Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

A database ATP simulated waveforms of shunt reactor switching cases with vacuum breakers on motor circuits

This paper presents a database ATP (Alternative Transient Program) simulated waveforms for shunt reactor switching cases with vacuum breakers in motor circuits following interruption of the starting current. The targeted objective is to provide multiple reignition simulated data for diagnostic and prognostic algorithms development, but also to help ATP users with practical study cases and component data compilation for shunt reactor switching. This method can be easily applied with different data for the different dielectric curves of circuit-breakers and networks. This paper presents design details, discusses some of the available cases and the advantages of such simulated data.

Financial accounting: building accounting knowledge

Financial Accounting: Building Accounting Knowledge is a new textbook written for the first financial accounting subject that a student majoring in accounting is required to study. Based on the successful introductory accounting textbook, 'Accounting: building business skills', this text will provide students and academics with a well written and accessible textbook on the principles of financial accounting, with ample illustrations and applications to business. The text maintains the balance between a 'user' and 'preparer' perspective effectively by integrating real financial information and business decision choices throughout the chapters. Through the use of real company information and financial statements students will quickly appreciate the use of accounting information. The textbook clearly outlines to students how accounting information communicates the financing, operating, and investing activities of a business. The text builds a strong conceptual understanding and develops skills in the application of accounting principles and techniques, providing students with a solid foundation for studying accounting.

Identifying programs to reduce road trauma to A.C.T. motorcyclists

A broad range of motorcycle safety programs and systems exist in Australia and New Zealand. These vary from statewide licensing and training systems run by government licensing and transport agencies to safety programs run in small communities and by individual rider groups. While the effectiveness of licensing and training has been reviewed and recommendations for improvement have been developed (e.g. Haworth & Mulvihill, 2005), little is known about many smaller or innovative programs, and their potential to improve motorcycle safety in the ACT.

Teaching young people first aid skills to reduce injury

Background First aid given immediately after a motor vehicle crash can have considerable benefits. Less understood however is first aid training as a prevention strategy for reducing risk-taking. A first step is to understand whether first aid skills are associated with risk-taking and injury experiences. Further, students and teachers who undergo or deliver such training offer important perspectives about implementation. Aims The research has two aims: (i) to identify whether first aid knowledge is associated with road risk-taking and injury and (ii) to examine teachers’ and students’ experiences of first aid activities within a school-based injury prevention and control program. Method Participants were 173 Year 9s (47% male) who completed a survey which included demographic information, first aid knowledge and risk-taking behaviour and injury experiences. Focus groups were held with 8 teachers who delivered, and 70 students who participated in, a school-based injury prevention and control program. Results Results showed a relationship between greater first aid knowledge and reduced engagement in risk-taking and injury experiences. Both students and teachers reported favourably on first aid however teachers also acknowledged challenges in delivering practical activities. Discussion & Conclusion It appears that first aid can be implemented within the school setting, particularly at the Year 9 level, and that both students and teachers involved in such training identify multiple benefits and positive experiences with first aid training. In addition, the findings suggest that first aid knowledge could be an important part of a prevention program.

Developing within-company information and communication technologies (ICT) innovation diffusion networks : a study of three Australian major contractors

The innovation diffusion and knowledge management literature strongly supports the importance of communities of practice (COP) for enabling knowledge about how to use and adopt innovation initiatives. One of the most powerful tools for innovation diffusion is word-of-mouth wisdom from committed individuals who mentor and support each other. Close proximity for face-to-face interaction is highly effective, however, many organisations are geographically dispersed with projects being virtual linked sub-organisations using ICT to communicate. ICT has also introduced a useful facilitating technology for developing knowledge networks. This paper presents findings from a research program concentrating on ICT innovation diffusion in the Australian construction industry. One way in which ICT diffusion is taking place was found to be through within-company communities of practice. We undertook in-depth unstructured interviews with three of the major 10 to 15 contractors in Australia to discuss their ICT diffusion strategies. We discovered that in all three cases,within company networked communities of practice was a central strategy. Further, effective diffusion of ICT groupware tools can be critical in developing COP where they are geographically dispersed.

Increase in particle number emissions from motor vehicles due to interruption of steady traffic flow

We assess the increase in particle number emissions from motor vehicles driving at steady speed when forced to stop and accelerate from rest. Considering the example of a signalized pedestrian crossing on a two-way single-lane urban road, we use a complex line source method to calculate the total emissions produced by a specific number and mix of light petrol cars and diesel passenger buses and show that the total emissions during a red light is significantly higher than during the time when the light remains green. Replacing two cars with one bus increased the emissions by over an order of magnitude. Considering these large differences, we conclude that the importance attached to particle number emissions in traffic management policies be reassessed in the future.

