An examination of the base rates of post-concussion symptoms : the influence of demographics and depression

Post-concussion syndrome (PCS) is a controversial constellation of cognitive, emotional, and physical symptoms that some patients experience following a mild traumatic brain injury or concussion. PCS-like symptoms are commonly found in individuals with depression, pain, and stress, as well as healthy individuals. This study investigated the base rate of PCS symptoms in a healthy sample of 96 participants and examined the relationship between these symptoms, depression, and sample demographics. PCS symptoms were assessed using the British-Columbia Post-Concussion Symptom Inventory. Depression was measured using the Beck Depression Inventory II. Results demonstrated that: The base rate of PCS was very high; there was a strong positive relationship between depression and PCS; and demographic characteristics were not related to PCS in this sample. These findings are broadly consistent with literature suggesting a significant role for non-neurological factors in the expression of PCS symptomatology. This study adds to the growing body of literature that calls for caution in the clinical interpretation of results from PCS symptom inventories.

Implicit discount rates and fisheries management : is there a relationship?

Fishers are faced with multiple risks, including unpredictability of future catch rates, prices and costs. While the latter are largely beyond the control of fisheries managers, effective fisheries management should reduce uncertainty about future catches. Different management instruments are likely to have different impacts on the risk perception of fishers, and this should manifest itself in their implicit discount rate. Assuming licence and quota values represent the net present value of the flow of expected future profits, then a proxy for the implicit discount rate of vessels in a fishery can be derived by the ratio of the average level of profits to the average licence/quota value. From this, an indication of the risk perception can be derived, assuming higher discount rates reflect higher levels of systematic risk. In this paper, we apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the risk premium implicit in the discount rates for a range of Australian fisheries, and compare this with the set of management instruments in place. We test the assumption that rights based management instruments lower perceptions of risk in fisheries. We find little evidence to support this assumption. although the analysis was based on only limited data.

Coding speech signals at very low rates (below 1 kb/s) with high intelligibility

This thesis presents an original approach to parametric speech coding at rates below 1 kbitsjsec, primarily for speech storage applications. Essential processes considered in this research encompass efficient characterization of evolutionary configuration of vocal tract to follow phonemic features with high fidelity, representation of speech excitation using minimal parameters with minor degradation in naturalness of synthesized speech, and finally, quantization of resulting parameters at the nominated rates. For encoding speech spectral features, a new method relying on Temporal Decomposition (TD) is developed which efficiently compresses spectral information through interpolation between most steady points over time trajectories of spectral parameters using a new basis function. The compression ratio provided by the method is independent of the updating rate of the feature vectors, hence allows high resolution in tracking significant temporal variations of speech formants with no effect on the spectral data rate. Accordingly, regardless of the quantization technique employed, the method yields a high compression ratio without sacrificing speech intelligibility. Several new techniques for improving performance of the interpolation of spectral parameters through phonetically-based analysis are proposed and implemented in this research, comprising event approximated TD, near-optimal shaping event approximating functions, efficient speech parametrization for TD on the basis of an extensive investigation originally reported in this thesis, and a hierarchical error minimization algorithm for decomposition of feature parameters which significantly reduces the complexity of the interpolation process. Speech excitation in this work is characterized based on a novel Multi-Band Excitation paradigm which accurately determines the harmonic structure in the LPC (linear predictive coding) residual spectra, within individual bands, using the concept 11 of Instantaneous Frequency (IF) estimation in frequency domain. The model yields aneffective two-band approximation to excitation and computes pitch and voicing with high accuracy as well. New methods for interpolative coding of pitch and gain contours are also developed in this thesis. For pitch, relying on the correlation between phonetic evolution and pitch variations during voiced speech segments, TD is employed to interpolate the pitch contour between critical points introduced by event centroids. This compresses pitch contour in the ratio of about 1/10 with negligible error. To approximate gain contour, a set of uniformly-distributed Gaussian event-like functions is used which reduces the amount of gain information to about 1/6 with acceptable accuracy. The thesis also addresses a new quantization method applied to spectral features on the basis of statistical properties and spectral sensitivity of spectral parameters extracted from TD-based analysis. The experimental results show that good quality speech, comparable to that of conventional coders at rates over 2 kbits/sec, can be achieved at rates 650-990 bits/sec.

