Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

Down the rabbit hole and through the looking glass: A conception of information seeking and searching through a diary study.

Information behaviour (IB) is an area within Library and Information Science that studies the totality of human behaviour in relation to information, both active and passive, along with the explicit and the tacit mental states related to information. This study reports on a recently completed dissertation research that integrates the different models of information behaviours using a diary study where 34 participants maintained a daily journal for two weeks through a web log or paper diary. This resulted in thick descriptions of IB, which were manually analysed using the Grounded Theory method of inquiry, and then cross-referenced through both text-analysis and statistical analysis programs. Among the many key findings of this study, one is the focus this paper: how participants express their feelings of the information seeking process and their mental and affective states related specifically to the sense-making component which co-occurs with almost every other aspect of information behaviour. The paper title – Down the Rabbit Hole and Through the Looking Glass – refers to an observation that some of the participants made in their journals when they searched for, or avoided information, and wrote that they felt like they have fallen into a rabbit hole where nothing made sense, and reported both positive feelings of surprise and amazement, and negative feelings of confusion, puzzlement, apprehensiveness, frustration, stress, ambiguity, and fatigue. The study situates this sense-making aspects of IB within an overarching model of information behaviour that includes IB concepts like monitoring information, encountering information, information seeking and searching, flow, multitasking, information grounds, information horizons, and more, and proposes an integrated model of information behaviour illuminating how these different concepts are interleaved and inter-connected with each other, along with it's implications for information services.

Reverse engineering and finite element analysis of a 3-wheeler automotive structure

Auto rickshaws (3-wheelers) are the most sought after transport among the urban and rural poor in India. The assembly of the vehicle involves assemblies of several major components. The L-angle is the component that connects the front panel with the vehicle floor. Current L-angle part has been observed to experience permanent deformation failure over period of time. This paper studies the effect of the addition of stiffeners on the L-angle to increase the strength of the component. A physical model of the L-angle was reversed engineered and modelled in CAD before static loading analysis were carried out on the model using finite element analysis. The modified L-angle fitted with stiffeners was shown to be able to withstand more load compare to previous design.

The mechanical heterogeneity of the hard callus influences local tissue strains during bone healing : a finite element study based on sheep experiments

During secondary fracture healing, various tissue types including new bone are formed. The local mechanical strains play an important role in tissue proliferation and differentiation. To further our mechanobiological understanding of fracture healing, a precise assessment of local strains is mandatory. Until now, static analyses using Finite Elements (FE) have assumed homogenous material properties. With the recent quantification of both the spatial tissue patterns (Vetter et al., 2010) and the development of elastic modulus of newly formed bone during healing (Manjubala et al., 2009), it is now possible to incorporate this heterogeneity. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of this heterogeneity on the strain patterns at six successive healing stages. The input data of the present work stemmed from a comprehensive cross-sectional study of sheep with a tibial osteotomy (Epari et al., 2006). In our FE model, each element containing bone was described by a bulk elastic modulus, which depended on both the local area fraction and the local elastic modulus of the bone material. The obtained strains were compared with the results of hypothetical FE models assuming homogeneous material properties. The differences in the spatial distributions of the strains between the heterogeneous and homogeneous FE models were interpreted using a current mechanobiological theory (Isakson et al., 2006). This interpretation showed that considering the heterogeneity of the hard callus is most important at the intermediate stages of healing, when cartilage transforms to bone via endochondral ossification.

A material model for flexural crack simulation in reinforced concrete elements using ABAQUS

This paper presents a material model to simulate load induced cracking in Reinforced Concrete (RC) elements in ABAQUS finite element package. Two numerical material models are used and combined to simulate complete stress-strain behaviour of concrete under compression and tension including damage properties. Both numerical techniques used in the present material model are capable of developing the stress-strain curves including strain softening regimes only using ultimate compressive strength of concrete, which is easily and practically obtainable for many of the existing RC structures or those to be built. Therefore, the method proposed in this paper is valuable in assessing existing RC structures in the absence of more detailed test results. The numerical models are slightly modified from the original versions to be comparable with the damaged plasticity model used in ABAQUS. The model is validated using different experiment results for RC beam elements presented in the literature. The results indicate a good agreement with load vs. displacement curve and observed crack patterns.