A study of Australian company responses to email complaints

As businesses and organisations move online, many question how to use Internet communication tools effectively, such as Web sites and electronic mail (Porter, 2001). Where and how should they invest their time and money in technology? This research explores a small part of this broad question, online complaining and electronic customer service. This paper extends prior US-based research of consumer complaints by email (Strauss and Hill, 2001) in several ways. First, it replicates their research in an Australian setting. Second, this research addresses several future research issues that Strauss and Hill (2001) raised. And third, this paper uses diffusion of innovation (Rogers, 1995) to explain some of the results. The results partially support the findings of Strauss and Hill (2001), take a small step towards further investigation of effective email responses and provide practical suggestions for better email customer service.

Self-talk in upper primary school children : its relationship with irrational beliefs, self-esteem and depression

Self-talk, irrational beliefs, self-esteem and depression were measured in a sample of 105 elementary school children in Grades 4 to 7. Sex and grade differences in positive self-talk were found. The pattern of correlation coefficients for positive self-talk supported the substantive position that positive self-talk is positively related to self-esteem and negatively related to irrational beliefs and depression in a non-clinical sample of children. However, the same support was not forthcoming for the reverse relationships for negative self-talk. Therapeutic implications are outlined as are suggestions for future research in the area of children's self-talk.

On analysing and interpreting variability in motor output

A recent article in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport by Chapman et al.1 reported data from an empirical investigation comparing lower extremity joint motions, joint coordination and muscle recruitment in expert and novice cyclists. 3D kinematic and intramuscular electromyographic (EMG) analyses revealed no differences between expert and novice cyclists for normalised joint angles and velocities of the pelvis, hip, knee and ankle. However, significant differences in the strength of sagittal plane kinematics for hip–ankle and knee–ankle joint couplings were reported, with expert cyclists displaying tighter coupling relationships than novice cyclists. Furthermore, significant differences between expert and novice cyclists for all muscle recruitment parameters, except timing of peak EMG amplitude, were also reported.

Vision, functional and cognitive determinants of motor vehicle incidents in older drivers

Background: The proportion of older individuals in the driving population is predicted to increase in the next 50 years. This has important implications for driving safety as abilities which are important for safe driving, such as vision (which accounts for the majority of the sensory input required for driving), processing ability and cognition have been shown to decline with age. The current methods employed for screening older drivers upon re-licensure are also vision based. This study, which investigated social, behavioural and professional aspects involved with older drivers, aimed to determine: (i) if the current visual standards in place for testing upon re-licensure are effective in reducing the older driver fatality rate in Australia; (ii) if the recommended visual standards are actually implemented as part of the testing procedures by Australian optometrists; and (iii) if there are other non-standardised tests which may be better at predicting the on-road incident-risk (including near misses and minor incidents) in older drivers than those tests recommended in the standards. Methods: For the first phase of the study, state-based age- and gender-stratified numbers of older driver fatalities for 2000-2003 were obtained from the Australian Transportation Safety Bureau database. Poisson regression analyses of fatality rates were considered by renewal frequency and jurisdiction (as separate models), adjusting for possible confounding variables of age, gender and year. For the second phase, all practising optometrists in Australia were surveyed on the vision tests they conduct in consultations relating to driving and their knowledge of vision requirements for older drivers. Finally, for the third phase of the study to investigate determinants of on-road incident risk, a stratified random sample of 600 Brisbane residents aged 60 years and were selected and invited to participate using an introductory letter explaining the project requirements. In order to capture the number and type of road incidents which occurred for each participant over 12 months (including near misses and minor incidents), an important component of the prospective research study was the development and validation of a driving diary. The diary was a tool in which incidents that occurred could be logged at that time (or very close in time to which they occurred) and thus, in comparison with relying on participant memory over time, recall bias of incident occurrence was minimised. Association between all visual tests, cognition and scores obtained for non-standard functional tests with retrospective and prospective incident occurrence was investigated. Results: In the first phase,rivers aged 60-69 years had a 33% lower fatality risk (Rate Ratio [RR] = 0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.77) in states with vision testing upon re-licensure compared with states with no vision testing upon re-licensure, however, because the CIs are wide, crossing 1.00, this result should be regarded with caution. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older (RR=1.17, CI 0.64-2.13) did not differ between states with and without license renewal procedures, indicating no apparent benefit in vision testing legislation. For the second phase of the study, nearly all optometrists measured visual acuity (VA) as part of a vision assessment for re-licensing, however, 20% of optometrists did not perform any visual field (VF) testing and only 20% routinely performed automated VF on older drivers, despite the standards for licensing advocating automated VF as part of the vision standard. This demonstrates the need for more effective communication between the policy makers and those responsible for carrying out the standards. It may also indicate that the overall higher driver fatality rate in jurisdictions with vision testing requirements is resultant as the tests recommended by the standards are only partially being conducted by optometrists. Hence a standardised protocol for the screening of older drivers for re-licensure across the nation must be established. The opinions of Australian optometrists with regard to the responsibility of reporting older drivers who fail to meet the licensing standards highlighted the conflict between maintaining patient confidentiality or upholding public safety. Mandatory reporting requirements of those drivers who fail to reach the standards necessary for driving would minimise potential conflict between the patient and their practitioner, and help maintain patient trust and goodwill. The final phase of the PhD program investigated the efficacy of vision, functional and cognitive tests to discriminate between at-risk and safe older drivers. Nearly 80% of the participants experienced an incident of some form over the prospective 12 months, with the total incident rate being 4.65/10 000 km. Sixty-three percent reported having a near miss and 28% had a minor incident. The results from the prospective diary study indicate that the current vision screening tests (VA and VF) used for re-licensure do not accurately predict older drivers who are at increased odds of having an on-road incident. However, the variation in visual measurements of the cohort was narrow, also affecting the results seen with the visual functon questionnaires. Hence a larger cohort with greater variability should be considered for a future study. A slightly lower cognitive level (as measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]) did show an association with incident involvement as did slower reaction time (RT), however the Useful-Field-of-View (UFOV) provided the most compelling results of the study. Cut-off values of UFOV processing (>23.3ms), divided attention (>113ms), selective attention (>258ms) and overall score (moderate/ high/ very high risk) were effective in determining older drivers at increased odds of having any on-road incident and the occurrence of minor incidents. Discussion: The results have shown that for the 60-69 year age-group, there is a potential benefit in testing vision upon licence renewal. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older indicated no benefit in vision testing legislation and suggests a need for inclusion of screening tests which better predict on-road incidents. Although VA is routinely performed by Australian optometrists on older drivers renewing their licence, VF is not. Therefore there is a need for a protocol to be developed and administered which would result in standardised methods conducted throughout the nation for the screening of older drivers upon re-licensure. Communication between the community, policy makers and those conducting the protocol should be maximised. By implementing a standardised screening protocol which incorporates a level of mandatory reporting by the practitioner, the ethical dilemma of breaching patient confidentiality would also be resolved. The tests which should be included in this screening protocol, however, cannot solely be ones which have been implemented in the past. In this investigation, RT, MMSE and UFOV were shown to be better determinants of on-road incidents in older drivers than VA and VF, however, as previously mentioned, there was a lack of variability in visual status within the cohort. Nevertheless, it is the recommendation from this investigation, that subject to appropriate sensitivity and specificity being demonstrated in the future using a cohort with wider variation in vision, functional performance and cognition, these tests of cognition and information processing should be added to the current protocol for the screening of older drivers which may be conducted at licensing centres across the nation.

