Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Nitrogen fertilizer management for nitrous oxide (N2O) mitigation in intensive corn (Maize) production: an emissions reduction protocol for US Midwest agriculture

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) product of intensive agriculture. Fertilizer nitrogen (N) rate is the best single predictor of N2O emissions in row-crop agriculture in the US Midwest. We use this relationship to propose a transparent, scientifically robust protocol that can be utilized by developers of agricultural offset projects for generating fungible GHG emission reduction credits for the emerging US carbon cap and trade market. By coupling predicted N2O flux with the recently developed maximum return to N (MRTN) approach for determining economically profitable N input rates for optimized crop yield, we provide the basis for incentivizing N2O reductions without affecting yields. The protocol, if widely adopted, could reduce N2O from fertilized row-crop agriculture by more than 50%. Although other management and environmental factors can influence N2O emissions, fertilizer N rate can be viewed as a single unambiguous proxy—a transparent, tangible, and readily manageable commodity. Our protocol addresses baseline establishment, additionality, permanence, variability, and leakage, and provides for producers and other stakeholders the economic and environmental incentives necessary for adoption of agricultural N2O reduction offset projects.

Nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated wheat in Australia : impact of irrigation management

Background and Aims: Irrigation management affects soil water dynamics as well as the soil microbial carbon and nitrogen turnover and potentially the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gasses (GHG). We present a study on the effect of three irrigation treatments on the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from irrigated wheat on black vertisols in South-Eastern Queensland, Australia. Methods: Soil N2O fluxes from wheat were monitored over one season with a fully automated system that measured emissions on a sub-daily basis. Measurements were taken from 3 subplots for each treatment within a randomized split-plot design. Results: Highest N2O emissions occurred after rainfall or irrigation and the amount of irrigation water applied was found to influence the magnitude of these “emission pulses”. Daily N2O emissions varied from -0.74 to 20.46 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1 resulting in seasonal losses ranging from 0.43 to 0.75 kg N2O N ha-1 season -1 for the different irrigation treatments. Emission factors (EF = proportion of N fertilizer emitted as N2O) over the wheat cropping season, uncorrected for background emissions, ranged from 0.2 to 0.4% of total N applied for the different treatments. Highest seasonal N2O emissions were observed in the treatment with the highest irrigation intensity; however, the N2O intensity (N2O emission per crop yield) was highest in the treatment with the lowest irrigation intensity. Conclusions: Our data suggest that timing and amount of irrigation can effectively be used to reduce N2O losses from irrigated agricultural systems; however, in order to develop sustainable mitigation strategies the N2O intensity of a cropping system is an important concept that needs to be taken into account.

IMO technical and operational measures for reduction of emissions of greenhouse gas from ships : perspectives of Asian countries

International shipping is responsible for about 2.7% of the global emissions of CO2. In the absence of proper action, emissions from the maritime sector may grow by 150% to 250% by 2050, in comparison with the level of emissions in 2007. Against this backdrop, the International Maritime Organisation has introduced a mandatory Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) for new ships and the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) for all ships. Some Asian countries have voiced serious reservations about the newly adopted IMO regulations. They have suggested that imposing the same obligations on all countries, irrespective of their economic status, is a serious departure from the Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility, which has always been the cornerstone of international climate change law discourse. Against this backdrop, this article presents a brief overview of the technical and operational measures from the perspective of Asian countries.

Diesel bus emissions of submicrometer particles measured in a tunnel study

The emission factors of a bus fleet consisting of approximately three hundreds diesel powered buses were measured in a tunnel study under well controlled conditions during a two-day monitoring campaign in Brisbane. The number concentration of particles in the size range 0.017-0.7 m was monitored simultaneously by two Scanning Mobility Particle Sizers located at the tunnel’s entrance and exit. The mean value of the number emission factors was found to be (2.44±1.41)×1014 particles km-1. The results are in good agreement with the emission factors determined from steady-state dynamometer testing of 12 buses from the same Brisbane City bus fleet, thus indicating that when carefully designed, both approaches, the dynamometer and on-road studies, can provide comparable results, applicable for the assessment of the effect of traffic emissions on airborne particle pollution.