Probabilistic subgroup identification using Bayesian finite mixture modelling : a case study in Parkinson’s disease phenotype identification

This article explores the use of probabilistic classification, namely finite mixture modelling, for identification of complex disease phenotypes, given cross-sectional data. In particular, if focuses on posterior probabilities of subgroup membership, a standard output of finite mixture modelling, and how the quantification of uncertainty in these probabilities can lead to more detailed analyses. Using a Bayesian approach, we describe two practical uses of this uncertainty: (i) as a means of describing a person’s membership to a single or multiple latent subgroups and (ii) as a means of describing identified subgroups by patient-centred covariates not included in model estimation. These proposed uses are demonstrated on a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), where latent subgroups are identified using multiple symptoms from the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS).

Asymptotic and numerical results for a model of solvent-dependent drug diffusion through polymeric spheres

A model for drug diffusion from a spherical polymeric drug delivery device is considered. The model contains two key features. The first is that solvent diffuses into the polymer, which then transitions from a glassy to a rubbery state. The interface between the two states of polymer is modelled as a moving boundary, whose speed is governed by a kinetic law; the same moving boundary problem arises in the one-phase limit of a Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling. The second feature is that drug diffuses only through the rubbery region, with a nonlinear diffusion coefficient that depends on the concentration of solvent. We analyse the model using both formal asymptotics and numerical computation, the latter by applying a front-fixing scheme with a finite volume method. Previous results are extended and comparisons are made with linear models that work well under certain parameter regimes. Finally, a model for a multi-layered drug delivery device is suggested, which allows for more flexible control of drug release.

A new control-volume finite-element scheme for heterogeneous porous media : application to the drying of softwood

An improved mesoscopic model is presented for simulating the drying of porous media. The aim of this model is to account for two scales simultaneously: the scale of the whole product and the scale of the heterogeneities of the porous medium. The innovation of this method is the utilization of a new mass-conservative scheme based on the Control-Volume Finite-Element (CV-FE) method that partitions the moisture content field over the individual sub-control volumes surrounding each node within the mesh. Although the new formulation has potential for application across a wide range of transport processes in heterogeneous porous media, the focus here is on applying the model to the drying of small sections of softwood consisting of several growth rings. The results conclude that, when compared to a previously published scheme, only the new mass-conservative formulation correctly captures the true moisture content evolution in the earlywood and latewood components of the growth rings during drying.

A Krylov-based finite state projection algorithm for solving the chemical master equation arising in the discrete modelling of biological systems

Biochemical reactions underlying genetic regulation are often modelled as a continuous-time, discrete-state, Markov process, and the evolution of the associated probability density is described by the so-called chemical master equation (CME). However the CME is typically difficult to solve, since the state-space involved can be very large or even countably infinite. Recently a finite state projection method (FSP) that truncates the state-space was suggested and shown to be effective in an example of a model of the Pap-pili epigenetic switch. However in this example, both the model and the final time at which the solution was computed, were relatively small. Presented here is a Krylov FSP algorithm based on a combination of state-space truncation and inexact matrix-vector product routines. This allows larger-scale models to be studied and solutions for larger final times to be computed in a realistic execution time. Additionally the new method computes the solution at intermediate times at virtually no extra cost, since it is derived from Krylov-type methods for computing matrix exponentials. For the purpose of comparison the new algorithm is applied to the model of the Pap-pili epigenetic switch, where the original FSP was first demonstrated. Also the method is applied to a more sophisticated model of regulated transcription. Numerical results indicate that the new approach is significantly faster and extendable to larger biological models.

Effects of surgical joint destabilization on load sharing between ligamentous structures in the thoracic spine : a finite element investigation

Background: In vitro investigations have demonstrated the importance of the ribcage in stabilising the thoracic spine. Surgical alterations of the ribcage may change load-sharing patterns in the thoracic spine. Computer models are used in this study to explore the effect of surgical disruption of the rib-vertebrae connections on ligament load-sharing in the thoracic spine. Methods: A finite element model of a T7-8 motion segment, including the T8 rib, was developed using CT-derived spinal anatomy for the Visible Woman. Both the intact motion segment and the motion segment with four successive stages of destabilization (discectomy and removal of right costovertebral joint, right costotransverse joint and left costovertebral joint) were analysed for a 2000Nmm moment in flexion/extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. Joint rotational moments were compared with existing in vitro data and a detailed investigation of the load sharing between the posterior ligaments carried out. Findings: The simulated motion segment demonstrated acceptable agreement with in vitro data at all stages of destabilization. Under lateral bending and axial rotation, the costovertebral joints were of critical importance in resisting applied moments. In comparison to the intact joint, anterior destabilization increases the total moment contributed by the posterior ligaments. Interpretation: Surgical removal of the costovertebral joints may lead to excessive rotational motion in a spinal joint, increasing the risk of overload and damage to the remaining ligaments. The findings of this study are particularly relevant for surgical procedures involving rib head resection, such as some techniques for scoliosis deformity correction.