The capture/retention investigation of a gross pollutant trap

A technique was developed to investigate the capture/retention characteristic of a gross pollutant trap (GPT) with fully and partially blocked internal screens. Custom modified spheres of variable density filled with liquid were released into the GPT inlet and monitored at the outlet. The outlet data shows that the capture/retention performances of a GPT with fully blocked screens deteriorate rapidly. During higher flow rates, screen blockages below 68% approach maximum efficiency. At lower flow rates, the high performance trend is reversed and the variation in behaviour of pollutants with different densities becomes more noticeable. Additional experiments with a second upstream inlet configured GPT showed an improved capture/retention performance. It was also noted that the bypass allows the incoming pollutants to escape when the GPT is blocked. This useful feature prevents upstream blockages between cleaning intervals.

Fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction with time-varying flow rates

Fuzzy logic has been applied to control traffic at road junctions. A simple controller with one fixed rule-set is inadequate to minimise delays when traffic flow rate is time-varying and likely to span a wide range. To achieve better control, fuzzy rules adapted to the current traffic conditions are used.

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.

The crash involvement of older drivers is associated with their hazard perception latencies

Hazard perception in driving is the one of the few driving-specific skills associated with crash involvement. However, this relationship has only been examined in studies where the majority of individuals were younger than 65. We present the first data revealing an association between hazard perception and self-reported crash involvement in drivers aged 65 and over. In a sample of 271 drivers, we found that individuals whose mean response time to traffic hazards was slower than 6.68 seconds (the ROC-curve derived pass mark for the test) were 2.32 times (95% CI 1.46, 3.22) more likely to have been involved in a self-reported crash within the previous five years than those with faster response times. This likelihood ratio became 2.37 (95% CI 1.49, 3.28) when driving exposure was controlled for. As a comparison, individuals who failed a test of useful field of view were 2.70 (95% CI 1.44, 4.44) times more likely to crash than those who passed. The hazard perception test and the useful field of view measure accounted for separate variance in crash involvement. These findings indicate that hazard perception testing and training could be potentially useful for road safety interventions for this age group.

Dynamics of pattern writing and erasure in photorefractive lithium niobate for data storage applications

