In-vehicle avatars to elicit social response and change driving behaviour

Social and psychological theories have provided a plethora of evidence showing that the physical difficulty to express appropriate social interactions between drivers expresses itself in aggression, selfish driving and anti-social behaviour. Therefore there is a need to improve interactions between drivers and allow clearer collective decision making between them. Personal characteristics and the driving situations play strong roles in driver’s aggression. Our approach is centered around the driving situation as opposed to focusing on personality characteristics. It examines aggression and manipulates contextual variables such as driver’s eye contact exchanges. This paper presents a new unobtrusive in-vehicle system that aims at communicating drivers’ intentions, elicit social responses and increasing mutual awareness. It uses eye gaze as a social cue to affect collective decision making with the view to contribute to safe driving. The authors used a driving simulator to design a case control experiment in which eye gaze movements are conveyed with an avatar. Participants were asked to drive through different types of intersections. An avatar representing the head of the other driver was displayed and driver behaviour was analysed. Significant eye gaze pattern difference where observed when an avatar was displayed. Drivers cautiously refer to the avatar when information is required on the intention of others (e.g. when they do not have the right of way). The majority of participants reported the perception of “being looked at”. The number of glances and time spent gazing at the avatar did not indicate an unsafe distraction by standards of in-vehicle device ergonomic design. Avatars were visually consulted primarily in less demanding driving situations, which underlines their non-distractive nature.

Latent variable models in statistical genetics

Understanding the complexities that are involved in the genetics of multifactorial diseases is still a monumental task. In addition to environmental factors that can influence the risk of disease, there is also a number of other complicating factors. Genetic variants associated with age of disease onset may be different from those variants associated with overall risk of disease, and variants may be located in positions that are not consistent with the traditional protein coding genetic paradigm. Latent Variable Models are well suited for the analysis of genetic data. A latent variable is one that we do not directly observe, but which is believed to exist or is included for computational or analytic convenience in a model. This thesis presents a mixture of methodological developments utilising latent variables, and results from case studies in genetic epidemiology and comparative genomics. Epidemiological studies have identified a number of environmental risk factors for appendicitis, but the disease aetiology of this oft thought useless vestige remains largely a mystery. The effects of smoking on other gastrointestinal disorders are well documented, and in light of this, the thesis investigates the association between smoking and appendicitis through the use of latent variables. By utilising data from a large Australian twin study questionnaire as both cohort and case-control, evidence is found for the association between tobacco smoking and appendicitis. Twin and family studies have also found evidence for the role of heredity in the risk of appendicitis. Results from previous studies are extended here to estimate the heritability of age-at-onset and account for the eect of smoking. This thesis presents a novel approach for performing a genome-wide variance components linkage analysis on transformed residuals from a Cox regression. This method finds evidence for a dierent subset of genes responsible for variation in age at onset than those associated with overall risk of appendicitis. Motivated by increasing evidence of functional activity in regions of the genome once thought of as evolutionary graveyards, this thesis develops a generalisation to the Bayesian multiple changepoint model on aligned DNA sequences for more than two species. This sensitive technique is applied to evaluating the distributions of evolutionary rates, with the finding that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We show strong evidence for at least 9 well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least 7 classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. A pattern of enrichment and depletion of genic regions in the profiled segments suggests they are functionally significant, and most likely consist of various functional classes. Furthermore, a method of incorporating alignment characteristics representative of function such as GC content and type of mutation into the segmentation model is developed within this thesis. Evidence of fine-structured segmental variation is presented.

Electronic telephone directory listings : preferred sampling frame for a population-based study of childhood cancer in Australia

PURPOSE: We report our telephone-based system for selecting community control series appropriate for a complete Australia-wide series of Ewing's sarcoma cases. METHODS: We used electronic directory random sampling to select age-matched controls. The sampling has all listed telephone numbers on an up-dated CD-Rom. RESULTS: 95% of 2245 telephone numbers selected were successfully contacted. The mean number of attempts needed was 1.94, 58% answering at the first attempt. On average, we needed 4.5 contacts per control selected. Calls were more likely to be successful (reach a respondent) when made in the evening (except Saturdays). The overall response rate among contacted telephone numbers was 92.8%. Participation rates among female and male respondents were practically the same. The exclusion of unlisted numbers (13.5% of connected households) and unconnected households (3.7%) led to potential selection bias. However, restricting the case series to listed cases only, plus having external information on the direction of potential bias allow meaningful interpretation of our data. CONCLUSION: Sampling from an electronic directory is convenient, economical and simple, and gives a very good yield of eligible subjects compared to other methods.

