Health impacts of floods

Introduction: Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. Objectives: The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. Methods: This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. Results: The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the mediumterm, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. Conclusions: This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.

Aligning communication, cultural and media studies research and scholarship with industry and policy : Australian instances

This article reflects on aspects of what is claimed to be the distinctiveness of Australian communication, cultural and media studies, focusing on two cases – the cultural policy debate in the 1990s, and the concept of creative industries in the 2000s – and the relations between them, which highlight the alignment of research and scholarship with industry and policy and with which the author has been directly involved. Both ‘moments’ have been controversial; the three main lines of critique of such alignment of research and scholarship with industry and policy (its untoward proximity to tenets of the dominant neo-liberal ideology; the evacuation of cultural value by the economic; and the possible loss of critical vocation of the humanities scholar) are debated.

Turbulent velocity and suspended sediment concentration measurements in an urban environment of the Brisbane River Flood Plain at Gardens Point on 12-13 January 2011

The flood flow in urbanised areas constitutes a major hazard to the population and infrastructure as seen during the summer 2010-2011 floods in Queensland (Australia). Flood flows in urban environments have been studied relatively recently, although no study considered the impact of turbulence in the flow. During the 12-13 January 2011 flood of the Brisbane River, some turbulence measurements were conducted in an inundated urban environment in Gardens Point Road next to Brisbane's central business district (CBD) at relatively high frequency (50 Hz). The properties of the sediment flood deposits were characterised and the acoustic Doppler velocimeter unit was calibrated to obtain both instantaneous velocity components and suspended sediment concentration in the same sampling volume with the same temporal resolution. While the flow motion in Gardens Point Road was subcritical, the water elevations and velocities fluctuated with a distinctive period between 50 and 80 s. The low frequency fluctuations were linked with some local topographic effects: i.e, some local choke induced by an upstream constriction between stairwells caused some slow oscillations with a period close to the natural sloshing period of the car park. The instantaneous velocity data were analysed using a triple decomposition, and the same triple decomposition was applied to the water depth, velocity flux, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment flux data. The velocity fluctuation data showed a large energy component in the slow fluctuation range. For the first two tests at z = 0.35 m, the turbulence data suggested some isotropy. At z = 0.083 m, on the other hand, the findings indicated some flow anisotropy. The suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data presented a general trend with increasing SSC for decreasing water depth. During a test (T4), some long -period oscillations were observed with a period about 18 minutes. The cause of these oscillations remains unknown to the authors. The last test (T5) took place in very shallow waters and high suspended sediment concentrations. It is suggested that the flow in the car park was disconnected from the main channel. Overall the flow conditions at the sampling sites corresponded to a specific momentum between 0.2 to 0.4 m2 which would be near the upper end of the scale for safe evacuation of individuals in flooded areas. But the authors do not believe the evacuation of individuals in Gardens Point Road would have been safe because of the intense water surges and flow turbulence. More generally any criterion for safe evacuation solely based upon the flow velocity, water depth or specific momentum cannot account for the hazards caused by the flow turbulence, water depth fluctuations and water surges.

Safety, feasibility and effects of an individualised walking intervention for women undergoing chemotherapy for ovarian cancer : a pilot study

Background: Exercise interventions during adjuvant cancer therapy have been shown to increase functional capacity, relieve fatigue and distress and may assist rates of chemotherapy completion. These studies have been limited to breast, gastric and mixed cancer groups and it is not yet known if a similar intervention is even feasible among women with ovarian cancer. We aimed to assess safety, feasibility and potential effect of a walking intervention in women undergoing chemotherapy for ovarian cancer. Methods: Women newly diagnosed with ovarian cancer were recruited to participate in an individualised walking intervention throughout chemotherapy and were assessed pre-and post-intervention. Feasibility measures included session adherence, compliance with exercise physiologist prescribed walking targets and self-reported program acceptability. Changes in objective physical functioning (6 minute walk test), self-reported distress (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), symptoms (Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale - Physical) and quality of life (Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Ovarian) were calculated, and chemotherapy completion and adverse intervention effects recorded. Results: Seventeen women were enrolled (63% recruitment rate). Mean age was 60 years (SD = 8 years), 88% were diagnosed with FIGO stage III or IV disease, 14 women underwent adjuvant and three neo-adjuvant chemotherapy. On average, women adhered to > 80% of their intervention sessions and complied with 76% of their walking targets, with the majority walking four days a week at moderate intensity for 30 minutes per session. Meaningful improvements were found in physical functioning, physical symptoms, physical well-being and ovarian cancerspecific quality of life. Most women (76%) completed ≥85% of their planned chemotherapy dose. There were no withdrawals or serious adverse events and all women reported the program as being helpful. Conclusions: These positive preliminary results suggest that this walking intervention for women receiving chemotherapy for ovarian cancer is safe, feasible and acceptable and could be used in development of future work. Trial registration: ACTRN12609000252213