The present rate of technological advance continues to place significant demands on data storage devices. The sheer amount of digital data being generated each year along with consumer expectations, fuels these demands. At present, most digital data is stored magnetically, in the form of hard disk drives or on magnetic tape. The increase in areal density (AD) of magnetic hard disk drives over the past 50 years has been of the order of 100 million times, and current devices are storing data at ADs of the order of hundreds of gigabits per square inch. However, it has been known for some time that the progress in this form of data storage is approaching fundamental limits. The main limitation relates to the lower size limit that an individual bit can have for stable storage. Various techniques for overcoming these fundamental limits are currently the focus of considerable research effort. Most attempt to improve current data storage methods, or modify these slightly for higher density storage. Alternatively, three dimensional optical data storage is a promising field for the information storage needs of the future, offering very high density, high speed memory. There are two ways in which data may be recorded in a three dimensional optical medium; either bit-by-bit (similar in principle to an optical disc medium such as CD or DVD) or by using pages of bit data. Bit-by-bit techniques for three dimensional storage offer high density but are inherently slow due to the serial nature of data access. Page-based techniques, where a two-dimensional page of data bits is written in one write operation, can offer significantly higher data rates, due to their parallel nature. Holographic Data Storage (HDS) is one such page-oriented optical memory technique. This field of research has been active for several decades, but with few commercial products presently available. Another page-oriented optical memory technique involves recording pages of data as phase masks in a photorefractive medium. A photorefractive material is one by which the refractive index can be modified by light of the appropriate wavelength and intensity, and this property can be used to store information in these materials. In phase mask storage, two dimensional pages of data are recorded into a photorefractive crystal, as refractive index changes in the medium. A low-intensity readout beam propagating through the medium will have its intensity profile modified by these refractive index changes and a CCD camera can be used to monitor the readout beam, and thus read the stored data. The main aim of this research was to investigate data storage using phase masks in the photorefractive crystal, lithium niobate (LiNbO3). Firstly the experimental methods for storing the two dimensional pages of data (a set of vertical stripes of varying lengths) in the medium are presented. The laser beam used for writing, whose intensity profile is modified by an amplitudemask which contains a pattern of the information to be stored, illuminates the lithium niobate crystal and the photorefractive effect causes the patterns to be stored as refractive index changes in the medium. These patterns are read out non-destructively using a low intensity probe beam and a CCD camera. A common complication of information storage in photorefractive crystals is the issue of destructive readout. This is a problem particularly for holographic data storage, where the readout beam should be at the same wavelength as the beam used for writing. Since the charge carriers in the medium are still sensitive to the read light field, the readout beam erases the stored information. A method to avoid this is by using thermal fixing. Here the photorefractive medium is heated to temperatures above 150�C; this process forms an ionic grating in the medium. This ionic grating is insensitive to the readout beam and therefore the information is not erased during readout. A non-contact method for determining temperature change in a lithium niobate crystal is presented in this thesis. The temperature-dependent birefringent properties of the medium cause intensity oscillations to be observed for a beam propagating through the medium during a change in temperature. It is shown that each oscillation corresponds to a particular temperature change, and by counting the number of oscillations observed, the temperature change of the medium can be deduced. The presented technique for measuring temperature change could easily be applied to a situation where thermal fixing of data in a photorefractive medium is required. Furthermore, by using an expanded beam and monitoring the intensity oscillations over a wide region, it is shown that the temperature in various locations of the crystal can be monitored simultaneously. This technique could be used to deduce temperature gradients in the medium. It is shown that the three dimensional nature of the recording medium causes interesting degradation effects to occur when the patterns are written for a longer-than-optimal time. This degradation results in the splitting of the vertical stripes in the data pattern, and for long writing exposure times this process can result in the complete deterioration of the information in the medium. It is shown in that simply by using incoherent illumination, the original pattern can be recovered from the degraded state. The reason for the recovery is that the refractive index changes causing the degradation are of a smaller magnitude since they are induced by the write field components scattered from the written structures. During incoherent erasure, the lower magnitude refractive index changes are neutralised first, allowing the original pattern to be recovered. The degradation process is shown to be reversed during the recovery process, and a simple relationship is found relating the time at which particular features appear during degradation and recovery. A further outcome of this work is that the minimum stripe width of 30 ìm is required for accurate storage and recovery of the information in the medium, any size smaller than this results in incomplete recovery. The degradation and recovery process could be applied to an application in image scrambling or cryptography for optical information storage. A two dimensional numerical model based on the finite-difference beam propagation method (FD-BPM) is presented and used to gain insight into the pattern storage process. The model shows that the degradation of the patterns is due to the complicated path taken by the write beam as it propagates through the crystal, and in particular the scattering of this beam from the induced refractive index structures in the medium. The model indicates that the highest quality pattern storage would be achieved with a thin 0.5 mm medium; however this type of medium would also remove the degradation property of the patterns and the subsequent recovery process. To overcome the simplistic treatment of the refractive index change in the FD-BPM model, a fully three dimensional photorefractive model developed by Devaux is presented. This model shows significant insight into the pattern storage, particularly for the degradation and recovery process, and confirms the theory that the recovery of the degraded patterns is possible since the refractive index changes responsible for the degradation are of a smaller magnitude. Finally, detailed analysis of the pattern formation and degradation dynamics for periodic patterns of various periodicities is presented. It is shown that stripe widths in the write beam of greater than 150 ìm result in the formation of different types of refractive index changes, compared with the stripes of smaller widths. As a result, it is shown that the pattern storage method discussed in this thesis has an upper feature size limit of 150 ìm, for accurate and reliable pattern storage.

