Dynamic equivalent state estimation for multi-area power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units

This paper proposes a new approach for state estimation of angles and frequencies of equivalent areas in large power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units. Defining coherent generators and their correspondent areas, generators are aggregated and system reduction is performed in each area of inter-connected power systems. The structure of the reduced system is obtained based on the characteristics of the reduced linear model and measurement data to form the non-linear model of the reduced system. Then a Kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to provide an equivalent dynamic system state estimation using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The method is simulated on two test systems to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Collective dynamics and control of a 3-D small-world network with time delays

The paper presents a detailed analysis on the collective dynamics and delayed state feedback control of a three-dimensional delayed small-world network. The trivial equilibrium of the model is first investigated, showing that the uncontrolled model exhibits complicated unbounded behavior. Then three control strategies, namely a position feedback control, a velocity feedback control, and a hybrid control combined velocity with acceleration feedback, are then introduced to stabilize this unstable system. It is shown in these three control schemes that only the hybrid control can easily stabilize the 3-D network system. And with properly chosen delay and gain in the delayed feedback path, the hybrid controlled model may have stable equilibrium, or periodic solutions resulting from the Hopf bifurcation, or complex stranger attractor from the period-doubling bifurcation. Moreover, the direction of Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcation periodic solutions are analyzed. The results are further extended to any "d" dimensional network. It shows that to stabilize a "d" dimensional delayed small-world network, at least a "d – 1" order completed differential feedback is needed. This work provides a constructive suggestion for the high dimensional delayed systems.

Diurnal temperature range and childhood asthma : a time-series study

BACKGROUND: Hot and cold temperatures have been associated with childhood asthma. However, the relationship between daily temperature variation and childhood asthma is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and childhood asthma. METHODS: A Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between DTR and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, from January 1st 2003 to December 31st 2009. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood asthma. The DTR effect on childhood asthma increased above a DTR of 10[degree sign]C. The effect of DTR on childhood asthma was the greatest for lag 0--9 days, with a 31% (95% confidence interval: 11% -- 58%) increase of emergency department admissions per 5[degree sign]C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 5--9 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect than others. CONCLUSIONS: Large DTR may trigger childhood asthma. Future measures to control and prevent childhood asthma should include taking temperature variability into account. More protective measures should be taken after a day of DTR above10[degree sign]C.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality : epidemiological evidence from China

Objective: To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. Design: A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. Patients: 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004–2008. Results: The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Conclusions: Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate–IHD mortality relationships.

