Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Election campaigns, and television news coverage : the case of the 2001 Australian election

This paper examines the patterns of television news coverage of the political parties, their leaders and the issues they raised during the 2001 Australian federal election campaign. By focusing on some issues, parties and leaders, television has long been argued to constrain voters' evaluations. We find that television news coverage in the 2001 Australian election campaign focused primarily on international issues, especially terrorism and asylum seekers, and on the two major parties - virtually to the exclusion of coverage of the minor parties and their leaders. Within the major party 'two-horse race', television gave substantially more coverage to the leaders than to the parties themselves, thereby sustaining what some have called a 'presidential'-style political contest. John Howard emerged as the winner in the leaders' stakes, garnering more coverage than Labor's Kim Beazley.

News blogs and citizen journalism : new directions for e-journalism

Even for a casual observer of the journalistic industry it is becoming difficult to escape the conclusion that journalism is entering a time of crisis. At the same time that revenues and readerships for traditional publications from newspapers to broadcast news are declining, journalistic content is being overtaken by a flotilla of alternative options ranging from the news satire of The Daily Show in the United States to the citizen journalism of South Korea’s OhmyNews and a myriad of other news blogs and citizen journalism Websites. Worse still, such new competitors with the products of the journalism industry frequently take professional journalists themselves to task where their standards have appeared to have slipped, and are beginning to match the news industry’s incumbents in terms of insight and informational value: recent studies have shown, for example, that avid Daily Show viewers are as if not better informed about the U.S. political process as those who continue to follow mainstream print or television news (see e.g. Fox et al., 2007). The show’s host Jon Stewart – who has consistently maintained his self-description as a comedian, not a journalist – even took the fight directly to the mainstream with his appearance on CNN’s belligerent talk show Crossfire, repeatedly making the point that the show’s polarised and polarising ‘left vs. right’ format was “hurting” politics in America (the show disappeared from CNN’s line-up a few months after Stewart’s appearance; Stewart, 2004). Similarly, news bloggers and citizen journalists have shown persistence and determination both in uncovering political and other scandals, and in highlighting the shortcomings of professional journalism as it investigates and reports on such scandals.

Small firm growth

We review and discuss the literature on small firm growth with an intention to provide a useful vantage point for new research studies regarding this important phenomenon. We first discuss conceptual and methodological issues that represent critical choices for those who research growth and which make it challenging to compare results from previous studies. The substantial review of past research is organized into four sections representing two smaller and two larger literatures. The first of the latter focuses on internal and external drivers of small firm growth. Here we find that much has been learnt and that many valuable generalizations can be made. However, we also conclude that more research of the same kind is unlikely to yield much. While interactive and non-linear effects may be worth pursuing it is unlikely that any new and important growth drivers or strong, linear main effects would be found. The second large literature deals with organizational life-cycles or stages of development. While deservedly criticized for unwarranted determinism and weak empirics this type of approach addresses problems of high practical and also theoretical relevance, and should not be shunned by researchers. We argue that with a change in the fundamental assumptions and improved empirical design, research on the organizational and managerial consequences of growth is an important line of inquiry. With this, we overlap with one of the smaller literatures, namely studies focusing on the effects of growth. We argue that studies too often assume that growth equals success. We advocate instead the use of growth as an intermediary variable that influences more fundamental goals in ways that should be carefully examined rather than assumed. The second small literature distinguishes between different modes or forms of growth, including, e.g., organic vs. acquisition-based growth, and international expansion. We note that modes of growth is an important topic that has been under studied in the growth literature, whereas in other branches of research aspects of it may have been studied intensely, but not primarily from a growth perspective. In the final section we elaborate on ways forward for research on small firm growth. We point at rich opportunities for researchers who look beyond drivers of growth, where growth is viewed as a homogenous phenomenon assumed to unambiguously reflect success, and instead focus on growth as a process and a multi-dimensional phenomenon, as well as on how growth relates to more fundamental outcomes.

Empowerment and role stress in the human interface between the firm and its markets

Frontline employees constitute one of the key interfaces that service organisations have with their markets. Many strategies to enhance the ability of these employees to satisfy the needs of customers have been proposed. Amongst these, empowering employees has been suggested to enhance the customer orientation of the firm and consequently its effectiveness in serving the market. However, the impact of empowerment in service organisations remains somewhat contentious. This paper examines the role of empowerments an organisational service strategy and identifies its consequences for role stress, job satisfaction and the willingness of service employees to serve their customers.

