Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Weaving yarns : the lived experience of Indigenous Australians with adult-onset disability in Brisbane

Indigenous Australians have lower levels of health than mainstream Australians and (as far as statistics are able to indicate) higher levels of disability, yet there is little information on Indigenous social and cultural constructions of disability or the Indigenous experience of disability. This research seeks to address these gaps by using an ethnographic approach, couched within a critical medical anthropology (CMA) framework and using the “three bodies” approach, to study the lived experience of urban Indigenous people with an adult-onset disability. The research approach takes account of the debate about the legitimacy of research into Indigenous Australians, Foucault‟s governmentality, and the arguments for different models of disability. The possibility of a cultural model of disability is raised. After a series of initial interviews with contacts who were primarily service providers, more detailed ethnographic research was conducted with three Indigenous women in their homes and with four groups of Indigenous women and men at an Indigenous respite centre. The research involved multiple visits over a period extending more than two years, and the establishment of relationships with all participants. An iterative inductive approach utilising constant comparison (i.e. a form of grounded theory) was adopted, enabling the generation and testing of working hypotheses. The findings point to the lack of an Indigenous construct of disability, related to the holistic construction of health among Indigenous Australians. Shame emerges as a factor which affects the way that Indigenous Australians respond to disability, and which operates in apparent contradiction to expectations of community support. Aspects of shame relate to governmentality, suggesting that self-disciplinary mechanisms have been taken up and support the more obvious exertion of government power. A key finding is the strength of Indigenous identity above and beyond other forms of identification, e.g. as a person with a disability, expressed in forms of resistance by individuals and service providers to the categories and procedures of the mainstream. The implications of a holistic construction of health are discussed in relation to the use of CMA, the interpretation of the “three bodies”, governmentality and resistance. The explanatory value of the concept of sympatricity is discussed, as is the potential value of a cultural model of disability which takes into account the cultural politics of a defiant Indigenous identity.

Static shunt and series compensations of an SMIB system using flying capacitor multilevel inverter

The flying capacitor multilevel inverter (FCMLI) is a multiple voltage level inverter topology intended for high-power and high-voltage operations at low distortion. It uses capacitors, called flying capacitors, to clamp the voltage across the power semiconductor devices. A method for controlling the FCMLI is proposed which ensures that the flying capacitor voltages remain nearly constant using the preferential charging and discharging of these capacitors. A static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) and a static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) based on five-level flying capacitor inverters are proposed. Control schemes for both the FACTS controllers are developed and verified in terms of voltage control, power flow control, and power oscillation damping when installed in a single-machine infinite bus (SMIB) system. Simulation studies are performed using PSCAD/EMTDC to validate the efficacy of the control scheme and the FCMLI-based flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) controllers.

The Eat Smart Study : a randomised controlled trial of a reduced carbohydrate versus a low fat diet for weight loss in obese adolescents

Background Despite the recognition of obesity in young people as a key health issue, there is limited evidence to inform health professionals regarding the most appropriate treatment options. The Eat Smart study aims to contribute to the knowledge base of effective dietary strategies for the clinical management of the obese adolescent and examine the cardiometablic effects of a reduced carbohydrate diet versus a low fat diet. Methods and design Eat Smart is a randomised controlled trial and aims to recruit 100 adolescents over a 2½ year period. Families will be invited to participate following referral by their health professional who has recommended weight management. Participants will be overweight as defined by a body mass index (BMI) greater than the 90th percentile, using CDC 2000 growth charts. An accredited 6-week psychological life skills program ‘FRIENDS for Life’, which is designed to provide behaviour change and coping skills will be undertaken prior to volunteers being randomised to group. The intervention arms include a structured reduced carbohydrate or a structured low fat dietary program based on an individualised energy prescription. The intervention will involve a series of dietetic appointments over 24 weeks. The control group will commence the dietary program of their choice after a 12 week period. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline, week 12 and week 24. The primary outcome measure will be change in BMI z-score. A range of secondary outcome measures including body composition, lipid fractions, inflammatory markers, social and psychological measures will be measured. Discussion The chronic and difficult nature of treating the obese adolescent is increasingly recognised by clinicians and has highlighted the need for research aimed at providing effective intervention strategies, particularly for use in the tertiary setting. A structured reduced carbohydrate approach may provide a dietary pattern that some families will find more sustainable and effective than the conventional low fat dietary approach currently advocated. This study aims to investigate the acceptability and effectiveness of a structured reduced dietary carbohydrate intervention and will compare the outcomes of this approach with a structured low fat eating plan. Trial Registration: The protocol for this study is registered with the International Clinical Trials Registry (ISRCTN49438757).