The ghrelin signalling system is involved in the consumption of sweets

The gastric-derived orexigenic peptide ghrelin affects brain circuits involved in energy balance as well as in reward. Indeed, ghrelin activates an important reward circuit involved in natural- as well as drug-induced reward, the cholinergic-dopaminergic reward link. It has been hypothesized that there is a common reward mechanism for alcohol and sweet substances in both animals and humans. Alcohol dependent individuals have higher craving for sweets than do healthy controls and the hedonic response to sweet taste may, at least in part, depend on genetic factors. Rat selectively bred for high sucrose intake have higher alcohol consumption than non-sucrose preferring rats and vice versa. In the present study a group of alcohol-consuming individuals selected from a population cohort was investigated for genetic variants of the ghrelin signalling system in relation to both their alcohol and sucrose consumption. Moreover, the effects of GHS-R1A antagonism on voluntary sucrose- intake and operant self-administration, as well as saccharin intake were investigated in preclinical studies using rodents. The effects of peripheral grelin administration on sucrose intake were also examined. Here we found associations with the ghrelin gene haplotypes and increased sucrose consumption, and a trend for the same association was seen in the high alcohol consumers. The preclinical data show that a GHS-R1A antagonist reduces the intake and self-administration of sucrose in rats as well as saccharin intake in mice. Further, ghrelin increases the intake of sucrose in rats. Collectively, our data provide a clear indication that the GHS-R1A antagonists reduces and ghrelin increases the intake of rewarding substances and hence, the central ghrelin signalling system provides a novel target for the development of drug strategies to treat addictive behaviours. © 2011 Landgren et al.

H. pylori-infection and antibody immune response in a rural Tanzanian population

Abstract Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is ubiquitous in sub-Saharan Africa, but paradoxically gastric cancer is rare. Methods: Sera collected during a household-based survey in rural Tanzania in 1985 were tested for anti-H. pylori IgG and IgG subclass antibodies by enzyme immunoassay. Odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) of association of seropositivity with demographic variables were computed by logistic regression models. Results: Of 788 participants, 513 were aged ≤17 years. H. pylori seropositivity increased from 76% at 0–4 years to 99% by ≥18 years of age. Seropositivity was associated with age (OR 11.5, 95% CI 4.2–31.4 for 10–17 vs. 0–4 years), higher birth-order (11.1; 3.6–34.1 for ≥3rd vs. 1st born), and having a seropositive next-older sibling (2.7; 0.9–8.3). Median values of IgG subclass were 7.2 for IgG1 and 2.0 for IgG2. The median IgG1/IgG2 ratio was 3.1 (IQR: 1.7–5.6), consistent with a Th2- dominant immune profile. Th2-dominant response was more frequent in children than adults (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3–4.4). Conclusion: H. pylori seropositivity was highly prevalent in Tanzania and the immunological response was Th2-dominant. Th2-dominant immune response, possibly caused by concurrent bacterial or parasitic infections, could explain, in part, the lower risk of H. pylori-associated gastric cancer in Africa.