Phantom Scatter and the A-SI EPID

Introduction: The use of amorphous-silicon electronic portal imaging devices (a-Si EPIDs) for dosimetry is complicated by the effects of scattered radiation. In photon radiotherapy, primary signal at the detector can be accompanied by photons scattered from linear accelerator components, detector materials, intervening air, treatment room surfaces (floor, walls, etc) and from the patient/phantom being irradiated. Consequently, EPID measurements which presume to take scatter into account are highly sensitive to the identification of these contributions. One example of this susceptibility is the process of calibrating an EPID for use as a gauge of (radiological) thickness, where specific allowance must be made for the effect of phantom-scatter on the intensity of radiation measured through different thicknesses of phantom. This is usually done via a theoretical calculation which assumes that phantom scatter is linearly related to thickness and field-size. We have, however, undertaken a more detailed study of the scattering effects of fields of different dimensions when applied to phantoms of various thicknesses in order to derive scattered-primary ratios (SPRs) directly from simulation results. This allows us to make a more-accurate calibration of the EPID, and to qualify the appositeness of the theoretical SPR calculations. Methods: This study uses a full MC model of the entire linac-phantom-detector system simulated using EGSnrc/BEAMnrc codes. The Elekta linac and EPID are modelled according to specifications from the manufacturer and the intervening phantoms are modelled as rectilinear blocks of water or plastic, with their densities set to a range of physically realistic and unrealistic values. Transmissions through these various phantoms are calculated using the dose detected in the model EPID and used in an evaluation of the field-size-dependence of SPR, in different media, applying a method suggested for experimental systems by Swindell and Evans [1]. These results are compared firstly with SPRs calculated using the theoretical, linear relationship between SPR and irradiated volume, and secondly with SPRs evaluated from our own experimental data. An alternate evaluation of the SPR in each simulated system is also made by modifying the BEAMnrc user code READPHSP, to identify and count those particles in a given plane of the system that have undergone a scattering event. In addition to these simulations, which are designed to closely replicate the experimental setup, we also used MC models to examine the effects of varying the setup in experimentally challenging ways (changing the size of the air gap between the phantom and the EPID, changing the longitudinal position of the EPID itself). Experimental measurements used in this study were made using an Elekta Precise linear accelerator, operating at 6MV, with an Elekta iView GT a-Si EPID. Results and Discussion: 1. Comparison with theory: With the Elekta iView EPID fixed at 160 cm from the photon source, the phantoms, when positioned isocentrically, are located 41 to 55 cm from the surface of the panel. At this geometry, a close but imperfect agreement (differing by up to 5%) can be identified between the results of the simulations and the theoretical calculations. However, this agreement can be totally disrupted by shifting the phantom out of the isocentric position. Evidently, the allowance made for source-phantom-detector geometry by the theoretical expression for SPR is inadequate to describe the effect that phantom proximity can have on measurements made using an (infamously low-energy sensitive) a-Si EPID. 2. Comparison with experiment: For various square field sizes and across the range of phantom thicknesses, there is good agreement between simulation data and experimental measurements of the transmissions and the derived values of the primary intensities. However, the values of SPR obtained through these simulations and measurements seem to be much more sensitive to slight differences between the simulated and real systems, leading to difficulties in producing a simulated system which adequately replicates the experimental data. (For instance, small changes to simulated phantom density make large differences to resulting SPR.) 3. Comparison with direct calculation: By developing a method for directly counting the number scattered particles reaching the detector after passing through the various isocentric phantom thicknesses, we show that the experimental method discussed above is providing a good measure of the actual degree of scattering produced by the phantom. This calculation also permits the analysis of the scattering sources/sinks within the linac and EPID, as well as the phantom and intervening air. Conclusions: This work challenges the assumption that scatter to and within an EPID can be accounted for using a simple, linear model. Simulations discussed here are intended to contribute to a fuller understanding of the contribution of scattered radiation to the EPID images that are used in dosimetry calculations. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by the NHMRC, through a project grant, and supported by the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. The authors are also grateful to Elekta for the provision of manufacturing specifications which permitted the detailed simulation of their linear accelerators and amorphous-silicon electronic portal imaging devices. Computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the HPC and Research Support Group, QUT, Brisbane, Australia.

Cerebral cortex activation mapping upon electrical muscle stimulation by 32-channel time-domain functional near-infrared spectroscopy

The application of different EMS current thresholds on muscle activates not only the muscle but also peripheral sensory axons that send proprioceptive and pain signals to the cerebral cortex. A 32-channel time-domain fNIRS instrument was employed to map regional cortical activities under varied EMS current intensities applied on the right wrist extensor muscle. Eight healthy volunteers underwent four EMS at different current thresholds based on their individual maximal tolerated intensity (MTI), i.e., 10 % < 50 % < 100 % < over 100 % MTI. Time courses of the absolute oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin concentrations primarily over the bilateral sensorimotor cortical (SMC) regions were extrapolated, and cortical activation maps were determined by general linear model using the NIRS-SPM software. The stimulation-induced wrist extension paradigm significantly increased activation of the contralateral SMC region according to the EMS intensities, while the ipsilateral SMC region showed no significant changes. This could be due in part to a nociceptive response to the higher EMS current intensities and result also from increased sensorimotor integration in these cortical regions.