A subject-specific model of human buttocks and thighs in a seated posture

Finite element analyses of the human body in seated postures requires digital models capable of providing accurate and precise prediction of the tissue-level response of the body in the seated posture. To achieve such models, the human anatomy must be represented with high fidelity. This information can readily be defined using medical imaging techniques such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) or Computed Tomography (CT). Current practices for constructing digital human models, based on the magnetic resonance (MR) images, in a lying down (supine) posture have reduced the error in the geometric representation of human anatomy relative to reconstructions based on data from cadaveric studies. Nonetheless, the significant differences between seated and supine postures in segment orientation, soft-tissue deformation and soft tissue strain create a need for data obtained in postures more similar to the application posture. In this study, we present a novel method for creating digital human models based on seated MR data. An adult-male volunteer was scanned in a simulated driving posture using a FONAR 0.6T upright MRI scanner with a T1 scanning protocol. To compensate for unavoidable image distortion near the edges of the study, images of the same anatomical structures were obtained in transverse and sagittal planes. Combinations of transverse and sagittal images were used to reconstruct the major anatomical features from the buttocks through the knees, including bone, muscle and fat tissue perimeters, using Solidworks® software. For each MR image, B-splines were created as contours for the anatomical structures of interest, and LOFT commands were used to interpolate between the generated Bsplines. The reconstruction of the pelvis, from MR data, was enhanced by the use of a template model generated in previous work CT images. A non-rigid registration algorithm was used to fit the pelvis template into the MR data. Additionally, MR image processing was conducted to both the left and the right sides of the model due to the intended asymmetric posture of the volunteer during the MR measurements. The presented subject-specific, three-dimensional model of the buttocks and thighs will add value to optimisation cycles in automotive seat development when used in simulating human interaction with automotive seats.

A continuum model of the growth of engineered epidermal skin substitutes

We present a porous medium model of the growth and deterioration of the viable sublayers of an epidermal skin substitute. It consists of five species: cells, intracellular and extracellular calcium, tight junctions, and a hypothesised signal chemical emanating from the stratum corneum. The model is solved numerically in Matlab using a finite difference scheme. Steady state calcium distributions are predicted that agree well with the experimental data. Our model also demonstrates epidermal skin substitute deterioration if the calcium diffusion coefficient is reduced compared to reported values in the literature.

A boundary preserving numerical algorithm for the Wright-Fisher model with mutation

The Wright-Fisher model is an Itô stochastic differential equation that was originally introduced to model genetic drift within finite populations and has recently been used as an approximation to ion channel dynamics within cardiac and neuronal cells. While analytic solutions to this equation remain within the interval [0,1], current numerical methods are unable to preserve such boundaries in the approximation. We present a new numerical method that guarantees approximations to a form of Wright-Fisher model, which includes mutation, remain within [0,1] for all time with probability one. Strong convergence of the method is proved and numerical experiments suggest that this new scheme converges with strong order 1/2. Extending this method to a multidimensional case, numerical tests suggest that the algorithm still converges strongly with order 1/2. Finally, numerical solutions obtained using this new method are compared to those obtained using the Euler-Maruyama method where the Wiener increment is resampled to ensure solutions remain within [0,1].

The Galerkin finite element approximation of the fractional cable equation

The cable equation is one of the most fundamental equations for modeling neuronal dynamics. Cable equations with a fractional order temporal derivative have been introduced to model electrotonic properties of spiny neuronal dendrites. In this paper, the fractional cable equation involving two integro-differential operators is considered. The Galerkin finite element approximations of the fractional cable equation are proposed. The main contribution of this work is outlined as follow: • A semi-discrete finite difference approximation in time is proposed. We prove that the scheme is unconditionally stable, and the numerical solution converges to the exact solution with order O(Δt). • A semi-discrete difference scheme for improving the order of convergence for solving the fractional cable equation is proposed, and the numerical solution converges to the exact solution with order O((Δt)2). • Based on the above semi-discrete difference approximations, Galerkin finite element approximations in space for a full discretization are also investigated. • Finally, some numerical results are given to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.