The roles of the preproghrelin-derived peptides - ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin and obestatin - in prostate cancer

Prostate cancer is the second most common cause of cancer related deaths in Western men. Despite the significant improvements in current treatment techniques, there is no cure for advanced metastatic, castrate-resistant disease. Early detection and prevention of progression to a castrate-resistant state may provide new strategies to improve survival. A number of growth factors have been shown to act in an autocrine/paracrine manner to modulate prostate cancer tumour growth. Our laboratory has previously shown that ghrelin and its receptors (the functional GHS-R1a and the non-functional GHS-R1b) are expressed in prostate cancer specimens and cell lines. We have shown that ghrelin increases cell proliferation in the PC3 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell lines through activation of ERK1/2, suggesting that ghrelin could regulate prostate cancer cell growth and play a role in the progression of the disease. Ghrelin is a 28 amino-acid peptide hormone, identified to be the natural ligand of the growth hormone secretagogue receptor (GHS-R1a). It is well characterised as a growth hormone releasing and as an orexigenic peptide that stimulates appetite and feeding and regulates energy expenditure and bodyweight. In addition to its orexigenic properties, ghrelin has been shown to play a regulatory role in a number of systems, including the reproductive, immune and cardiovascular systems and may play a role in a number of pathological conditions such as chronic heart failure, anorexia, cachexia, obesity, diabetes and cancer. In cancer, ghrelin and its receptor are expressed in a range of tumours and cancer cell lines and ghrelin has been demonstrated to modulate cell proliferation, apoptosis, migration and invasion in some cell types. The ghrelin gene (GHRL) encodes preproghrelin peptide, which is processed to produce three currently known functional peptides - ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin and obestatin. Prohormone convertases (PCs) have been shown to cleave the preproghrelin peptide into two primary products - the 28 amino acid peptide, ghrelin, and the remaining 117 amino acid C-terminal peptide, C-ghrelin. C-ghrelin can then be further processed to produce the 23 amino acid peptide, obestatin. Ghrelin circulates in two different forms - an octanoylated form (known as ghrelin) and a non-octanoylated form, desacyl ghrelin. The unique post-translational addition of octanoic acid to the serine 3 residue of the propeptide chain to form acylated ghrelin is catalysed by ghrelin O-acyltransferase (GOAT). This modification is necessary for binding of ghrelin to its only known functional receptor, the GHS-R1a. As desacyl ghrelin cannot bind and activate the GHS-R1a, it was initially thought to be an inactive peptide, despite the fact that it circulates at much higher levels than ghrelin. Further research has demonstrated that desacyl ghrelin is biologically active and shares some of the actions of ghrelin, as well as having some opposing and distinct roles. Interestingly, both ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin have been shown to modulate apoptosis, cell differentiation and proliferation in some cell types, and to stimulate cell proliferation through activation of ERK1/2 and PI3K/Akt pathways. The third known peptide product of the ghrelin preprohormone, obestatin, was initially thought to oppose the actions of ghrelin in appetite regulation and food intake and to mediate its effects through the G protein-coupled receptor 39 (GPR39). Subsequent research failed to reproduce the initial findings, however, and the possible anorexigenic effects of obestatin, as well as the identity of its receptor, remain unclear. Obestatin plays some important physiological roles, including roles in improving memory, the inhibition of thirst and anxiety, increased secretion of pancreatic juice, and regulation of cell proliferation, survival, apoptosis and differentiation. Preliminary studies have also shown that obestatin stimulates cell proliferation in some cell types through activation of ERK1/2, Akt and PKC pathways. Overall, however, at the commencement of this PhD project, relatively little was known regarding the functions and mechanisms of action of the preproghrelin-derived functional peptides in modulating prostate cancer cell proliferation. The roles of obestatin, and desacyl ghrelin as potential growth factors had not previously been investigated, and the potential expression and regulation of the preproghrelin processing enzymes, GOAT and prohormone convertases was unknown in prostate cancer cell lines. Therefore, the overall objectives of this study were to: 1. investigate the effects of obestatin on cell proliferation and signaling in prostate cancer cell lines 2. compare the effects of desacyl ghrelin and ghrelin on cell proliferation and signaling in prostate cancer cell lines 3. investigate whether prostate cancer cell lines possess the necessary enzymatic machinery to produce ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin and if these peptides can regulate GOAT expression Our laboratory has previously shown that ghrelin stimulates cell proliferation in the PC3 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell line through activation of the ERK1/2 pathway. In this study it has been demonstrated that treatments with either ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin or obestatin over 72 hours significantly increased cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line but had no significant effect in the RWPE-1 transformed normal prostate cell line. Ghrelin (1000nM) stimulated cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line by 31.66 6.68% (p<0.01) with the WST-1 method, and 13.55 5.68% (p<0.05) with the CyQUANT assay. Desacyl ghrelin (1000nM) increased cell proliferation in PC3 cells by 21.73 2.62% (p<0.01) (WST-1), and 15.46 7.05% (p<0.05) (CyQUANT) above untreated control. Obestatin (1000nM) induced a 28.37 7.47% (p<0.01) (WST-1) and 12.14 7.47% (p<0.05) (CyQUANT) significant increase in cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line. Ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin treatments stimulated Akt and ERK phosphorylation across a range of concentrations (p<0.01). Obestatin treatment significantly stimulated Akt, ERK and PKC phosphorylation (p<0.05). Through the use of specific inhibitors, the MAPK inhibitor U0126 and the Akt1/2 kinase inhibitor, it was demonstrated that ghrelin- and obestatin-induced cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line is mediated through activation of ERK1/2 and Akt pathways. Although desacyl ghrelin significantly stimulated Akt and ERK phosphorylation, U0126 failed to prevent desacyl ghrelin-induced cell proliferation suggesting ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin might act through different mechanisms to increase cell proliferation. Ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin have shown a proliferative effect in osteoblasts, pancreatic -cells and cardiomyocytes through activation of ERK1/2 and PI3K/Akt pathways. Here it has been shown that ghrelin and its non-acylated form exert the same function and stimulate cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line through activation of the Akt pathway. Ghrelin-induced proliferation was also mediated through activation of the ERK1/2 pathway, however, desacyl ghrelin seems to stimulate cell proliferation in an ERK1/2-independent manner. As desacyl ghrelin does not bind and activate GHSR1a, the only known functional ghrelin receptor, the finding that both ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin stimulate cell proliferation in the PC3 cell line suggests that these peptides could be acting through the yet unidentified alternative ghrelin receptor in this cell type. Obestatin treatment also stimulated PKC phosphorylation, however, a direct role for this pathway in stimulating cell proliferation could not be proven using available PKC pathway inhibitors, as they caused significant cell death over the extended timeframe of the cell proliferation assays. Obestatin has been shown to stimulate cell proliferation through activation of PKC isoforms in human retinal epithelial cells and in the human gastric cancer cell line KATO-III. We have demonstrated that all of the prostate-derived cell lines examined (PC3, LNCaP, DU145, 22Rv1, RWPE-1 and RWPE-2) expressed GOAT and at least one of the prohormone convertases, which are known to cleave the proghrelin peptide, PC1/3, PC2 and furin, at the mRNA level. These cells, therefore, are likely to possess the necessary machinery to cleave the preproghrelin protein and to produce the mature ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin peptides. In addition to prohormone convertases, the presence of octanoic acid is essential for acylated ghrelin production. In this study octanoic acid supplementation significantly increased cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line by over 20% compared to untreated controls (p<0.01), but surprisingly, not in the DU145, LNCaP or 22Rv1 prostate cancer cell lines or in the RWPE-1 and RWPE-2 prostate-derived cell lines. In addition, we demonstrated that exogenous ghrelin induced a statistically significant two-fold decrease in GOAT mRNA expression in the PC3 cell line (p<0.05), suggesting that ghrelin could pontentially downregulate its own acylation and, therefore, regulate the balance between ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin. This was not observed, however, in the DU145 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell lines. The GOAT-ghrelin system represents a direct link between ingested nutrients and regulation of ghrelin production and the ghrelin/desacyl ghrelin ratio. Regulation of ghrelin acylation is a potentially attractive and desirable tool for the development of better therapies for a number of pathological conditions where ghrelin has been shown to play a key role. The finding that desacyl ghrelin stimulates cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line, and responds to ghrelin in the same way, suggests that this cell line expresses an alternative ghrelin receptor. Although all the cell lines examined expressed both GHS-R1a and GHS-R1b mRNA, it remains uncertain whether these cell lines express the unidentified alternative ghrelin receptor. It is possible that the varied responses seen could be due to the expression of different ghrelin receptors in different cell lines. In addition to GOAT, prohormone convertases and octanoic acid availability may regulate the production of different peptides from the ghrelin preprohormone. The studies presented in this thesis provide significant new information regarding the roles and mechanisms of action of the preproghrelin-derived peptides, ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin and obestatin, in modulating prostate cancer cell line proliferation. A number of key questions remain to be resolved, however, including the identification of the alternative ghrelin/desacyl ghrelin receptor, the identification of the obestatin receptor, a clarification of the signaling mechanisms which mediate cell proliferation in response to obestatin treatment and a better understanding of the regulation at both the gene and post-translational levels of functional peptide generation. Further studies investigating the role of the ghrelin axis using in vivo prostate cancer models may be warranted. Until these issues are determined, the potential for the ghrelin axis, to be recognised as a novel useful target for therapy for cancer or other pathologies will be uncertain.

