Performance of public private partnerships : an evolutionary perspective

PPPs are held to be a powerful way of mobilising private finance and resources to deliver public infrastructure. Theoretically, research into procurement has begun to acknowledge difficulties with the classification and assessment of different types of procurement, particularly those which do not sufficiently acknowledge variety within specific types of procurement methods. This paper advances a theoretical framework based on an evolutionary economic conceptualisation of a routine, which can accommodate the variety evident in procurement projects, in particular PPPs. The paper tests how the various elements of a PPP, as advanced in the theoretical framework, affect performance across 10 case studies. It concludes, that a limited number of elements of a PPP affect their performance, and provides strong evidence for the theoretical model advanced in this paper.

Fast reconstruction of aerodynamic shapes using evolutionary algorithms and virtual Nash strategies in a CFD design environment

This paper compares the performances of two different optimisation techniques for solving inverse problems; the first one deals with the Hierarchical Asynchronous Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms software (HAPEA) and the second is implemented with a game strategy named Nash-EA. The HAPEA software is based on a hierarchical topology and asynchronous parallel computation. The Nash-EA methodology is introduced as a distributed virtual game and consists of splitting the wing design variables - aerofoil sections - supervised by players optimising their own strategy. The HAPEA and Nash-EA software methodologies are applied to a single objective aerodynamic ONERA M6 wing reconstruction. Numerical results from the two approaches are compared in terms of the quality of model and computational expense and demonstrate the superiority of the distributed Nash-EA methodology in a parallel environment for a similar design quality.

Optical absorption and EPR studies on tenorite mineral

Optical absorption and EPR studies of the mineral tenorite, a cupric oxide, which originated from Mexico and contains 54.40 wt% of CuO. EPR spectral results indicate two Cu(II) closely interacting ions to give a d2 type structure. The calculated spin Hamiltonian at Rt and LNT are g = 2.160 and D = 125 G . The intensity of resonance line is not the same in low and high field regions. The optical absorption spectrum is due to Cu(II) which three sets of energies indicating Cu(II) in two independent tetragonal C4v symmetry, in addition to d2 structure of octahedral coordination. The octahedral and tetragonal field parameters are compared with those reported for several other copper containing minerals.

Evolutionary optimisation methods with uncertainty for modern multidisciplinary design in aeronautical engineering

One of the new challenges in aeronautics is combining and accounting for multiple disciplines while considering uncertainties or variability in the design parameters or operating conditions. This paper describes a methodology for robust multidisciplinary design optimisation when there is uncertainty in the operating conditions. The methodology, which is based on canonical evolution algorithms, is enhanced by its coupling with an uncertainty analysis technique. The paper illustrates the use of this methodology on two practical test cases related to Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). These are the ideal candidates due to the multi-physics involved and the variability of missions to be performed. Results obtained from the optimisation show that the method is effective to find useful Pareto non-dominated solutions and demonstrate the use of robust design techniques.

TraSe algorithm : automatic evolutionary morphing of electronic dance music

The TraSe (Transform-Select) algorithm has been developed to investigate the morphing of electronic music through automatically applying a series of deterministic compositional transformations to the source, guided towards a target by similarity metrics. This is in contrast to other morphing techniques such as interpolation or parameters or probabilistic variation. TraSe allows control over stylistic elements of the music through user-defined weighting of numerous compositional transformations. The formal evaluation of TraSe was mostly qualitative and occurred through nine participants completing an online questionnaire. The music generated by TraSe was generally felt to be less coherent than a human composed benchmark but in some cases judged as more creative.

Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Optical absorption, infrared, Raman and EPR spectral studies on natural Iowaite mineral

Natural iowaite, magnesium–ferric oxychloride mineral having light green color originating from Australia has been characterized by EPR, optical, IR, and Raman spectroscopy. The optical spectrum exhibits a number of electronic bands due to both Fe(III) and Mn(II) ions in iowaite. From EPR studies, the g values are calculated for Fe(III) and g and A values for Mn(II). EPR and optical absorption studies confirm that Fe(III) and Mn(II) are in distorted octahedral geometry. The bands that appear both in NIR and Raman spectra are due to the overtones and combinations of water and carbonate molecules. Thus EPR, optical, and Raman spectroscopy have proven most useful for the study of the chemistry of natural iowaite and chemical changes in the mineral.

