Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Losing their marbles : syntax-free programming for assessing problem-solving skills

Novice programmers have difficulty developing an algorithmic solution while simultaneously obeying the syntactic constraints of the target programming language. To see how students fare in algorithmic problem solving when not burdened by syntax, we conducted an experiment in which a large class of beginning programmers were required to write a solution to a computational problem in structured English, as if instructing a child, without reference to program code at all. The students produced an unexpectedly wide range of correct, and attempted, solutions, some of which had not occurred to their teachers. We also found that many common programming errors were evident in the natural language algorithms, including failure to ensure loop termination, hardwiring of solutions, failure to properly initialise the computation, and use of unnecessary temporary variables, suggesting that these mistakes are caused by inexperience at thinking algorithmically, rather than difficulties in expressing solutions as program code.

Improvements in sustainable energy and water practice in the food processing industry : an in depth analysis of the manufacture of Ghee at the Butter Producers' Cooperative Federation Limited, Brisbane

This thesis is a documented energy audit and long term study of energy and water reduction in a ghee factory. Global production of ghee exceeds 4 million tonnes annually. The factory in this study refines dairy products by non-traditional centrifugal separation and produces 99.9% pure, canned, crystallised Anhydrous Milk Fat (Ghee). Ghee is traditionally made by batch processing methods. The traditional method is less efficient, than centrifugal separation. An in depth systematic investigation was conducted of each item of major equipment including; ammonia refrigeration, a steam boiler, canning equipment, pumps, heat exchangers and compressed air were all fine-tuned. Continuous monitoring of electrical usage showed that not every initiative worked, others had pay back periods of less than a year. In 1994-95 energy consumption was 6,582GJ and in 2003-04 it was 5,552GJ down 16% for a similar output. A significant reduction in water usage was achieved by reducing the airflow in the refrigeration evaporative condensers to match the refrigeration load. Water usage has fallen 68% from18ML in 1994-95 to 5.78ML in 2003-04. The methods reported in this thesis could be applied to other industries, which have similar equipment, and other ghee manufacturers.

A genetic algorithm for the multi-source and multi-sink minimum vertex cut problem and its applications

We present a new penalty-based genetic algorithm for the multi-source and multi-sink minimum vertex cut problem, and illustrate the algorithm’s usefulness with two real-world applications. It is proved in this paper that the genetic algorithm always produces a feasible solution by exploiting some domain-specific knowledge. The genetic algorithm has been implemented on the example applications and evaluated to show how well it scales as the problem size increases.

The NOURISH randomised control trial : positive feeding practices and food preferences in early childhood - a primary prevention program for childhood obesity

Background Primary prevention of childhood overweight is an international priority. In Australia 20-25% of 2-8 year olds are already overweight. These children are at substantially increased the risk of becoming overweight adults, with attendant increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Early feeding practices determine infant exposure to food (type, amount, frequency) and include responses (eg coercion) to infant feeding behaviour (eg. food refusal). There is correlational evidence linking parenting style and early feeding practices to child eating behaviour and weight status. A focus on early feeding is consistent with the national focus on early childhood as the foundation for life-long health and well being. The NOURISH trial aims to implement and evaluate a community-based intervention to promote early feeding practices that will foster healthy food preferences and intake and preserve the innate capacity to self-regulate food intake in young children. Methods/Design This randomised controlled trial (RCT) aims to recruit 820 first-time mothers and their healthy term infants. A consecutive sample of eligible mothers will be approached postnatally at major maternity hospitals in Brisbane and Adelaide. Initial consent will be for re-contact for full enrolment when the infants are 4-7 months old. Individual mother- infant dyads will be randomised to usual care or the intervention. The intervention will provide anticipatory guidance via two modules of six fortnightly parent education and peer support group sessions, each followed by six months of regular maintenance contact. The modules will commence when the infants are aged 4-7 and 13-16 months to coincide with establishment of solid feeding, and autonomy and independence, respectively. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline, with follow up at nine and 18 months. These will include infant intake (type and amount of foods), food preferences, feeding behaviour and growth and self-reported maternal feeding practices and parenting practices and efficacy. Covariates will include sociodemographics, infant feeding mode and temperament, maternal weight status and weight concern and child care exposure. Discussion Despite the strong rationale to focus on parents’ early feeding practices as a key determinant of child food preferences, intake and self-regulatory capacity, prospective longitudinal and intervention studies are rare. This trial will be amongst to provide Level II evidence regarding the impact of an intervention (commencing prior to age 12 months) on children’s eating patterns and behaviours. Trial Registration: ACTRN12608000056392

Group metacognition during mathematical problem solving

Although various studies have shown that groups are more productive than individuals in complex mathematical problem solving, not all groups work together cooperatively. This review highlights that addressing organisational and cognitive factors to help scaffold group mathematical problem solving is necessary but not sufficient. Successful group problem solving also needs to incorporate metacognitive factors in order for groups to reflect on the organisational and cognitive factors influencing their group mathematical problem solving.

