Application of clustering technique to generating capacity state model for reliability evaluation

Capacity probability models of generating units are commonly used in many power system reliability studies, at hierarchical level one (HLI). Analytical modelling of a generating system with many units or generating units with many derated states in a system, can result in an extensive number of states in the capacity model. Limitations on available memory and computational time of present computer facilities can pose difficulties for assessment of such systems in many studies. A cluster procedure using the nearest centroid sorting method was used for IEEE-RTS load model. The application proved to be very effective in producing a highly similar model with substantially fewer states. This paper presents an extended application of the clustering method to include capacity probability representation. A series of sensitivity studies are illustrated using IEEE-RTS generating system and load models. The loss of load and energy expectations (LOLE, LOEE), are used as indicators to evaluate the application

Disaster resilience and local adaptation capacity in coastal Queensland

The 2011 floods illustrated once again Queensland’s vulnerability to flooding and similar disasters. Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of such events and will have a variety of other impacts. To deal with these impacts governments at all levels need to be prepared and work together. Like the rest of the nation most of the population of the state is located in the coastal areas and these areas are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This paper examines climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Queensland. The aim is increasing local disaster resilience of people and property through fostering coordination between local and state government planning activities in coastal high hazard areas. By increasing the ability of local governments and state agencies to coordinate planning activities, we can help adapt to impacts of climate change. Towards that end, we will look at the ways that these groups currently interact, especially with regard to issues involving uncertainty related to climate change impacts. Through an examination of climate change related activities by Queensland’s coastal local governments and state level planning agencies and how they coordinate their planning activities at different levels we aim to identify the weaknesses of the current planning system in responding to the challenges of climate change adaptation and opportunities for improving the ways we plan and coordinate planning, and make recommendations to improve resilience in advance of disasters so as to help speed up recovery when they occur.

Institutional perspectives on operationalising climate adaptation through planning

Adaptation to climate change is an imperative and an institutional challenge. This paper argues that the operationalisation of climate adaptation is a crucial element of a comprehensive response to the impacts of climate change on human settlements, including major cities and metropolitan areas. In this instance, the operationalisation of climate adaptation refers to climate adaptation becoming institutionally codified and implemented through planning policies and objectives, making it a central tenet of planning governance. This paper has three key purposes. First, it develops conceptual understandings of climate adaptation as an institutional challenge. Second, it identifies the intersection of this problem with planning and examines how planning regimes, as institutions, can better manage stress created by climate change impacts in human settlements. Third, it reports empirical findings focused on how the metro-regional planning regime in Southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia, has institutionally responded to the challenge of operationalising climate adaptation. Drawing on key social scientific theories of institutionalism, it is argued that the success or failure of the SEQ planning regime's response to the imperative of climate adaptation is contingent on its ability to undergo institutional change. It is further argued that a capacity for institutional change is heavily conditioned by the influence of internal and external pathways and barriers to change, which facilitate or hinder change processes. The paper concludes that the SEQ metro-regional planning regime has undergone some institutional change but has not yet undergone change sufficient to fully operationalise climate adaptation as a central tenet of planning governance in the region.

A microscopic simulation model to estimate bus rapid transit station bus capacity

The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) station is the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on BRT line capacity. This study uses microscopic traffic simulation modeling to treat the BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station bus capacity and BRT line bus capacity. First, the simulation model is developed for the limit state scenario and then a statistical model is defined and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics. A field survey was conducted to verify the parameters such as dwell time, clearance time and coefficient of variation of dwell time to obtain relevant station bus capacity. The proposed model for BRT bus capacity provides a better understanding of BRT line capacity and is useful to transit authorities in BRT planning, design and operation.

India's vocational education capacity to support the anticipated economic growth

The buoyancy that the Indian economy experienced between 2000 and 2010, in spite of the global downturn of 2008, is no longer a reality. Growth projections for 2012-13 have been reassessed to 6.5 per cent. This is still higher than most other developed economies of the world (see Figure 1.1), however the growth rate is slowing. The World Bank in its recent forecasts1 expects India’s growth rates not to extend beyond 7.2 % and 7.4 % in the years 2013-14 and 2014-15, respectively. Similarly, the Planning Commission has scaled down the growth target for the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) from 9% to 8%. Different reports note different rates, but the consistent message is that the projection of India’s economy is on a downward trend...