Extreme temperatures and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, Australia

Objectives To examine the effect of extreme temperatures on emergency department admissions (EDAs) for childhood asthma. Methods An ecological design was used in this study. A Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the effect of temperature on EDAs for asthma among children aged 0–14 years in Brisbane, Australia, during January 2003–December 2009, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 13 324 EDAs for childhood asthma during the study period. Both hot and cold temperatures were associated with increases in EDAs for childhood asthma, and their effects both appeared to be acute. An added effect of heat waves on EDAs for childhood asthma was observed, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Male children and children aged 0–4 years were most vulnerable to heat effects, while children aged 10–14 years were most vulnerable to cold effects. Conclusions Both hot and cold temperatures seemed to affect EDAs for childhood asthma. As climate change continues, children aged 0–4 years are at particular risk for asthma.

The effects of hot and cold temperatures on emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia

As Earth's climate is rapidly changing, the impact of ambient temperature on health outcomes has attracted increasing attention in the recent time. Considerable number of excess deaths has been reported because of exposure to ambient hot and cold temperatures. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the relation between temperature and morbidity. The aim of this study was to characterize the relationship between both hot and cold temperatures and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia, and to examine whether the relation varied by age and socioeconomic factors. It aimed to explore lag structures of temperature–morbidity association for respiratory causes, and to estimate the magnitude of emergency hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases attributable to hot and cold temperatures for the large contribution of both diseases to the total emergency hospital admissions. A time series study design was applied using routinely collected data of daily emergency hospital admissions, weather and air pollution variables in Brisbane during 1996–2005. Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear structure was adopted to assess the impact of temperature on emergency hospital admissions after adjustment for confounding factors. Both hot and cold effects were found, with higher risk of hot temperatures than that of cold temperatures. Increases in mean temperature above 24.2oC were associated with increased morbidity, especially for the elderly ≥ 75 years old with the largest effect. The magnitude of the risk estimates of hot temperature varied by age and socioeconomic factors. High population density, low household income, and unemployment appeared to modify the temperature–morbidity relation. There were different lag structures for hot and cold temperatures, with the acute hot effect within 3 days after hot exposure and about 2-week lagged cold effect on respiratory diseases. A strong harvesting effect after 3 days was evident for respiratory diseases. People suffering from cardiovascular diseases were found to be more vulnerable to hot temperatures than cold temperatures. However, more patients admitted for cardiovascular diseases were attributable to cold temperatures in Brisbane compared with hot temperatures. This study contributes to the knowledge base about the association between temperature and morbidity. It is vitally important in the context of ongoing climate change. The findings of this study may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policy and strategic initiatives designed to reduce and prevent the burden of disease due to the impact of climate change.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

End-of-life care in the critical care setting : nurses' practices and factors affecting these practices

