Vision, functional and cognitive determinants of motor vehicle incidents in older drivers

Background: The proportion of older individuals in the driving population is predicted to increase in the next 50 years. This has important implications for driving safety as abilities which are important for safe driving, such as vision (which accounts for the majority of the sensory input required for driving), processing ability and cognition have been shown to decline with age. The current methods employed for screening older drivers upon re-licensure are also vision based. This study, which investigated social, behavioural and professional aspects involved with older drivers, aimed to determine: (i) if the current visual standards in place for testing upon re-licensure are effective in reducing the older driver fatality rate in Australia; (ii) if the recommended visual standards are actually implemented as part of the testing procedures by Australian optometrists; and (iii) if there are other non-standardised tests which may be better at predicting the on-road incident-risk (including near misses and minor incidents) in older drivers than those tests recommended in the standards. Methods: For the first phase of the study, state-based age- and gender-stratified numbers of older driver fatalities for 2000-2003 were obtained from the Australian Transportation Safety Bureau database. Poisson regression analyses of fatality rates were considered by renewal frequency and jurisdiction (as separate models), adjusting for possible confounding variables of age, gender and year. For the second phase, all practising optometrists in Australia were surveyed on the vision tests they conduct in consultations relating to driving and their knowledge of vision requirements for older drivers. Finally, for the third phase of the study to investigate determinants of on-road incident risk, a stratified random sample of 600 Brisbane residents aged 60 years and were selected and invited to participate using an introductory letter explaining the project requirements. In order to capture the number and type of road incidents which occurred for each participant over 12 months (including near misses and minor incidents), an important component of the prospective research study was the development and validation of a driving diary. The diary was a tool in which incidents that occurred could be logged at that time (or very close in time to which they occurred) and thus, in comparison with relying on participant memory over time, recall bias of incident occurrence was minimised. Association between all visual tests, cognition and scores obtained for non-standard functional tests with retrospective and prospective incident occurrence was investigated. Results: In the first phase,rivers aged 60-69 years had a 33% lower fatality risk (Rate Ratio [RR] = 0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.77) in states with vision testing upon re-licensure compared with states with no vision testing upon re-licensure, however, because the CIs are wide, crossing 1.00, this result should be regarded with caution. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older (RR=1.17, CI 0.64-2.13) did not differ between states with and without license renewal procedures, indicating no apparent benefit in vision testing legislation. For the second phase of the study, nearly all optometrists measured visual acuity (VA) as part of a vision assessment for re-licensing, however, 20% of optometrists did not perform any visual field (VF) testing and only 20% routinely performed automated VF on older drivers, despite the standards for licensing advocating automated VF as part of the vision standard. This demonstrates the need for more effective communication between the policy makers and those responsible for carrying out the standards. It may also indicate that the overall higher driver fatality rate in jurisdictions with vision testing requirements is resultant as the tests recommended by the standards are only partially being conducted by optometrists. Hence a standardised protocol for the screening of older drivers for re-licensure across the nation must be established. The opinions of Australian optometrists with regard to the responsibility of reporting older drivers who fail to meet the licensing standards highlighted the conflict between maintaining patient confidentiality or upholding public safety. Mandatory reporting requirements of those drivers who fail to reach the standards necessary for driving would minimise potential conflict between the patient and their practitioner, and help maintain patient trust and goodwill. The final phase of the PhD program investigated the efficacy of vision, functional and cognitive tests to discriminate between at-risk and safe older drivers. Nearly 80% of the participants experienced an incident of some form over the prospective 12 months, with the total incident rate being 4.65/10 000 km. Sixty-three percent reported having a near miss and 28% had a minor incident. The results from the prospective diary study indicate that the current vision screening tests (VA and VF) used for re-licensure do not accurately predict older drivers who are at increased odds of having an on-road incident. However, the variation in visual measurements of the cohort was narrow, also affecting the results seen with the visual functon questionnaires. Hence a larger cohort with greater variability should be considered for a future study. A slightly lower cognitive level (as measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]) did show an association with incident involvement as did slower reaction time (RT), however the Useful-Field-of-View (UFOV) provided the most compelling results of the study. Cut-off values of UFOV processing (>23.3ms), divided attention (>113ms), selective attention (>258ms) and overall score (moderate/ high/ very high risk) were effective in determining older drivers at increased odds of having any on-road incident and the occurrence of minor incidents. Discussion: The results have shown that for the 60-69 year age-group, there is a potential benefit in testing vision upon licence renewal. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older indicated no benefit in vision testing legislation and suggests a need for inclusion of screening tests which better predict on-road incidents. Although VA is routinely performed by Australian optometrists on older drivers renewing their licence, VF is not. Therefore there is a need for a protocol to be developed and administered which would result in standardised methods conducted throughout the nation for the screening of older drivers upon re-licensure. Communication between the community, policy makers and those conducting the protocol should be maximised. By implementing a standardised screening protocol which incorporates a level of mandatory reporting by the practitioner, the ethical dilemma of breaching patient confidentiality would also be resolved. The tests which should be included in this screening protocol, however, cannot solely be ones which have been implemented in the past. In this investigation, RT, MMSE and UFOV were shown to be better determinants of on-road incidents in older drivers than VA and VF, however, as previously mentioned, there was a lack of variability in visual status within the cohort. Nevertheless, it is the recommendation from this investigation, that subject to appropriate sensitivity and specificity being demonstrated in the future using a cohort with wider variation in vision, functional performance and cognition, these tests of cognition and information processing should be added to the current protocol for the screening of older drivers which may be conducted at licensing centres across the nation.