Evolutionary game design

Abstract—It is easy to create new combinatorial games but more difficult to predict those that will interest human players. We examine the concept of game quality, its automated measurement through self-play simulations, and its use in the evolutionary search for new high-quality games. A general game system called Ludi is described and experiments conducted to test its ability to synthesize and evaluate new games. Results demonstrate the validity of the approach through the automated creation of novel, interesting, and publishable games. Index Terms—Aesthetics, artificial intelligence (AI), combinatorial game, evolutionary search, game design.

Latent variable models in statistical genetics

Understanding the complexities that are involved in the genetics of multifactorial diseases is still a monumental task. In addition to environmental factors that can influence the risk of disease, there is also a number of other complicating factors. Genetic variants associated with age of disease onset may be different from those variants associated with overall risk of disease, and variants may be located in positions that are not consistent with the traditional protein coding genetic paradigm. Latent Variable Models are well suited for the analysis of genetic data. A latent variable is one that we do not directly observe, but which is believed to exist or is included for computational or analytic convenience in a model. This thesis presents a mixture of methodological developments utilising latent variables, and results from case studies in genetic epidemiology and comparative genomics. Epidemiological studies have identified a number of environmental risk factors for appendicitis, but the disease aetiology of this oft thought useless vestige remains largely a mystery. The effects of smoking on other gastrointestinal disorders are well documented, and in light of this, the thesis investigates the association between smoking and appendicitis through the use of latent variables. By utilising data from a large Australian twin study questionnaire as both cohort and case-control, evidence is found for the association between tobacco smoking and appendicitis. Twin and family studies have also found evidence for the role of heredity in the risk of appendicitis. Results from previous studies are extended here to estimate the heritability of age-at-onset and account for the eect of smoking. This thesis presents a novel approach for performing a genome-wide variance components linkage analysis on transformed residuals from a Cox regression. This method finds evidence for a dierent subset of genes responsible for variation in age at onset than those associated with overall risk of appendicitis. Motivated by increasing evidence of functional activity in regions of the genome once thought of as evolutionary graveyards, this thesis develops a generalisation to the Bayesian multiple changepoint model on aligned DNA sequences for more than two species. This sensitive technique is applied to evaluating the distributions of evolutionary rates, with the finding that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We show strong evidence for at least 9 well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least 7 classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. A pattern of enrichment and depletion of genic regions in the profiled segments suggests they are functionally significant, and most likely consist of various functional classes. Furthermore, a method of incorporating alignment characteristics representative of function such as GC content and type of mutation into the segmentation model is developed within this thesis. Evidence of fine-structured segmental variation is presented.

Evolutionary algorithms for sustainable building design

This approach to sustainable design explores the possibility of creating an architectural design process which can iteratively produce optimised and sustainable design solutions. Driven by an evolution process based on genetic algorithms, the system allows the designer to “design the building design generator” rather than to “designs the building”. The design concept is abstracted into a digital design schema, which allows transfer of the human creative vision into the rational language of a computer. The schema is then elaborated into the use of genetic algorithms to evolve innovative, performative and sustainable design solutions. The prioritisation of the project’s constraints and the subsequent design solutions synthesised during design generation are expected to resolve most of the major conflicts in the evaluation and optimisation phases. Mosques are used as the example building typology to ground the research activity. The spatial organisations of various mosque typologies are graphically represented by adjacency constraints between spaces. Each configuration is represented by a planar graph which is then translated into a non-orthogonal dual graph and fed into the genetic algorithm system with fixed constraints and expected performance criteria set to govern evolution. The resultant Hierarchical Evolutionary Algorithmic Design System is developed by linking the evaluation process with environmental assessment tools to rank the candidate designs. The proposed system generates the concept, the seed, and the schema, and has environmental performance as one of the main criteria in driving optimisation.

Optical absorption near infrared and EPR studies of mottramite

Mottramite mineral originated from Tsumeb Corporation Mine, Tsumeb, Otavi, Namibia, is used in the present work. The mineral contains of vanadium and copper to the extent of 22.73% and 16.84% by weight respectively as V2O5 and CuO. An EPR study of sample confirms the presence of Cu(II) with g = 2.2. Optical absorption spectrum of mottramite indicates that Cu(II) is present in rhombic environment. NIR results are due to water fundamentals.