A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

Toward non-invasive detection of concealed energetic materials in-field under ambient-light conditions

Spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) is demonstrated for the non-contact detection of energetic materials concealed within non-transparent, diffusely scattering containers. A modified design of an inverse SORS probe has been developed and tested. The SORS probe has been successfully used for the detection of various energetic substances inside different types of plastic containers. The tests have been successfully conducted under incandescent and fluorescent background lights as well as under daylight conditions, using a non-contact working distance of 6 cm. The interrogation times for the detection of the substances were less than 1 minute in each case, highlighting the suitability of the device for near real-time detection of concealed hazards in the field. The device has potential applications in forensic analysis and homeland security investigations.

Real-time detection of concealed chemical hazards under ambient light conditions using Raman spectroscopy

Current concerns regarding terrorism and international crime highlight the need for new techniques for detecting unknown and hazardous substances. A novel Raman spectroscopy-based technique, spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS), was recently devised for non-invasively probing the contents of diffusely scattering and opaque containers. Here, we demonstrate a modified portable SORS sensor for detecting concealed substances in-field under different background lighting conditions. Samples including explosive precursors, drugs and an organophosphate insecticide (chemical warfare agent surrogate) were concealed inside diffusely scattering packaging including plastic, paper and cloth. Measurements were carried out under incandescent and fluorescent light as well as under daylight to assess the suitability of the probe for different real-life conditions. In each case, it was possible to identify the substances against their reference Raman spectra in less than one minute. The developed sensor has potential for rapid detection of concealed hazardous substances in airports, mail distribution centers and customs checkpoints.

Kaolinite particle sizes in the <2 µM range using laser scattering

The Clay Minerals Society Source Clay kaolinites, Georgia KGa-1 and KGa-2, have been subjected to particle size determinations by 1) conventional sedimentation methods, 2) electron microscopy and image analysis, and 3) laser scattering using improved algorithms for the interaction of light with small particles. Particle shape, size distribution, and crystallinity vary considerably for each kaolinite. Replicate analyses of separated size fractions showed that in the <2 µm range, the sedimentation/centrifugation method of Tanner and Jackson (1947) is reproducible for different kaolinite types and that the calculated size ranges are in reasonable agreement with the size bins estimated from laser scattering. Particle sizes determined by laser scattering must be calculated using Mie theory when the dominant particle size is less than ∼5 µm. Based on this study of two well-known and structurally different kaolinites, laser scattering, with improved data reduction algorithms that include Mie theory, should be considered an internally consistent and rapid technique for clay particle sizing.

Dynamic performance characteristics of an innovative Hybrid Composite Floor Plate System under human-induced loads

This study explored the dynamic performance of an innovative Hybrid Composite Floor Plate System (HCFPS), composed of Polyurethane (PU) core, outer layers of Glass–fibre Reinforced Cement (GRC) and steel laminates at tensile regions, using experimental testing and Finite Element (FE) modelling. Experimental testing included heel impact and walking tests for 3200 mm span HCFPS panels. FE models of the HCFPS were developed using the FE program ABAQUS and validated with experimental results. HCFPS is a light-weight high frequency floor system with excellent damping ratio of 5% (bare floor) due to the central PU core. Parametric studies were conducted using the validated FE models to investigate the dynamic response of the HCFPS and to identify characteristics that influence acceleration response under human induced vibration in service. This vibration performance was compared with recommended acceptable perceptibility limits. The findings of this study show that HCFPS can be used in residential and office buildings as a light-weight floor system, which does not exceed the perceptible thresholds due to human induced vibrations.

Sensitivity of peak positions to flight-path parameters in a deep-inelastic scattering neutron TOF spectrometer

The effects of small changes in flight-path parameters (primary and secondary flight paths, detector angles), and of displacement of the sample along the beam axis away from its ideal position, are examined for an inelastic time-of-flight (TOF) neutron spectrometer, emphasising the deep-inelastic regime. The aim was to develop a rational basis for deciding what measured shifts in the positions of spectral peaks could be regarded as reliable in the light of the uncertainties in the calibrated flight-path parameters. Uncertainty in the length of the primary or secondary flight path has the least effect on the positions of the peaks of H, D and He, which are dominated by the accuracy of the calibration of the detector angles. This aspect of the calibration of a TOF spectrometer therefore demands close attention to achieve reliable outcomes where the position of the peaks is of significant scientific interest and is discussed in detail. The corresponding sensitivities of the position of peak of the Compton profile, J(y), to flight-path parameters and sample position are also examined, focusing on the comparability across experiments of results for H, D and He. We show that positioning the sample to within a few mm of the ideal position is required to ensure good comparability between experiments if data from detectors at high forward angles are to be reliably interpreted.