What causes childhood leukaemia? Some beliefs of parents of affected children

The theories of parents about the cause of their children's leukaemia have been documented in the course of a case-control study. From a sample of 175 children who were diagnosed as having acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 91.4% of their parents put forward their theories. Some of these theories were related clearly to material that had been published and therefore had some scientific validity. Other theories often had no apparent scientific basis. Persons who are involved in the care of children with leukaemia should be aware of the wide variety of theories that are held by their parents so that they may provide counselling which could be of help in the relief of feelings of anxiety or guilt among the parents. Parents should always be afforded the opportunity to put forward their own theories so that they may be discussed on a rational basis. It is conceivable that some parents might put forward new hypotheses about leukaemogenesis that could be tested scientifically.

Time-dependent analysis of length of stay and mortality due urinary tract infections in ten developing countries : INICC findings

Catheter associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) are a worldwide problem that may lead to increased patient morbidity, cost and mortality.1e3 The literature is divided on whether there are real effects from CAUTI on length of stay or mortality. Platt4 found the costs and mortality risks to be largeyetGraves et al found the opposite.5 A reviewof the published estimates of the extra length of stay showed results between zero and 30 days.6 The differences in estimates may have been caused by the different epidemiological methods applied. Accurately estimating the effects of CAUTI is difficult because it is a time-dependent exposure. This means that standard statistical techniques, such asmatched case-control studies, tend to overestimate the increased hospital stay and mortality risk due to infection. The aim of the study was to estimate excess length of stay andmortality in an intensive care unit (ICU) due to a CAUTI, using a statistical model that accounts for the timing of infection. Data collected from ICU units in lower and middle income countries were used for this analysis.7,8 There has been little research for these settings, hence the need for this paper.

Plantar enthesopathy : thickening of the enthesis is correlated with energy dissipation of the plantar fat pad during walking

Background: The enthesis of the plantar fascia is thought to play an important role in stress dissipation. However, the potential link between entheseal thickening characteristic of enthesopathy and the stress-dissipating properties of the intervening plantar fat pad have not been investigated. Purpose: This study was conducted to identify whether plantar fat pad mechanics explain variance in the thickness of the fascial enthesis in individuals with and without plantar enthesopathy. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: The study population consisted of 9 patients with unilateral plantar enthesopathy and 9 asymptomatic, individually matched controls. The thickness of the enthesis of the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and a matched control limb was acquired using high-resolution ultrasound. The compressive strain of the plantar fat pad during walking was estimated from dynamic lateral radiographs acquired with a multifunction fluoroscopy unit. Peak compressive stress was simultaneously acquired via a pressure platform. Principal viscoelastic parameters were estimated from subsequent stress-strain curves. Results: The symptomatic fascial enthesis (6.7 ± 2.0 mm) was significantly thicker than the asymptomatic enthesis (4.2 ± 0.4 mm), which in turn was thicker than the enthesis (3.3 ± 0.4 mm) of control limbs (P < .05). There was no significant difference in the mean thickness, peak stress, peak strain, or secant modulus of the plantar fat pad between limbs. However, the energy dissipated by the fat pad during loading and unloading was significantly lower in the symptomatic limb (0.55 ± 0.17) when compared with asymptomatic (0.69 ± 0.13) and control (0.70 ± 0.09) limbs (P < .05). The sonographic thickness of the enthesis was correlated with the energy dissipation ratio of the plantar fat pad (r = .72, P < .05), but only in the symptomatic limb. Conclusion: The energy-dissipating properties of the plantar fat pad are associated with the sonograpic appearance of the enthesis in symptomatic limbs, providing a previously unidentified link between the mechanical behavior of the plantar fat pad and enthesopathy.

The effects of ambulance ramping on Emergency Department length of stay and mortality