Background: Critical care units are designed and resourced to save lives, yet the provision of end-of-life care is a significant component of nursing work in these settings. Limited research has investigated the actual practices of critical care nurses in the provision of end-of-life care, or the factors influencing these practices. To improve the care that patients at the end of life and their families receive, and to support nurses in the provision of this care, further research is needed. The purpose of this study was to identify critical care nurses' end-of-life care practices, the factors influencing the provision of end-of-life care and the factors associated with specific end-of-life care practices. Methods: A three-phase exploratory sequential mixed-methods design was utilised. Phase one used a qualitative approach involving interviews with a convenience sample of five intensive care nurses to identify their end-of-life care experiences and practices. In phase two, an online survey instrument was developed, based on a review of the literature and the findings of phase one. The survey instrument was reviewed by six content experts and pilot tested with a convenience sample of 28 critical care nurses (response rate 45%) enrolled in a postgraduate critical care nursing subject. The refined survey instrument was used in phase three of this study to conduct a national survey of critical care nurses. Descriptive analyses, exploratory factor analysis and univariate general linear modelling was undertaken on completed survey responses from 392 critical care nurses (response rate 25%). Results: Six end-of-life care practice areas were identified in this study: information sharing, environmental modification, emotional support, patient and family-centred decision making, symptom management and spiritual support. The items most frequently identified as always undertaken by critical care nurses in the provision of end-of-life care were from the information sharing and environmental modification practice areas. Items least frequently identified as always undertaken included items from the emotional support practice area. Eight factors influencing the provision of end-of-life care were identified: palliative values, patient and family preferences, knowledge, preparedness, organisational culture, resources, care planning, and emotional support for nurses. Strong agreement was noted with items reflecting values consistent with a palliative approach and inclusion of patient and family preferences. Variation was noted in agreement for items regarding opportunities for knowledge acquisition in the workplace and formal education, yet most respondents agreed that they felt adequately prepared. A context of nurse-led practice was identified, with variation in access to resources noted. Collegial support networks were identified as a source of emotional support for critical care nurses. Critical care nurses reporting values consistent with a palliative approach and/or those who scored higher on support for patient and family preferences were more likely to be engaged in end-of-life care practice areas identified in this study. Nurses who reported higher levels of preparedness and access to opportunities for knowledge acquisition were more likely to report engaging in interpersonal practices that supported patient and family centred decision making and emotional support of patients and their families. A negative relationship was identified between the explanatory variables of emotional support for nurses and death anxiety, and the patient and family centred decision making practice area. Contextual factors had a limited influence as explanatory variables of specific end-of-life care practice areas. Gender was identified as a significant explanatory variable in the emotional and spiritual support practice areas, with male gender associated with lower summated scores on these practice scales. Conclusions: Critical care nurses engage in practices to share control with and support inclusion of families experiencing death and dying. The most frequently identified end-of-life care practices were those that are easily implemented, practical strategies aimed at supporting the patient at the end of life and the patient's family. These practices arguably require less emotional engagement by the nurse. Critical care nurses' responses reflected values consistent with a palliative approach and a strong commitment to the inclusion of families in end-of-life care, and these factors were associated with engagement in all end-of-life care practice areas. Perceived preparedness or confidence with the provision of end-of-life care was associated with engagement in interpersonal caring practices. Critical care nurses autonomously engage in the provision of end-of-life care within the constraints of an environment designed for curative care and rely on their colleagues for emotional support. Critical care nurses must be adequately prepared and supported to provide comprehensive care in all areas of end-of-life care practice. The findings of this study raise important implications, and informed recommendations for practice, education and further research.

A methodology for estimating exposure-controlled crash risk using traffic Police crash data

Exposure control or case-control methodologies are common techniques for estimating crash risks, however they require either observational data on control cases or exogenous exposure data, such as vehicle-kilometres travelled. This study proposes an alternative methodology for estimating crash risk of road user groups, whilst controlling for exposure under a variety of roadway, traffic and environmental factors by using readily available police-reported crash data. In particular, the proposed method employs a combination of a log-linear model and quasi-induced exposure technique to identify significant interactions among a range of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions to estimate associated crash risks. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a set of police-reported crash data from January 2004 to June 2009 on roadways in Queensland, Australia. Exposure-controlled crash risks of motorcyclists—involved in multi-vehicle crashes at intersections—were estimated under various combinations of variables like posted speed limit, intersection control type, intersection configuration, and lighting condition. Results show that the crash risk of motorcycles at three-legged intersections is high if the posted speed limits along the approaches are greater than 60 km/h. The crash risk at three-legged intersections is also high when they are unsignalized. Dark lighting conditions appear to increase the crash risk of motorcycles at signalized intersections, but the problem of night time conspicuity of motorcyclists at intersections is lessened on approaches with lower speed limits. This study demonstrates that this combined methodology is a promising tool for gaining new insights into the crash risks of road user groups, and is transferrable to other road users.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions

Background Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. Objective To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003–2009. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0–4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10–14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Conclusions As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.