How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Development of a particle number and particle mass emissions inventory for an urban fleet : a study in South-East Queensland

Motor vehicles are a major source of gaseous and particulate matter pollution in urban areas, particularly of ultrafine sized particles (diameters < 0.1 µm). Exposure to particulate matter has been found to be associated with serious health effects, including respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Particle emissions generated by motor vehicles span a very broad size range (from around 0.003-10 µm) and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, there exist scientific challenges in analysing and interpreting the large data sets on motor vehicle emission factors, and no understanding is available of the application of different particle metrics as a basis for air quality regulation. To date a comprehensive inventory covering the broad size range of particles emitted by motor vehicles, and which includes particle number, does not exist anywhere in the world. This thesis covers research related to four important and interrelated aspects pertaining to particulate matter generated by motor vehicle fleets. These include the derivation of suitable particle emission factors for use in transport modelling and health impact assessments; quantification of motor vehicle particle emission inventories; investigation of the particle characteristic modality within particle size distributions as a potential for developing air quality regulation; and review and synthesis of current knowledge on ultrafine particles as it relates to motor vehicles; and the application of these aspects to the quantification, control and management of motor vehicle particle emissions. In order to quantify emissions in terms of a comprehensive inventory, which covers the full size range of particles emitted by motor vehicle fleets, it was necessary to derive a suitable set of particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM1 (mass concentration of particles with aerodynamic diameters < 1 µm, < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm respectively). The very large data set of emission factors analysed in this study were sourced from measurement studies conducted in developed countries, and hence the derived set of emission factors are suitable for preparing inventories in other urban regions of the developed world. These emission factors are particularly useful for regions with a lack of measurement data to derive emission factors, or where experimental data are available but are of insufficient scope. The comprehensive particle emissions inventory presented in this thesis is the first published inventory of tailpipe particle emissions prepared for a motor vehicle fleet, and included the quantification of particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted by vehicles, based on measurement data. The inventory quantified particle emissions measured in terms of particle number and different particle mass size fractions. It was developed for the urban South-East Queensland fleet in Australia, and included testing the particle emission implications of future scenarios for different passenger and freight travel demand. The thesis also presents evidence of the usefulness of examining modality within particle size distributions as a basis for developing air quality regulations; and finds evidence to support the relevance of introducing a new PM1 mass ambient air quality standard for the majority of environments worldwide. The study found that a combination of PM1 and PM10 standards are likely to be a more discerning and suitable set of ambient air quality standards for controlling particles emitted from combustion and mechanically-generated sources, such as motor vehicles, than the current mass standards of PM2.5 and PM10. The study also reviewed and synthesized existing knowledge on ultrafine particles, with a specific focus on those originating from motor vehicles. It found that motor vehicles are significant contributors to both air pollution and ultrafine particles in urban areas, and that a standardized measurement procedure is not currently available for ultrafine particles. The review found discrepancies exist between outcomes of instrumentation used to measure ultrafine particles; that few data is available on ultrafine particle chemistry and composition, long term monitoring; characterization of their spatial and temporal distribution in urban areas; and that no inventories for particle number are available for motor vehicle fleets. This knowledge is critical for epidemiological studies and exposure-response assessment. Conclusions from this review included the recommendation that ultrafine particles in populated urban areas be considered a likely target for future air quality regulation based on particle number, due to their potential impacts on the environment. The research in this PhD thesis successfully integrated the elements needed to quantify and manage motor vehicle fleet emissions, and its novelty relates to the combining of expertise from two distinctly separate disciplines - from aerosol science and transport modelling. The new knowledge and concepts developed in this PhD research provide never before available data and methods which can be used to develop comprehensive, size-resolved inventories of motor vehicle particle emissions, and air quality regulations to control particle emissions to protect the health and well-being of current and future generations.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Europe and the Media: Building a new kind of Europe; is mass media the key?

The book is a joint effort of eight academics and journalists, Europe specialists from six countries (Australia, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, the United Kingdom and the United States). They give sometimes divergent views on the future of the so-called “European Project”, for building a common European economy and society, but agree that cultural changes, especially changes experienced through mass media, are rapidly taking place. One of the central interests of the book is the operation of the large media centre located at the European Commission in Brussels – the world’s largest gallery of permanently accredited correspondents. Jacket notes: The Lisbon Treaty of December 2009 is the latest success of the European Union’s drive to restructure and expand; yet questions persist about how democratic this new Europe might be. Will Brussels’ promotion of the “European idea” produce a common European culture and society? The authors consider it might, as a culture of everyday shared experience, though old ways are cherished, citizens forever thinking twice about committing to an uncertain future. The book focuses on mass media , as a prime agent of change, sometimes used deliberately to promote a “European project”; sometimes acting more naturally as a medium for new agendas. It looks at proposed media models for Europe, ranging from not very successful pan-European television, to the potentials of media systems based on national markets, and new media based on digital formats. It also studies the Brussels media service, the centre operated by the European Commission, which is the world’s largest concentration of journalists; and ways that dominant national media may come to serve the interests of communities now extending across frontiers. Europe and the Media notes change especially as encountered by new EU member countries of central and eastern Europe.