Assessing capacity in the context of testamentary, enduring power of attorney, and advance care directive documents in Australia

Balancing the competing interests of autonomy and protection of individuals is an escalating challenge confronting an ageing Australian population. Legal and medical professionals are increasingly being asked to determine whether individuals are legally capable to make their own testamentary, financial and/or personal/health care decisions. Diseases such as dementia impact upon cognition which necessitates collaboration between the legal and medical professions to satisfactorily assess the effect of such mentally disabling conditions upon legal competency. Terminological and methodological differences exist between the two professions when assessing capacity in this context which subsequently create miscommunication and misunderstanding. Consequently, it is not necessarily a simple solution for a legal professional to seek the opinion of a medical practitioner. Exacerbating the situation is the fact that no consistent and transparent capacity assessment paradigm currently exists in Australia. Assessments are instead being undertaken on an ad hoc basis dependent upon the skill set of the legal and/or medical professionals involved. A qualitative study seeking the views of legal and medical professionals who practise in this area has been conducted. This incorporated a review of the relevant literature and surveys which informed the semi-structured interviews conducted with 10 legal and 20 medical practitioners. Practitioners were asked whether there is a standard approach to assessment and whether national guidelines would assist. The general consensus was that uniform guidelines would be advantageous. The research also canvassed practitioner views as to the state of the relationship between the professions when assessing capacity. Three promising practices have emerged from this research: first, is the need for the development of national guidelines and supporting principles to satisfactorily assess capacity; second, is the possibility of strengthening the relationship between legal and medical professionals to assist in the satisfactory assessment of legal capacity; and third, the need for increased community education.

Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

Analyzing busway station potential capacity under mixed stopping and non-stopping operation

Busway stations are the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses manoeuvring into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on busway capacity. This study uses microscopic simulation to treat the busway station operation and to analyse the relationship between station potential capacity where all buses stop, and Mixed Potential Capacity where there is a mixture of stopping and non-stopping buses. First, the micro simulation technique is used to analyze the All Stopping Buses (ASB) scenario and then statistical model is tuned and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics Subsequently, a mathematical model is developed for Mixed Stopping Buses (MSB) Potential Capacity by introducing different proportions of express (or non-stopping) buses. The proposed models for a busway station bus capacity provide a better understanding of operation and are useful to transit agencies in busway planning, design and operation.

Analysing busway station capacity under mixed stopping and non-stopping operation

Busway stations are the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses manoeuvring into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on busway capacity. This study uses microscopic simulation to treat the busway station operation and to analyse the relationship between station potential capacity where all buses stop, and Mixed Potential Capacity where there is a mixture of stopping and non-stopping buses. First, the micro simulation technique is used to analyze the All Stopping Buses (ASB) scenario and then statistical model is tuned and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics Subsequently, a mathematical model is developed for Mixed Stopping Buses (MSB) Potential Capacity by introducing different proportions of express (or non-stopping) buses. The proposed models for a busway station bus capacity provide a better understanding of operation and are useful to transit agencies in busway planning, design and operation.

Modelling the BRT station capacity and queuing for all stopping busway operation

Stations on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines ordinarily control line capacity because they act as bottlenecks. At stations with passing lanes, congestion may occur when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform stopping lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the station blocking inflow. We contend that, as bus inflow to the station area approaches capacity, queuing will become excessive in a manner similar to operation of a minor movement on an unsignalized intersection. This analogy was used to treat BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station queuing and capacity. We conducted microscopic simulation to study and analyze operating characteristics of the station under near steady state conditions through output variables of capacity, degree of saturation and queuing. In the first of two stages, a mathematical model was developed for all stopping buses potential capacity with bus to bus interference and the model was validated. Secondly, a mathematical model was developed to estimate the relationship between average queue and degree of saturation and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of mean and coefficient of variation of dwell time.