Bariatric surgery or medicine for type 2 diabetes?

Diet and medical treatment are the standard treatment for type 2 diabetes. In obese subjects with type 2 diabetes, bariatric surgery is effective in resolving diabetes. Two clinical trials comparing bariatric surgery to medical treatment were evaluated. Both the Surgical Treatment And Medications Potentially Eradicate Diabetes Efficiently (STAMPEDE) trial (laparoscopic Roux-En Y gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy) and the DIet and medical therapy versus BAriatric SurgerY in type 2 diabetes (DIBASY) trial (laparoscopic gastric bypass and biliopancreatic-diversion) showed that surgery was more effective than medical care in resolving or managing type 2 diabetes. Larger studies, or a compilation of studies, are needed to determine whether one of these procedures is better, or if they are all similarly effective, and this should also be weighed against the risk of the operations.

Exercise, appetite and weight management: understanding the compensatory responses in eating behaviour and how they contribute to variability in exercise-induced weight loss

Does exercise promote weight loss? One of the key problems with studies assessing the efficacy of exercise as a method of weight management and obesityis that mean data are presented and the individual variability in response is overlooked. Recent data have highlighted the need to demonstrate and characterise the individual variability in response to exercise. Do people who exercise compensate for the increase in energy expenditure via compensatory increases in hunger and food intake? The authors address the physiological, psychological and behavioural factors potentially involved in the relationship between exercise and appetite, and identify the research questions that remain unanswered. A negative consequence of the phenomena of individual variability and compensatory responses has been the focus on those who lose little weight in response to exercise; this has been used unreasonably as evidence to suggest that exercise is a futile method of controlling weight and managing obesity. Most of the evidence suggests that exercise is useful for improving body composition and health. For example, when exercise-induced mean weight loss is <1.0 kg, significant improvements in aerobic capacity (+6.3 ml/kg/min), systolic (−6.00 mm Hg) and diastolic (−3.9 mm Hg) blood pressure, waist circumference (−3.7 cm) and positive mood still occur. However, people will vary in their responses to exercise; understanding and characterising this variability will help tailor weight loss strategies to suit individuals.

Involvement of KLF4 in sulforaphane- and iberin-mediated induction of p21waf1/cip1

Sulforaphane (SF; 4-methylsulfinylbutyl isothiocyanate), a dietary compound derived from broccoli, may exhibit chemopreventive properties by inducing cell cycle arrest via induction of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1A (p21(waf1/cip1)), but the exact molecular mechanism has not been determined. Here we evaluate the role of the transcription factor Kruppel-like factor 4 (KLF4) in mediating the induction of p21(waf1/cip1) and cellular differentiation by SF and iberin (IB; 3-methylsulphinyl propyl isothiocyanate), also derived from broccoli. Exposure of Caco-2 and Caco-2/TC7 cells to SF and IB increased expression of both KLF4 and p21(waf1/cip1), whereas exposure of HT29 cells resulted only in induction of p21(waf1/cip1). In Caco-2 cells, small interfering RNA knock down of KLF4 expression attenuated induction of p21(waf1/cip1) in response to either SF or IB treatment. Contrary to expectation, prolonged exposure to SF reduced sucrase isomaltase activity, a marker of small intestinal differentiation in Caco-2 cells. Additional support for the SF-mediated induction of p21(waf1/cip1) by KLF4 was obtained from analyses of gastric tissue of Apc(Min/+) mice following acute intervention with SF but not from the analyses of other tissue of the intestinal tract. These results suggest that induction of p21(waf1/cip1) by SF or IB may be partly mediated by KLF4 in some colon cancer cells and tissues.

