarce. Breastfeeding, a healthy diet, and exercise can also help to prevent T2DM, and together with T2DM screening are recommended elements of ‘post-pregnancy care’ for women with GDM, This paper describes methods for a data linkage study to investigate rates of post-pregnancy care among women with GDM. Methods/Design: This retrospective cohort includes all women who gave birth at Cairns Base Hospital in Far North Queensland, Australia, from 2004 to 2010, coded as having GDM in the Cairns Base Hospital Clinical Coding system. Data linkage is being conducted with the Queensland Perinatal Data Collection, and three laboratories. Hospital medical records are being reviewed to validate the accuracy of GDM case ascertainment, and gather information on breastfeeding and provision of dietary advice. Multiple logistic regression is being used to compare post-pregnancy care between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women, while adjusting for other factors may impact on post-pregnancy care. Survival analysis is being used to estimate the rates of progression from GDM to T2DM. Discussion: There are challenges to collecting post-pregnancy data for women with GDM. However, research is urgently needed to ensure adequate post-pregnancy care is provided for women with GDM in Australia.

Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder diagnosis and counselling

The Foetal Alcohol Syndrome has long gone unrecognised and undiagnosed in Australia. In the last few years of the 21st Century (2010-14) health practitioners are finally seeking ways of diagnosing the effects of alcohol in pregnancy on the next generation. The author offers a power point presentation which gives guidance on making an accurate diagnosis.

Signaling pathway genes for blood pressure, folate and cholesterol levels among hypertensives : an epistasis analysis

Irregular atrial pressure, defective folate and cholesterol metabolism contribute to the pathogenesis of hypertension. However, little is known about the combined roles of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR), apolipoprotein-E (ApoE) and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) genes, which are involved in metabolism and homeostasis. The objective of this study is to investigate the association of the MTHFR 677 C>T and 1298A>C, ACE insertion–deletion (I/D) and ApoE genetic polymorphisms with hypertension and to further explore the epistasis interactions that are involved in these mechanisms. A total of 594 subjects, including 348 normotensive and 246 hypertensive ischemic stroke subjects were recruited. The MTHFR 677 C>T and 1298A>C, ACE I/D and ApoEpolymorphisms were genotyped and the epistasis interaction were analyzed. The MTHFR 677 C>T and ApoE polymorphisms demonstrated significant associations with susceptibility to hypertension in multiple logistic regression models, multifactor dimensionality reduction and a classification and regression tree. In addition, the logistic regression model demonstrated that significant interactions between the ApoE E3E3, E2E4, E2E2 and MTHFR 677 C>T polymorphisms existed. In conclusion, the results of this epistasis study indicated significant association between the ApoE and MTHFR polymorphisms and hypertension.

Feature selection using expected attainable discrimination

We propose expected attainable discrimination (EAD) as a measure to select discrete valued features for reliable discrimination between two classes of data. EAD is an average of the area under the ROC curves obtained when a simple histogram probability density model is trained and tested on many random partitions of a data set. EAD can be incorporated into various stepwise search methods to determine promising subsets of features, particularly when misclassification costs are difficult or impossible to specify. Experimental application to the problem of risk prediction in pregnancy is described.

The effects of psychosocial factors on the mother's emotional well-being during early parenthood: A cross-cultural study of Britain and Greece

The effect of psychosocial factors on the emotional well-being of mothers following childbirth were examined within the cultural contexts of Britain and Greece. These mothers had already completed questionnaires during pregnancy and were contacted a second time in the postpartum period. At 4–6 weeks postpartum a sample of 165 Greek mothers and 101 British mothers and their partners completed the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. The relationship between mothers' EPDS scores and measures of emotional well-being in pregnancy (CCEI), social support, life events, fathers' EPDS score, and father's perception of change in partner was examined in each culture. No difference in the distribution of EPDS scores in each culture was found. Social support and life events were found to predict postnatal depression in both cultures. Additionally, in Greece, emotional well-being in pregnancy made a separate contribution to prediction. The major difference between the two cultures was in the relationship between mothers and their partners. Greek fathers were more emotionally and physically distanced from their partners during pregnancy, birth and early parenthood and perceived their partners as being more changed by the transition to parenthood. These differences were not reflected in differences in emotional well-being possibly because they accord with social expectation in each culture.