Measuring the success of ABC training in South Africa: A case study in the production of Western Liberal broadcast news values

In 1993 the Australian Broadcasting Corporation was contracted by the Australian Government to assist in the reshaping of the South African Broadcasting Corporation from a state-run broadcaster to a respected and trusted national broadcaster for all people in the newly democratic South Africa. Broadcast journalism training was identified by ABC consultant Bob Wurth as possibly the greatest need for SABC Radio. This thesis examines the ABC's role in South Africa and the effectiveness of its radio journalism training project considering the organisational, structural, cultural and political constraints of the SABC. This thesis will show through interviews and participant observation the difficulties in achieving the production of Western Liberal journalism values at the SABC within the time constraints set by the project funded by the Australian Government and the particular South African morays.

An examination of communication across cultures in news media and at informal/personal levels : with concentration on relations among two South East Asian countries and Australia and those two countries and Germany

In the age of globalisation dominated by mass communication, the flow of information contributes to a big extent to the worldviews of its "global citizens". From this point of view the mass media can be seen as one of the most salient sources of cross-cultural communication. This study investigates mass communication across cultures, focusing on South East Asia (Malaysia and Singapore), Australia and Germany. The centre of attention is the Western media coverage of South East Asia and vice versa. In this context a content analysis of newspapers of the three regions has been conducted. In addition, working practices and conditions of Western foreign correspondents in South East Asia have been examined. Apart from the investigation of inter-cultural media coverage, another focus of attention will be the examination of two levels of communication: The business level, concentrating on issues like e.g. the Asian business etiquette; and the private level, looking into the transition to a different culture from the perspective of Australian and German expatriates. Apart from investigating mass communication across cultures and to provide a written analysis of the findings, a series of radio documentaries in English and in German has been produced. They cover the following issues: Foreign correspondents in South East Asia, the expatriate-lifestyle of Australians and Germans in South East Asia, business etiquette in Asia, student exchange Germany-Asia, image and prejudices East-West and Tourism.

Network structure, knowledge governance, and firm performance : evidence from innovation networks and SMEs in the UK

It is increasingly understood that learning and thus innovation often occurs via highly interactive, iterative, network-based processes. Simultaneously, economic development policy is increasingly focused on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as a means of generating growth, creating a clear research issue in terms of the roles and interactions of government policy, universities, and other sources of knowledge, SMEs, and the creation and dissemination of innovation. This paper analyses the contribution of a range of actors in an SME innovation creation and dissemination framework, reviewing the role of various institutions therein, exploring the contribution of cross-locality networks, and identifying the mechanisms required to operationalise such a framework. Bivariate and multivariate (regression) techniques are employed to investigate both innovation and growth outcomes in relation to these structures; data are derived from the survey responses of over 450 SMEs in the UK. Results are complex and dependent upon the nature of institutions involved, the type of knowledge sought, and the spatial level of the linkages in place but overall highlight the value of cross-locality networks, network governance structures, and certain spillover effects from universities. In general, we find less support for the factors predicting SME growth outcomes than is the case for innovation. Finally, we outline an agenda for further research in the area.

Spatial science news from the School of Urban Development, QUT April, 2010

EDM calibration/comparison at Coombabah,Gold Coast; Survey Staffer wins Vice-Chancellor’s Performance Fund Award; Focus on Surveying Service Teaching; Flexible Spatial Science Minor units; Reminder: Staff and Laboratories moving end of April.

Spatial science news from QUT : industry report : JULY 2010

Real-World Survey practical at Coombabah with GPS surveying; BEE student prizes Evening; Engaging Students in real-world learning at SERF.

“Entrepreneurial management” as a strategic choice in firm behavior : linking it with performance

Establishing the core principals of “entrepreneurial management” within an organization describes a certain strategic choice that affects a company in six dimensions, according to Stevenson (1983). Our aim is to empirically measure entrepreneurial management (it’s existence and degree) and to link this measured strategic choice (for or against) entrepreneurial management with firm performance. Our argument here is that companies that follow core principals of entrepreneurial management should outperform other more administrative firms in certain measures of strategic performance. This paper builds on an empirical investigation published by Brown, Davidson & Wiklund (2001), who have developed and tested a reliable measurement instrument for Stevenson’s definition of “entrepreneurial management” (Stevenson 1983, Stevenson & Jarillo 1990). In the first part of our paper we aim to replicate and to some extent improve this study. In the second part we link the measured degree of “entrepreneurial management” with firm performance. To our knowledge, even so Stevenson’s definition of entrepreneurial management is commonly acknowledged and Brown et al. (2001) developed a reliable instrument to empirically capture this behavioral approach to management, the construct of entrepreneurial management never before has been linked to firm performance in an empirical study. Since most papers on corporate entrepreneurship and firm performance are based on Covin & Slevin’s (1991) or Miller’s (1983) concept of entrepreneurial orientation, we contribute to the literature on corporate entrepreneurship in a novel way, given the fact that the entrepreneurial management dimensions measured in our study can theoretically and empirically be clearly distinguished from the construct of entrepreneurial orientation as defined by Covin & Selvin (1991).