The relationship between deformity correction and clinical outcomes after thoracoscopic scoliosis surgery : a prospective series of one hundred patients

Prospective clinical case series of 100 patients receiving thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction surgery. The objective was to evaluate the relationship between clinical outcomes of thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis surgery and deformity correction using the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) outcomes instrument questionnaire. The surgical treatment of scoliosis is quantitatively assessed in the clinic using radiographic measures of deformity correction, as well as the rib hump, but it is important to understand the extent to which these quantitative measures correlate with self-reported improvements in patients’ quality of life following surgery. A series of 100 consecutive adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients received a single anterior rod via a thoracoscopic approach at the Mater Children’s Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Patients completed SRS outcomes questionnaires pre-operatively and at 24 months post-operatively. There were 94 females and 6 males with a mean age of 16.1 years. The mean Cobb angle improved from 52º pre-operatively to 25º post-operatively (52%) and the mean rib hump improved from 16º to 8º (51%). The mean total SRS score for the cohort was 99.4/120. None of the deformity related parameters in the multiple regression were significant. However, patients with the lowest post-operative major Cobb angles reported significantly higher SRS scores than those with the highest post-operative Cobb angles, but there was no difference on the basis of rib hump correction. There were no significant differences between patients with either rod fractures or screw-related complications compared to those without complications.

The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However, little evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis gives estimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analyses were used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly with changing strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees of freedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than those from the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analyses performed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.

Facilitating needs based cancer care for people with a chronic disease : evaluation of an intervention using a multi-centre interrupted time series design

Background: Palliative care should be provided according to the individual needs of the patient, caregiver and family, so that the type and level of care provided, as well as the setting in which it is delivered, are dependent on the complexity and severity of individual needs, rather than prognosis or diagnosis. This paper presents a study designed to assess the feasibility and efficacy of an intervention to assist in the allocation of palliative care resources according to need, within the context of a population of people with advanced cancer. ---------- Methods/design: People with advanced cancer and their caregivers completed bi-monthly telephone interviews over a period of up to 18 months to assess unmet needs, anxiety and depression, quality of life, satisfaction with care and service utilisation. The intervention, introduced after at least two baseline phone interviews, involved a) training medical, nursing and allied health professionals at each recruitment site on the use of the Palliative Care Needs Assessment Guidelines and the Needs Assessment Tool: Progressive Disease - Cancer (NAT: PD-C); b) health professionals completing the NAT: PD-C with participating patients approximately monthly for the rest of the study period. Changes in outcomes will be compared pre-and post-intervention.---------- Discussion: The study will determine whether the routine, systematic and regular use of the Guidelines and NAT: PD-C in a range of clinical settings is a feasible and effective strategy for facilitating the timely provision of needs based care.

Hydrogen bonding in proton-transfer compounds of 5-sulfosalicylic acid with a series of aliphatic nitrogen Lewis bases

The crystal structures of the proton-transfer compounds of 5-sulfosalicylic acid (3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonic acid) with the aliphatic nitrogen Lewis bases, hydroxylamine, triethylamine, pyrrolidine, morpholine, N-methylmorpholine and piperazine, viz. hydroxyammonium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate (1), triethylaminium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate (2), pyrrolidinium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate monohydrate (3), morpholinium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate monohydrate (4), N-methylmorpholinium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate monohydrate (5) and piperazine-1,4-diium bis(3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate) hexahydrate (6) have been determined and their comparative structural features and hydrogen-bonding patterns described. Crystals of 4 are triclinic, space group P-1 while the remainder are monoclinic with space group either P21/c (1 - 3) or P21/n (5, 6). Unit cell dimensions and contents are: for 1, a = 5.0156(3), b = 10.5738(6), c = 18.4785(9) Å, β = 96.412(5)o, Z = 4; for 2, a = 8.4998(4), b = 12.3832(6), c = 15.4875(9) Å, β = 102.411(5)o, Z = 4; for 3, a = 6.8755(2), b = 15.5217(4), c = 12.8335(3) Å, β = 92.074(2)o, Z = 4; for 4, a = 6.8397(2), b = 12.9756(5), c = 15.8216(6) Å, α = 90.833(3), β = 95.949(3), γ = 92.505(3)o, Z = 4; for 5, a = 7.0529(3), b = 13.8487(7), c = 15.6448(6) Å, β = 90.190(6)o, Z = 4; for 6, a = 7.0561(2), b = 15.9311(4), c = 12.2102(3) Å, β = 100.858(3)o, Z = 2. The hydrogen bonding generates structures which are either two-dimensional (2 and 5) or three-dimensional (1, 3, 4 and 6). Compound 6 represents the third reported structure of a salt of 5-sulfosalicylic acid having a dicationic piperazine species.

Last shall be first : a field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series

When performances are evaluated they are very often presented in a sequential order. Previous research suggests that the sequential presentation of alternatives may induce systematic biases in the way performances are evaluated. Such a phenomenon has been scarcely studied in economics. Using a large dataset of performance evaluation in the Idol series (N=1522), this paper presents new evidence about the systematic biases in sequential evaluation of performances and the psychological phenomena at the origin of these biases.