Velocity and Concentration field of discharge from a boat propeller

Two-stroke outboard boat engines using total loss lubrication deposit a significant proportion of their lubricant and fuel directly into the water. The purpose of this work is to document the velocity and concentration field characteristics of a submerged swirling water jet emanating from a propeller in order to provide information on its fundamental characteristics. Measurements of the velocity and concentration field were performed in a turbulent jet generated by a model boat propeller (0.02 m diameter) operating at 1500 rpm and 3000 rpm. The measurements were carried out in the Zone of Established Flow up to 50 propeller diameters downstream of the propeller. Both the mean axial velocity profile and the mean concentration profile showed self-similarity. Further, the stand deviation growth curve was linear. The effects of propeller speed and dye release location were also investigated.

New routes for the field trip

As with the broader field of education research, most writing on the subject of school excursions and field trips has centred around progressive/humanist concerns for building pupil’s self-esteem and for the development of the ‘whole child’. Such research has also stressed the importance of a broad, grounded, and experiential curriculum - as exemplified by subjects containing these extra-school activities - as well as the possibility of strengthening the relationship between student and teacher. Arguing that this approach to the field trip is both exhausted of ideas and conceptually flawed, this paper proposes some alternate routes into the area for the prospective researcher. First, it is argued that by historicising the subject matter, it can be seen that school excursions are not simply the product of the contemporary humanist desire for diverse and fulfilling educational experiences, rather they can, in part, be traced to eighteenth century beliefs among the English gentry that travel formed a crucial component of a good education, to the advent of an affordable public rail system, and to school tours associated with the Temperance movement. Second, field trips can be understood from within the associated framework of concerns over the governance of tourism and the organisation of disciplinary apparatuses for the production of an educated and regulated citizenry. Far from being a simple learning experience, museums and art galleries form part of a complex of disciplinary and power relations designed to produce a populace with very specific capacities, aspirations and styles of public conduct. Finally, rather than allowing children ‘freedom’ from the constraints of the classroom, on the contrary, through the medium of the field-trip, children can become accustomed to having their activities governed in the broader domain of the generalised community . School excursions thereby constitute an effective tactic through which young people have their conduct managed, and their social and scholastic identities shaped and administered.

Decentred optical axes and aberrations along principal visual field meridians

Suggestions that peripheral imagery may affect the development of refractive error have led to interest in the variation in refraction and aberration across the visual field. It is shown that, if the optical system of the eye is rotationally symmetric about an optical axis which does not coincide with the visual axis, measurements of refraction and aberration made along the horizontal and vertical meridians of the visual field will show asymmetry about the visual axis. The departures from symmetry are modelled for second-order aberrations, refractive components and third-order coma. These theoretical results are compared with practical measurements from the literature. The experimental data support the concept that departures from symmetry about the visual axis in the measurements of crossed-cylinder astigmatism J45 and J180 are largely explicable in terms of a decentred optical axis. Measurements of the mean sphere M suggest, however, that the retinal curvature must differ in the horizontal and vertical meridians.

Printmaking as an expanding field in contemporary art practice : a case study of Japan, Australia and Thailand