The hydrodynamic and capture/retention performance of a gross pollutant trap

This research shows that gross pollutant traps (GPTs) continue to play an important role in preventing visible street waste—gross pollutants—from contaminating the environment. The demand for these GPTs calls for stringent quality control and this research provides a foundation to rigorously examine the devices. A novel and comprehensive testing approach to examine a dry sump GPT was developed. The GPT is designed with internal screens to capture gross pollutants—organic matter and anthropogenic litter. This device has not been previously investigated. Apart from the review of GPTs and gross pollutant data, the testing approach includes four additional aspects to this research, which are: field work and an historical overview of street waste/stormwater pollution, calibration of equipment, hydrodynamic studies and gross pollutant capture/retention investigations. This work is the first comprehensive investigation of its kind and provides valuable practical information for the current research and any future work pertaining to the operations of GPTs and management of street waste in the urban environment. Gross pollutant traps—including patented and registered designs developed by industry—have specific internal configurations and hydrodynamic separation characteristics which demand individual testing and performance assessments. Stormwater devices are usually evaluated by environmental protection agencies (EPAs), professional bodies and water research centres. In the USA, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and the Environmental Water Resource Institute (EWRI) are examples of professional and research organisations actively involved in these evaluation/verification programs. These programs largely rely on field evaluations alone that are limited in scope, mainly for cost and logistical reasons. In Australia, evaluation/verification programs of new devices in the stormwater industry are not well established. The current limitations in the evaluation methodologies of GPTs have been addressed in this research by establishing a new testing approach. This approach uses a combination of physical and theoretical models to examine in detail the hydrodynamic and capture/retention characteristics of the GPT. The physical model consisted of a 50% scale model GPT rig with screen blockages varying from 0 to 100%. This rig was placed in a 20 m flume and various inlet and outflow operating conditions were modelled on observations made during the field monitoring of GPTs. Due to infrequent cleaning, the retaining screens inside the GPTs were often observed to be blocked with organic matter. Blocked screens can radically change the hydrodynamic and gross pollutant capture/retention characteristics of a GPT as shown from this research. This research involved the use of equipment, such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) and dye concentration (Komori) probes, which were deployed for the first time in a dry sump GPT. Hence, it was necessary to rigorously evaluate the capability and performance of these devices, particularly in the case of the custom made Komori probes, about which little was known. The evaluation revealed that the Komori probes have a frequency response of up to 100 Hz —which is dependent upon fluid velocities—and this was adequate to measure the relevant fluctuations of dye introduced into the GPT flow domain. The outcome of this evaluation resulted in establishing methodologies for the hydrodynamic measurements and gross pollutant capture/retention experiments. The hydrodynamic measurements consisted of point-based acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) measurements, flow field particle image velocimetry (PIV) capture, head loss experiments and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The gross pollutant capture/retention experiments included the use of anthropogenic litter components, tracer dye and custom modified artificial gross pollutants. Anthropogenic litter was limited to tin cans, bottle caps and plastic bags, while the artificial pollutants consisted of 40 mm spheres with a range of four buoyancies. The hydrodynamic results led to the definition of global and local flow features. The gross pollutant capture/retention results showed that when the internal retaining screens are fully blocked, the capture/retention performance of the GPT rapidly deteriorates. The overall results showed that the GPT will operate efficiently until at least 70% of the screens are blocked, particularly at high flow rates. This important finding indicates that cleaning operations could be more effectively planned when the GPT capture/retention performance deteriorates. At lower flow rates, the capture/retention performance trends were reversed. There is little difference in the poor capture/retention performance between a fully blocked GPT and a partially filled or empty GPT with 100% screen blockages. The results also revealed that the GPT is designed with an efficient high flow bypass system to avoid upstream blockages. The capture/retention performance of the GPT at medium to high inlet flow rates is close to maximum efficiency (100%). With regard to the design appraisal of the GPT, a raised inlet offers a better capture/retention performance, particularly at lower flow rates. Further design appraisals of the GPT are recommended.

The development and validation of two complementary measures of drivers' hazard perception ability

Hazard perception in driving involves a number of different processes. This paper reports the development of two measures designed to separate these processes. A Hazard Perception Test was developed to measure how quickly drivers could anticipate hazards overall, incorporating detection, trajectory prediction, and hazard classification judgements. A Hazard Change Detection Task was developed to measure how quickly drivers can detect a hazard in a static image regardless of whether they consider it hazardous or not. For the Hazard Perception Test, young novices were slower than mid-age experienced drivers, consistent with differences in crash risk, and test performance correlated with scores in pre-existing Hazard Perception Tests. For drivers aged 65 and over, scores on the Hazard Perception Test declined with age and correlated with both contrast sensitivity and a Useful Field of View measure. For the Hazard Change Detection Task, novices responded quicker than the experienced drivers, contrary to crash risk trends, and test performance did not correlate with measures of overall hazard perception. However for drivers aged 65 and over, test performance declined with age and correlated with both hazard perception and Useful Field of View. Overall we concluded that there was support for the validity of the Hazard Perception Test for all ages but the Hazard Change Detection Task might only be appropriate for use with older drivers.

