How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Natural enemies of Paropsis atomaria Olivier (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in south-eastern Queensland eucalypt plantations

Abstract A field survey for natural enemies of Paropsis atomaria was conducted at two south-eastern Queensland Eucalyptus cloeziana plantation sites during 2004–2005. Primary egg and larval parasitoids and associated hyperparasitoids were identified to genus or species, and parasitism rates were determined throughout the season. Predators were identified to family level but their impact was not quantified. P. atomaria adults were also examined as potential hosts for parasitic mites and nematodes. An undescribed species of Neopolycystus (Pteromalidae) was the major primary egg parasitoid species reared from egg batches, parasitising half of all egg batches collected. Three hyperparasitoid species (Baeoanusia albifunicle (Encyrtidae), Neblatticida sp. (Encyrtidae) and Aphaneromella sp. (Platygasteridae) were present, representing around one-quarter to one-third of all emergent wasps; this is the first host association record for Neopolycystus–B. albifunicle. In contrast to populations of P. atomaria from the Australian Capital Territory, primary larval parasitism was very low, around 1%, and attributable only to the tachinid flies Anagonia sp. and Paropsivora sp. However, the presence of the sit-and-wait larval hyperparasitoid, Perilampus sp. (Perilampidae) was high, emerging from around 17% of tachinid pupae, with planidia infesting a further 40% of unparasitised hosts. Three species of podapolipid mites parasitised sexually mature P. atomaria adults, while no nematodes were found in this study. Spiders were the most common predators and their abundance was positively correlated with P. atomaria adult and egg numbers. Although natural enemy species composition was identical between our two study sites, significant differences in abundance and frequency were found between sites

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

The statistics of refractive error maps : managing wavefront aberration analysis without Zernike polynomials

The refractive error of a human eye varies across the pupil and therefore may be treated as a random variable. The probability distribution of this random variable provides a means for assessing the main refractive properties of the eye without the necessity of traditional functional representation of wavefront aberrations. To demonstrate this approach, the statistical properties of refractive error maps are investigated. Closed-form expressions are derived for the probability density function (PDF) and its statistical moments for the general case of rotationally-symmetric aberrations. A closed-form expression for a PDF for a general non-rotationally symmetric wavefront aberration is difficult to derive. However, for specific cases, such as astigmatism, a closed-form expression of the PDF can be obtained. Further, interpretation of the distribution of the refractive error map as well as its moments is provided for a range of wavefront aberrations measured in real eyes. These are evaluated using a kernel density and sample moments estimators. It is concluded that the refractive error domain allows non-functional analysis of wavefront aberrations based on simple statistics in the form of its sample moments. Clinicians may find this approach to wavefront analysis easier to interpret due to the clinical familiarity and intuitive appeal of refractive error maps.

Describing ocular aberrations with wavefront vergence maps

A common optometric problem is to specify the eye’s ocular aberrations in terms of Zernike coefficients and to reduce that specification to a prescription for the optimum sphero-cylindrical correcting lens. The typical approach is first to reconstruct wavefront phase errors from measurements of wavefront slopes obtained by a wavefront aberrometer. This paper applies a new method to this clinical problem that does not require wavefront reconstruction. Instead, we base our analysis of axial wavefront vergence as inferred directly from wavefront slopes. The result is a wavefront vergence map that is similar to the axial power maps in corneal topography and hence has a potential to be favoured by clinicians. We use our new set of orthogonal Zernike slope polynomials to systematically analyse details of the vergence map analogous to Zernike analysis of wavefront maps. The result is a vector of slope coefficients that describe fundamental aberration components. Three different methods for reducing slope coefficients to a spherocylindrical prescription in power vector forms are compared and contrasted. When the original wavefront contains only second order aberrations, the vergence map is a function of meridian only and the power vectors from all three methods are identical. The differences in the methods begin to appear as we include higher order aberrations, in which case the wavefront vergence map is more complicated. Finally, we discuss the advantages and limitations of vergence map representation of ocular aberrations.

Juvenile justice in Queensland and Canada : new legislation reflecting new directions

Due to their similar colonial histories and common law heritage, Australia and Canada provide an ideal comparative context for examining legislation reflecting new directions in the field of juvenile justice. Toward this end, this article compares the revised juvenile justice legislation which came into force in Queensland and Canada in 2003 (Canada, Youth Criminal Justice Act, enacted on 19 February 2002 and proclaimed in force 1 April 2003; Queensland, Juvenile Justice Act, amended 2003). There are a series of questions that could be addressed including: How similar and how sweeping have been the legislative changes introduced in each jurisdiction?; What are likely to be some of the effects of the implementation of these new legislative regimes?; and, how well does the legislation enacted in either jurisdiction address the fundamental difficulties experienced by children who have been caught up in juvenile justice systems? This article addresses mainly the first of these questions, offering a systematic comparison of recent Queensland and Canadian legislative changes. Although, due to the recentness of these changes, there is no data available to assess long-term effects, anecdotal evidence and preliminary research findings from our comparative study are offered to provide a start at answering the second question. We also offer critical yet sympathetic comments on the ability of legislation to address the fundamental difficulties experienced by children caught up in juvenile justice systems. Specifically, we conclude that while more than simple legislative responses are required to address the difficulties faced by youth offenders, and especially overrepresented Indigenous young offenders, the amended Queensland and new Canadian legislation appear to provide some needed reforms that can be used to help address some of these fundamental difficulties.

The Development of a Critical Thinking Conceptual Model to Enhance Critical Thinking Skills in Middle-Eastern Nurses: A Middle-Eastern Experience

This paper aims to describe the development of a critical thinking conceptual model which was constructed to guide the teaching and evaluation of critical thinking skills to Middle-Eastern nurses.

A framework guiding critical thinking through reflective journal documentation: A Middle Eastern experience

The purpose of this paper is to present a framework to guide critical thinking through reflective journaling, and describe how a group of 20 Middle Eastern nurses used reflective journaling to enhance their practice. Journal documentation was used during clinical practicum to foster the development of critical thinking in order to assist nurses when analysing and evaluating their clinical experiences. The findings from this study demonstrated that nurses accepted the framework for journal documentation because it provided structure for reflection, speculation, synthesis and metacognition of events experienced during clinical practice. Journaling gave nurses the opportunity to transfer thoughts onto paper and write down subjective and objective data, and created dialogue between the nurse educators and nurses. They were engaged in productive and positive activity to enhance their nursing practice. Nurses also commented that writing helped to develop their confidence in writing English.