This thesis proposes that contemporary printmaking, at its most significant, marks the present through reconstructing pasts and anticipating futures. It argues this through examples in the field, occurring in contexts beyond the Euramerican (Europe and North America). The arguments revolve around how the practice of a number of significant artists in Japan, Australia and Thailand has generated conceptual and formal innovations in printmaking that transcend local histories and conventions, whilst paradoxically, also building upon them and creating new meanings. The arguments do not portray the relations between contemporary and traditional art as necessarily antagonistic but rather, as productively dialectical. Furthermore, the case studies demonstrate that, in the 1980s and 1990s particularly, the studio practice of these printmakers was informed by other visual arts disciplines and reflected postmodern concerns. Departures from convention witnessed in these countries within the Asia-Pacific region shifted the field of the print into a heterogeneous and hybrid realm. The practitioners concerned (especially in Thailand) produced work that was more readily equated with performance and installation art than with printmaking per se. In Japan, the incursion of photography interrupted the decorative cast of printmaking and delivered it from a straightforward, craft-based aesthetic. In Australia, fixed notions of national identity were challenged by print practitioners through deliberate cultural rapprochements and technical contradictions (speaking across old and new languages).However time-honoured print methods were not jettisoned by any case study artists. Their re-alignment of the fundamental attributes of printmaking, in line with materialist formalism, is a core consideration of my arguments. The artists selected for in-depth analysis from these three countries are all innovators whose geographical circumstances and creative praxis drew on local traditions whilst absorbing international trends. In their radical revisionism, they acknowledged the specificity of history and place, conditions of contingency and forces of globalisation. The transformational nature of their work during the late twentieth century connects it to the postmodern ethos and to a broader artistic and cultural nexus than has hitherto been recognised in literature on the print. Emerging from former guild-based practices, they ambitiously conceived their work to be part of a continually evolving visual arts vocabulary. I argue in this thesis that artists from the Asia-Pacific region have historically broken with the hermetic and Euramerican focus that has generally characterised the field. Inadequate documentation and access to print activity outside the dominant centres of critical discourse imply that readings of postmodernism have been too limited in their scope of inquiry. Other locations offer complexities of artistic practice where re-alignments of customary boundaries are often the norm. By addressing innovative activity in Japan, Australia and Thailand, this thesis exposes the need for a more inclusive theoretical framework and wider global reach than currently exists for ‘printmaking’.

Krylov subspace methods for approximating functions of symmetric positive definite matrices with applications to applied statistics and anomalous diffusion

Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Generating rules with predicates, terms and variables from the pruned neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have demonstrated good predictive performance in a wide range of applications. They are, however, not considered sufficient for knowledge representation because of their inability to represent the reasoning process succinctly. This paper proposes a novel methodology Gyan that represents the knowledge of a trained network in the form of restricted first-order predicate rules. The empirical results demonstrate that an equivalent symbolic interpretation in the form of rules with predicates, terms and variables can be derived describing the overall behaviour of the trained ANN with improved comprehensibility while maintaining the accuracy and fidelity of the propositional rules.

Field instrumentation of a water reticulation pipe buried in reactive soil

The loss of valuable water resources due to pipe failure has become a major problem in Australia, especially in areas under high level of water restrictions. Generally pipe failure occurs due to a combination of physical and environmental factors. Stresses induced by shrinking and swelling of reactive soils are one of the major factors affecting the performance of buried pipes. This paper presents the details of a field instrumentation undertaken to monitor the performance of an in-service water reticulation pipe buried in a reactive soil and subjected to seasonal climatic changes.

Near-infrared spectroscopic studies of human scalp hair in a forensic context

Human hair is a relatively inert biopolymer and can survive through natural disasters. It is also found as trace evidence at crime scenes. Previous studies by FTIRMicrospectroscopy and – Attenuated Total Reflectance (ATR) successfully showed that hairs can be matched and discriminated on the basis of gender, race and hair treatment, when interpreted by chemometrics. However, these spectroscopic techniques are difficult to operate at- or on-field. On the other hand, some near infrared spectroscopic (NIRS) instruments equipped with an optical probe, are portable and thus, facilitate the on- or at –field measurements for potential application directly at a crime or disaster scene. This thesis is focused on bulk hair samples, which are free of their roots, and thus, independent of potential DNA contribution for identification. It explores the building of a profile of an individual with the use of the NIRS technique on the basis of information on gender, race and treated hair, i.e. variables which can match and discriminate individuals. The complex spectra collected may be compared and interpreted with the use of chemometrics. These methods can then be used as protocol for further investigations. Water is a common substance present at forensic scenes e.g. at home in a bath, in the swimming pool; it is also common outdoors in the sea, river, dam, puddles and especially during DVI incidents at the seashore after a tsunami. For this reason, the matching and discrimination of bulk hair samples after the water immersion treatment was also explored. Through this research, it was found that Near Infrared Spectroscopy, with the use of an optical probe, has successfully matched and discriminated bulk hair samples to build a profile for the possible application to a crime or disaster scene. Through the interpretation of Chemometrics, such characteristics included Gender and Race. A novel approach was to measure the spectra not only in the usual NIR range (4000 – 7500 cm-1) but also in the Visible NIR (7500 – 12800 cm-1). This proved to be particularly useful in exploring the discrimination of differently coloured hair, e.g. naturally coloured, bleached or dyed. The NIR region is sensitive to molecular vibrations of the hair fibre structure as well as that of the dyes and damage from bleaching. But the Visible NIR region preferentially responds to the natural colourants, the melanin, which involves electronic transitions. This approach was shown to provide improved discrimination between dyed and untreated hair. This thesis is an extensive study of the application of NIRS with the aid of chemometrics, for matching and discrimination of bulk human scalp hair. The work not only indicates the strong potential of this technique in this field but also breaks new ground with the exploration of the use of the NIR and Visible NIR ranges for spectral sampling. It also develops methods for measuring spectra from hair which has been immersed in different water media (sea, river and dam)

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.