Background: Ambulance ramping within the Emergency Department (ED) is a common problem both internationally and in Australia. Previous research has focused on various issues associated with ambulance ramping such as access block, ED overcrowding and ambulance bypass. However, limited research has been conducted on ambulance ramping and its effects on patient outcomes. ----- ----- Methods: A case-control design was used to describe, compare and predict patient outcomes of 619 ramped (cases) vs. 1238 non-ramped (control) patients arriving to one ED via ambulance from 1 June 2007 to 31 August 2007. Cases and controls were matched (on a 1:2 basis) on age, gender and presenting problem. Outcome measures included ED length of stay and in-hospital mortality. ----- ----- Results: The median ramp time for all 1857 patients was 11 (IQR 6—21) min. Compared to nonramped patients, ramped patients had significantly longer wait time to be triaged (10 min vs. 4 min). Ramped patients also comprised significantly higher proportions of those access blocked (43% vs. 34%). No significant difference in the proportion of in-hospital deaths was identified (2%vs. 3%). Multivariate analysis revealed that the likelihood of having an ED length of stay greater than eight hours was 34% higher among patients who were ramped (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.06—1.70, p = 0.014). In relation to in-hospital mortality age was the only significant independent predictor of mortality (p < 0.0001). ----- ----- Conclusion: Ambulance ramping is one factor that contributes to prolonged ED length of stay and adds additional strain on ED service provision. The potential for adverse patient outcomes that may occur as a result of ramping warrants close attention by health care service providers.

Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Children with special health care needs : social and learning competence in the early years

The number of children with special health care needs surviving infancy and attending school has been increasing. Due to their health status, these children may be at risk of low social-emotional and learning competencies (e.g., Lightfoot, Mukherjee, & Sloper, 2000; Zehnder, Landolt, Prchal, & Vollrath, 2006). Early social problems have been linked to low levels of academic achievement (Ladd, 2005), inappropriate behaviours at school (Shiu, 2001) and strained teacher-child relationships (Blumberg, Carle, O‘Connor, Moore, & Lippmann, 2008). Early learning difficulties have been associated with mental health problems (Maughan, Rowe, Loeber, & Stouthamer-Loeber, 2003), increased behaviour issues (Arnold, 1997), delinquency (Loeber & Dishion, 1983) and later academic failure (Epstein, 2008). Considering the importance of these areas, the limited research on special health care needs in social-emotional and learning domains is a factor driving this research. The purpose of the current research is to investigate social-emotional and learning competence in the early years for Australian children who have special health care needs. The data which informed this thesis was from Growing up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. This is a national, longitudinal study being conducted by the Commonwealth Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs. The study has a national representative sample, with data collection occurring biennially, in 2004 (Wave 1), 2006 (Wave 2) and 2008 (Wave 3). Growing up in Australia uses a cross-sequential research design involving two cohorts, an Infant Cohort (0-1 at recruitment) and a Kindergarten Cohort (4-5 at recruitment). This study uses the Kindergarten Cohort, for which there were 4,983 children at recruitment. Three studies were conducted to address the objectives of this thesis. Study 1 used Wave 1 data to identify and describe Australian children with special health care needs. Children who identified as having special health care needs through the special health care needs screener were selected. From this, descriptive analyses were run. The results indicate that boys, children with low birth weight and children from families with low levels of maternal education are likely to be in the population of children with special health care needs. Further, these children are likely to be using prescription medications, have poor general health and are likely to have specific condition diagnoses. Study 2 used Wave 1 data to examine differences between children with special health care needs and their peers in social-emotional competence and learning competence prior to school. Children identified by the special health care needs screener were chosen for the case group (n = 650). A matched case control group of peers (n = 650), matched on sex, cultural and linguistic diversity, family socioeconomic position and age, were the comparison group. Social-emotional competence was measured through Social/Emotional Domain scores taken from the Growing up in Australia Outcome Index, with learning competence measured through Learning Domain scores. Results suggest statistically significant differences in scores between the two groups. Children with special health care needs have lower levels of social-emotional and learning competence prior to school compared to their peers. Study 3 used Wave 1 and Wave 2 data to examine the relationship between special health care needs at Wave 1 and social-emotional competence and learning competence at Wave 2, as children started school. The sample for this study consisted of children in the Kindergarten Cohort who had teacher data at Wave 2. Results from multiple regression models indicate that special health care needs prior to school (Wave 1) significantly predicts social-emotional competence and learning competence in the early years of school (Wave 2). These results indicate that having special health care needs prior to school is a risk factor for the social-emotional and learning domains in the early years of school. The results from these studies give valuable insight into Australian children with special health care needs and their social-emotional and learning competence in the early years. The Australia population of children with special health care needs were primarily male children, from families with low maternal education, were likely to be of poor health and taking prescription medications. It was found that children with special health care needs were likely to have lower social-emotional competence and learning competence prior to school compared to their peers. Results indicate that special health care needs prior to school were predictive of lower social-emotional and learning competencies in the early years of school. More research is required into this unique population and their competencies over time. However, the current research provides valuable insight into an under researched 'at risk' population.