Dynamic Micromapping of CO2 Sorption in Coal

We have applied X-ray and neutron small-angle scattering techniques (SAXS, SANS, and USANS) to study the interaction between fluids and porous media in the particular case of subcritical CO2 sorption in coal. These techniques are demonstrated to give unique, pore-size-specific insights into the kinetics of CO2 sorption in a wide range of coal pores (nano to meso) and to provide data that may be used to determine the density of the sorbed CO2. We observed densification of the adsorbed CO2 by a factor up to five compared to the free fluid at the same (p, T) conditions. Our results indicate that details of CO2 sorption into coal pores differ greatly between different coals and depend on the amount of mineral matter dispersed in the coal matrix: a purely organic matrix absorbs more CO2 per unit volume than one containing mineral matter, but mineral matter markedly accelerates the sorption kinetics. Small pores are filled preferentially by the invading CO2 fluid and the apparent diffusion coefficients have been estimated to vary in the range from 5 × 10-7 cm2/min to more than 10-4 cm2/min, depending on the CO2 pressure and location on the sample.

Desorption electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry reveals in situ modification of a hindered amine light stabiliser resulting from direct N–OR bond cleavage

Detection and characterisation of structural modifications of a hindered amine light stabiliser (HALS) directly from a polyester-based coil coating have been achieved by desorption electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry (DESI-MS) for the first time. In situ detection is made possible by exposing the coating to an acetone vapour atmosphere prior to analysis. This is a gentle and non-destructive treatment that allows diffusion of analyte to the surface without promoting lateral migration. Using this approach a major structural modification of the HALS TINUVIN®123 (bis(1-octyloxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-4-piperidyl) sebacate) was discovered where one N-ether piperidine moiety (N-OC8H17) is converted to a secondary piperidine (N–H). With the use of 2-dimensional DESI-MS imaging the modification was observed to arise during high curing temperatures (ca. 260 °C) and under simulated physiological conditions (80 °C, full solar spectrum). It is proposed that the secondary piperidine derivative is a result of a highly reactive aminyl radical intermediate produced by N–O homolytic bond cleavage. The nature of the bond cleavage is also suggested by ESR spin-trapping experiments employing α-phenyl-N-tert-butyl nitrone (PBN) in toluene at 80 °C. The presence of a secondary piperidine derivative in situ and the implication of N–OR competing with NO–R bond cleavage suggest an alternative pathway for generation of the nitroxyl radical—an essential requirement in anti-oxidant activity that has not previously been described for the N-ether sub-class of HALS.

Photophysical characterization of light-emitting poly(indenofluorene)s

Time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopy experiments of three poly(2,8-indenofluorene) derivatives bearing different pendant groups are presented. A comparison of the photophysical properties of dilute solutions and thin films provides information on the chemical purity of the materials. The photophysical properties of poly(2,8-indenofluorene)s are correlated with the morphological characteristics of their corresponding films. Wide-angle X-ray scattering experiments reveal the order in these materials at the molecular level. The spectroscopic results confirm the positive impact of a new synthetic approach on the spectral purity of the poly(indenofluorene)s. It is concluded that complete side-chain substitution of the bridgehead carbon atoms C-6 and C-12 in the indenofluorene unit, prior to indenofluorene ring formation, reduces the probability of keto formation. Due to the intrinsic chemical purity of the arylated derivative, identification of a long-delayed spectral feature, other than the known keto band, is possible in the case of thin films. Controlled doping experiments on the arylated derivative with trace amounts of an indenofluorene-monoketone provide quantitative information on the rates of two major photophysical processes, namely, singlet photoluminescence emission and singlet photoluminescence quenching. These results allow the determination of the minimum keto concentration that can affect the intrinsic photophysical properties of this polymer. The data suggest that photoluminescence quenching operates in the doped films according to the Stern-Volmer formalism.

The atmospheric extinction of light

An experiment is described that enables students to understand the properties of atmospheric extinction due to Rayleigh scattering. The experiment requires the use of red, green and blue lasers attached to a traveling microscope or similar device. The laser beams are passed through an artificial atmosphere, made from milky water, at varying depths, before impinging on either a light meter or a photodiode integral to a Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. A plot of measured spectral intensity verses depth reveals the contribution Rayleigh scattering has to the extinction coefficient. For the experiment with the light meter, the extinction coefficient for red, green and blue light in the milky sample of water were 0.27, 0.36 and 0.47 cm-1 respectively and 0.032, 0.037 and 0.092 cm-1 for the Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.