Rates of change : online distribution as disruptive technology in the film industry

Much debate in media and communication studies is based on exaggerated opposition between the digital sublime and the digital abject: overly enthusiastic optimism versus determined pessimism over the potential of new technologies. This inhibits the discipline's claims to provide rigorous insight into industry and social change which is, after all, continuous. Instead of having to decide one way or the other, we need to ask how we study the process of change.This article examines the impact of online distribution in the film industry, particularly addressing the question of rates of change. Are there genuinely new players disrupting the established oligopoly, and if so with what effect? Is there evidence of disruption to, and innovation in, business models? Has cultural change been forced on the incumbents? Outside mainstream Hollywood, where are the new opportunities and the new players? What is the situation in Australia?

Patient education to prevent falls among older hospital inpatients : a randomized controlled trial

Background Falls are a common adverse event during hospitalization of older adults, and few interventions have been shown to prevent then. Methods This study was a 3-group randomized trial to evaluate the efficacy of 2 forms of multimedia patient education compared with usual care for the prevention of in-hospital falls. Older hospital patients (n = 1206) admitted to a mixture of acute (orthopedic, respiratory, and medical) and subacute (geriatric and neurorehabilitation) hospital wards at 2 Australian hospitals were recruited between January 2008 and April 2009. The interventions were a multimedia patient education program based on the health-belief model combined with trained health professional follow-up (complete program), multi-media patient education materials alone (materials only), and usual care (control). Falls data were collected by blinded research assistants by reviewing hospital incident reports, hand searching medical records, and conducting weekly patient interviews. Results Rates of falls per 1000 patient-days did not differ significantly between groups (control, 9.27; materials only, 8.61; and complete program, 7.63). However, there was a significant interaction between the intervention and presence of cognitive impairment. Falls were less frequent among cognitively intact patients in the complete program group (4.01 per 1000 patient-days) than among cognitively intact patients in the materials-only group (8.18 per 1000 patient-days) (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.93]) and control group (8.72 per 1000 patient-days) (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.78). Conclusion Multimedia patient education with trained health professional follow-up reduced falls among patients with intact cognitive function admitted to a range of hospital wards.

Multivariate Markov Process Models for the transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in a hospital ward

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) is a pathogen that continues to be of major concern in hospitals. We develop models and computational schemes based on observed weekly incidence data to estimate MRSA transmission parameters. We extend the deterministic model of McBryde, Pettitt, and McElwain (2007, Journal of Theoretical Biology 245, 470–481) involving an underlying population of MRSA colonized patients and health-care workers that describes, among other processes, transmission between uncolonized patients and colonized health-care workers and vice versa. We develop new bivariate and trivariate Markov models to include incidence so that estimated transmission rates can be based directly on new colonizations rather than indirectly on prevalence. Imperfect sensitivity of pathogen detection is modeled using a hidden Markov process. The advantages of our approach include (i) a discrete valued assumption for the number of colonized health-care workers, (ii) two transmission parameters can be incorporated into the likelihood, (iii) the likelihood depends on the number of new cases to improve precision of inference, (iv) individual patient records are not required, and (v) the possibility of imperfect detection of colonization is incorporated. We compare our approach with that used by McBryde et al. (2007) based on an approximation that eliminates the health-care workers from the model, uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and individual patient data. We apply these models to MRSA colonization data collected in a small intensive care unit at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Australia.

A comprehensive investigation into the hydrodynamic and capture/retention performance of a gross pollutant trap

A novel and comprehensive testing approach to examine the performance of gross pollutant traps (GPTs) was developed. A proprietary GPT with internal screens for capturing gross pollutants—organic matter and anthropogenic litter—was used as a case study. This work is the first investigation of its kind and provides valuable practical information for the design, selection and operation of GPTs and also the management of street waste in an urban environment. It used a combination of physical and theoretical models to examine in detail the hydrodynamic and capture/retention characteristics of the GPT. The results showed that the GPT operated efficiently until at least 68% of the screens were blocked, particularly at high flow rates. At lower flow rates, the high capture/retention performance trend was reversed. It was also found that a raised inlet GPT offered a better capture/retention performance. This finding indicates that cleaning operations could be more effectively planned in conjunction with the deterioration in GPT’s capture/retention performance.