The rate-limiting mechanism for the heterogeneous burning of cylindrical iron rods

This paper presents the findings of an investigation into the rate-limiting mechanism for the heterogeneous burning in oxygen under normal gravity and microgravity of cylindrical iron rods. The original objective of the work was to determine why the observed melting rate for burning 3.2-mm diameter iron rods is significantly higher in microgravity than in normal gravity. This work, however, also provided fundamental insight into the rate-limiting mechanism for heterogeneous burning. The paper includes a summary of normal-gravity and microgravity experimental results, heat transfer analysis and post-test microanalysis of quenched samples. These results are then used to show that heat transfer across the solid/liquid interface is the rate-limiting mechanism for melting and burning, limited by the interfacial surface area between the molten drop and solid rod. In normal gravity, the work improves the understanding of trends reported during standard flammability testing for metallic materials, such as variations in melting rates between test specimens with the same cross-sectional area but different crosssectional shape. The work also provides insight into the effects of configuration and orientation, leading to an improved application of standard test results in the design of oxygen system components. For microgravity applications, the work enables the development of improved methods for lower cost metallic material flammability testing programs. In these ways, the work provides fundamental insight into the heterogeneous burning process and contributes to improved fire safety for oxygen systems in applications involving both normal-gravity and microgravity environments.

A proposed qualitative framework for heterogeneous burning of metallic materials : the 'melting rate triangle'

This paper presents a proposed qualitative framework to discuss the heterogeneous burning of metallic materials, through parameters and factors that influence the melting rate of the solid metallic fuel (either in a standard test or in service). During burning, the melting rate is related to the burning rate and is therefore an important parameter for describing and understanding the burning process, especially since the melting rate is commonly recorded during standard flammability testing for metallic materials and is incorporated into many relative flammability ranking schemes. However, whilst the factors that influence melting rate (such as oxygen pressure or specimen diameter) have been well characterized, there is a need for an improved understanding of how these parameters interact as part of the overall melting and burning of the system. Proposed here is the ‘Melting Rate Triangle’, which aims to provide this focus through a conceptual framework for understanding how the melting rate (of solid fuel) is determined and regulated during heterogeneous burning. In the paper, the proposed conceptual model is shown to be both (a) consistent with known trends and previously observed results, and (b)capable of being expanded to incorporate new data. Also shown are examples of how the Melting Rate Triangle can improve the interpretation of flammability test results. Slusser and Miller previously published an ‘Extended Fire Triangle’ as a useful conceptual model of ignition and the factors affecting ignition, providing industry with a framework for discussion. In this paper it is shown that a ‘Melting Rate Triangle’ provides a similar qualitative framework for burning, leading to an improved understanding of the factors affecting fire propagation and extinguishment.

Use of micro-ATR/FTIR imaging to study heterogeneous polymer oxidation by direct solvent casting onto the ATR IRE

A technique is described whereby micro-ATR/FTIR imaging can be used to follow polymer degradation reactions in situ in real time. The internal reflection element (IRE) assembly is removed from the ATR objective and polymer is solvent cast directly onto the IRE surface. The polymer is then subjected to degradation conditions and molecular structural changes monitored by periodically replacing the IRE assembly back in the ATR objective and collecting spectra which can be used to construct images. This approach has the benefit that the same part of the sample is always studied, and that contact by pressure which might damage the polymer surface is not required. The technique is demonstrated using the polymer Topas which was degraded by exposure to UVC light in air.

Dynamic analysis of on-board mass data to determine tampering in heavy vehicle on-board mass systems

Transport Certification Australia Limited, jointly with the National Transport Commission, has undertaken a project to investigate the feasibility of on-board mass monitoring (OBM) devices for regulatory purposes. OBM increases jurisdictional confidence in operational heavy vehicle compliance. This paper covers technical issues regarding potential use of dynamic data from OBM systems to indicate that tampering has occurred. Tamper-evidence and accuracy of current OBM systems needed to be determined before any regulatory schemes were put in place for its use. Tests performed to determine potential for, and ease of, tampering. An algorithm was developed to detect tamper events. Its results are detailed.

Thermogravimetric analysis-mass spectrometry (TG-MS) of selected Chinese kaolinites

Thermogravimetric analysis-mass spectrometry, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were used to characterize eight kaolinite samples from China. The results show that the thermal decomposition occurs in three main steps (a) desorption of water below 100 °C, (b) dehydration at about 225 °C, (c) well defined dehydroxylation at around 450 °C. It is also found that decarbonization took place at 710 °C due to the decomposition of calcite impurity in kaolin. The temperature of dehydroxylation of kaolinite is found to be influenced by the degree of disorder of the kaolinite structure and the gases evolved in the decomposition process can be various because of the different amount and kinds of impurities. It is evident by the mass spectra that the interlayer carbonate from impurity of calcite and organic carbon is released as CO2 around 225, 350 and 710 °C in the kaolinite samples.

Static accuracy and precision of heavy vehicle on-board mass systems

Objective • Feasibility programme for on-board mass (OBM) monitoring of heavy vehicles (HVs) • Australian road authorities through Transport Certification Australia (TCA) • Accuracy of contemporary, commercially-available OBM units in Australia • Results need to be addressed/incorporated into specifications for Stage 2 of Intelligent Access Program (IAP) by Transport Certification Australia

Effect of poly(acrylic acid) molecular mass and end-group functionality on calcium oxalate crystal morphology and growth

A number of series of poly(acrylic acids) (PAA) of differing end-groups and molecular mass were used to study the inhibition of calcium oxalate crystallization. The effects of the end-group on crystal speciation and morphology were significant and dramatic, with hexyl-isobutyrate end groups giving preferential formation of calcium oxalate dihydrate (COD) rather than the more stable calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM), while both more hydrophobic end-groups and less-hydrophobic end groups led predominantly to formation of the least thermodynamically stable form of calcium oxalate, calcium oxalate trihydrate. Conversely, molecular mass had little impact on calcium oxalate speciation or crystal morphology. It is probable that the observed effects are related to the rate of desorption of the PAA moiety from the crystal (lite) surfaces and that the results point to a major role for end-group as well as molecular mass in controlling desorption rate.