Future directions and perspectives for problem solving research and curriculum development

Since the 1960s, numerous studies on problem solving have revealed the complexity of the domain and the difficulty in translating research findings into practice. The literature suggests that the impact of problem solving research on the mathematics curriculum has been limited. Furthermore, our accumulation of knowledge on the teaching of problem solving is lagging. In this first discussion paper we initially present a sketch of 50 years of research on mathematical problem solving. We then consider some factors that have held back problem solving research over the past decades and offer some directions for how we might advance the field. We stress the urgent need to take into account the nature of problem solving in various arenas of today’s world and to accordingly modernize our perspectives on the teaching and learning of problem solving and of mathematical content through problem solving. Substantive theory development is also long overdue—we show how new perspectives on the development of problem solving expertise can contribute to theory development in guiding the design of worthwhile learning activities. In particular, we explore a models and modeling perspective as an alternative to existing views on problem solving.

Methodologies for investigating relationships between concept development and the development of problem solving abilities

This paper is the second in a pair that Lesh, English, and Fennewald will be presenting at ICME TSG 19 on Problem Solving in Mathematics Education. The first paper describes three shortcomings of past research on mathematical problem solving. The first shortcoming can be seen in the fact that knowledge has not accumulated – in fact it has atrophied significantly during the past decade. Unsuccessful theories continue to be recycled and embellished. One reason for this is that researchers generally have failed to develop research tools needed to reliably observe, document, and assess the development of concepts and abilities that they claim to be important. The second shortcoming is that existing theories and research have failed to make it clear how concept development (or the development of basic skills) is related to the development of problem solving abilities – especially when attention is shifted beyond word problems found in school to the kind of problems found outside of school, where the requisite skills and even the questions to be asked might not be known in advance. The third shortcoming has to do with inherent weaknesses in observational studies and teaching experiments – and the assumption that a single grand theory should be able to describe all of the conceptual systems, instructional systems, and assessment systems that strongly molded and shaped by the same theoretical perspectives that are being used to develop them. Therefore, this paper will describe theoretical perspectives and methodological tools that are proving to be effective to combat the preceding kinds or shortcomings. We refer to our theoretical framework as models & modeling perspectives (MMP) on problem solving (Lesh & Doerr, 2003), learning, and teaching. One of the main methodologies of MMP is called multi-tier design studies (MTD).

Problem solving in a middle school robotics design classroom

Little research has been conducted on how students work when they are required to plan, build and evaluate artefacts in technology rich learning environments such as those supported by tools including flow charts, Labview programming and Lego construction. In this study, activity theory was used as an analytic tool to examine the social construction of meaning. There was a focus on the effect of teachers’ goals and the rules they enacted upon student use of the flow chart planning tool, and the tools of the programming language Labview and Lego construction. It was found that the articulation of a teacher’s goals via rules and divisions of labour helped to form distinct communities of learning and influenced the development of different problem solving strategies. The use of the planning tool flow charting was associated with continuity of approach, integration of problem solutions including appreciation of the nexus between construction and programming, and greater educational transformation. Students who flow charted defined problems in a more holistic way and demonstrated more methodical, insightful and integrated approaches to their use of tools. The findings have implications for teaching in design dominated learning environments.

The problem of measurement indeterminacy in complex neurobiological movement systems

In the study of complex neurobiological movement systems, measurement indeterminacy has typically been overcome by imposing artificial modelling constraints to reduce the number of unknowns (e.g., reducing all muscle, bone and ligament forces crossing a joint to a single vector). However, this approach prevents human movement scientists from investigating more fully the role, functionality and ubiquity of coordinative structures or functional motor synergies. Advancements in measurement methods and analysis techniques are required if the contribution of individual component parts or degrees of freedom of these task-specific structural units is to be established, thereby effectively solving the indeterminacy problem by reducing the number of unknowns. A further benefit of establishing more of the unknowns is that human movement scientists will be able to gain greater insight into ubiquitous processes of physical self-organising that underpin the formation of coordinative structures and the confluence of organismic, environmental and task constraints that determine the exact morphology of these special-purpose devices.

Innovative approaches to intervention for problem drinking

Purpose of review: To critique the recent literature on telephone, correspondence-based, and computerized interventions for alcohol problems, which enhance or substitute for practitioner-delivered treatments. Recent findings: There is an unmet need for screening, assessment and intervention for alcohol problems, in part because of the difficulty in accessing such treatment within the current health care system. Research on the efficacy of correspondence or electronic (for example Internet-based) interventions is beginning to emerge. In the period 2003–2004 we identified nine acceptability or feasibility studies of these approaches and seven efficacy trials covering a wide range of settings. These modes of intervention are acceptable to patients and the public, and with careful planning, can be implemented in a variety of settings. Treatment trials demonstrate the efficacy of these interventions in reducing hazardous drinking by university students, in delaying initiation of heavy drinking in children and adolescents, and, intriguingly, in addressing insomnia among recovering alcoholics. Summary: There is strong support among potential users for alcohol interventions that employ telephone assistance, written correspondence, and the Internet. These new technologies offer the prospect of increasing the reach of interventions for problem drinking and being cost- effective alternatives or supplements to face-to-face health service delivery.