Bayesian methodology for genetics of complex diseases

Genetic research of complex diseases is a challenging, but exciting, area of research. The early development of the research was limited, however, until the completion of the Human Genome and HapMap projects, along with the reduction in the cost of genotyping, which paves the way for understanding the genetic composition of complex diseases. In this thesis, we focus on the statistical methods for two aspects of genetic research: phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology and methods for identifying potentially associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-SNP interactions. With regard to phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology, we firstly investigated the effects of different statistical phenotyping approaches on the subsequent analysis. In light of the findings, and the difficulties in validating the estimated phenotype, we proposed two different methods for reconciling phenotypes of different models using Bayesian model averaging as a coherent mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis, the focus is turned to the methods for identifying associated SNPs and SNP interactions. We review the use of Bayesian logistic regression with variable selection for SNP identification and extended the model for detecting the interaction effects for population based case-control studies. In this part of study, we also develop a machine learning algorithm to cope with the large scale data analysis, namely modified Logic Regression with Genetic Program (MLR-GEP), which is then compared with the Bayesian model, Random Forests and other variants of logic regression.

Is adiponectin implicated in venous thromboembolism?

In summary, these results imply that the relationship of adiponectin with lipoproteins is more complex than previously predicted using other methods of lipoprotein fractionation. Higher correlation of adiponectin was shown with large lipoprotein particle size, independent of the apolipoprotein content. Given the small population studied, we could not assess the influence of mild risk factors for venous thrombosis, such as obesity, on the analysis of the results. Thus, we can only state that adiponectin levels appear not to be a strong risk factor for VTE. It is possible that adiponectin deficiency may contribute indirectly to the etiology of VTE by enhancing the inflammatory state. © 2006 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

High-density lipoprotein deficiency and dyslipoproteinemia associated with venous thrombosis in men

Background-Although dyslipoproteinemia is associated with arterial atherothrombosis, little is known about plasma lipoproteins in venous thrombosis patients. Methods and Results-We determined plasma lipoprotein subclass concentrations using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and antigenic levels of apolipoproteins AI and B in blood samples from 49 male venous thrombosis patients and matched controls aged <55 years. Venous thrombosis patients had significantly lower levels of HDL particles, large HDL particles, HDL cholesterol, and apolipoprotein AI and significantly higher levels of LDL particles and small LDL particles. The quartile-based odds ratios for decreased HDL particle and apolipoprotein AI levels in patients compared with controls were 6.5 and 6.0 (95% CI, 2.3 to 19 and 2.1 to 17), respectively. Odds ratios for apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein AI ratio and LDL cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio were 6.3 and 2.7 (95% CI, 1.9 to 21 and 1.1 to 6.5), respectively. When polymorphisms in genes for hepatic lipase, endothelial lipase, and cholesteryl ester transfer protein were analyzed, patients differed significantly from controls in the allelic frequency for the TaqI B1/B2 polymorphism in cholesteryl ester transfer protein, consistent with the observed pattern of lower HDL and higher LDL. Conclusions-Venous thrombosis in men aged <55 years old is associated with dyslipoproteinemia involving lower levels of HDL particles, elevated levels of small LDL particles, and an elevated ratio of apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein AI. This dyslipoproteinemia seems associated with a related cholesteryl ester transfer protein genotype difference. © 2005 American Heart Association, Inc.

Possible genetic predisposition to lymphedema after breast cancer

Background: Known risk factors for secondary lymphedema only partially explain who develops lymphedema following cancer, suggesting that inherited genetic susceptibility may influence risk. Moreover, identification of molecular signatures could facilitate lymphedema risk prediction prior to surgery or lead to effective drug therapies for prevention or treatment. Recent advances in the molecular biology underlying development of the lymphatic system and related congenital disorders implicate a number of potential candidate genes to explore in relation to secondary lymphedema. Methods and Results: We undertook a nested case-control study, with participants who had developed lymphedema after surgical intervention within the first 18 months of their breast cancer diagnosis serving as cases (n=22) and those without lymphedema serving as controls (n=98), identified from a prospective, population-based, cohort study in Queensland, Australia. TagSNPs that covered all known genetic variation in the genes SOX18, VEGFC, VEGFD, VEGFR2, VEGFR3, RORC, FOXC2, LYVE1, ADM and PROX1 were selected for genotyping. Multiple SNPs within three receptor genes, VEGFR2, VEGFR3 and RORC, were associated with lymphedema defined by statistical significance (p<0.05) or extreme risk estimates (OR<0.5 or >2.0). Conclusions: These provocative, albeit preliminary, findings regarding possible genetic predisposition to secondary lymphedema following breast cancer treatment warrant further attention for potential replication using larger datasets.