Incorporating complex train paths to an analysis of absolute capacity

Railways are an important mode of transportation. They are however large and complex and their construction, management and operation is time consuming and costly. Evidently planning the current and future activities is vital. Part of that planning process is an analysis of capacity. To determine what volume of traffic can be achieved over time, a variety of railway capacity analysis techniques have been created. A generic analytical approach that incorporates more complex train paths however has yet to be provided. This article provides such an approach. This article extends a mathematical model for determining the theoretical capacity of a railway network. The main contribution of this paper is the modelling of more complex train paths whereby each section can be visited many times in the course of a train’s journey. Three variant models are formulated and then demonstrated in a case study. This article’s numerical investigations have successively shown the applicability of the proposed models and how they may be used to gain insights into system performance.

Advance care planning in stroke: Influence of time on engagement in the process

Purpose Individuals who experience stroke have a higher likelihood of subsequent stroke events, making it imperative to plan for future medical care. In the event of a further serious health event, engaging in the process of advanced care planning (ACP) can help family members and health care professionals (HCPs) make medical decisions for individuals who have lost the capacity to do so. Few studies have explored the views and experiences of patients with stroke about discussing their wishes and preferences for future medical events, and the extent to which stroke HCPs engage in conversations around planning for such events. In this study, we sought to understand how the process of ACP unfolded between HCPs and patients post-stroke. Patients and methods Using grounded theory (GT) methodology, we engaged in direct observation of HCP and patient interactions on an acute stroke unit and two stroke rehabilitation units. Using semi-structured interviews, 14 patients and four HCPs were interviewed directly about the ACP process. Results We found that open and continual ACP conversations were not taking place, patients experienced an apparent lack of urgency to engage in ACP, and HCPs were uncomfortable initiating ACP conversations due to the sensitive nature of the topic. Conclusion In this study, we identified lack of engagement in ACP post-stroke, attributable to patient and HCP factors. This encourages us to look further into the process of ACP in order to develop open communication between the patient with stroke, their families, and stroke HCPs.

Engaging a multiple-track approach to building capacity for 21st Century engineering, opportunities and challenges for rapid curriculum renewal

‘Complexity’ is a term that is increasingly prevalent in conversations about building capacity for 21st Century professional engineers. Society is grappling with the urgent and challenging reality of accommodating seven billion people, meeting needs and innovating lifestyle improvements in ways that do not destroy atmospheric, biological and oceanic systems critical to life. Over the last two decades in particular, engineering educators have been active in attempting to build capacity amongst professionals to deliver ‘sustainable development’ in this rapidly changing global context. However curriculum literature clearly points to a lack of significant progress, with efforts best described as ad hoc and highly varied. Given the limited timeframes for action to curb environmental degradation proposed by scientists and intergovernmental agencies, the authors of this paper propose it is imperative that curriculum renewal towards education for sustainable development proceeds rapidly, systemically, and in a transformational manner. Within this context, the paper discusses the need to consider a multiple track approach to building capacity for 21st Century engineering, including priorities and timeframes for undergraduate and postgraduate curriculum renewal. The paper begins with a contextual discussion of the term complexity and how it relates to life in the 21st Century. The authors then present a whole of system approach for planning and implementing rapid curriculum renewal that addresses the critical roles of several generations of engineering professionals over the next three decades. The paper concludes with observations regarding engaging with this approach in the context of emerging accreditation requirements and existing curriculum renewal frameworks.

Deathbed instructions and the assessment of capacity: A practical perspective

The assessment of capacity in the context of wills and advance care planning is a challenging task for modern practitioners with the increase in mentally disabling conditions, such as acquired brain injury. This challenge is only heightened in the situation where the assessment occurs at the client’s deathbed as there are the added elements of urgency, and emotional upheaval at the impending death of a loved one. This situation poses a minefield of problems a legal practitioner should be aware of, involving not only the assessment process but also potential professional liability issues. This presentation will address the practical considerations a legal professional should take into account when in this situation. We will focus on two discrete situations and the issues arising from them: first, where there has been an acquired brain injury and legal capacity is in question; and second, where a spinal injury has occurred which does not affect capacity, rather results in the inability to use conventional forms of communication to communicate his/her instructions. We will examine these case studies with a view to proposing a best practice model for legal practitioners when assessing capacity in this context.