Application of a digital elevation model for flood modeling for the Pagsangaan River in Leyte

Flood related scientific and community-based data are rarely systematically collected and analysed in the Philippines. Over the last decades the Pagsangaan River Basin, Leyte, has experienced several flood events. However, documentation describing flood characteristics such as extent, duration or height of these floods are close to non-existing. To address this issue, computerized flood modelling was used to reproduce past events where there was data available for at least partial calibration and validation. The model was also used to provide scenario-based predictions based on A1B climate change assumptions for the area. The most important input for flood modelling is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the river basin. No accurate topographic maps or Light Detection And Ranging (LIDAR)-generated data are available for the Pagsangaan River. Therefore, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), Version 1, was chosen as the DEM. Although the horizontal spatial resolution of 30 m is rather desirable, it contains substantial vertical errors. These were identified, different correction methods were tested and the resulting DEM was used for flood modelling. The above mentioned data were combined with cross-sections at various strategic locations of the river network, meteorological records, river water level, and current velocity to develop the 1D-2D flood model. SOBEK was used as modelling software to create different rainfall scenarios, including historic flooding events. Due to the lack of scientific data for the verification of the model quality, interviews with local stakeholders served as the gauge to judge the quality of the generated flood maps. According to interviewees, the model reflects reality more accurately than previously available flood maps. The resulting flood maps are now used by the operations centre of a local flood early warning system for warnings and evacuation alerts. Furthermore these maps can serve as a basis to identify flood hazard areas for spatial land use planning purposes.

Association between ambient ultraviolet radiation and risk of esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVES: Ecological studies have suggested an inverse relationship between latitude and risks of some cancers. However, associations between solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and esophageal cancer risk have not been fully explored. We therefore investigated the association between nevi, freckles, and measures of ambient UVR over the life-course with risks of esophageal cancers. METHODS: We compared estimated lifetime residential ambient UVR among Australian patients with esophageal cancer (330 esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), 386 esophago-gastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC), and 279 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC)), and 1471 population controls. We asked people where they had lived at different periods of their life, and assigned ambient UVR to each location based on measurements from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer database. Freckling and nevus burden were self-reported. We used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the magnitude of associations between phenotype, ambient UVR, and esophageal cancer risk. RESULTS: Compared with population controls, patients with EAC and EGJAC were less likely to have high levels of estimated cumulative lifetime ambient UVR (EAC odds ratio (OR) 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-0.99, EGJAC OR 0.55, 0.34-0.90). We found no association between UVR and risk of ESCC (OR 0.91, 0.51-1.64). The associations were independent of age, sex, body mass index, education, state of recruitment, frequency of reflux, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and H. pylori serostatus. Cases with EAC were also significantly less likely to report high levels of nevi than controls. CONCLUSIONS: These data show an inverse association between ambient solar UVR at residential locations and risk of EAC and EGJAC, but not ESCC.

A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope

Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

Fire safety of buildings based on realistic fire time-temperature curves

In recent times, fire has become a major disaster in buildings due to the increase in fire loads, as a result of modern furniture and light weight construction. This has caused problems for safe evacuation and rescue activities, and in some instances lead to the collapse of buildings (Lewis, 2008 and Nyman, 2002). Recent research has shown that the actual fire resistance of building elements exposed to building fires can be less than their specified fire resistance rating (Lennon and Moore, 2003, Jones, 2002, Nyman, 2002 and Abecassis-Empis et al. 2008). Conventionally the fire rating of building elements is determined using fire tests based on the standard fire time-temperature curve given in ISO 834. This ISO 834 curve was developed in the early 1900s, where wood was the basic fuel source. In reality, modern buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. These materials are high in calorific values and increase both the speed of fire growth and heat release rate, thus increasing the fire severity beyond that of the standard fire curve. Hence it suggests the need to use realistic fire time-temperature curves in tests. Real building fire temperature profiles depend on the fuel load representing the combustible building contents, ventilation openings and thermal properties of wall lining materials. Fuel load is selected based on a review and suitable realistic fire time-temperature curves were developed. Fire tests were then performed for plasterboard lined light gauge steel framed walls for the developed realistic fire curves. This paper presents the details of the development of suitable realistic building fire curves, and the fire tests using them. It describes the fire performance of tested walls in comparison to the standard fire tests and highlights the differences between them. This research has shown the need to use realistic fire exposures in assessing the fire resistance rating of building elements.