Friends looking out for friends as an intervention strategy for young adults' risky driving

Young adults are at the greatest risk of experiences road trauma disproportionately to those in other age groups. While the influence of peers is commonly associated with motor vehicle crashes and injury few studies examine whether their influence can be positive. In particular friends may be able to actively intervene to reduce the likelihood of risky driving (e.g. speeding, drink driving or drug driving) and alcohol use. The aim of this paper is to conduct a systematic review on intervening in risky driving behaviour including the situations in which it is likely or unlikely to occur, factors associated with individuals who might or report having intervened and any evaluated programs that make use of such strategies. In addition a study was conducted with 247 first year university students (32% males) to examine whether young adults report engaging in protective behaviour with their peers in South-east Queensland. In particular, if they intervene if their friends are about to drive after drinking, drive after taking illicit drugs or when speeding. It examines any differences in reported likelihood of discouraging such illegal and dangerous behaviour (in the past 12 months prior to the survey). Findings showed that young adults (17-25 years) did indeed report protective behaviour in relation to friends’ drink driving, drug driving, speeding and binge drinking. Conclusions will be drawn regarding important considerations in developing positive strategies and advertising campaigns that encourage positive behaviours (e.g. ‘don’t let mates drink and drive’).

The potential for a web based intervention to improve young adult passenger safety

Young drivers aged 17-24 are consistently overrepresented in motor vehicle crashes. Research has shown that a young driver’s crash risk increases when carrying similarly aged passengers, with fatal crash risk increasing two to three fold with two or more passengers. Recent growth in access to and use of the internet has led to a corresponding increase in the number of web based behaviour change interventions. An increasing body of literature describes the evaluation of web based programs targeting risk behaviours and health issues. Evaluations have shown promise for such strategies with evidence for positive changes in knowledge, attitudes and behaviour. The growing popularity of web based programs is due in part to their wide accessibility, ability for personalised tailoring of intervention messages, and self-direction and pacing of online content. Young people are also highly receptive to the internet and the interactive elements of online programs are particularly attractive. The current study was designed to assess the feasibility for a web based intervention to increase the use of personal and peer protective strategies among young adult passengers. An extensive review was conducted on the development and evaluation of web based programs. Year 12 students were also surveyed about their use of the internet in general and for health and road safety information. All students reported internet access at home or at school, and 74% had searched for road safety information. Additional findings have shown promise for the development of a web based passenger safety program for young adults. Design and methodological issues will be discussed.