On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Small and medium enterprises’ solution to improve on-site waste management in office building retrofit projects

Office building retrofit projects are increasingly more intensified as existing buildings are aging. At the same time, building owners and occupants are looking for environmentally sustainable products. These retrofit projects usually take place in center business district (CBDs) with on-site waste becoming one of the critical issues. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) carry out most of the work in retrofit projects as subcontractors. Despite their large involvement, they often do not have adequate resources to deal with the specific technical challenges and project risks related to waste. Few research has been done on their performance of waste management operations. This paper identifies characteristics of on-site waste in office building retrofit projects. It examines the specific requirements for contractors to manage waste in the projects before exploring the existing performance of SMEs. By comparing requirements for SMEs and their potential areas for improvement, a framework is established for performance promotion of SMEs in on-site waste management of office building retrofit projects. The paper will raise the consciousness and commitment of SMEs as sub-contractors to waste management. It also explores ways of supporting SMEs for experience accumulation, performance promotion and project culture establishment towards effective and efficient on-site waste management in the growing sector of office building retrofit and upgrade.

Ions in motor vehicle exhaust and their dispersion near busy roads

Measurements in the exhaust plume of a petrol-driven motor car showed that molecular cluster ions of both signs were present in approximately equal amounts. The emission rate increased sharply with engine speed while the charge symmetry remained unchanged. Measurements at the kerbside of nine motorways and five city roads showed that the mean total cluster ion concentration near city roads (603 cm-3) was about one-half of that near motorways (1211 cm-3) and about twice as high as that in the urban background (269 cm-3). Both positive and negative ion concentrations near a motorway showed a significant linear increase with traffic density (R2=0.3 at p<0.05) and correlated well with each other in real time (R2=0.87 at p<0.01). Heavy duty diesel vehicles comprised the main source of ions near busy roads. Measurements were conducted as a function of downwind distance from two motorways carrying around 120-150 vehicles per minute. Total traffic-related cluster ion concentrations decreased rapidly with distance, falling by one-half from the closest approach of 2m to 5m of the kerb. Measured concentrations decreased to background at about 15m from the kerb when the wind speed was 1.3 m s-1, this distance being greater at higher wind speed. The number and net charge concentrations of aerosol particles were also measured. Unlike particles that were carried downwind to distances of a few hundred metres, cluster ions emitted by motor vehicles were not present at more than a few tens of metres from the road.

Project-based organisations : overcoming lack of trust and social networks within small and medium project teams

In sustainable development projects, as well as other types of projects, knowledge transfer is important for the organisations managing the project. Nevertheless, knowledge transfer among employees does not happen automatically and it has been found that the lack of social networks and the lack of trust among employees are the major barriers to effective knowledge transfer. Social network analysis has been recognised as a very important tool for improving knowledge transfer in the project environment. Transfer of knowledge is more effective where it depends heavily on social networks and informal dialogue. Based on the theory of social capital, social capital consists of two parts: conduits network and resource exchange network. This research studies the relationships among performance, the resource exchange network (such as the knowledge network) and the relationship network (such as strong ties network, energy network, and trust network) at the individual and project levels. The aim of this chapter is to present an approach to overcoming the lack of social networks and lack of trust to improve knowledge transfer within project-based organisations. This is to be done by identifying the optimum structure of relationship networks and knowledge networks within small and medium projects. The optimal structure of the relationship networks and knowledge networks is measured using two dimensions: intra-project and inter-project. This chapter also outlines an extensive literature review in the areas of social capital, knowledge management and project management, and presents the conceptual model of the research approach.

Numerical evaluation of pollutant dispersion at a toll plaza based on system dynamics and Computational Fluid Dynamics models

The health of tollbooth workers is seriously threatened by long-term exposure to polluted air from vehicle exhausts. Using traffic data collected at a toll plaza, vehicle movements were simulated by a system dynamics model with different traffic volumes and toll collection procedures. This allowed the average travel time of vehicles to be calculated. A three-dimension Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model was used with a k–ε turbulence model to simulate pollutant dispersion at the toll plaza for different traffic volumes and toll collection procedures. It was shown that pollutant concentration around tollbooths increases as traffic volume increases. Whether traffic volume is low or high (1500 vehicles/h or 2500 vehicles/h), pollutant concentration decreases if electronic toll collection (ETC) is adopted. In addition, pollutant concentration around tollbooths decreases as the proportion of ETC-equipped vehicles increases. However, if the proportion of ETC-equipped vehicles is very low and the traffic volume is not heavy, then pollutant concentration increases as the number of ETC lanes increases.

Project report. A subtropical urban community: Investigating medium to high density residential typologies by Design Charrette

The Centre for Subtropical Design at QUT, in partnership with the Queensland Government and Brisbane City Council, conducts research focused on 'best practice' outcomes for higher density urban living environments in the subtropics through the study of typical urban residential typologies, and urban design. The aim of the research is to inform and illustrate best practice subtropical design principles to policy makers and development industry professionals to stimulate climate-responsive outcomes. The Centre for Subtropical Design recently sought project-specific funding from the Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning (DIP) to investigate residential typologies for sustainable subtropical urban communities, based on transit orientated development principles and outcomes for areas around public transport nodes. A development site within the Fitzgibbon Urban Development Area, and close to a rail and bsu transport corridor, provided a case study location for this project. Four design-led multi-disciplinary creative teams participated in a Design Charrette and have produced concept drawings and propositions on a range of options, or prototypes. Analysis of selected prototypes has been undertaken to determine their environmental, economic and social performance. This Project Report discusses the scope of the project funded by DIP in terms of activities undertaken to date, and deliverables achieved. A subsequent Research Report will discuss the detailed findings of the analysis.

Research report. A subtropical urban community. Investigating medium to high density residential typologies. Findings and recommendations from the Design Charrette

In June 2009 the Centre for Subtropical Design at the Queensland University of Technology conducted a design charrette to research design concepts for liveable subtropical neighbourhoods characterised by higher-density, mixed-use, family orientated housing. Subsequent analysis of the proposed designs evaluated how well these typologies support economic, environmental and social sustainability. The study was led by Ms Rosemary Kennedy, Director of the Centre for Subtropical Design and QUT School of Design Adjunct Professor Peter Richards, Chair of the Centre for Subtropical Design Board and director of Deicke Richards Architects and Urban Designers.

A subtropical urban community. Investigating medium to high density residential typologies. Recommendations from the design charrette

In June 2009 the Centre for Subtropical Design at the Queensland University of Technology conducted a design charrette to research design concepts for liveable subtropical neighbourhoods characterised by higher-density, mixed-use, family orientated housing. Subsequent analysis of the proposed designs evaluated how well these typologies support economic, environmental and social sustainability. The study was led by Ms Rosemary Kennedy, Director of the Centre for Subtropical Design and QUT School of Design Adjunct Professor Peter Richards, Chair of the Centre for Subtropical Design Board and director of Deicke Richards Architects and Urban Designers.

Case study 1 : a subtropical urban community : investigating medium to high density residential typologies by design charrette

The public transport corridor bordering the study site runs NW to SE and is perceived as a source of noise and pollution. The key urban planning strategies adopted by this team were: • Acoustic separation from transport corridor noise source, • A regular grid pattern of urban blocks, and • A clear hierarchy of accessible open space throughout the development.